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Brant Prewitt

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  • Embracing Waste Management [View article]
    Let me preface my remarks by saying I have been a WM proponent over the years, and I have made that clear with published articles on this site. In fact I have been maintaining a long position in this stock for a number of years with an entry in the low 30s.

    However, though I like the business, I have grown increasingly uncomfortable with the stock. Given an enterprise value in the neighborhood of $34billion, and FCF guided around $1.2 billion, investors are left with only about a 3.5% return at current prices. Virtually all of this FCF is used to fund the dividend leaving little room for share purchases or debt reduction.

    Additionally, as dividends are taxed, real return is more like a flat 3% with little to no growth.
    I may not sell at these levels, and I am certainly not advising a sale to others. But I do think waiting around for a more attractive entry point or diligently seeking out other options may be advisable.
    Jan 21 10:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potbelly Doesn't Look Delicious At Current Levels [View article]
    I appreciate your balanced depiction of this company. I originally dismissed the idea of initiating a position in PBPB in the after market when I found the apparent insider dividend described in the prospectus.
    That info made me question why mgmt and insiders would desire an instant crash payment rather than make all proceeds available to expand store base without debt if the rate of return on new stores is so great?
    Had not reviewed the company since, but I will be tuning in following earnings tomorrow.
    Thank you for a more thorough piece than the prospectus rehashing previously published.
    Nov 11 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Update: Revisiting The Default Risk [View article]
    I have been reviewing my old articles, and have been forced to face just how terribly wrong I've been about NES. Reviewing the last year in total, it's shockingly bad how far from both internal and external expectations and projections NES has been.

    Management EBITDA guidance has been almost as bad as my expectations, and the most recent call has me even more worried given a ramp in hiring despite over capacity in areas in which NES does business.

    Interestingly enough should the sale of TFI fetch what is hoped and used to eliminate secured debt, the lowered D&A and interest expense may make this a potential turnaround play at the right price.

    I hope to see management wait on acquisitions until there is much better utilization of their own currently owned assets and a healthier balance sheet.
    Nov 8 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New And Improved Heckmann: Improved Margins And Growth Paths Going Forward [View article]
    I have been reviewing my old articles, and have been forced to face just how terribly wrong I've been about NES. Reviewing the last year in total, it's shockingly bad how far from both internal and external expectations and projections NES has been.

    Management EBITDA guidance has been almost as bad as my expectations, and the most recent call has me even more worried given a ramp in hiring despite over capacity in areas in which NES does business.

    Interestingly enough, should the sale of TFI fetch what is hoped and used to eliminate secured debt, the lowered D&A and interest expense may make this a potential turnaround play at the right price.

    I hope to see management wait on acquisitions until there is much better utilization of their own currently owned assets and a healthier balance sheet.
    Nov 8 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Update: Revisiting The Default Risk [View article]
    How does the recent credit amendment affect opinions? Comments?
    Oct 1 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: A Sinking Ship With Default Risk [View article]
    I am in fact still long, and have averaged down to a cost basis of 2.92 along the downward move. There is no question I have been wrong or early to this point, but I will remain long at least through the next quarter.

    I am increasingly concerned that management has been so inaccurate with guidance, and I am also concerned that the positive growth picture painted at the time of the Powerfuels acquisition has been slow or non-existent thus far. I believe there is a moderate chance of a looming goodwill write-off in the next quarter or two.

    However, my investment in NES is a relatively small percentage of my overall portfolio and I am not yet so uncomfortable as to prompt exiting the position. I believe much of the negative has been thoroughly reflected in the declining stock price, and with the massive short position the stock could be poised for a sizeable rebound should they prove the ability to reduce debt and generate sufficient cash to service all obligations.

    Unlike the article, I am encouraged by the HAL agreement and do not view it as a hoax. I do not believe HAL would contract a sinking ship to manage a decent sized logistics need for them.

    Though it is not a crystal ball, I am mildly encouraged by recent insider purchases.

    Though I am not yet in panic mode, I do agree that there has been far too much muddy water produced by this water management company, and I will almost certainly not be adding to the position until after the next quarter's results are scrutinized.

    I can certainly understand why some are dubious and selling, but at minimum I believe a more attractive selling price may present itself with a good next quarter, and potentially a short squeeze candidate with patience?

    One thing we know, time will undoubtedly reveal which of us are thoroughly wrong.
    Sep 5 03:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: A Sinking Ship With Default Risk [View article]
    Especially considering he already owns 95 million shares. Why add to that huge position unless you feel your stock is undervalued? Any thoughts from the forum here?
    Sep 3 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: A Sinking Ship With Default Risk [View article]
    It seems that the CEO of NES is comfortable with the direction of the HAL agreement, and is not overly concerned with a looming liquidity crisis... He purchased 900,000 shares around the 2.30-2.31 range.

    Seems unlikely to me he would have spent a touch over 2 million of his own dollars if he thought there would be a huge underperformance again in the September quarter, or Bank calling in its loan in the coming months.
    Sep 3 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuverra Environmental: A Sinking Ship With Default Risk [View article]
    I wonder when the Author will cover, having achieved a 15% or greater profit already on his short position. If the author has real conviction in the liquidity crisis looming as he writes, I'm sure he will be glad to remain short.
    Aug 26 12:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Garden & Pet: 14% Free Cash Flow Yield With Turnaround And Takeout Appeal [View article]
    One of the most thorough articles I've encountered. Thank you for this work.
    Jul 16 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Value In Luxury: Coach Shares Are Significantly Undervalued [View article]
    Ps677

    Thanks and thank you for reading!

    Brant
    Apr 23 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Value In Luxury: Coach Shares Are Significantly Undervalued [View article]
    F&G,
    I confess I am hard to please and at times it makes me a tad over cautious. Sins of omission type things, but what can you say?

    Yes, I'm aware of the shares repurchased through 9 months, but none were actually repurchased during the quarter just reported. The 1.4 billion remaining is the same as the amount after the prior quarter. Shares repurchased so far this year were bought at an average of around $56 per share, but none were bought at the sub $50 opportunity management was given last quarter. I would have loved for them to take advantage of the opportunity to accelerate buybacks at lower prices for long-term longs benefit.

    Overall I certainly agree that the quarter was a quality one so I won't continue belly-aching! Thanks for commenting.

    Brant
    Apr 23 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Value In Luxury: Coach Shares Are Significantly Undervalued [View article]
    I'm pleased with the quarter, but a little disappointed there was no share repurchase activity. I feel that was a missed value enhancing opportunity for long-term shareholders.
    Apr 23 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Value In Luxury: Coach Shares Are Significantly Undervalued [View article]
    RickRaff-
    You make a very valid point concerning the decline in AAPL's stock despite solid earnings and a great balance sheet.
    I would say the decline in AAPL shares is largely unjustified at this point as the P/E net of cash is unbelievably low, and the billions in earnings just keep coming in. AAPL is priced as though it is guaranteed to decline its sales over many quarters (almost for impending collapse it would appear).
    COH stock may admittedly act the same over coming months. No one can predict stock moves accurately. Otherwise there would be many more billionaires out there. However, if you believe as I do that COH can continue to earn approximately what it is earning each year for many years to come, continue to gradually reduce share count, gradually increase the dividend, and possibly even grow net earnings slowly but surely over the years to come via initiatives briefly mentioned in this article, then COH shares appear attractive.
    With this mindset the long term investor can avoid panic or worry attributed to a single bad quarter compared to a new player in the market, and simply be poised to buy more shares should the stock act poorly despite steady business strength.
    As has been quoted before "In the short run the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run it is a weighing machine" (paraphrasing). I am simply aligning my finances with the belief COH will lose very little weight in the next several years and may in fact gain a few pounds.
    Apr 2 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Value In Luxury: Coach Shares Are Significantly Undervalued [View article]
    Most certainly not, but I believe it is a compelling value at the moment.
    Apr 2 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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