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  • Goldman's Gold Analysts Fail To Grasp Reality [View article]
    Good article Raven. You write "the key is timing". Could not agree more. But does that not apply to gold too? A fair graph would go back to well before 2000 where you (conveniently?) elect to start your correlation between gold price and debt limit.
    Apr 16 12:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dogs Of The Dow: Going To The Pound In 2013 [View article]
    Very logical. I did read about the Dogs of the Dow theory several times. But my interests go towad active management mainly, so I promptly forgot about it. Like you however, I do not discount other approaches. Your DGI approach is one of the better ones... somewhat dented by the new taxation but still, better than a loss.
    Jan 6 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond 'The Cliff' -- Investing After The Latest American Elections [View article]
    Todd,

    You are undoubtedly correct. I am not of the opinion that the human development was or will be moving linearly toward bettering our condition. It goes in cycles (typically of 80-100 years, i.e. a long natural human life). But it cannot be denied that the feudal society eventually yielded to the Renaissance, Enlightenment, Industrial Revolution etc. Not that any of these were unmitigated blissful periods and not that we have no reason to worry for our children and grand children. But what's new about that?... Only utopians believe in a worry-free world. We, others, must try to make the best of what we have served on our plates. That's what I am trying to do with my partner for the period that we believe we can forecast. And yes, we could be wrong. But doing nothing is worse... and not in keeping with the way we humans are built.
    Dec 16 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond 'The Cliff' -- Investing After The Latest American Elections [View article]
    Yes Tony... but the world will not come to an end. It will just change. Not unlike it changed several times in the past 2-3000 years. And the human animal, as always, will find a better way to organize its community.

    In what ways will the world change? That's a difficult question with the answer most likely unknowable. But it is worth and may be also fun speculating on it. However that exceeds the frame of the Seeking Alpha contributions which are strictly investment related.
    Dec 15 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond 'The Cliff' -- Investing After The Latest American Elections [View article]
    You are welcome Tony.

    You may also want to revisit an earlier article that I wrote which was taking a different approach but pointed in the same direction. It was titled "2 Thoughts On The Evolution Of S&P500 Earnings" and was published by Seeking Alpha on March 19, 2012:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 15 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond 'The Cliff' -- Investing After The Latest American Elections [View article]
    Tony:

    All your points are well taken. Although the markets have been driven by politics lately, I am trying hard to be "un-political" here and to see the reality from an investing point of view. Yes, there are "labor holders" turned entrepreneurs who will be hit hard and undeservedly so. But it is also true that too many "holders of capital" have fleeced the system (their companies if executives, the investors or depositors or tax payers if in the financial business, etc.) raising the justified ire of the "holders of labor" or wage-earners if you prefer who are now taking vengeance... or at least hoping to do so...

    The investing bottom line is that, going by fundamentals and casting an un-emotional eye on the macro numbers, I believe we have another 5-7 years to go before the next crash. Hence my point about "timing" in investing, contrary to everything that I have been taught. This is real heresy if you know anything about Wall-Street!

    The challenge will be to get out before it is too late and to select the right stocks in the meanwhile. I hope that, once again, my partner will be able to call that time, as he did a few times before... albeit he tends to be a bit early. Better than a bit late. And I also hope that we shall be able to make as few errors in our stock selections as possible. But none of this is guarranteed: that's for sure....
    Dec 15 03:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For The Rebound Is Still Intact [View article]
    All correct jj.

    But have you ever noticed that most of those who made money in the market, especially in turbulent times, did it on timing? And I mean timing each stock or any other security they bought AND sold. WHEN to buy and sell is more imoportant than WHAT... all CFA curriculums and Wall Street marketing notwithstanding.

    Is that easy to do?... Well, that's a completely different question...
    Nov 22 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Investing Is Mr. Market's Enemy [View article]
    Comes down to how the company in which you invested is managed, as cpa, Jeff and Bob write.

    In the case of Berkshire Hathaway it is the brilliant management of their holdings that provides the "safety" you are looking for.

    And since BRK is nothing but a huge mutual fund, with the difference that the owner holds entire companies, not just small pieces of the firm, Mr. Buffet can direct (i.e. manage) what those companies do. His down-side is that if a company he owns does not do well, he cannot sell it but has to accept the loss ("draw-down") and correct the problem by replacing or improving that component's management. He has done it brilliantly.... so far... albeit some of his draw-downs have been rather large; compensated by high upsides.

    Similarly, you can manage a bunch of stocks, with the advantage that in case of poor performance by one, you can immediately get rid of it and replace it before it impacts substantively your portfolio. You thus limit the draw-down which is the real "risk" as most people understand it. But who can provide that management, month-in-month-out? Aye.. there is the rub... Particularly since being on the outside, you do not have Warren's advantage of seeing things go downhill before they hit the proverbial fan. You must be able to catch the down-drafts early, while the management still tells you that it was "an accident", that there are great products in the pipeline and on-and-on. Very few can do that consistently.

    And that's why a DG strategy is attractive because you have a better chance to "manage" your portfolio than you can without relying on dividends. And MANAGE YOU MUST... which comes back to the initial statement... even if the "company" you manage is none other than your own portfolio. Can you manage your DG portfolio consistently? Some can, some don't... and some are lucky. So what's so... different in managing a DG portfolio?
    Sep 30 11:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs And Interest Rate Risk II: Strategy Shifts By 2 REITs [View article]
    Kingdad/James:

    Decline of NLY continues. Seems that the gambit that you suspected works out quite nicely: the price continues to decline and no one appears to be buying in volume.

    Joking aside: The Bernanke action seems to me to be equivalent to an interest rate decline which, according to the James Shell rather serious analysis should lead to an increase in Operating Income which should lead to an increase in dividend and thus would justify a higher stock price.

    The price however keeps going the other way... There must be something else going on. Anyone having a guess at what that could be?
    Sep 14 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agency REIT Sensitivity To Interest Rate Changes [View article]
    Today's market action seems to indicate that the "buying opportunity" is ominously improving... even after the FED -guaranteed spread...

    Isn't there something else at work here? Just asking...
    Sep 14 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs And Interest Rate Risk II: Strategy Shifts By 2 REITs [View article]
    James Shell:

    Your analysis was just brought to my attention.

    Today Macquarie downgraded NLY. Are they more prescient than others? Or do they make some error in their analysis?

    Stock reacted substantively but then started to recoup. Just a knee-jerk?
    Sep 13 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agency REIT Sensitivity To Interest Rate Changes [View article]
    Today Macquarie downgraded NLY. Are they more prescient than others? Or do they make some error in their analysis?

    Stock reacted substantively but then started to recoup. Just a knee-jerk?
    Sep 13 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy U.S. Stocks [View article]
    dedugan:

    Yes, I did. Would say as much as 5-7 years by my estimate. But this can change and it has to be followed very closely with both macro and bottom-up tools.
    Aug 31 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy U.S. Stocks [View article]
    Could not agree more with Gary.
    Aug 31 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy U.S. Stocks [View article]
    DaLatin:

    Thank you for the comment. Yes EM stocks can represent value. But not necessarily as a group. The entire point of the article is that the macro (or top-down) analysis by itself is not sufficient. When well done, which is not all that common, it is useful. But it has to be backed by bottom-up, i.e. stock-by-stock analysis.
    Aug 31 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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