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Bret Jensen

 
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  • Gilead: Stage Set For Rally
    Today, 8:27 AM GILD 28 Comments

    Summary

    • The dip in the shares of Gilead Sciences last week presented a good opportunity to add additional shares in this cheap biotech juggernaut.
    • The company has several positive catalysts on the horizon that should power the next stage of the stock's rally.
    • Even putting a conservative forward multiple on the company rapidly increasing earnings provides a price target 50% to 60% above the current price of the shares.
  • Chesapeake Energy: The Transformation Continues
    Sat, Oct. 18 CHK 24 Comments

    Summary

    • I have recently added some additional shares in Chesapeake Energy. The company continues to reduce its debt load and transform into a more focused E&P play.
    • This transformation was accelerated this week with a major asset divestiture. Insiders have also been big buyers of the stock in 2014.
    • The shares looks undervalued both on a book and net asset value basis. The stock are also almost 50% below the median price target held by 24 analysts on it.
  • It Is Not Ebola That Is Out Of Control, It Is The Media
    Thu, Oct. 16 AAL, DAL, DIS 71 Comments

    Summary

    • One of the major news stories and drivers of volatility in the markets over the past couple of weeks is Ebola coming to the United States.
    • In three decades of investing I have rarely seen a more overhyped story compared to what the likely impacts this event will have on longer term basis to the economy.
    • This is creating some nice long term opportunities in some stocks and sectors that have sold off on the panic the media has created around Ebola.
  • The End Of Quantitative Easing Strikes Again
    Thu, Oct. 16 SPY, DIA, QQQ 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Once again the market is staging a major decline right on the cusp of the end of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.
    • Similar declines happened during the previous two attempts to exit from this extraordinary liquidity support and remove the "training wheels" from the market and the economy.
    • The markets could be very well be heading to a 10% to 20% decline in the S&P 500 but there are some good opportunities becoming available in the right equities.
  • Positives Mounting For Beaten Down Micron
    Wed, Oct. 15 MU 39 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has seen a big increase in volatility and some big sell-offs in myriad sectors offering some good entry points for patient investors who have cash to employ.
    • One stock that seems to be unfairly punished is Micron and I added some shares in the deep early pullback in trading this morning.
    • The stock has picked up numerous positive comments from analysts recently and the equity is dirt cheap at these levels. The shares are too attractive to not pick up here.
  • The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Of Falling Oil Prices
    Wed, Oct. 15 GPS, DAL, ARCP 37 Comments

    Summary

    • One of the key drivers in the markets over the last month has been the plunge in oil which has been a major factor behind the increasing volatility in equities.
    • There are winners and losers as the result of this recent development. There are also seen and unseen ramifications for markets and the global economy if this trend continues.
    • The good, the bad and the ugly from the impacts from falling oil prices are profiled below along with a few investment recommendations.
  • Exploration And Production Plays: Don't Throw The Baby Out With The Bath Water
    Tue, Oct. 14 UPL, WRES 28 Comments

    Summary

    • During bouts of increased volatility both the market and individual investors can behave irrationality recently demonstrated in the sell-off in airline stocks.
    • This throw the baby out with the mentality can be used to advantage by more nimble and rational investors. The current carnage in the E&P sector is one such opportunity.
    • A couple of cheap, unfairly punished energy producers whose primary production comes from currently more stable natural gas are profiled below.
  • Market Implications Of A Republican Takeover Of The Senate
    Tue, Oct. 14 MDT, JPM 192 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has come under increasing pressure since the S&P 500 closed above 2,000 for the first time some six weeks ago.
    • The main drivers of the decline have centered around worries about global growth, the strengthening dollar, falling oil prices, Ebola and earnings.
    • One possible market event that has been pushed out of the limelight given the current carnage in equities is the approaching mid-term elections.
    • Although it will not have a major impact on the overall direction of equities; a switch in the senate will create some tailwinds for certain sectors of the market.
  • Keeping The Faith In Chicago Bridge & Iron
    Tue, Oct. 14 CBI 96 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Chicago Bridge & Iron has been in a free fall since early summer and is one of the worst performers in my portfolio.
    • Ironically, earnings expectations have remained stable over the past three months and the stock is way under analysts' price targets after its big decline.
    • There are reasons to believe the stock will reward patient investors. Why I have raised my stake recently in this very cheap engineering and construction firm is profiled below.
  • Market Overdue For A Bounce: At Least In Some Sectors
    Mon, Oct. 13 AAL, GPS, M 87 Comments

    Summary

    • The NASDAQ and S&P 500 just posted their worst weeks of performance since May 2012 and there are many reasons the market should remain volatile.
    • However, it does feel the market has reached oversold status; at least in some sectors.
    • Today we look at some stocks that have been oversold but should benefit from the steep decline in oil prices and look primed for a bounce.
  • A Critical Week Ahead For Investors
    Sun, Oct. 12 DIA, SPY, QQQ 57 Comments

    Summary

    • The turmoil in the markets accelerated last week with equities posting one of their worst weekly performances of the year. Some major indexes are now in negative territory for 2014.
    • Myriad factors are driving the increasingly scary decline in equities and next week could be a crucial one for determining whether this is a "hiccup" or something larger.
    • Here are three critical areas investors need to watch very closely next week as I believe they will drive which path equities take in the weeks ahead.
  • Capitulation In Energy Sector Near: Accumulate These High-Yield Plays Now
    Sun, Oct. 12 ARP, MEMP 84 Comments

    Summary

    • The last few weeks have been brutal for investors within the energy sector as oil has entered a bear market with a recent decline exceeding 20%.
    • This decline has caused deep sell-offs in companies within the energy complex. However, for numerous reasons it feels like capitulation in the sector is near.
    • Accumulating shares in well-hedged high yielding upstream energy partnerships seems like a good value play for income investors right now.
  • Apple And Gilead: 2 Ballasts In A Fast Sinking Market
    Fri, Oct. 10 AAPL, GILD 14 Comments

    Summary

    • My portfolio strategy consists of two parts currently. Using a large cash position to incrementally add to beaten down sectors and holding on to my core large cap growth positions.
    • Two of these large cap blue chips are Apple and Gilead. They have been two of the safest ports in an increasingly violent market ocean.
    • There are several reasons why these fortress picks with solid growth prospects will continue to remain good ballasts should the market sink further.
  • Why The Market Topped Out
    Fri, Oct. 10 SPY, DIA, QQQ 188 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has provided investors with volatility levels not seen in quite some time. Some sectors of the market are already in Bear territory.
    • In retrospect, investors were given numerous signs the market was topping recently, which they ignored.
    • Below I outline the signs investors missed and should learn from going forward as they action a prudent game plan for the current market environment.
  • Buying The Gap In The Gap
    Thu, Oct. 9 GPS 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The market continues to yo-yo between deep declines and significant reversals. This is creating some good incremental investment opportunities for the nimble investor on dips.
    • Today's stock on sale is The Gap which is plunging on a overreaction to some negative announcements.
    • From a long term value perspective, the company is offering a great entry point for patient investors.
  • Playing This Yo-Yo Market
    Thu, Oct. 9 AAPL, CLDT, GILD 198 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has gotten increasingly volatile over the past few weeks. The DJIA has moved over 100 points one way or another the majority of the last 15 trading sessions.
    • This volatility could continue for a while as geopolitical concerns, a strengthening dollar, falling oil prices and Europe appearing to be slipping back into recession plague the market.
    • I believe the best strategy right now is not to panic and make only incremental moves. How I am playing this latest bout of volatility in the market is outlined below.
  • 2 Cheap Construction Plays
    Wed, Oct. 8 CBI, TPC 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Sentiment on the market has done a 180 since the S&P 500 hit the 2,000 level. "Risk On" plays like the small cap sector and commodity stocks have fallen precipitously.
    • Some of these declines are understandable given valuations and falling commodity prices. However, one sector that has been unfairly punished is commercial construction where demand is still strong.
    • Profiled below are two cheap construction plays worthy of consideration. Their stocks have fallen hard in recent months but earnings expectations are the same as they were three months ago.
  • All Is Not Well Down On The Farm
    Wed, Oct. 8 AGCO, AGU, DE 29 Comments

    Summary

    • A stronger dollar and concerns about a weakening global economy have played havoc recently with commodity prices and have hammered commodity stocks and oil & gas equities.
    • These same tailwinds have also impacted agricultural products especially corn prices which are at five year lows. This will significantly impact farm incomes and have other effects.
    • An overview of some of the winners and losers due to these falling prices are outlined below.
  • iPhone 'Super Cycle' To Power 20% Upside At Apple
    Tue, Oct. 7 AAPL 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple stock is holding up well today as the market continues to sell off. The tech giant is proving to be a solid "flight to safety" play right now.
    • Also helping is Bank of America/Merrill upgrading the shares today and raising its price target to $120 a share, citing an iPhone "Super Cycle" is upon us.
    • The analyst report had some nice positive points of reason to it. In addition, 20% upside over the next year seems like a likely outcome using conservative assumptions.
  • It Is Getting Ugly Out There
    Tue, Oct. 7 SPY, DIA, QQQ 57 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has encountered increasing volatility since the S&P 500 breached the 2,000 level for the first time this summer.
    • Although the major indexes have held okay since that time, some risk on and cylical sectors have taken some significant hits.
    • There are myriad factors that should give investors caution as global growth seems to be slowing and as the Federal Reserve finally ends quantitative easing this month.
    • Why I am cautious on my near term outlook for the market and how I am positioning my own portfolio are detailed below.
  • A Significant And Unexpected Positive Catalyst For Corning
    Tue, Oct. 7 GLW 59 Comments

    Summary

    • GT Advanced Technologies blindsided shareholders Monday by declaring bankruptcy, triggered by a broken relationship with Apple.
    • This was an unexpected and significant positive catalyst for Corning, a competitor that supplies Gorilla Glass to the mobile industry.
    • Corning was already a cheap stock in the context of the overall market. The demise of its competitor is just one more reason to consider the stock for purchase.
  • Chatham Lodging Trust: A Very Cheap And Core Yield Play
    Mon, Oct. 6 CLDT 21 Comments

    Summary

    • One of the primary trends in the market is a strengthening dollar. This is having numerous impacts including lessening the possibility of rapidly increasing interest rates on economic acceleration.
    • This development bodes well for the real estate investment trust (REIT) space. I particularly like Lodging REITs due to improving business fundamentals including room rate increases and better occupancy levels.
    • One of my favorite lodging REITs is Chatham Lodging Trust. Its combination of low valuation, solid dividend yield and great growth prospects make this REIT a very attractive holding.
  • Gilead: Catalysts In Place For A Big October
    Mon, Oct. 6 GILD 105 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Gilead Sciences has been stuck in a relatively tight trading range over the past six weeks and is consolidating some major gains in 2014.
    • However, the company has several major catalysts that could significantly buoy the shares significantly in October.
    • Those catalysts and why I could see the shares hitting $120 a share over the next month are profiled below.
  • Micron: Barron's Sees $50 A Share In The Cards
    Sun, Oct. 5 MU 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Micron Technologies is a misunderstand stock whose business fundamentals have improved as its core DRAM market has consolidated down to three major manufacturers.
    • This week Barron's provides a solid spotlight piece on Micron that postulates the shares could soon hit $50, some 50% upside from its current price.
    • I hold and have written about the stock over the summer as I believe the shares are cheap and have considerable upside. The bull investment thesis is presented below.
  • Digging Through The Carnage In The Energy Sector
    Sat, Oct. 4 CHK, COP, EXXI 70 Comments

    Summary

    • The energy sector has been hit hard by plunging oil and natural gas prices over the past few months.
    • Larger E&P names have shed 10% to 20% of their value. Many smaller concerns are down 30% to 50% since the beginning of third quarter.
    • There are some excellent long term buying opportunities for patient investors. Here is how I am playing the downturn within my own portfolio.
  • It's Time To Consider ConocoPhillips Again
    Fri, Oct. 3 COP 95 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of ConocoPhillips has declined more than 15% in recent months as falling oil & natural gas prices has hammered the entire E&P sector.
    • The decline has caused the stock to approach a four percent dividend yield; a level it has bounced off of in the past.
    • I think the recent pullback makes ConocoPhillips an actionable investment idea for value and dividend investors. The stock should have more than 15% upside over the coming year.
  • Yes Virginia, The Market Can Go Down - Part II
    Thu, Oct. 2 M, MU, DIA 42 Comments

    Summary

    • As I predicted when it happened, the 2,000 level on the S&P 500 has proven to be a very stubborn resistance level for the market to breach decisively.
    • The recent downturn in the market has accelerated recently due to some of the concerns I highlighted for investors in another column.
    • These worries could remain for a while and the market started the fourth quarter with a thud. What I see ahead and how I am playing the market given these concerns.
  • Energy EXXI: A Major Opportunity For Patient Investors
    Wed, Oct. 1 EXXI 72 Comments

    Summary

    • Exploration & Production stocks suffered significant declines in the recently completed third quarter on the back of falling oil & natural gas prices. The offshore space was hit particularly hard.
    • I have been adding new names and additional shares to existing stakes in this sector recently as valuations have become attractive and energy prices should firm as winter approaches.
    • Today I am profiling an offshore play that has been cut in half recently on a big acquisition and negative sentiment on the sector.
    • This shares are selling for less than half the median price target held by analysts that cover the company. Read why this is my highest risk/highest reward E&P play currently.
  • Sabra Health Care: High-Yield Play At Attractive Valuations
    Wed, Oct. 1 SBRA 13 Comments

    Summary

    • My regular readers know I use the declines caused by secondary offerings to pick up high-yield real estate investment trusts (REITs) at discounted prices.
    • These secondary offerings can create temporary inefficiencies in pricing that can lead to some easy and profitable trading opportunities, which occur quite often in the market.
    • This week's REIT special is an attractive high-yield play in the healthcare space that is off some 20% from recent highs and trading at a discount to peers.
  • Ford: Groping For A Floor
    Tue, Sep. 30 F 67 Comments

    Summary

    • The shares of Ford have sold off some 10% over the past two days after management announced that profits for 2014 will be lower than originally expected.
    • There are myriad reasons to believe that the stock is near a floor, and patient investors will be rewarded for buying additional shares at this discounted entry level.
    • The shares are cheap, the stock provides a 3% dividend yield and 2015 will bring sunnier skies for this American manufacturing icon.
  • 4 Predictions For The Fourth Quarter
    Tue, Sep. 30 GILD, F, SPY 98 Comments

    Summary

    • It was an interesting third quarter as the market struggled despite better than expected earnings results for the second quarter.
    • Small and midcap stocks suffered losses in the quarter and new worries were adding to investors' growing list of concerns.
    • So as we enter the last day of the third quarter, what lies ahead for equities in the fourth quarter? My four predictions for the next quarter are outlined below.
  • Legacy Reserves: RBC Capital's Top High Yield Upstream Play
    Mon, Sep. 29 LGCY 20 Comments

    Summary

    • RBC Capital made Legacy Reserves their top pick in the oil & gas upstream space on Monday.
    • Legacy has a proven record of production growth through strategic acquisitions that the company integrates efficiently to drive a consistent history of impressive growth.
    • For investors comfortable with the tax complexities of master limited partnerships, Legacy's record of growth and over 8% yield are worth considering.