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Brendan O'Boyle  

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  • If The Future Resembles The Past, Exxon Shareholders Have A Lot To Look Forward To [View article]
    Plenty of declining industries have been excellent investments.

    Cigarette consumption in the U.S. has been in decline for decades, how has an investment in MO done?

    Even if your thesis that fossil fuel demand have peaked is correct, it does not follow that investments in XOM, CVX or COP are not sound ones.
    Apr 25, 2015. 12:03 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere Has Been Stuck In Neutral, But The Seeds For Future Returns Have Been Sown [View article]
    I believe forward price/earnings is not a good method to predict the returns from a cyclical company. Stocks do not trade based on forward earnings, they trade based on results relative to expectations. Earnings have gone down and analysts expect them to stay down, yet in every cycle since 1980 earnings have bounced back.

    This time may be different, but if earnings do bounce back investors will hit the buy button and the stock will take off. I think DE and AGCO are good bets right now (although I purchased both below where they are trading now). Incidentally, AGCO may be an even better investment, I expect a double in 5 years, but I like Deere for stability, brand and the dividend.

    We'll revisit in 3-5 years...
    Feb 25, 2015. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Is Right: The Fed Will Have A Tough Time Raising Rates In 2015 [View article]
    I think central banks are buying stocks for the same reason that everyone else is:

    It's a search for yield when bonds yield less than stocks.

    http://bloom.bg/1D4V40B
    Feb 6, 2015. 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Big Warning Signs [View article]
    I don't agree with your response.

    You can be a long-term investor in a stock and choose to view currency fluctuations as too difficult to predict. Remember other investors are doing the same thing. What you are really trying to predict is what other investors response to unknowable future currency moves will be. You can see why some might view this as simply unknowable short-term volatility.

    That is why a stock can rally even when the news is bad. It could just come in as not as bad as the market was expecting.
    Feb 5, 2015. 02:45 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider This Before You Sell On Fears Of A Strong Dollar [View article]
    The market was surprised Yellen didn't push rising rates back.

    It's no matter for investors. Today the market panics because maybe rates go from 0.1% to 1%, tomorrow the market remembers the Fed is only considering raising rates because the economy is ok.

    I would say the exact opposite in a falling rate cycle. It's interesting that the top of the 2007 bull market coincided almost exactly with the Fed's first rate cut. Investors have it all wrong, you should be afraid of the Fed cutting interest rates not raising them...

    http://cnnmon.ie/1CAuxbj
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider This Before You Sell On Fears Of A Strong Dollar [View article]
    Normally I would just look at the dollar spot index:

    http://bloom.bg/17PzU5R

    The index in the article was convenient because yCharts had data going back to 1974.
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    Next week we'll all discuss if Tom Brady made some mistakes in the Super Bowl. Can I play football like TB? No, but there's nothing wrong with analyzing his performance. If I did play football it might even help me improve my game.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    WB prefers to leave his investments to themselves. He is famously hands-off in that regard.

    No doubt some corporate raiders (Icahn comes to mind) take a more aggressive approach and do have advantages that you or I do not.

    However, they also have disadvantages. Managing small amounts of money allows you to be nimble. If you asked WB or CI I bet they would tell you they could get a higher return with less in assets under management.
    Jan 27, 2015. 03:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    I disagree with this statement. Buffett does not have material information that the rest of the market lacks. The U.S. government is not going to bail out IBM.

    If you want examples of how life isn't fair the market isn't the right place to look IMO. IBM's business has performed badly and the stock has gone down. That's equally bad in the short-term for WB and Mom and Pop.
    Jan 27, 2015. 12:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    Yes, but if he did that other IBM shareholders would expect the same return. So I don't see how WB is the only IBM investor who can hope to turn a profit.

    Logically the statement doesn't make much sense when WB and Mom and Pop both own identical IBM shares.

    The more interesting thing to me is that WB's preference for stock buybacks is actually hurting the business and thus causing a lower return.

    For example, he divested JNJ around $65. Intuitively I think he may have done it because he wasn't satisfied with JNJ's buyback. But JNJ invested in the business, IBM did not. The returns speak for themselves.
    Jan 27, 2015. 11:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    "Unless Buffett has gone Gordon Gecko on us, he's the only IBM investor with a hope of a profit here. Except, perhaps, for the shorts."

    I don't really understand this sentence. Buffett owns the same stock as any other IBM investor, his ability to profit or lose is the same albeit on a larger scale.

    That said I must admit that after defending IBM for a while I'm having a hard time lately. I seriously wonder if anyone in the top of their field in cloud computing would want to work there. It makes me think the entire corporate strategy is very off base...
    Jan 27, 2015. 10:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials go on sale in January [View news story]
    Don't buy low. The flattening yield curve is putting pressure on bank earnings (they sell long and borrow short, right?). If earnings are turning down it's way too early to buy.

    Wait for a steepening yield curve. I'd be in consumer disc (play on strong USD), healthcare, staples, real estate now. Maybe soon it's time to start buying energy and MLPs...
    Jan 25, 2015. 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toronto-Dominion Bank: A Growing Bank With A Rising Dividend [View article]
    Ok I see why I am confused. The 0.47 is CAD not USD.
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: IBM Revenue Down, Dividend Up [View article]
    A dollar averaged investment in SPY would have netted a far greater return...

    IBM has an ROIC of over 60%. The fact that management is not investing in the future of the business is inexcusable.
    Jan 21, 2015. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toronto-Dominion Bank: A Growing Bank With A Rising Dividend [View article]
    "Solid dividend yield of 3.5% with sustainable payout ratio of 45%."

    Is this correct? TD's last divvy payment was 47 cents at $41.20 that gives me a dividend yield of 4.56%.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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