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Brendan O'Boyle  

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  • Your Biggest Risk In The Market May Not Be What You Think
    Fri, Feb. 27 DIA, SPY, QQQ 72 Comments

    Summary

    • The sixth anniversary of the bull market that began in March 2009 is drawing near.
    • The risk of a renewed bear market is very real, but it is not the only risk investors face.
    • Another risk is missing out on gains and it is well worth considering.
  • Deere Has Been Stuck In Neutral, But The Seeds For Future Returns Have Been Sown
    Tue, Feb. 24 DE 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Deere has lagged the market in recent years and business performance has been soft.
    • Yet, in a richly priced market, the company has a valuation that in the past has led to attractive shareholder returns.
    • Investors like Warren Buffett are accumulating the stock and it seems likely that good returns will be reaped in due course.
  • Pfizer Pays A Pretty Penny For Hospira: Here's What You Need To Know
    Tue, Feb. 10 HSP 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Pfizer announced on Thursday that they will acquire Hospira for $90/share.
    • This deal is examined in the context of Pfizer's corporate strategy.
    • Hospira's pipeline of biosimilars and portfolio of injectable drugs warranted a significant premium to the company's market price.
    • The relevance of this premium to other generic pharmaceutical companies is discussed.
  • Warren Buffett Is Right: The Fed Will Have A Tough Time Raising Rates In 2015
    Thu, Feb. 5 JNK, KMI, MLPI 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Warren Buffett has stated that the Fed will have a tough time raising interest rates due to strength in the U.S. dollar.
    • Market participants seem to expect a Fed Funds Rate of 0.5% by the end of the year.
    • If rates stay low for longer, it could catalyze the appreciation of risk assets.
  • An Update On Epirus In Light Of Recent Developments
    Thu, Feb. 5 EPRS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Recent developments regarding the approval of U.S. biosimilars are discussed.
    • Epirus has also made a secondary offering this week and this development is analyzed.
    • These factors are viewed as net positives for Epirus, which continues to be an attractive high risk/high reward biosimilar investment.
  • Consider This Before You Sell On Fears Of A Strong Dollar
    Wed, Jan. 28 AN, CAT, COST 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Markets tumbled Tuesday on a number of weak earnings reports.
    • The strong U.S. dollar was a major culprit.
    • Historically, currency changes are not a good predictor of subsequent stock market returns.
    • Investors may wish to consider rebalancing their portfolios, but there is little evidence to suggest a major change in strategy is warranted.
  • Before You Short Tesla Remember This: Tesla Is Selling A Brand, Not A Car
    Wed, Jan. 14 TSLA 200 Comments

    Summary

    • General Motors has announced it will release a new all-electric car, named the Bolt.
    • The Bolt is aimed to compete with Tesla's Model 3 at a similar price point.
    • This could be described as a negative catalyst for Tesla, with some recent articles making the case for a short sale.
    • This article questions the materiality of this development to Tesla's earnings and whether selling Tesla short is a good bet.
  • The Hepatitis C Price War Begins: Gilead Plays To Win By Signing With CVS
    Fri, Jan. 9 GILD 151 Comments

    Summary

    • A Duopoly has been established in the lucrative Hepatitis C space, with Gilead and AbbVie each vying for market share.
    • Earlier this week CVS announced that Gilead's Sovaldi and Harvoni will be the exclusive options for patients with Hepatitis C.
    • This strategic move by Gilead capitalizes on key synergies with CVS, while reframing the debate away from singular focus on price.
    • A more nuanced cost-benefit analysis considering both price and patient well-being favors Gilead's best in class medications: Gilead now has the upper hand.
  • The Oil Collapse: White Swan Or Black Swan?
    Wed, Jan. 7 USO, DIA, SPY 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of oil and other commodities have collapsed over the past six months.
    • The last cycle of monetary policy tightening unleashed a black swan as the housing market collapsed.
    • Is the crash in oil yet another black swan? Or perhaps a white one.
  • Epirus Biopharma: A High Risk/High Reward Biosimilar Investment
    Dec. 31, 2014 EPRS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Biosimilar drugs have huge growth potential in the coming years.
    • Epirus Biopharma is an intriguing pure-play biosimilar investment.
    • Recent approval for Epirus' BOW015 Remicade biosimilar, may portend substantial upside.
    • The likely value of BOW015 makes Epirus a compelling high risk/high reward investment.
  • Gilead Feels The Heat Of Competition
    Dec. 24, 2014 GILD 142 Comments

    Summary

    • As expected, AbbVie has received approval for its Viekira Pak hepatitis C combination.
    • AbbVie surprised the market by undercutting rival Gilead on price.
    • As a result, Express Scripts is dropping Gilead's Harvoni from its National Preferred Formulary.
  • Be Careful With Gilead - It May Be Time To Take Profits
    Nov. 25, 2014 GILD 236 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead is a wonderful company trading at a reasonable valuation.
    • Yet Gilead's explosive growth has created extremely lofty expectations.
    • Last quarter's results were disappointing - the stock has considerable downside if earnings continue to disappoint.
    • This article examines the bear case for Gilead - high growth companies are always risky.
  • The Next Time You Evaluate A Stock Consider The Return At Constant Valuation
    Nov. 17, 2014 BP, CVX, DE 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuations of individual stocks vary far more than the businesses they represent.
    • Yet, valuation is an inescapable part of total return.
    • Predicting changes in valuation is at best difficult and at worst a fool's errand.
    • Evaluating potential investments at constant valuation may change how attractive they appear.
  • Legacy Reserves: The Time To Accumulate Is Now
    Nov. 11, 2014 LGCY 58 Comments

    Summary

    • Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) have sold off in the recent market correction.
    • Oil has also sold off, creating a double blow particularly among upstream MLPs.
    • For investors comfortable with the risks and hungry for yield, Legacy Reserves appears to offer an attractive entry point.
  • What Bull Market? The Dow Jones Industrial Average Is Flat Since 2007...
    Nov. 4, 2014 SPY, DIA 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a bellwether index.
    • While the price weighted Dow Jones is less meaningful than the market-cap weighted S&P 500, analysis is simplified by the smaller number of companies.
    • Due to a declining number of shares available, investors may be overestimating the run-up in prices that has occurred during the present bull market.
    • The market cap adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average is no higher today than at the crest of the 2007 bull market when adjusted for inflation.
  • Is A 30% Return In 2013 A Good Reason To Sell Your Stocks?
    Jan. 8, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 10 Comments
  • Buy Parexel International On Increasing Pharmaceutical Contract-Research Spending
    Jan. 2, 2014 PRXL 4 Comments
  • Codexis Incorporated: A Strong Biopharma Turnaround Play
    Dec. 11, 2013 CDXS 4 Comments
  • Deep Risk Or Shallow Risk: Should Investors Choose Stocks Or Bonds?
    Nov. 29, 2013 DIA, SPY, QQQ 4 Comments
  • Year-End 2013: An Average Bull Market Year
    Nov. 21, 2013 SPY 11 Comments
  • Hospira Incorporated: Unappreciated Upside Due To A Promising Biosimilar Pipeline
    Nov. 17, 2013 HSP 3 Comments
  • Dude Where's My Taper?
    Sep. 22, 2013 AET, DE, DVA 24 Comments
  • Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals: A Compelling High-Risk / High-Reward Biotech Investment
       • Jul. 29, 2013 TTPH 6 Comments
  • Is The Recent Sell-Off In Closed-End Funds A Buying Opportunity?
    Jun. 17, 2013 BNA, CEF, PDI 26 Comments
  • Is The Threat Of Rising Interest Rates A Reason To Avoid Dividend Growth Stocks?
    Jun. 10, 2013 SDY 17 Comments
  • 5 Reasons To Tune Out The Noise And Do Nothing
    May. 28, 2013 AZO, CEO, CMI 10 Comments
  • It Is Time To Sell (Not So) High Yielding Bonds
    May. 13, 2013 COP, RAI, SO 1 Comment
  • The S&P 500 Is Approaching A Buy Signal
    May. 13, 2013 SPY 2 Comments
  • What Can The Kentucky Derby Teach Us About The Stock Market?
    May. 6, 2013 AAPL, AXP, DE 7 Comments
  • What Return Should Investors Expect From The Market In The Next 10 Years?
    Apr. 22, 2013 SPY 22 Comments
  • The Downside Of Buying Stocks On Sale Through Selling Puts
    Editors' Pick • Apr. 15, 2013 SPY 30 Comments
  • PIMCO's Dynamic Income Fund Is A Buy
    Apr. 7, 2013 PDI 26 Comments