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Brendan O'Boyle

 
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  • A Smooth Exit From Stimulus Should Be Impossible [View article]
    The last time I don't recall a year long discussion of the Feds exit strategy. So like I said, the more people talk about it the more likely it has been discounted into the market.

    But I also would contest your claim that the end of QE1 caused the 2010 flash crash and the end of QE2 caused the 2011 crash.

    As I recall there were many other things going on, among them...

    -European sovereign debt crisis
    -ECRI recession call
    -U.S. debt downgrade
    Sep 26 06:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Smooth Exit From Stimulus Should Be Impossible [View article]
    I disagree, humans make buying and selling decisions they are not mechanical.

    Investors anticipate the end of QE (clearly they have been since the Fed said 'Taper' last May). If buyers and sellers expect lower prices as a result of QE ending it will be discounted before it happens.

    QE ending is widely known and discussed, you can ignore it the market has already discounted it.
    Sep 26 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BAML: Currency swings a risk for Philip Morris [View news story]
    Talk about being 2 years behind the times...
    Sep 26 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasurys slip on concern Pimco may sour on U.S. debt [View news story]
    We're worried that everyone is going to sell their bonds because Bill Gross is managing a bond fund at Janus instead of PIMCO?

    That makes a lot of sense - thanks efficient market...
    Sep 26 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Smooth Exit From Stimulus Should Be Impossible [View article]
    It's just hard to believe that the end of a program that has been so thoroughly communicated by the Fed and picked over by the mainstream isn't already discounted into the market...
    Sep 26 01:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva: On The Auction Block? [View article]
    PFE expressed interest in ACT.

    Why not buy TEVA instead? The price tag is 50% less (amazing since TEVAs revenue is twice as much). Then you get generics and tax inversion at the same time. Kill two birds with one stone.
    Sep 24 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Investors Positioned For An October Surprise? [View article]
    The month of October saw "the "flash crash" of 2010?"

    Wasn't the flash crash in May? This wasn't that long ago...
    Sep 24 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Am A Dividend Growth Investor. I Want Dividends, Growth, And Dividend Growth [View article]
    "For the Canadian readers' information, both holdings reside in my tax-free account so I don't have to worry about the different tax treatments for the different portions of their distributions."

    Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the Canadian government still withholds the tax. For tax efficiency you want these in a taxable account so you can deduct the Canadian tax against your US taxes.
    Sep 24 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BMO bullish on select MLPs despite sector valuation concerns [View news story]
    $47 price target on KMI at $39?

    Where were these guys when the stock did have upside at $32? I would be surprised to see KMI trade that high within the next couple years.
    Sep 11 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Recent Pullback, Cummins Shares Are Still Not Compelling Value [View article]
    "The stock currently trades at its historical forward earnings per share multiple."

    Yes and the historical forward earnings multiple has resulted in a 25% CAGR over the past 10 years.

    CMI is a buy if the next 10 years are even half as good...

    Buyer at $140, buying more if we get to $125.
    Sep 11 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The 2 Pillars Of Full-Cycle Investing [View article]
    "For example, after the 1990 bear market, I had a reputation as a “lonely raging bull” and advocated a leveraged stance in equities for years."

    I don't get it the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 19x. From 1990 to 1997 the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 was 19x.

    Coincidentally in 1990 the 10 year Treasury rate was 8.2%.

    So stocks trading at the same valuation as they were 25 years ago aren't worth buying even though the risk premium you are being given is actually 6% greater?

    A leveraged position in equities (not that I am advocating it) makes far more sense now with the fed funds rate at 0% than it did in 1990 with rates at 8%.
    Sep 9 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: 12% Yield And Potential Upside Catalysts [View article]
    I don't dislike the strategy, I'm just saying it's not a 12% yield.

    To get a 12% yield you must only count the $3500 of T stock you own. So you are basically saying that selling a put is free money. Why not sell 2 puts and call it an 18% yield?

    You can be happy to own T at $33, but if June rolls around and the stock trades at $30 you have still lost a portion of the $3300 you put at risk selling the put. Since you had more than $3500 at risk it doesn't make sense to use it as the denominator when computing the yield.
    Sep 9 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: 12% Yield And Potential Upside Catalysts [View article]
    At Interactive Brokers it does not.
    Sep 9 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: 12% Yield And Potential Upside Catalysts [View article]
    It doesn't make sense to compare total returns this way.

    If the yield of a stock is 5% and I can borrow money at 1% you can always boost the yield north of 30% with a margin account (or sell lots of naked puts - whichever strategy you prefer).

    The author is comparing the yield of T to the yield of another strategy. To make an apples to apples comparison we should compare it to a strategy with the same level of risk. That is why I like stating the yield relative to the total capital at risk.
    Sep 9 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: 12% Yield And Potential Upside Catalysts [View article]
    Yes you are correct, I'm not immune to typos either apparently.
    Sep 9 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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