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Bret Jensen

 
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  • 4 Predictions For The Fourth Quarter
    Tue, Sep. 30 GILD, F, SPY 98 Comments

    Summary

    • It was an interesting third quarter as the market struggled despite better than expected earnings results for the second quarter.
    • Small and midcap stocks suffered losses in the quarter and new worries were adding to investors' growing list of concerns.
    • So as we enter the last day of the third quarter, what lies ahead for equities in the fourth quarter? My four predictions for the next quarter are outlined below.
  • Legacy Reserves: RBC Capital's Top High Yield Upstream Play
    Mon, Sep. 29 LGCY 20 Comments

    Summary

    • RBC Capital made Legacy Reserves their top pick in the oil & gas upstream space on Monday.
    • Legacy has a proven record of production growth through strategic acquisitions that the company integrates efficiently to drive a consistent history of impressive growth.
    • For investors comfortable with the tax complexities of master limited partnerships, Legacy's record of growth and over 8% yield are worth considering.
  • 2 Attractive Small Cap Biotech Stocks With Recent Insider Buying
    Mon, Sep. 29 DVAX, HALO 16 Comments

    Summary

    • The small biotech sector is a tricky and volatile to one to invest in due to the complexities of developing new compounds and getting them through the approval process.
    • Two of the catalysts I look for when making new investments in this space is insider buying and a pipeline that contains several "shots on goal".
    • Below are two small biotech stocks that are down significantly from previous highs, have seen some recent insider buying and have interesting products in development.
  • Profiting From Permian Mergers And Acquisitions Activity Accelerating
    Mon, Sep. 29 CPE, FANG 14 Comments

    Summary

    • There was a major acquisition in the Permian Basin announced this morning. This could be the start of the start of increasing M&A activity in the region.
    • Interest rates remain historically low, the region continues to see impressive production growth and infrastructure is getting built out and improving in this shale play.
    • Two Permian plays are profiled below. Both are attractive based on their current growth prospects. They are also cheap given what Encana just paid for Athlon Energy.
  • The Bull Case For Devon Energy Is Getting Stronger
    Sun, Sep. 28 DVN 28 Comments

    Summary

    • The exploration & production sector has been a significant underperformer in the market during the 3rd quarter due to falling oil & natural gas prices.
    • There are many attractive buying opportunities thanks to the recent decline in front of what is looking to be a cold winter. Devon Energy is one of those opportunities.
    • The company is significantly boosting oil production, the stock is cheap given its growth prospects and the bull case for owning this mid-major is very strong right now.
  • Warren Resources: My First Trade For Monday
    Sun, Sep. 28 WRES 35 Comments

    Summary

    • The small energy exploration and production sector has been hit hard this quarter by falling oil & natural gas prices. Many stocks in the sector are down 15% to 25%.
    • After their recent decline, many of these stocks are offering attractive entry points in front of what is shaping up to be another brutal winter.
    • One of these attractive E&P plays is an old friend to my own portfolio named Warren Resources. Why the shares are undervalued is profiled below.
  • Celgene: Jim Cramer's Favorite Biotech Juggernaut
    Fri, Sep. 26 CELG 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Today we will take a look at Celgene, one of the "Big Four" of biotech, and Jim Cramer's current favorite large biotech concern.
    • The company has one of the deepest pipelines in biotech and has years of stellar growth ahead of it.
    • Some of these drugs are highlighted in this article. Why I believe the stock has better than 80% upside over the next three years is highlighted below as well.
  • Micron: Now Poised To Break Out
    Fri, Sep. 26 MU 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Micron Technology has been stuck in a relatively narrow trading range over the prior three months as the equity has become a battleground stock between bulls and bears.
    • I have been firmly planted in the Bull Camp. Quarterly earnings results confirmed that view and removed a major headwind to the next leg of the rally in the stock.
    • The shares are cheap and the company has solid growth prospects. Why the shares are going higher is profiled below.
  • Yes Virginia, The Market Can Go Down - Part I
    Thu, Sep. 25 SPY, IWM, UUP 47 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent market decline is accelerating through midday trading Thursday. This is something I have been cautioning investors against throughout September.
    • There are myriad warning signs that are foreshadowing further declines that should be watch items for equity investors as I believe they will drive market direction over the coming months.
    • What I am watching in the market right now and how I am positioning my own portfolio during this recent uptick in volatility is detailed below.
  • Gilead: Could Japan Power Next Major Leg Of The Rally?
    Wed, Sep. 24 GILD 41 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Gilead Sciences has spent the last month in a consolidation phase. However, the company has received several catalysts recently that should power the next leg of rally.
    • These include two major markets on the verge of being able to distribute its blockbuster drug Sovaldi, a major analyst upgrade and positive Phase III trial results.
    • Despite the huge gains in the stock over the past year, the shares are still cheap compared to the market. Why the shares could power higher by 40% is profiled below.
  • Chesapeake Energy: Barron's Thinks Earnings Can Double Over Next Few Years
    Wed, Sep. 24 CHK 18 Comments

    Summary

    • I have been reading Barron's for thirty years and the magazine consistently provides a good flow of starting points for possible new investments.
    • This week's magazine has a couple of positive paragraphs on the investment case for owning Chesapeake Energy. An opinion I share as I recently purchased the stock.
    • This energy producer's stock is cheap compared with peers, the company is set to make dramatic operational improvements and earnings could more than double over the next four years.
  • Are Investors Positioned For An October Surprise?
    Tue, Sep. 23 SPY, DIA, IWM 55 Comments

    Summary

    • Equities continue to be unable to break above 2,000 on the S&P 500 in a decisive manner. Both the S&P and DJIA had their worst day in a month Monday.
    • Some cracks are starting to develop in the market as we head into October, a month that has historically seen some major sell-offs in equities over the decades.
    • Investors should have some "watch items" on their list over the next month. Why I believe a cautious portfolio stance is warranted at the present time is profiled below.
  • Why DiamondRock Hospitality Remains A Core Part Of My Income Portfolio
    Mon, Sep. 22 DRH 4 Comments

    Summary

    • I have been lightening my allocation to high-yield sectors such as REITs and energy partnerships since the conclusion of the first half of 2014.
    • This is prudent given interest rates should rise from here and valuations are less attractive than a year ago. One exception is lodging REITs given improving fundamentals in the sector.
    • DiamondRock Hospitality has provided over 40% returns, including dividends, since I last did a deep dive on it in June 2013. Why I see further upside ahead is profiled below.
  • Apple: Still Some Mojo And Upside Left
    Mon, Sep. 22 AAPL 57 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Apple is up some 75% since it supposedly lost its "mojo" in 2013. Ironically, it is Apple's competitors in the smartphone space that have been under distress.
    • The tech giant from Cupertino is starting to hit on all cylinders, and has solid growth prospects ahead of it.
    • The stock will not deliver the same returns to shareholders over the next year. However, 15% to 20% upside over the next 12 months seems like a reasonable expectation.
  • Barron's And Goldman Sachs Say Buy Bank Of America
    Sun, Sep. 21 BAC 103 Comments

    Summary

    • The sentiment on Bank of America has grown increasingly positive since it settled mortgage litigation with the federal government.
    • Recently Goldman Sachs and Barron's have chimed in on how the bank's underlying business fundamentals are improving and why the shares are undervalued.
    • I believe the recent uptrend in the stock will continue for myriad reasons. Why I think the shares hit $25 a share over the next two years is profiled below.
  • Yahoo: An Easy Way To Profit From Alibaba
    Sat, Sep. 20 YHOO 86 Comments

    Summary

    • The talk of the street this week was the massive IPO of the Chinese retailer Alibaba which had myriad impacts on the overall market as well.
    • Yahoo unjustifiably declined on Friday and I picked up some long exposure as the stock looks to have little downside from here.
    • Why I think Yahoo is undervalued here given its remaining stake in Alibaba as well as two ways to play this undervaluation.
  • Finding Small Cap Gems Within Biotech
    Fri, Sep. 19 PRTA 31 Comments

    Summary

    • I have received numerous inquiries from readers recently on how I identify potential winners in the small cap biotech, medical device and pharma sectors due to some recent major successes.
    • There are many traits I look for when researching possible purchases. They include strong management teams, solid balance sheets, deep pipelines and potential lucrative positive catalysts.
    • Prothena Corporation is an example of the type of small cap equity that meets the criteria for inclusion into my "shotgun investing" biotech portfolio and is profiled below.
  • Gilead: Still 50% Upside Left In The Stock
    Thu, Sep. 18 GILD 90 Comments

    Summary

    • After rocketing up after a brief downdraft that hit all biotech stocks in early March, Gilead Sciences has been stuck in a trading range over the last month.
    • This has inspired some concerns by investors in this biotech juggernaut. These worries will soon dissipate and the stock should take the next leg higher.
    • Why the shares are still extremely cheap after their stellar performance in 2014 and have 50% upside by the end of 2015 is profiled below.
  • My Contrarian Play On Housing Is Starting To Pay Off
    Wed, Sep. 17 BZH, LEN, TPH 15 Comments

    Summary

    • My contrarian view on homebuilding stocks is starting to play out as major homebuilders are starting to report much better than expected results.
    • In addition, Homebuilder confidence is at its highest levels since late in 2005. These data points are boosting homebuilding stocks considerably in trading today.
    • I believe we are in the early innings of a big move in this sector for myriad reasons. Highlighted below is how I am playing this contrarian thesis.
  • Watching The Elections In Brazil Not Scotland
    Wed, Sep. 17 PBR, VALE, EWZ 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors' eyes are focused on the outcome of the upcoming election in Scotland. Being in Miami, mine are turned on the unfolding election drama down south in Brazil.
    • The election of a pro-business outsider could have major ramifications for the Brazilian stock market which has vastly underperformed world equity markets for years.
    • Profiled below is how I am playing a possible "regime" change down south and why I think this is an actionable investment event.
  • 2 Small Exploration And Production Plays Being Bolstered By Upward Production Guidance
    Tue, Sep. 16 AXAS, REXX 19 Comments

    Summary

    • The E&P sector has been under pressure over the summer due primarily to falling oil and natural gas prices.
    • I have been adding to some of my smaller plays in the space as they are attractively valued, have fast rising production and should do well during the upcoming winter.
    • Two of these companies are profiled below. Both firms recently upped their production guidance and today's rallies in their stocks should continue.
  • The Time For Caution Has Arrived
    Tue, Sep. 16 DIA, SPY, QQQ 121 Comments

    Summary

    • The S&P 500 at the 2,000 level is looking like a strong resistance point for the market and we are starting to see divergence in equities.
    • "Risk On" sectors and stocks are behaving very poorly at the moment and there are several other factors that merit a cautious stance at these levels.
    • These factors are highlighted below in addition to how I am positioning my portfolio in advance of what I think will be greater volatility in the months ahead.
  • Apple: The Way Now Open To $120
    Mon, Sep. 15 AAPL 88 Comments

    Summary

    • The unveiling of the Apple Watch, Apple Pay and the new versions of the iconic iPhone franchise garnered much press last week during and after the big "reveal".
    • Apple stockholders can now return to normalcy and concentrate on the core trends that will continue to generate shareholder value.
    • Despite an over 75% run over the past five quarters, the shares are still cheap compared to the market. Why I believe they will hit $120 over the next year.
  • Could Alibaba's IPO Suck The Life From Amazon?
    Sun, Sep. 14 AMZN 57 Comments

    Summary

    • The big story next week in the market is the upcoming massive Initial Public Offering of Chinese online retailing giant Alibaba.
    • This offering has already started to have impact on a couple of large U.S. based online stocks and these could grow next week when Alibaba debuts.
    • The stock of Amazon looks very vulnerable to a much deeper decline due to myriad reasons and should be avoided by investors at these levels.
  • Devon Energy: Seasonal Trends Indicate Significant Upside From Here
    Sat, Sep. 13 DVN 40 Comments

    Summary

    • Exploration & Production companies are down sharply this summer on back of a $10 a barrel decline in oil prices.
    • I have been allocating more funds to these beaten down E&P plays as it appears another harsh winter is on the way which will bolster the sector.
    • One of these energy concerns is Devon Energy. The stock is well-positioned to deliver 15% to 25% upside by year end given historical trends and production growth.
  • American Eagle Energy: Shares Could Be Buoyed By Another Brutal Winter
    Fri, Sep. 12 AMZG 58 Comments

    Summary

    • After a mild summer, it is looking more and more like the nation could be in for a repeat of last year's brutal winter.
    • This could bolster the fortunes of E&P plays whose stocks have been hit by the recent decline in oil and natural gas prices.
    • I like American Eagle Energy at current levels. The stock is selling way below analysts' price targets and its net asset value.
  • Callon Petroleum: Fast Growing Permian Play Selling At A Big Discount
    Fri, Sep. 12 CPE 20 Comments

    Summary

    • I recently added shares in my stake in fast growing Permian play Callon Petroleum after the stock had a big pullback earlier this week due to a secondary offering.
    • The proceeds from the offering will be used to pay for a recent purchase that will substantially boost Callon's production and reserves.
    • This small producer is selling at a considerable discount to the overall market as well as analysts' price target. The recent decline is a great entry point to purchase stock.
  • Transocean: Barron's Believes Beaten Down Shares Have 33% Upside
    Wed, Sep. 10 RIG 99 Comments

    Summary

    • Barron's did a follow up on beaten down driller Transocean this weekend stating some recent positive events are being ignored by investors.
    • The piece predicts 33% upside for patient investors willing to wait for sentiment and fundamentals to improve in the offshore space.
    • I have continued to add to my position in this beaten down driller. The shares are cheap, yield nearly 8% and have solid technical support at these levels.
  • Armada Hoffler Properties: High-Yield Buy On Secondary Weakness
    Wed, Sep. 10 AHH 14 Comments

    Summary

    • I have found that initiating positions in high-yield real estate investment trusts (REITs) when they sell off on new secondary offerings is a sound investment strategy.
    • Multi-use REIT Armada Hoffler Properties is down some 5% in early trading Wednesday on a new secondary offering, and is offering a solid entry point.
    • This REIT provides a 7% yield, is seeing strong business metrics and is already priced at a significant discount to competitors.
  • KKR: Solid Value, Great Yield
    Tue, Sep. 9 KKR 59 Comments

    Summary

    • Continuing on with our increasing allocation to the financial sector theme of the day, the value case for buying Kohlberg Kravis Roberts is presented below.
    • This high-yielding alternative investment play is offering income investors a solid entry point, after declining some 15% from highs earlier in the year.
    • The shares provide a solid combination of attractive valuations and an over 8% annual payout that look good in a fully valued market.
  • JPMorgan: A Solid Value In This Fully Valued Market
    Tue, Sep. 9 JPM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • It is getting harder to find bargains in the market with the S&P 500 hovering at the 2,000 level and with stocks going for 16-17 this year's earnings.
    • I am lightening my exposure to REITs and increasing my allocation to major banks as net interest margins should benefit as interest rates look to rise from here.
    • One major bank that is offering solid value in a fully valued market is JPMorgan. Why I expect the shares to rise 12% to 15% is highlighted below.
  • Don't Be Foolish On Ford
    Mon, Sep. 8 F 57 Comments

    Summary

    • Ford stock is down more than 2% to start the trading week on an analyst downgrade from Morgan Stanley.
    • This cheap automaker has become a battleground stock among analysts recently but I think the bullish camp will ultimately be proven right on their view on Ford.
    • The company is setting up for a much stronger year in 2015 and why today's sell-off is a good opportunity to pick up a few more shares is highlighted below.