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Brendan O'Boyle  

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  • The Hepatitis C Price War Begins: Gilead Plays To Win By Signing With CVS [View article]
    You are correct that there are upside catalysts for GILD beyond the ones I outlined. Unfortunately it is impossible to fit them all into a single article.

    Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Jan 9, 2015. 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hepatitis C Price War Begins: Gilead Plays To Win By Signing With CVS [View article]
    Other PBMs are following CVS Caremark's lead:

    http://bit.ly/1BVLYkl
    Jan 9, 2015. 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Epirus Biopharma: A High Risk/High Reward Biosimilar Investment [View article]
    EPRS surging on increased visibility for U.S. biosimilars:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 9, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hepatitis C Price War Begins: Gilead Plays To Win By Signing With CVS [View article]
    Yes, I mentioned Sovaldi and Harvoni, but may have focused more on Harvoni in the article.

    You are correct, both Sovaldi and Harvoni are relevant here. I didn't intend to imply otherwise. As always, thanks for reading and commenting. I very much appreciate your expertise on the subject.
    Jan 9, 2015. 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Collapse: White Swan Or Black Swan? [View article]
    "lastly, the fed is reinvesting proceeds of its $4.5 trillion bond portfolio. this reinvestment is about $29 billion per month (assumes 5% principal rollover each year and 3% p.a. reinvestment of coupons). hard to call this 'tightening'."

    I think the market is moving due to the perception of Fed tightening.

    This is exactly what we discovered in 2008 - it is "a flaw" as Greenspan put it. In other words loose monetary conditions were expected by Greenspan to be a tonic for the economy. The trouble is during economic booms loose monetary conditions lead to speculative excess. During busts the opposite is true.

    In either case the effect is magnified to be far greater than would be expected. This is because market participants take too much risk during the boom phase and then shun risk too much during the bust.

    So a small change in monetary policy can elicit a large change in investor behavior. Thus the tail wags the dog, so to speak. The tail is the Fed's policy, because of the way investors interpret changes in policy the effect can be far greater than one would expect. So not buying bonds is the equivalent of tightening, everyone gets the message then everyone hits sell at the same time...
    Jan 7, 2015. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Collapse: White Swan Or Black Swan? [View article]
    "If you look closely during the 2008-09 period when crude oil crashes massively, Yardeni supply and demand chart still showed the same trend."

    Yes this is true, but in 2008 you had a massive economic crash. During the resulting recession market participants were discounting oil due to expected economic conditions that were not supportive of demand for energy.

    The difference this time is the crash precedes any economic deterioration (as the crash in housing preceded economic deterioration in 2008).

    Will the crash in oil cause imbalances in the real economy a la 2008? Certainly the high yield bond market has not been immune to the oil crash.

    As stated in the article this is the crucial question: Is the oil crash a black swan or perhaps a white one? In other words if oil has crashed due to speculative excess from money printing could it be different this time? One can at least make an argument that lower oil prices are good for the economy.
    Jan 7, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Provides Some Sage Words On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    "The market is currently pricing in a 40% market share loss and a 40% loss of pricing power according to Morgan Stanley."

    Where do these numbers come from?
    Dec 31, 2014. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grandma Got Run Over By A Dividend Portfolio [View article]
    From what I can tell it appears that Grandma got run over by excessive concentration risk.

    It's pretty meaningless that the stocks pay high dividends, the point is they are all in similar industries that went down together. You could just as easily lose most of your portfolio with excessive concentration risk in biotech or technology stocks (neither of which pay dividends).

    But what do I know, it's not even clear from the article what stocks we are talking about...
    Dec 30, 2014. 12:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014's Trash Could Be 2015's Treasure [View article]
    I would nominate MLPs as a laggard that may outperform next year...
    Dec 27, 2014. 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Feels The Heat Of Competition [View article]
    The whole GILD ABBV pricing conflict has been about ESRX trying to play one company off of the other to negotiate a lower price.

    Yet GILD has not granted ESRX a discount on its medications. If we know there has been "meaningful discussion" and we know that ESRX wants a discount, it seems quite logical to conclude that the absence of a discount infers GILD has as of yet refused to offer one.

    Do you think there have been "meaningful discussions" and ESRX never proposed that they wanted a discount?
    Dec 27, 2014. 09:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Feels The Heat Of Competition [View article]
    I don't have a problem with Goalkick's comment. If he didn't enjoy the article and provides a reason as to why that is a fair point.

    The prior comments you refer to become centered my education and professional experience and that is where I draw the line. Moving forward, let's keep the debate to the facts at hand.
    Dec 27, 2014. 09:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Feels The Heat Of Competition [View article]
    So you are saying you were not surprised by recent developments concerning Gilead? In other words, you thought it likely that ESRX would pull Harvoni? That is very inconsistent with your bullish stance on GILD in comments on my previous article.

    Yes I wrote on the possibility that ESRX could favor ABBV's drug in exchange for a discount. However, I also described that outcome as unlikely (a 20% probability if I recall correctly).

    Surprise is defined as: "an unexpected or astonishing event, fact, or thing." An event of 20% probability occurring is by definition unexpected, I fail to see the inconsistency.
    Dec 27, 2014. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Feels The Heat Of Competition [View article]
    ESRX must know that barring a best in class treatment from its formulary could provoke an unpleasant response from its clients.

    So it's a matter of cost/benefit analysis. How much exactly GILD would need to discount Harvoni is unknown, but there must be some level at which the benefit of having the best in class treatment would outweigh the cost of a more expensive drug.
    Dec 27, 2014. 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Feels The Heat Of Competition [View article]
    My trading comment was in response to Goalkick's comment above that the market was not surprised by ABBV and ESRX developments.
    Dec 26, 2014. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Feels The Heat Of Competition [View article]
    Harvoni's listing price is $94,500 for a 12-week course of treatment.

    Viekira Pak's listing price is $83,300.

    According to the WSJ the discount is in the neighborhood of 40% for the ABBV drug, but the exact amount remains undisclosed.

    See: http://on.wsj.com/1BarUu9
    Dec 26, 2014. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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