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Brendan O'Boyle

 
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  • Consider This Before You Sell On Fears Of A Strong Dollar [View article]
    The market was surprised Yellen didn't push rising rates back.

    It's no matter for investors. Today the market panics because maybe rates go from 0.1% to 1%, tomorrow the market remembers the Fed is only considering raising rates because the economy is ok.

    I would say the exact opposite in a falling rate cycle. It's interesting that the top of the 2007 bull market coincided almost exactly with the Fed's first rate cut. Investors have it all wrong, you should be afraid of the Fed cutting interest rates not raising them...

    http://cnnmon.ie/1CAuxbj
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider This Before You Sell On Fears Of A Strong Dollar [View article]
    Normally I would just look at the dollar spot index:

    http://bloom.bg/17PzU5R

    The index in the article was convenient because yCharts had data going back to 1974.
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    Next week we'll all discuss if Tom Brady made some mistakes in the Super Bowl. Can I play football like TB? No, but there's nothing wrong with analyzing his performance. If I did play football it might even help me improve my game.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    WB prefers to leave his investments to themselves. He is famously hands-off in that regard.

    No doubt some corporate raiders (Icahn comes to mind) take a more aggressive approach and do have advantages that you or I do not.

    However, they also have disadvantages. Managing small amounts of money allows you to be nimble. If you asked WB or CI I bet they would tell you they could get a higher return with less in assets under management.
    Jan 27, 2015. 03:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    I disagree with this statement. Buffett does not have material information that the rest of the market lacks. The U.S. government is not going to bail out IBM.

    If you want examples of how life isn't fair the market isn't the right place to look IMO. IBM's business has performed badly and the stock has gone down. That's equally bad in the short-term for WB and Mom and Pop.
    Jan 27, 2015. 12:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    Yes, but if he did that other IBM shareholders would expect the same return. So I don't see how WB is the only IBM investor who can hope to turn a profit.

    Logically the statement doesn't make much sense when WB and Mom and Pop both own identical IBM shares.

    The more interesting thing to me is that WB's preference for stock buybacks is actually hurting the business and thus causing a lower return.

    For example, he divested JNJ around $65. Intuitively I think he may have done it because he wasn't satisfied with JNJ's buyback. But JNJ invested in the business, IBM did not. The returns speak for themselves.
    Jan 27, 2015. 11:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    "Unless Buffett has gone Gordon Gecko on us, he's the only IBM investor with a hope of a profit here. Except, perhaps, for the shorts."

    I don't really understand this sentence. Buffett owns the same stock as any other IBM investor, his ability to profit or lose is the same albeit on a larger scale.

    That said I must admit that after defending IBM for a while I'm having a hard time lately. I seriously wonder if anyone in the top of their field in cloud computing would want to work there. It makes me think the entire corporate strategy is very off base...
    Jan 27, 2015. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials go on sale in January [View news story]
    Don't buy low. The flattening yield curve is putting pressure on bank earnings (they sell long and borrow short, right?). If earnings are turning down it's way too early to buy.

    Wait for a steepening yield curve. I'd be in consumer disc (play on strong USD), healthcare, staples, real estate now. Maybe soon it's time to start buying energy and MLPs...
    Jan 25, 2015. 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toronto-Dominion Bank: A Growing Bank With A Rising Dividend [View article]
    Ok I see why I am confused. The 0.47 is CAD not USD.
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: IBM Revenue Down, Dividend Up [View article]
    A dollar averaged investment in SPY would have netted a far greater return...

    IBM has an ROIC of over 60%. The fact that management is not investing in the future of the business is inexcusable.
    Jan 21, 2015. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toronto-Dominion Bank: A Growing Bank With A Rising Dividend [View article]
    "Solid dividend yield of 3.5% with sustainable payout ratio of 45%."

    Is this correct? TD's last divvy payment was 47 cents at $41.20 that gives me a dividend yield of 4.56%.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Before You Short Tesla Remember This: Tesla Is Selling A Brand, Not A Car [View article]
    That's what makes a market.

    Out of curiosity what price are you paying to borrow the shares?
    Jan 14, 2015. 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Before You Short Tesla Remember This: Tesla Is Selling A Brand, Not A Car [View article]
    The chance of Tesla going to $1 is zero. They would be bought by another car maker before that happened.
    Jan 14, 2015. 02:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Before You Short Tesla Remember This: Tesla Is Selling A Brand, Not A Car [View article]
    Actually not. Split adjusted CSCO was at more like $5, you have incorrect prices. From there you would have watched it go to nearly $100, then you would have lost on the cost of borrowing the shares each year. I am not sure what the cost of borrowing CSCO was at the time, but imagine it must have been massive.

    Factor in the exorbitant cost of borrowing TSLA shares and you must view this as a trade. You can't wait 5 years for the bet to payoff.
    Jan 14, 2015. 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Before You Short Tesla Remember This: Tesla Is Selling A Brand, Not A Car [View article]
    "Benefits to whom...."

    Lower CO2 emissions, less pollution, new jobs and more innovation.

    That would benefit everyone.

    "And why people that don't won't a Tesla and can't afford a Tesla anyway, should be put on the hook to help pay for it?"

    Tesla buyers are not the only ones getting tax credits. The LEAF for example with a tax credit is getting into a range that an average consumer can afford. As I said above, the tax credit should help more at the lower price point because it is a much greater percentage of the total cost.
    Jan 14, 2015. 10:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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