Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
If the $420 level fails, or the market ever corrects, I would not rule it out. No one's buying it right now. That may change, maybe earnings are a blowout, but right now it's near lows while markets are at highs
Apple Has Become The Most Underrated Stock [View article]
Reposted below is your November 2012 article entitled "The Bear Case For Apple Assumes Stupid". You're first sentence discusses the P/E and how cheap AAPL was then
Again, I have no position in AAPL, and no opinion as to where it will go; at best I think it is a coin toss. But I think it's time to think a little more out of the box and stop relying on P/Es when there is so many more pieces to the puzzle. At the very least, I think its safe to say that the bear case was not "stupid" as you stated
I too have made many mistakes, but perhaps its time to think a little more outside the box. And rather than slam other authors as "desperate" or suggest that a certain outlook is "stupid", especially when it turns out to be correct, maybe just respectably disagree.
Apple Has Become The Most Underrated Stock [View article]
I do think you took them out of context, and it clearly was intentional.
You do not have to ask if there are any bears, the market has already illustrated that there are more bears than bulls.
You imply that I, and the other author, are trying to manipulate the price for our advantage, yet neither of us have a position, while you are long...
You make the point about AAPL being cheap. I completely agree with you, it is cheap, real cheap. But that same argument was made at $500 and at $600. Today it closes at $427 while the market closes near highs. So perhaps its time to ask better questions, or challenge mainstream thinking, rather than manipulating other peoples work to strengthen an argument that has already been made plenty of times.
As I said in my article, I am neither bearish nor bullish on AAPL at this juncture, it could go either way. A beat surely will send it up, however a miss could do the contrary.
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
"I used CSCO, MSFT and NFLX as comparables. Yes, these companies are very different in a number of ways, but I think there are certain similarities that one should consider"
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Amusing comment, but you bring to life some important points. Whether it makes sense or not, often stocks are simply priced on growth expectations, regardless of earnings. NFLX, AMZN, LNKD, all expected to grow in revenue, however earnings still low, yet price continues marching up. I personally ignored the chart and thought I had a bearish fundamental argument on LNKD last summer; that clearly didn't work. Despite GAAP EPS in the pennies, revenues went up, and so did the stock.
Fall of 2012, all of a sudden Samsung S3 is the number one phone, and APPL begins to turn. Does this make sense fundamentally? Probably not, but perception and sentiment are very important. A low P/E means nothing if people don't see growth potential.
Again people have taken me to be overly bearish on AAPL; I am not. I just believe the sentiment has changed and that a resumption of the previous perma-bull trend is probably not likely. I also believe people to be too steadfast in their beliefs, and I simply aim to challenge their thought process and perhaps provide some insight. There may be great long opportunities in AAPL, there may be great short opportunities, but right now the trend is down, and until it changes, one typically is best served by respecting the trend.
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Are you talking about AAPL or BBRY? I have no position in AAPL, and shorted BBRY premarket just above $15. I did however close 2/3's of my position at the close as price hasn't reached the level I believe to be ideal to initiate a bigger short. My short premarket was due to it being up on rumors that weren't confirmed. I will likely short a lot more if 15.50 breaks
AAPL right now does not provide any attractive entries on the long or short side in my opinion. I may trade it intraday, but for a multi day or multi week position, I don't currently see any attractive opportunities. If I were to consider a long I would want to see some relative strength come back, and some sort of sign of increased buying. If $420 holds it will be a double bottom and may prove to be a good long, but trying to pick bottoms is not a profitable trading or investing strategy...
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
To be long in a stock that one believes may go sideways, as I do, is an opportunity cost in my opinion as the money could be allocated elsewhere. One could use that money to short or long another stock, or something entirely different, like buy a cheeseburger with it.
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
A couple people on StockTwits have asked about my disclosure. SA only allows you to pick "long" or "short". I had no bias for either, but disclosed at the bottom I may take either side. I only mentioned AAPL, but I should have mentioned all the stocks. I am a trader, and as mentioned, I take multiple positions daily.
I will disclose that I am short BBRY as of premarket this morning. If have been making bearish comments on it on both my instablog and my StockTwits and Twitter account all day and last night.
I will also disclose that I also may take positions in all other stocks mentioned, as well as any other U.S equity in the next 72 hrs. If anyone has any further questions or concerns, please direct message me
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Apple Has Become The Most Underrated Stock [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Again, I have no position in AAPL, and no opinion as to where it will go; at best I think it is a coin toss. But I think it's time to think a little more out of the box and stop relying on P/Es when there is so many more pieces to the puzzle. At the very least, I think its safe to say that the bear case was not "stupid" as you stated
I too have made many mistakes, but perhaps its time to think a little more outside the box. And rather than slam other authors as "desperate" or suggest that a certain outlook is "stupid", especially when it turns out to be correct, maybe just respectably disagree.
Apple Has Become The Most Underrated Stock [View article]
You do not have to ask if there are any bears, the market has already illustrated that there are more bears than bulls.
You imply that I, and the other author, are trying to manipulate the price for our advantage, yet neither of us have a position, while you are long...
You make the point about AAPL being cheap. I completely agree with you, it is cheap, real cheap. But that same argument was made at $500 and at $600. Today it closes at $427 while the market closes near highs. So perhaps its time to ask better questions, or challenge mainstream thinking, rather than manipulating other peoples work to strengthen an argument that has already been made plenty of times.
As I said in my article, I am neither bearish nor bullish on AAPL at this juncture, it could go either way. A beat surely will send it up, however a miss could do the contrary.
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Thanks
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Apple Has Become The Most Underrated Stock [View article]
Whatever it takes to make a point I guess..
Apple Has Become The Most Underrated Stock [View article]
I had, and continue to have no position. I aim to provide perspective, and that is all. Who is doing the manipulating here sir???
Thanks for the link to my article
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Fall of 2012, all of a sudden Samsung S3 is the number one phone, and APPL begins to turn. Does this make sense fundamentally? Probably not, but perception and sentiment are very important. A low P/E means nothing if people don't see growth potential.
Again people have taken me to be overly bearish on AAPL; I am not. I just believe the sentiment has changed and that a resumption of the previous perma-bull trend is probably not likely. I also believe people to be too steadfast in their beliefs, and I simply aim to challenge their thought process and perhaps provide some insight. There may be great long opportunities in AAPL, there may be great short opportunities, but right now the trend is down, and until it changes, one typically is best served by respecting the trend.
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
I am sorry I can't respond to your comments instantly, and that I must "establish my credibility"
If you don't like my arguments, that's fine. That's what makes a market, buyers and sellers.
All the best
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
AAPL right now does not provide any attractive entries on the long or short side in my opinion. I may trade it intraday, but for a multi day or multi week position, I don't currently see any attractive opportunities. If I were to consider a long I would want to see some relative strength come back, and some sort of sign of increased buying. If $420 holds it will be a double bottom and may prove to be a good long, but trying to pick bottoms is not a profitable trading or investing strategy...
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
I will disclose that I am short BBRY as of premarket this morning. If have been making bearish comments on it on both my instablog and my StockTwits and Twitter account all day and last night.
I will also disclose that I also may take positions in all other stocks mentioned, as well as any other U.S equity in the next 72 hrs. If anyone has any further questions or concerns, please direct message me
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]
Apple: Probably Going To Remain Painful For The Average Investor [View article]