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Brendan O'Boyle  

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  • U.S. Stock Market Complacency On Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    Which would only be known in retrospect. Every quarter bears have been calling for a peak in earnings. Every quarter they have been wrong.

    I see nothing new, nothing the market doesn't already know. Do you think Warren Buffett made a big investment in a cyclical company like GM because he is stupid? Or that Ken Fisher says he is very bullish on the market just as a bluff?

    Sure they could be wrong, but I wouldn't count on it...
    Jul 6, 2012. 09:57 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Comes The Next Big Leg Down In Equities [View article]
    The chart isn't even presented correctly. A decline in T note yield is an INCREASE in price. The past several days BOTH treasuries and stocks have increased in price. How that makes stocks expensive relative to treasuries on a two week time frame is anyone's guess.

    This article isnt worth the time it took to read it.
    Jun 18, 2012. 09:07 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Before You Short Tesla Remember This: Tesla Is Selling A Brand, Not A Car [View article]
    No actually Circuit City didn't have a brand, it was essentially an intermediary with zero competitive advantage in a retail business that was disrupted by Amazon.

    Would you shop at Circuit City instead of Radioshack because you liked the look of the store?
    Jan 14, 2015. 10:17 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Before You Short Tesla Remember This: Tesla Is Selling A Brand, Not A Car [View article]
    "Don't you understand that he's running out of places to expand??? "

    Doesn't growth by definition mean there are fewer places to expand?

    Even the U.S. market is 33% in CA. I lived in Boston until about one-year ago. I never even saw a Tesla until nearly the day that I left.

    Looking at a quarter-by-quarter or year-by-year income statement I just don't see it. Clearly the analysts do not either because they are calling for 60% revenue growth in the coming fiscal year.

    The strange part is all this top-calling by the bears will probably lead them to be short at the worst possible time. Growth always ebbs and flows, I think going short you stand more to lose than you stand to gain, which is what I said in the article.
    Jan 13, 2015. 09:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About IBM No One Comes Out To Say [View article]
    Sure it matters what price you enter.

    Say you have a stock at $100 and you buy 100 shares. 30 years from now with dividends reinvested maybe you have a 10x return or $100,000.

    Now say the price drops 10% and you buy then, now you have 111 shares at $90 and $111,111 in 30 years.

    The price difference is proportional to the entry price no matter how long the holding period. In other words, the statement "I am going to own this stock a long time" does not mean you shouldn't be concerned with the price you pay. The price you pay is just as important thirty years from now as one year from now.
    Jul 5, 2014. 12:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
    As someone who has some experience selling puts let me tell you something: do not sell puts on tech stocks!

    Selling a put gives unlimited downside and known upside. Tech is about growth and the bell curve distribution of returns for tech stocks have fat tails. They could go up a lot or they could go down a lot. When you cut off the positive side (large upside) you are left with the negative side (large downside). Thus selling a put (even on AAPL) for a tech stock is just a bad idea.

    I have watched these "supposed" genius option traders talk about selling HPQ and AAPL puts on Bloomberg and I literally yell at them that its a stupid trade. Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. And buy the way I do think AAPL is a buy here.
    Jan 23, 2013. 07:22 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Rule: Buy Microsoft Under $30 [View article]
    Hmm, MSFT has more than quadrupled profits since 2000. I guess we have different definitions of 'doomed.'

    If you separate your feelings for MSFT as a company and just evaluate it by the money coming in the front door, it's a screaming buy. And that isn't even assuming that management is capable of doing anything right, if they actually execute the stock would go to 50, easy.
    Oct 7, 2012. 04:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unless Buffett Has Gone Gecko He Is Wrong About IBM [View article]
    WB prefers to leave his investments to themselves. He is famously hands-off in that regard.

    No doubt some corporate raiders (Icahn comes to mind) take a more aggressive approach and do have advantages that you or I do not.

    However, they also have disadvantages. Managing small amounts of money allows you to be nimble. If you asked WB or CI I bet they would tell you they could get a higher return with less in assets under management.
    Jan 27, 2015. 03:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Before You Short Tesla Remember This: Tesla Is Selling A Brand, Not A Car [View article]
    Because the fact they hadn't made much penetration into the market indicates to me that market saturation could be further away.
    Jan 14, 2015. 09:42 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grandma Got Run Over By A Dividend Portfolio [View article]
    From what I can tell it appears that Grandma got run over by excessive concentration risk.

    It's pretty meaningless that the stocks pay high dividends, the point is they are all in similar industries that went down together. You could just as easily lose most of your portfolio with excessive concentration risk in biotech or technology stocks (neither of which pay dividends).

    But what do I know, it's not even clear from the article what stocks we are talking about...
    Dec 30, 2014. 12:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade, Part 2 [View article]
    The only reason that you can put gas in your car is because someone profited by retrieving it from the ground.

    The idea that oil companies will not be able to make profits implies that future oil production will cease. After all, if there is no profit who is going to drill and refine oil?

    The question to ask yourself is really that simple: "In the future will I be able to buy gas?" If the answer is yes then oil companies will need to make a profit, because no one is going to give you gas for free...
    Nov 30, 2014. 01:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is When The Bear Growls [View article]
    1.15^5 = 2.01 - so you think the market is going to double in the next five years?

    It is an interesting commentary on market sentiment that in early 2012 I called for a market double in 10 years and the only responses I got were hecklers. Now from 65% higher prices the 5 year market double call gets 30 likes in one day.

    And you say that sentiment is dour? Sentiment is now somewhere in between excitement and euphoria, we are definitely beginning to leave optimism in the rear view mirror.
    Jun 21, 2014. 06:43 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Footsteps Of Buffett Retirement Portfolio: Time For A Correction [View article]
    The SnP tends to rise by about 22% when in a bull-market, it must do so in order for the average of bull and bear markets to be 9.75%. During bear markets the index falls by 35% annualized on average.

    So actually, the 14.3% advance in 5 months is a fairly average bull market. At the moment everyone seems to be whipping themselves into a frenzy because interest rates have risen slightly. Dividend stocks and closed-end funds have sold off viciously as a result, but I wouldn't worry too much. Things will probably settle down soon.
    Jun 1, 2013. 03:37 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downside Of Buying Stocks On Sale Through Selling Puts [View article]
    If you want to quibble over details and avoid your inaccurate claim that I am somehow misrepresenting an article written by you and titled: "Buy Stocks on Sale Using This Strategy" be my guest. How you can state that you did not advocate a strategy, which is championed in no uncertain terms in the title of the article is beyond me.

    Again, I fail to see how I mischaracterized your work. I used the specific strike prices you mentioned because you used those as paradigms for your strategy.

    There was no intent to maligne your analysis. I simply thought that readers should carefully consider the risk and rewards of such a strategy before implementing it.

    If you do not like being characterized as "advocating" a strategy, perhaps you should be a bit more subtle and not instruct readers to implement that strategy in the title of an article.

    This is equivalent to if I wrote and article titled: "Buy Johnson and Johnson." Then someone else referenced my article and pointed out the downside to buying JNJ. Then I state how "it was just an idea to consider" and act horribly offended that someone could characterize me as advocating a buy of JNJ. I didn't even say it was a bad strategy, I simply noted the downside.
    Apr 15, 2013. 08:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Selling In PIMCO's High Income Fund Continues [View article]
    I think most writers on this site are amateurs. However, most of the articles are quite good, better than the WSJ or Barron's IMHO.

    As for my own buy recommendations:

    July 25th: CVX closed at $99/share now at $107.82 (Inefficient Market Hypothesis).
    July 30th: ZMH closed at $58.85/share now at $67.26 (Zimmer Nears Buy Territory).

    More recent recommendations it's still too early to say (MSFT, CSCO, AAPL, KMP, DG and UHS), although I will admit that my batting average has been better when I stay away from tech. But it's been a rough few months in tech lately, didn't see that one coming.
    Dec 16, 2012. 07:10 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment