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Brendan O'Boyle

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  • Codexis: Building Environmentally Successful Profits [View article]
    Hey BlacknGold - Go Steelers! (if that is what your handle refers to).

    What I would really like to know is how much revenue they generate from a collaboration with MRK or PFE. That part of the business is sustainable, biofuels are speculative. I have little doubt someone will make money on biofuels, but there is no way to know if CDXS will be the one.

    I like combining speculative bets in companies with sustainable earnings. LIFE is my favorite in this regard, because they have developed technology that can sequence a human genome in 3 hours and under 1000 bucks via a proprietary method (that I think is significantly better than Illumina's). But they also make plenty of money from assays, genetic testing etc. so the bet isn't too speculative.

    If CDXS can grow the work with Pharma and develop earnings to support their stock price I would look at them the same way. Until then I will watch. I would rather buy for $10 once their earnings support the stock price than buy at $3.50 and hope the earnings materialize later. CDXS is a good company to keep on a watch list and check periodically to see how they are doing.
    Apr 25 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thermo Fisher: An Undervalued, Attractive Buy [View article]
    I was thinking about this, but I'm conflicted. A good deal of their earnings comes from academic R&D and the NSF/NIH budget is looking rather lean at the present time. But they did come out ahead on earnings today and I do like their stock holder remuneration.

    I like LH better right now, similar valuation, remuneration and a business model that should be ok at the present time.
    Apr 25 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola Earnings Bubble Over [View article]
    I own some KO, but I wonder about your opinion on something. They have spent ~14B over the last 5 years on share repurchases without reducing the float at all. Am I wrong to assume that the repurchases are just balancing out executive stock compensation? For a point of comparison KO paid 18B in dividends over the same time.

    I am thinking my money may be better invested elsewhere. I have been happy to take a 15% bump in under a year, but with the stock trading at multiyear highs I am tempted to sell. What's your opinion?
    Apr 24 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Norfolk Southern Corporation Steams Past Expectations [View article]
    Picked up NSC at 65, I think it looks a bit better priced than UNP and the shareholder remuneration is better. Combine the dividend and buybacks and you get 5% a year for holding the stock. I'm planning to hold it for a long time.
    Apr 24 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Run, Don't Walk [View article]
    If you can't predict where the SnP will be at the end of the year, how can you predict where it will be at the end of the decade?

    I will note, there have never been consecutive decades of flat returns on the US equity market in its entire history. Even starting with the crash in 1929 and negative returns for the 30's and great depression the market was well above that by the end of the 40's.

    I don't know when we will break into a new secular bull market, but I will bet you it will be before 2020. 8 years is a long time, simply by inflation the market should be up 26% by then. And if you buy companies that return at least 5% to shareholders through buybacks and dividends you will do fine. Find any company that has bought back 5% of its float annually for 5 years and you will see a stock you wish you had bought 5 years back.
    Apr 24 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Run, Don't Walk [View article]
    All the more reason to (perhaps) be bearish in 2013 and bullish in 2012. It's an election year, do you see anyone cutting back on spending today?
    Apr 24 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Run, Don't Walk [View article]
    The market will not go down just because margins are high and the CAPE is a bit above average.

    Margins could remain at record highs for years, what is the cause of their imminent collapse? You will have to give me something more convincing than mean reversion. And if they go down because wages go up that would be an overall plus for the economy and the stock market (eventually, margins were also at record highs in the 50s you know).

    Also Hussman has not done a good job of timing the market, sure you can wax poetic with gloom and doom, but unless you can do better I am skeptical about following your advice. The market looks nothing like a bull market top, the economy is improving. This bull will run at least for a few more quarters. If by Q3 we can't make a new high I would start to get worried. This is a normal, healthy pullback, a time to add to positions not sell them.

    And is 4.5% with or without dividends? I would feel pretty good if my portfolio gave me 4.5% plus dividends.
    Apr 24 07:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Rally Over? [View article]
    According to the last CPI inflation is 2.7%. Food and fuel are parts of the CPI, the index is the average of the whole thing.

    The average inflation over the previous 100 years is 3.3%, so actually we are below average.

    French stocks probably care about the French elections, you really think the SnP is going down because of elections in France? So they had an election, did that cause the market to go down 1%? I doubt it. And you think the bull market that started in 2003 was caused by the Iraq war? Correlation does not imply causation.

    If you want to short the market be my guest, it's your money. I don't try to predict short term price fluctuations. You will be right as much as you are wrong, on the whole I doubt you will make money.
    Apr 23 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Rally Over? [View article]
    No actually I'm 30, I just know my history. And I know that problems come and problems go. Our problems today are not that scary by comparison. The market is about average in terms of price and through it all that it has returned 8.7% a year for the past 100 years. So you can deal with the ups and downs or you can hide under the table in bonds and hope to god interest rates never go up.
    Apr 23 12:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fund Flows Paradox [View article]
    I can agree with that. Also, the spectacular melt up we have seen in the first quarter is likely because hedge funds were so badly whipsawed last year that they took their bat and ball and went home.

    The surging stocks are likely their favorites. Take TPX, which rallied by 30% and then collapsed by 20% in one overnight gap. Or AAPL for that matter.

    If you are in the market, buy the most boring low beta dividend paying stocks. CVX and KMP or some regulated utilities are ideas. Buy the fancy stuff when the bottom falls out of the market. I'm really getting tired of how bipolar the market is and this article hits it right on the head, it's because no one holds a stock long enough for it to constitute an investment anymore.

    And yet even hedge funds lagged the market last year. We have a constant race to nowhere going on.
    Apr 23 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Old King Coal Is Sick But Not Dying: We Are Long Coal And Coal Dividends [View article]
    Interesting article. Seems like China is the beacon of hope for the industry. Which companies do you think are best suited to export coal for Chinese comsumption?
    Apr 22 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freaking Out With Bearish Economist Gary Shilling, Chart By Chart [View article]
    I have read two of Fisher's books, he is very insightful. Sometimes a little too bullish, he totally missed the housing bubble for example.

    But I agree with him, I don't think we have seen the highs for 2012 yet.
    Apr 22 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freaking Out With Bearish Economist Gary Shilling, Chart By Chart [View article]
    You don't have to examine his record that closely to see his calls are always over bearish.

    -2009: SnP will hit 350 8x on 10 year CAPE
    -2010: SnP won't hit 1400 until 2020
    -2012: SnP will hit 800?

    His vindication was being right about the 2000 bubble, but called it way too early. Irrational exuberance was 1994.

    So basically he is always bearish, yet since '94 the market is up about 400%. If you avoided tech stocks in 2000 and bank stocks in 2008 you would have done significantly better.

    In the past three years there was always a reason to sell, yet the market has doubled. One year price forecasts are a waste of time, there are too many variables and the market is not glaringly overpriced.
    Apr 22 06:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Dividend Stocks Trading Dirt Cheap And With Strong Profits [View article]
    CVX is a winner, the others not so much.
    Apr 22 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rebalancing Of The U.S. Coal And Natural Gas Industry Part 2 [View article]
    I would agree, we have not seen panic as of yet. I know what a bear market looks like, it's a long rolling decline topped off by panic selling at the end, capitulation and finally recovery.

    We have a long rolling decline, but no high volume capitulation. It may be starting in ACI (volumes are picking up over 5% down on Friday), perhaps BTU will avoid it. I think discretion is the better part of valor here.
    Apr 22 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment