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Brendan O'Boyle

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  • Vodafone - The Price Dip Presents A Great Opportunity For Value Investment [View article]
    I don't think the forward dividend yield is 8.3%, it's more like 5%. Agree with the article VOD is a nice buy on the recent pullback.
    Apr 9 11:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Volatility ETFs: Underperformance, But Not Due To Fundamentals [View article]
    Would it not be preferable to buy puts on VXX to short volatility rather than use an ETF? I don't really see any purpose for the ETF unless you are day-trading and the re-balancing isn't a factor.

    Given the inherent decay of VXX I've always found it is rather surprising that an OTM put costs the same as a call, even for options dated well into the future.
    Apr 8 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Codexis Incorporated: A Strong Biopharma Turnaround Play [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.

    The main reason I see the company as a buy is that I view the chances for success for biopharma as being greater than that of biofuels.

    So I guess I disagreed with the past strategy of betting the farm on biofuels and management has come around out of necessity. This turnaround may take some time, but I think the new strategy has a good chance of success.
    Dec 26 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Year-End 2013: An Average Bull Market Year [View article]
    The tricky part is there is so much variation in the length of a bull market, so five years all by itself doesn't mean too much.

    So I still think the best strategy is to buy well priced stocks (AFL, CVX come to mind) and accumulate for the long term. If you are uncomfortable with the price of the market start shifting into a higher weighting in bonds.

    After this run it can't hurt to be a little cautious, but if the bull continues we could easily still see another 20% return next year.

    Thanks for reading!
    Nov 22 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble In Blue Chips - Part 1 [View article]
    One characteristic of a bubble is far greater performance and valuation than the rest of the market.

    We're not even close to anything resembling a bubble. Let's take JNJ (which is everyone's favorite example). There E in the 20x P/E is depressed due to the acquisition of Synthes last year. Forward P/E is more like 16x.

    Sure there are some like HD where the valuation is clearly out of whack, but by and large many blue chips in the Dow are quite cheap.

    Take XOM, CVX - even MCD, JNJ are more or less in line with the market. Or just look at the whole market, not one or two outliers: The Dow 30 has a TTM P/E of 17.24x, the S&P 500 has a TTM P/E of 18.32x. If anything the S&P500 is more expensive and the Dow has not massively outperformed the S&P over the course of the bull market.

    The use of the word bubble is at best unwarranted.
    Oct 19 11:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Cutting It: Even After Earnings Disappointments, Intuitive Surgical Is Still Overvalued [View article]
    A while ago I bought some BIDU for 85 bucks a share. Then there was a bad earnings report and briefly the stock was under 80.

    ISRG is in the same place right now. All of the negative catalysts the author is mentioning are already priced in. Unless the business model is severely broken investors in ISRG will be fine (even with low growth) or feeling very good (if growth picks up).

    ISRG is priced in line with other medical device makers (STJ, ZMH, SYK, etc). The market is expecting no revenue growth, so IMHO the short thesis doesn't hold water anymore unless you think the business model is really falling apart.
    Oct 19 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Express Scripts Trading At A Deep Discount To Fair Value [View article]
    What is going on with their operating margins? The chart with margin compression isn't a good addition to your long-thesis unless you have a good reason why things will turn around.
    Oct 9 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dude Where's My Taper? [View article]
    I don't think the Fed should be terrified of higher (but historically very low) mortgage rates.

    The average purchase price of a home is $272k, the median is $222k, whether the interest rate is 3.5% or 4.5% housing is very affordable historically in most parts of the country.
    Sep 23 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dude Where's My Taper? [View article]
    Agreed, this one definitely could have made the list.
    Sep 22 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dude Where's My Taper? [View article]
    I was identifying what I view as the better income plays in a sector that concerns me. Some things in the sector don't concern me due to valuation, they concern me because the trade is too popular.

    There's nothing wrong with being worried about a sector, but picking a few companies that look more or less fairly valued.

    Let's put it this way, KMP yields 6.6% and O yields 5.5%, I would sleep better at night owning these than a comparably yielding junk bond.
    Sep 22 10:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick may be attractive levered play on gold rebound: Barron's [View news story]
    NEM was well over 30 bucks in 1987.

    Gold mining is such a poor business model it's a wonder anyone invests in these stocks.
    Sep 15 10:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Strategies For A Challenging Decade Ahead [View article]
    Secular bear markets do not end when cyclical bear markets do. In other words your timing is off. Even if the market continues on its run the secular bear is not over until new all time inflation adjusted highs are reached.

    In other words if this bull is the real deal the secular bear will probably end up being 14 years (2000 til 2014).

    Saying the 2000 secular bear ended in 2009 is like saying the last secular bear ended in 1974.
    Sep 4 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed fears send stocks sharply lower; Dow -225, Nasdaq -63 [View news story]
    If everyone is so convinced the Fed is tapering today why is gold up 2%?
    Aug 15 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals: A Compelling High-Risk / High-Reward Biotech Investment [View article]
    It wasn't a group, it was just one example.

    I am sure there are many other examples.
    Aug 14 03:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals: A Compelling High-Risk / High-Reward Biotech Investment [View article]
    You are correct about near-term catalysts and that was the only thing that gave me some pause before writing the article.

    So investors may have to be patient. On the other had, biotech has been red hot and it's possible that a company like Tetraphase could start to gain attention once the Phase III trials start and the market prices in a valuation more in line with the odds of success.

    Personally, I would recommend a small position with the intention of averaging more money into it. Alternatively one could simply watch, it's very possible Eravacycline could be approved and the company might still trade at a significant discount to the likely upside.

    I remember a couple years ago a friend told me about the huge market that Regeneron's EYLEA could have. The drug was approved in Novemeber 2011 and REGN was trading at 50 bucks. At the time, I just assumed that everything was priced in and never did any homework, which in retrospect was a very poor assumption.
    Aug 8 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment