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Bret Jensen  

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  • Wake Me Up When The Second Half Of 2015 Begins
    Yesterday, 11:57 AM SPY, DIA, QQQ 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The trading week has started on a nice up note today as stocks are rallying nicely this Monday.
    • However, markets have had the weakest opening three months to start a year since 2009 with most major indexes flat so far in 2015.
    • This roller coaster ride should continue into the second quarter of the year for myriad reasons and the risk is to the downside right now.
    • Investors should temper their outlooks for the first half of the year as headwinds to a real market rally will not be removed until second half of 2015 at earliest.
  • Beaten-Down Chip Sector Offers Some Value
    Yesterday, 7:53 AM MU, NVDA 17 Comments

    Summary

    • The chip sector has broken down recently, as the space has entered the traditionally slow post-holidays first quarter.
    • The sector has also been hit by Q1 revenue guidance cuts from Intel and Sandisk, as well as predictions that global PC sales will decline five percent in 2015.
    • However, long-term value investors should start to accumulate some cheap names in the space in front of a stronger second half of the year.
  • Housing Is A Good Bet In The Second Quarter
    Sat, Mar. 28 TPH, UCP 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Much of the nation is emerging from a cold winter especially the Northeast where cities like Boston got record snowfall.
    • Despite this, new home sales are showing surprising robustness with sales above 500K two months in a row for the first time since 2008.
    • With a strong jobs market, rising consumer confidence and still near historical low mortgage rates; this could be the year housing activity finally picks up.
    • A strong spring selling season could buoy the fortunes of the homebuilding stocks. Here are two I like here.
  • Revisiting 2 Small Cap Biotech Gems
    Mon, Mar. 23 DVAX, XOMA 41 Comments

    Summary

    • The small cap biotech & biopharma space has been on fire recently and these sectors have been some of the strongest in the market over the past six months.
    • Many of the names profiled in these columns have tripled in the last six to nine months, but I am still finding some attractive plays for the well-diversified portfolio.
    • Here are two more promising small cap gems in these areas that have been on the move recently but have plenty more upside if things fall into place in 2015.
  • Railcar Makers: Deep Value In An Overbought Market
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Mar. 20 GBX 80 Comments

    Summary

    • The collapse in oil prices since the summer has decimated most of the energy sector and a good portion of other industries which serve the energy complex.
    • One of these industries is the rail car manufacturers where oil tank car demand has been a key source of growing revenues in recent years.
    • The sector has been oversold as the industry has little spare capacity, a growing backlog and cheap companies. Below are two stocks that should rebound sharply in the near future.
  • The Long Bull Market Is Showing Cracks - Part II
    Thu, Mar. 12 CLDT, GBX, GILD 36 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has been challenged recently thanks to the accelerating strength in the dollar, downward earnings revisions and possible coming interest rate hikes.
    • It is hard to tell whether this recent decline is another one of the three-to-five percent blips that investors have seen frequently or the start of a larger correction.
    • Regardless of which type of pull back this turns outs to be, there are myriad high quality stocks like those detailed below that make sense to accumulate on dips.
  • General Motors Shifts Into Third Gear
    Wed, Mar. 11 GM 7 Comments

    Summary

    • General Motors stock continues to have a strong start to 2015 as the company puts the vestiges of a trying 2014 behind it.
    • The company just announced a $5 billion stock buyback on top on a recently announced dividend hike of 20% as the automaker increases its appeal to shareholders.
    • Despite the recent rally, the shares represent great value in an overbought market. The company also still has positive catalysts ahead of it.
  • Long Bull Market Showing Cracks
    Wed, Mar. 11 DIA, SPY, QQQ 53 Comments

    Summary

    • After touching all-time highs, the market has celebrated the six year anniversary of the long bull market by selling off over the past few sessions.
    • There are three key triggers for the recent decline. These factors are likely to continue over near future making equities vulnerable at these valuation levels.
    • The question investors have to ask themselves right now is whether this latest decline is just another blip in the long bull market or the start of a larger sell-off.
  • Acquisition Boosts AbbVie's Long Term Prospects
    Fri, Mar. 6 ABBV 31 Comments

    Summary

    • The news of the day is AbbVie's $21 billion purchase of Pharmacyclics of which just less than 60% will be in cash. It was a steep price to pay.
    • However, the acquisition does makes sense for variety of reasons including lessening the company's dependence on its blockbuster drug Humira that will start to come off patent in late 2016.
    • Once investors mull all the potential benefits of this purchase they should come to the conclusion the acquisition boosts AbbVie's long term prospects and pick up this cheap Pharma stock.
  • Lower Gasoline Prices Benefiting General Motors
    Thu, Mar. 5 GM 11 Comments

    Summary

    • After a miserable 2014 spent in the midst of a large recall scandal, the shares of General Motors have been on the move in 2015, posting a strong performance.
    • The stock is being buoyed by a dividend hike, better sentiment as its messy recall fades to the background and solid domestic vehicle sales.
    • The company is also benefiting from lower gas prices, which is pumping up high margin truck and SUV sales. Even after the recent rally, the shares are still very cheap.
  • Case Builds For Owning Amgen
    Wed, Mar. 4 AMGN 27 Comments

    Summary

    • It is getting harder to find bargains in the market as equities continue to rally. One sector I am still finding relative value is large cap biotech & biopharma.
    • I recently took a stake in Amgen after going through its presentation at the 35th annual Cowen & Company Healthcare Conference and reading through analyst reports.
    • The company is becoming a player in biosimilars, has a deep pipeline, is focused on rewarding shareholders as well as improving margins and offers value in an overbought market.
  • MasTec: Oversold Shares Are Ready To Rally
    Tue, Mar. 3 MTZ 11 Comments

    Summary

    • It has been a miserable year for MasTec shareholders as the company's stock price has sunk by half over the last few quarters.
    • The shares have been hit by a slowdown in wireless infrastructure spending and fears (unfounded) that the deep plunge in crude could affect demand from the oil & gas sector.
    • The company recently reported results that easily beat expectations, the shares are cheap and MasTec's long-term growth trajectory is still intact.
    • A significant rally looks likely.
  • 2 Biotechs Under $5 That Could Light Up In 2015
    Tue, Mar. 3 OGXI, SGYP 22 Comments

    Summary

    • The small cap biotech and biopharma sectors are among the most volatile and speculative within the market. They also consistently produce some huge winners.
    • An investor in these spaces should be well-diversified and make myriad small bets on promising concerns to mitigate risks as there will be occasional blow ups in these areas.
    • Below are two attractive but speculative plays within these spaces that have potentially significant upside and are worthy of consideration for portfolio inclusion and sell for less than $5 apiece.
  • 2 Attractive Small-Cap Biotech Stocks On The Verge Of Breakouts
    Tue, Feb. 24 AGEN, ZGNX 31 Comments

    Summary

    • The small cap biotech & biopharma spaces are inherently volatile but have delivered huge winners to my portfolio over the past six months.
    • I believe in building a well-diversified portfolio by taking small stakes across a myriad of promising concerns to help mitigate risk in these high beta sectors.
    • Two of those attractive equities are profiled below. Both have had recent positive catalysts and the stocks look poised to break out and head significantly higher.
  • AbbVie: Attractive Valuation, Growth Prospects & Yield
    Tue, Feb. 24 ABBV 38 Comments

    Summary

    • It is getting harder to find bargains in the market that now trades at ~18 times trailing earnings with negative earnings growth predicted for the first quarter year-over-year.
    • However, I am still finding good value in some of the larger biotech & biopharma names especially those trading at a discount to the overall market multiple.
    • One of these is AbbVie which offers investors the "troika" of attractive features including solid valuations, good growth prospects and one of the highest yields iwithin biopharma.
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Coming Back From The Brink
    Thu, Feb. 19 CBI 111 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Chicago Bridge & Iron has been one of the worst performing in the market over the prior nine months.
    • However, the stock has bounced significantly in recent weeks as sentiment seems to be turning on these beaten down shares.
    • This could be a great entry point for long term value investors as the stock has picked up a key fan, is cheap and has further upside.
  • Celgene: Still An Attractive Core Growth Play
    Wed, Feb. 18 CELG 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Earnings growth is getting hard to come by in this market, with earnings growth currently in the low-single digits year over year during this earnings season.
    • Some of the larger biotech stocks offer a great combination of value and solid growth prospects and are an oasis for earnings-starved investors.
    • One of these core large-cap biotech stocks is Celgene whose shares still offer good value even after tripling in price over the past couple of years.
  • The Market Is Not Cheap
    Mon, Feb. 16 DIA, SPY, QQQ 56 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has rallied recently as equities have erased all of their losses in January and most indices stand at all time highs.
    • This rally has occurred despite earnings estimates for the overall market falling significantly over the past six weeks.
    • The U.S. remains the "best house in a bad neighborhood" but valuations look stretched here and investors should prepare for a three to five percent decline in the overall market.
  • Gilead: No Reason To Panic Here
    Fri, Feb. 13 GILD 166 Comments

    Summary

    • The shares of biotech juggernaut Gilead Sciences have been under pressure recently due to concerns of expanded discounted pricing within its hepatitis C franchise.
    • This has overshadowed the company's recent blow out earnings and the announcement of a massive stock buyback program.
    • Lower prices will also beget a much larger prescription base offsetting the impacts of discounts significantly. Investors are being given a great entry point to buy this cheap biotech stock.
  • Las Vegas Sands: High Yielder Has Put In A Bottom
    Tue, Feb. 10 LVS 42 Comments

    Summary

    • High yielding Las Vegas Sands had a rough 2014 as a crackdown on corruption by new leadership in China led to the worst year for Macau gambling in over decade.
    • The stock recently appears to have bottomed and the shares appear to be oversold. The stock is setting up for a nice risk/reward story in 2015.
    • The company recently substantially boosted its dividend payouts and stock buyback programs and the stock now yields over 4.5%.
    • Although growth in Macau may not return tomorrow or next month, the company is well positioned for long-term growth in Asia and the dividend pays an investor to wait.
  • General Motors: On A Real Roll To Start 2015
    Mon, Feb. 9 GM 22 Comments

    Summary

    • General Motors after spending most of 2014 sputtering due to a major recall scandal has started out 2015 on much stronger footing.
    • The American manufacturing icon delivered a huge earnings beat and also boosted its already generous dividend payout by 20%.
    • The domestic auto market remains robust and lower gasoline prices have meant more sales of higher margin trucks and SUVs. Why this rally could continue for quite a while is explained below.
  • Gilead: Long-Term Investors Should Buy Any Dip
    Thu, Feb. 5 GILD 128 Comments

    Summary

    • Biotech juggernaut Gilead Sciences delivered one of the best earnings reports of the quarter after the bell on Tuesday.
    • Not only did the company beat both the top and bottom line consensus by a good margin; it also announce a large buyback and initiated its first dividend.
    • The stock is up more than 150% over the past two years. Despite rally, this Blue Chip Gem remains one of the cheapest large cap growth stocks in the market.
  • Where To Find Yield In February
    Mon, Feb. 2 ABBV, CLDT 13 Comments

    Summary

    • 10 year treasury yields have plunged to under 1.7% and 30 year treasury yields are at record lows. Negative interest rates exist in much of Europe.
    • Combined with stretched valuations in traditional high yield sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples, income investors are hard pressed to find acceptable yield at reasonable values.
    • Below are a couple of ideas that pay better than three percent yields, have solid growth prospects and are attractively priced for income investors.
  • 2 Biotech Juggernauts That Belong In Every Growth Portfolio
    Sat, Jan. 31 BIIB, CELG 32 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has had a rough start to 2015 as the overall market has dropped some three percent in January as earnings estimates continue to be revised downward.
    • One sector that has held up well in this downdraft is the large cap biotech space which makes sense given earnings growth here is still robust and not softening.
    • Below are two biotech juggernauts that just reported excellent quarterly numbers and belong in every long term growth portfolio.
  • Boeing To Bound Higher Over Time
    Thu, Jan. 29 BA 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Boeing reported standout results Wednesday morning in what has been a very challenging environment for American multinationals this earnings season.
    • The company now has half a trillion order backlog; enough to sustain it for over five years even it received no new orders for a half-decade.
    • The stock should be a long term core holding for large cap growth investors. The stock is selling at a slight discount to the market and has a solid yield.
  • Not Even Apple Can Save This Market
    Thu, Jan. 29 SPY, DIA, QQQ 69 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite blow out earnings from Apple and other Fortune 500 companies on Wednesday, the market posted its second day of deep declines as volatility continue to increase.
    • Three main factors caused equities to sell off; the continued collapse of oil prices, comments from the Federal Reserve and once again Greece.
    • The market continues to feel like it is at a major inflection point and until these issues get resolved investors could be in for a rocky start to 2015.
  • Do You Believe Me Now?
    Tue, Jan. 27 DIA, SPY, QQQ 262 Comments

    Summary

    • For many months I have become less and less sanguine on the prospects for the market to continue its long rally which I have articulated many times recently.
    • It is appearing more and more this pessimistic outlook is not only warranted but more prudent by the day.
    • The market is starting to wake up to the negative impacts of a strong dollar, a collapse in oil prices, tepid global growth prospects and overly optimistic earnings estimates.
    • Equities feel overdue for a significant pull back if not an outright correction. Investors should pay heed and error right now to the side of caution.
  • Greece, 'Europe's Argentina', Strikes Again
    Mon, Jan. 26 IBM, FXE, UUP 31 Comments

    Summary

    • The story of the day are the election results in Greece which had the result of installing the far left Syriza party in power.
    • Although not as dire as this would have been several years ago, these election results will have impacts to global currencies and markets.
    • What I think this means for global markets and some investable ideas off these events are profiled below.
  • Valero Now Belongs In An Income And Value Portfolio
    Sun, Jan. 25 VLO 63 Comments

    Summary

    • One of the few sectors within the energy complex that has held up well in the market in the face of plunging crude has been the refinery space.
    • Valero Energy is the largest domestic refinery company and my pick within the sector for long-term value and income investors.
    • The company is extremely well positioned for the long term, the stock is cheap and now with an over 3% dividend yield can go into an income portfolio as well.
  • 3 Attractive Biotech Picks For 2015
    Fri, Jan. 23 CRIS, GILD, EGRX 46 Comments

    Summary

    • The biotech sector has outperformed the overall market over the past couple of months, and has been one of the stronger areas within equities during that time frame.
    • There are myriad reasons for this development, which I expect to continue over the near term, as the sector has some outstanding growth prospects.
    • Below I offer up three selections that should thrive within a well-diversified biotech/biopharma portfolio in 2015.
  • Market At Its First Major Inflection Point Of 2015 - Final Chapter
    Wed, Jan. 21 AAPL, AGEN, DIA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Over the past two days we have taken a look at the key factors deriving the market down to begin 2015 and some reasons investors should remain optimistic.
    • Today we look at some stocks and sectors that should outperform the overall market in the New Year regardless of whether bulls or bears win this current tug of war.
    • These picks include the easiest single stock decision in the market, some plays in the strongest area of the REIT space and a shout out to some biotech selections.
  • Market At Its First Major Inflection Point Of 2015 - Part II
    Tue, Jan. 20 SPY, DIA, QQQ 25 Comments

    Summary

    • In the second of a three part series we take a look at the key drivers that should keep the market from a deep sell-off even as volatility increases.
    • Among these factors are the United States remains the best house in a bad neighborhood and the lack of investable alternatives.
    • Why domestic economic growth should improve and equities should continue to bump along despite stretched valuations and other worries detailed below.