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Bret Jensen

 
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  • How To Play The Polar Vortex Version 2.0
    Tue, Nov. 18 TPC, GNRC, WRES 90 Comments

    Summary

    • Predictions of a mild winter seem to be eroding as it appears Polar Vortex version 2.0 is descending across the nation with most of the country in deep freeze.
    • It is important to remember that last year's horrid winter caused the economy to contract in the first quarter and also produced winners in some cold winter plays.
    • Profiled below are a couple of small cap stocks that could significantly benefit if the country does experience a repeat of last winter.
  • Both I And Barron's Believe Ford Has 30% Upside In 2015
    Tue, Nov. 18 F 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Barron's makes the case for American manufacturer icon Ford in the New Year postulating they should have 30% upside from current levels in 2015.
    • The piece makes some of the same salient points I have made on the investment case for Ford recently as well as a few new ones.
    • Investors looking for a good growth story with a high dividend yield selling at very reasonable valuations should take Ford for a ride in the New Year.
  • 3 Things That Could Upend The Recent Rally
    Mon, Nov. 17 SPY, DIA, QQQ 86 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has staged a sharp rally over the past month after equities became oversold during the downturn that ended one month ago.
    • Equities have been bolstered by better than expected third quarter earnings reports. However, with the market looking somewhat overbought on a historical basis; it is no time to get complacent.
    • Why my biggest worries for the market over the near term are Europe, the impacts from falling oil prices and domestic politics is outlined below.
  • The Fall In Oil Bears Watching Closely
    Sat, Nov. 15 64 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil prices have dropped more than $30 a barrel over the past few months and the plunge has been a key driver of market action recently.
    • The pullback in energy prices has produced many winners and losers within the market and will continue to do so.
    • Investors should be aware of other possible impacts; some detrimental if this decline continues and this development should be watched closely as it will be a key market determinant.
  • Apple: It Is All About Improving Margins
    Sat, Nov. 15 AAPL 59 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple has been one of the primary contributors to the market's rally over the past month, thanks to the successful rollout of iPhone 6 and Apple Pay.
    • Combined with the upcoming Apple Watch, all of these products have one thing in common; they will improve the company's overall margin mix.
    • Improved margins will power Apple stock to even higher levels.
  • 2 Attractive But Speculative Biotech Gems For Consideration
    Fri, Nov. 14 CNAT, AGEN 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Many of the names in the small cap biotech sector seem to be on the move recently posting some of the strongest performances since the biotech sell-off in March.
    • Part of this could be due to fund managers picking up high beta names to catch up with their benchmarks by year end and/or abandoning other "risk on" sectors like energy.
    • Below are profiled two attractive, but speculative biotech gems I hold within my "Shotgun Investing" portfolio that could have major upside if they deliver solid trial results.
  • Las Vegas Sands: A Big Rally In This High-Yield Play Seems Inevitable
    Thu, Nov. 13 LVS 36 Comments

    Summary

    • The shares of gambling juggernaut Las Vegas Sands have declined some $25 a share over the past six months, mainly on a decline in the growth of traffic to Macau.
    • However, based on recent events in China; this growth should return in the near future, which should ignite a rally in this beaten down stock.
    • The company is well-positioned for the continued growth of gambling in Asia, and the shares should appeal to both growth and income investors.
  • Ford: Finally Ready To Roll In 2015
    Wed, Nov. 12 F 53 Comments

    Summary

    • Ford has a challenging year as earnings have declined due to a heavy new model roll out schedule and challenges within its European operations.
    • However as we head into the New Year, this American manufacturing icon should have a better 2015 as sacrifices made in 2014 start to pay off.
    • The stock is cheap, earnings should accelerate next year and shares have a 3.5% dividend yield. Why I see $18 to $20 a share for the stock in 2015.
  • Gilead: Another Competitor Bites The Dust
    Tue, Nov. 11 GILD 132 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite a very successful 2014 that included an almost quadrupling of earnings, investors remain overly pessimistic on the prospects of Gilead Sciences.
    • The stock is cheap, competitors continue to fail to make inroads into its core hepatitis C franchise and sales there are just getting started and should continue to beat expectations.
    • Below is profiled why worries about competing products in the hepatitis C space and around pricing are unwarranted as well as why this biotech juggernaut will continue to head higher.
  • Mid-Term Election Impacts On The Market Revisited
    Tue, Nov. 11 STJ, MDT, DIA 45 Comments

    Summary

    • One week ago mid-term results realigned Congress as well as the power centers of government and will alter the direction of legislation over the next two years.
    • Obviously this change will have ramifications for specific industries as well as the market in general.
    • Now that a week has gone by for both parties to adjust to the new coming political dynamics, a revisit of possible market impacts seems prudent.
  • 3 Small Cap Gems In Energy
    Mon, Nov. 10 WRES, REXX, CPE 31 Comments

    Summary

    • The small cap sector is a volatile space that can provide some of a portfolio's biggest winners over one's investment lifetime.
    • The recent sell-off in the energy sector on the back of plunging oil prices looks like it is offering some good bargains for patient long term growth investors.
    • With natural gas prices on the rise and oil looking like it has or will bottom soon, here are three attractive exploration & production stocks in the small cap space.
  • The Downside Of Falling Oil Prices
    Fri, Nov. 7 CRUD, USO, DIA 57 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent fall of oil and gasoline prices has been a boon to consumers and a factor to the recent rally in the stock market.
    • However, a continued fall in oil prices could have negative impacts to the economy that investors should be aware of.
    • Profiled below are some of the possible negatives should oil not be able to stabilize around current levels and continue to fall.
  • Why The Next Correction Could Come In The First Quarter
    Thu, Nov. 6 MU, AAPL, GILD 82 Comments

    Summary

    • The markets have continued their snap back rally on the back of the mid-term election results and many indices are now at all-time highs.
    • There are a couple of good reasons why equities will continue to rise throughout the end of the year despite being above historical valuation levels.
    • However, early 2015 could bring a different dynamic for investors with a good possibility of a 10% correction in the first quarter for several possible reasons.
  • Mid-Term Election's Impact On The Markets
    Wed, Nov. 5 DIA, SPY, QQQ 103 Comments

    Summary

    • The results of the mid-term elections were more skewed than expected and will drive a change of leadership in the Senate.
    • The initial reaction of the equity markets is positive but somewhat muted as a good portion of the results were already priced into the market via a recent rally.
    • The elections will have some longer-term impacts and should be positive for specific sectors of the market. Here are my quick takes what this election means for investors.
  • Gilead: Stay The Course
    Wed, Nov. 5 GILD 105 Comments

    Summary

    • The shares of biotech juggernaut Gilead Sciences have slid some 5% from recent intra-day highs on worries about a possible competitor and profit taking.
    • Any significant dip in this core biotech holding should be viewed as an additional buying opportunity.
    • The stock is very cheap given growth prospects and the company is on the way to dominate the hepatitis C space like it currently owns the HIV market.
  • Predictions For November - Part II
    Mon, Nov. 3 UUP, UDN, GLD 30 Comments

    Summary

    • October was one of the most eventful months for equities in several years as the market staged the biggest monthly snap back rally since March 2009.
    • There were myriad drivers behind the rapid change in sentiment on stocks, many of which will continue to be present as we enter the new trading month of November.
    • Continuing a theme I first broached earlier this week; several more probable and actionable investment themes for the month are presented below.
  • Why Valero Will Beat Estimates And Move Higher
    Mon, Nov. 3 VLO 27 Comments

    Summary

    • The entire energy sector has continued to be under extreme pressure due to falling oil prices.
    • One part of the sector bucking that trend is the refinery space which is reporting better-than-expected results and showing improving margins on feedstock price decreases.
    • The largest refinery stock in the country, Valero is due to report this Tuesday. I expect this cheap refinery play to beat the consensus and move higher as a result.
  • Predictions For November - Part I
    Mon, Nov. 3 CLDT, LNCO, DIA 135 Comments

    Summary

    • October was one of the most tumultuous months for equities in several years as the market staged the biggest snap back rally since March 2009.
    • Some of these same cross currents will be present in November including the troubles in Europe and myriad third quarter earnings reports.
    • So what lies ahead for investors in November? Profiled below are several predictions on what November should deliver to the market.
  • Looking For My Next Triple In Biotech
    Fri, Oct. 31 AVNR, PGNX, XOMA 34 Comments

    Summary

    • The small biotech and biopharma sectors can be a high risk/high reward space that can frequently produce outsized gains as a recent triple in Avanir Pharmaceuticals shows.
    • It is important to spread one's bets around the sector as the space has frequent implosions along with the occasional five to ten bagger.
    • Below are two small picks in the space that have attractive prospects and make for good high risk/high reward plays within a diversified portfolio in this area.
  • Gilead: Still 40% Upside Ahead
    Fri, Oct. 31 GILD 89 Comments

    Summary

    • As an unadulterated bull on Gilead Sciences, I have been inundated with emails requesting comments since the sales for Sovaldi "disappointed" on Tuesday.
    • Investors should look past the headline numbers and concentrate on the myriad positives coming from this biotech juggernaut.
    • My outlook remains unaltered by these latest results. Why I feel investors can look forward to 40% upside in the stock in the year ahead is profiled below.
  • Micron Gives Investors More Reasons To Buy Its Cheap Shares
    Tue, Oct. 28 MU 67 Comments

    Summary

    • Micron announced it is initiating a $1 billion stock repurchase program and that it will also retire nearly $400 million in convertible debt.
    • This would retire about 4% of the company's outstanding float at current prices.
    • More importantly, Micron's announcement is just one more reason to buy this cheap stock that is already selling at a deep discount to the overall market.
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: The Rebound Has Begun
    Mon, Oct. 27 CBI 48 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of badly beaten down Chicago Bridge & Iron finally started to rebound last week.
    • The catalyst for the rally was a beat on the bottom line of its earnings report with no evidence of the purchase accounting liberties that have dogged its shares.
    • This could be the start of a powerful rally due to how hard the stock has fallen this year, a massive order backlog and a very cheap stock.
  • General Motors: Buy This 2015 Play Now
    Thu, Oct. 23 GM 63 Comments

    Summary

    • General Motors and its shareholders have faced travails in 2014 due to the saga of a major recall crisis.
    • However, given this headwind and challenges in Europe the company is delivering solid results.
    • The fall in price represents a good opportunity as 2015 is shaping up to be a much better year for the company.
    • The stock is cheap, pays a solid dividend, has huge free cash flow and has billionaire fund managers singing its praises as an investment recently.
  • Making Money By Remaining Calm While Others Panic
    Thu, Oct. 23 AAL, ARII, DAL 63 Comments

    Summary

    • One thing I have learned in over 30 years of investing is that investors are prone to responses that reflect emotions and not logic.
    • The sell-offs inspired by this sort or behavior creates myriad profitable opportunities to pick up stocks that are being unfairly punished by others panic.
    • I have found these sort of pull backs have provided some of the most lucrative trades over my decades of investing and this strategy belong in every investors toolbox.
  • Boeing: Earnings Should Have Stock Flying Higher
    Wed, Oct. 22 BA 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Boeing posted quarterly results that easily beat top and bottom line expectations. However, the shares are slightly down after being up big in pre-market trading.
    • I believe this is a good opportunity to accumulate some additional shares in this best of breed American manufacturing icon.
    • The company has a massive and growing order backlog, has consistently beat earnings estimates, has a decent dividend yield and the stock is down $20 a share from yearly highs.
  • Warren Buffett's Bad Day
    Wed, Oct. 22 BA, KO, MCD 56 Comments

    Summary

    • The snap back rally continued Tuesday as the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had their best one day performance in 2014. It was a great day for most investors.
    • One investor that did not share in yesterday's gains was legendary investor Warren Buffett as his core holdings of IBM and Coke were some of the few losers yesterday.
    • These stocks still seem like value traps even after recent declines and show that long term buy and hold investing may not hold the same appeal as it once did.
  • No Mea Culpa Will Be Necessary On Micron
    Tue, Oct. 21 MU 25 Comments

    Summary

    • It appears the sell-off in the chip sector last week based on lowered guidance from Microchip Technology was an overreaction from investors as chip stocks have reported good results.
    • Micron Technology which sold off along with the sector looks like an attractive buying opportunity and not a value trap.
    • The shares are cheap, concerns around DRAM pricing are overblown and the company is starting to pick up increasing positive analyst commentary.
  • Apple Has Its Mojo Back
    Tue, Oct. 21 AAPL 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Stories about how Apple has lost its "mojo" have faded over the last 15 months as the stock of this tech giant has shot upward by over 75%.
    • The stock's rally has been driven by successful launches of new iPhones, massive stock buybacks and a major change in sentiment on this tech stock.
    • With the launch of Apple Pay and great quarterly earnings results, this rally still has room to run given Apple's still cheap valuation and growth drivers.
  • Gilead: Stage Set For Rally
    Mon, Oct. 20 GILD 38 Comments

    Summary

    • The dip in the shares of Gilead Sciences last week presented a good opportunity to add additional shares in this cheap biotech juggernaut.
    • The company has several positive catalysts on the horizon that should power the next stage of the stock's rally.
    • Even putting a conservative forward multiple on the company rapidly increasing earnings provides a price target 50% to 60% above the current price of the shares.
  • Chesapeake Energy: The Transformation Continues
    Sat, Oct. 18 CHK 25 Comments

    Summary

    • I have recently added some additional shares in Chesapeake Energy. The company continues to reduce its debt load and transform into a more focused E&P play.
    • This transformation was accelerated this week with a major asset divestiture. Insiders have also been big buyers of the stock in 2014.
    • The shares looks undervalued both on a book and net asset value basis. The stock are also almost 50% below the median price target held by 24 analysts on it.
  • It Is Not Ebola That Is Out Of Control, It Is The Media
    Thu, Oct. 16 AAL, DAL, DIS 77 Comments

    Summary

    • One of the major news stories and drivers of volatility in the markets over the past couple of weeks is Ebola coming to the United States.
    • In three decades of investing I have rarely seen a more overhyped story compared to what the likely impacts this event will have on longer term basis to the economy.
    • This is creating some nice long term opportunities in some stocks and sectors that have sold off on the panic the media has created around Ebola.
  • The End Of Quantitative Easing Strikes Again
    Thu, Oct. 16 SPY, DIA, QQQ 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Once again the market is staging a major decline right on the cusp of the end of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.
    • Similar declines happened during the previous two attempts to exit from this extraordinary liquidity support and remove the "training wheels" from the market and the economy.
    • The markets could be very well be heading to a 10% to 20% decline in the S&P 500 but there are some good opportunities becoming available in the right equities.