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Brendan O'Boyle  

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  • U.S. Recession Cloaked By European Distraction; Stop Ignoring The Signals [View article]
    I agree and there are differences between now and August.

    First among them the stock market has corrected by 10%, whereas last year the economic data became dismal and the market traded flat.

    Second, the data have not been as bad as 2011. Remember we had a goose egg jobs report and manufacturing surveys showing contraction.

    Things could still get worse, but I view the market as fairly priced in given the soft data. Of course the data could always head further south, but if you are a buyer now I don't think you are being suckered and paying more than you should.
    Jun 27, 2012. 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shiller's Gloomy Report On The Stock Market Is Wrong [View article]
    It's more that there is something very fundamentally different about the market.

    It has gone from obscenely overvalued in 2000, to about fairly valued today.

    If bonds were the same price as ten years ago, I would recommend 50:50 stocks bonds, just for the safety in an uncertain economy. But at the current prices I really can't see the point to holding anything other than stocks and cash. And after a decent correction, I would say mostly stocks right now...
    Jun 27, 2012. 07:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The S&P Index Will Not Crash Below The March 2009 Lows [View article]
    You guys are a riot. You must be great at parties...
    Jun 26, 2012. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The S&P Index Will Not Crash Below The March 2009 Lows [View article]
    If the financial system collapses the price of stocks will be the least of your worries.
    Jun 26, 2012. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The VIX For A 200% Gain [View article]
    Everyone was talking about China/Europe slowing down 1 year ago and the year before that too. If you listened all you did was miss a good buying opportunity.

    Tell me why it's different this time? Last summer's slowdown looked more severe at least so far...
    Jun 26, 2012. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The S&P Index Will Not Crash Below The March 2009 Lows [View article]
    I don't know how much you can take from this data.

    Many of the assets you are looking at are directly correlated with stock prices. So how can they be a leading indicator for the stock market?

    In the past 100 years after a big bear market the SnP never set new lows. The big bear market always set the low into the next generational bull. If we see a recession 1000 wouldn't surprise me, less than 800 seems very unlikely.

    But don't worry if the market goes down it will come back. You could have said the same thing in 2010 or 2011, corrections are common bear markets are less frequent. Selling everything after a 10% decline is not a workable strategy.
    Jun 26, 2012. 07:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Investors Can Ignore Stock Prices [View article]
    So if interest rates were higher CVX would trade at 5x earnings instead of 7.5x?

    Give me a break, saying the valuations of the companies he is referring to are lofty is just wrong. CVX is a great buy right now.
    Jun 26, 2012. 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pain Everywhere Except In The Commodity Pits [View article]
    I will note many stocks of oil and mining companies have followed commodities down. So I would be buying APA, COP, CVX, SLB and RIO.

    I have this eerie feeling about the market though. It's been too quiet. Last year was a panic, now I feel like I'm getting smothered with a wet blanket. Luckily my gut has never been any good at predicting the market's direction.

    Your comment about the price direction is interesting. Bloomberg made the observation yesterday that every time energy stocks have underperformed the SnP by as much (i think on a six month rolling basis) as they have it has led to at least a 15% move down in the market.

    I don't think this is reliable though. After all until 2010 and 2011 every move under the 200 day meant a bear market. When people are so pessimistic early selling doesn't tell you much.
    Jun 26, 2012. 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can Cummins Go? [View article]
    I don't think this is a very sound strategy. I bought it for 92 and it went up to 96 shortly after before heading back to 89.

    If you want in, buy when it's low. Buying a range bound stock at the top of the range doesn't make sense. If you want a confirmed breakout 95 isn't high enough. Probably need to wait for 100 at least.

    Personally, I'm an investor not a trader. So I just buy when the price seems good and hold long term. 92 seemed like a deal at the time, it could certainly wind up in the mid-80s, but it could also go lower if the whole market turns south.

    I still think this is just a correction, so I doubt much lower than upper 80's. Right now looks a lot like 2010 to me. I could be wrong, but I think the worst of the decline is over. Now we will probably be range bound for a while until the economy starts to show a little more vigor or the Eurotrash get their crap together.
    Jun 25, 2012. 08:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are U.S. Equities Undervalued? New Evidence From A Federal Reserve Model [View article]
    STX is an interesting one. The thing I worry about there is their margins have expanded a lot due to fewer competitors and Thailand flooding.

    If their margins reverted to the mean they would not be cheap. STX's current price/sales is actually above the trailing 10 year average. For my money I prefer INTC, but STX could be higher risk/higher reward...
    Jun 25, 2012. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The VIX For A 200% Gain [View article]
    If I had a dime for every blogger who is convinced that a 10% decline portends a 40-50% decline I wouldn't need to invest at all.

    Given how minor this correction has been the bearishness is unbelievable.
    Jun 25, 2012. 08:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can Cummins Go? [View article]
    Who knows how low it can go.

    In a market where rumor and innuendo about Europe reign over any real information about the business it's impossible to say...
    Jun 25, 2012. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are U.S. Equities Undervalued? New Evidence From A Federal Reserve Model [View article]
    Finally a burst of sunlight amid all the gloom.

    Are the examples comparing this metric and forward returns that you refer to in the Malkiel reference? I'm interested in taking a closer look.
    Jun 25, 2012. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Soft 'Evans Rule' In Place [View article]
    So a 7% year over year increase in retail sales is due to inflation?

    What inflation, the price of any commodity is lower than one year ago.

    Notice I didn't say the economy is doing great, I just said that nothing indicates it is in imminent danger of falling off a cliff. If the economy was great the SnP would be trading at all time highs.
    Jun 24, 2012. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Identifying 7 Stocks With Explosive Dividend Growth [View article]
    CLF and STX are good picks, but not for the faint of heart.

    I have been thinking of buying STX, the current pullback represents a nice opportunity to lock in a nearly 5% dividend yield. STX also has an extensive buyback program and a nearly comical PEG ratio of 0.11.
    Jun 24, 2012. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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