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Bret Jensen

 
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  • Why DiamondRock Hospitality Remains A Core Part Of My Income Portfolio
    Mon, Sep. 22 DRH 4 Comments

    Summary

    • I have been lightening my allocation to high-yield sectors such as REITs and energy partnerships since the conclusion of the first half of 2014.
    • This is prudent given interest rates should rise from here and valuations are less attractive than a year ago. One exception is lodging REITs given improving fundamentals in the sector.
    • DiamondRock Hospitality has provided over 40% returns, including dividends, since I last did a deep dive on it in June 2013. Why I see further upside ahead is profiled below.
  • Apple: Still Some Mojo And Upside Left
    Mon, Sep. 22 AAPL 57 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Apple is up some 75% since it supposedly lost its "mojo" in 2013. Ironically, it is Apple's competitors in the smartphone space that have been under distress.
    • The tech giant from Cupertino is starting to hit on all cylinders, and has solid growth prospects ahead of it.
    • The stock will not deliver the same returns to shareholders over the next year. However, 15% to 20% upside over the next 12 months seems like a reasonable expectation.
  • Barron's And Goldman Sachs Say Buy Bank Of America
    Sun, Sep. 21 BAC 103 Comments

    Summary

    • The sentiment on Bank of America has grown increasingly positive since it settled mortgage litigation with the federal government.
    • Recently Goldman Sachs and Barron's have chimed in on how the bank's underlying business fundamentals are improving and why the shares are undervalued.
    • I believe the recent uptrend in the stock will continue for myriad reasons. Why I think the shares hit $25 a share over the next two years is profiled below.
  • Yahoo: An Easy Way To Profit From Alibaba
    Sat, Sep. 20 YHOO 90 Comments

    Summary

    • The talk of the street this week was the massive IPO of the Chinese retailer Alibaba which had myriad impacts on the overall market as well.
    • Yahoo unjustifiably declined on Friday and I picked up some long exposure as the stock looks to have little downside from here.
    • Why I think Yahoo is undervalued here given its remaining stake in Alibaba as well as two ways to play this undervaluation.
  • Finding Small Cap Gems Within Biotech
    Fri, Sep. 19 PRTA 35 Comments

    Summary

    • I have received numerous inquiries from readers recently on how I identify potential winners in the small cap biotech, medical device and pharma sectors due to some recent major successes.
    • There are many traits I look for when researching possible purchases. They include strong management teams, solid balance sheets, deep pipelines and potential lucrative positive catalysts.
    • Prothena Corporation is an example of the type of small cap equity that meets the criteria for inclusion into my "shotgun investing" biotech portfolio and is profiled below.
  • Gilead: Still 50% Upside Left In The Stock
    Thu, Sep. 18 GILD 86 Comments

    Summary

    • After rocketing up after a brief downdraft that hit all biotech stocks in early March, Gilead Sciences has been stuck in a trading range over the last month.
    • This has inspired some concerns by investors in this biotech juggernaut. These worries will soon dissipate and the stock should take the next leg higher.
    • Why the shares are still extremely cheap after their stellar performance in 2014 and have 50% upside by the end of 2015 is profiled below.
  • My Contrarian Play On Housing Is Starting To Pay Off
    Wed, Sep. 17 BZH, LEN, TPH 15 Comments

    Summary

    • My contrarian view on homebuilding stocks is starting to play out as major homebuilders are starting to report much better than expected results.
    • In addition, Homebuilder confidence is at its highest levels since late in 2005. These data points are boosting homebuilding stocks considerably in trading today.
    • I believe we are in the early innings of a big move in this sector for myriad reasons. Highlighted below is how I am playing this contrarian thesis.
  • Watching The Elections In Brazil Not Scotland
    Wed, Sep. 17 PBR, VALE, EWZ 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors' eyes are focused on the outcome of the upcoming election in Scotland. Being in Miami, mine are turned on the unfolding election drama down south in Brazil.
    • The election of a pro-business outsider could have major ramifications for the Brazilian stock market which has vastly underperformed world equity markets for years.
    • Profiled below is how I am playing a possible "regime" change down south and why I think this is an actionable investment event.
  • 2 Small Exploration And Production Plays Being Bolstered By Upward Production Guidance
    Tue, Sep. 16 AXAS, REXX 20 Comments

    Summary

    • The E&P sector has been under pressure over the summer due primarily to falling oil and natural gas prices.
    • I have been adding to some of my smaller plays in the space as they are attractively valued, have fast rising production and should do well during the upcoming winter.
    • Two of these companies are profiled below. Both firms recently upped their production guidance and today's rallies in their stocks should continue.
  • The Time For Caution Has Arrived
    Tue, Sep. 16 DIA, SPY, QQQ 121 Comments

    Summary

    • The S&P 500 at the 2,000 level is looking like a strong resistance point for the market and we are starting to see divergence in equities.
    • "Risk On" sectors and stocks are behaving very poorly at the moment and there are several other factors that merit a cautious stance at these levels.
    • These factors are highlighted below in addition to how I am positioning my portfolio in advance of what I think will be greater volatility in the months ahead.
  • Apple: The Way Now Open To $120
    Mon, Sep. 15 AAPL 88 Comments

    Summary

    • The unveiling of the Apple Watch, Apple Pay and the new versions of the iconic iPhone franchise garnered much press last week during and after the big "reveal".
    • Apple stockholders can now return to normalcy and concentrate on the core trends that will continue to generate shareholder value.
    • Despite an over 75% run over the past five quarters, the shares are still cheap compared to the market. Why I believe they will hit $120 over the next year.
  • Could Alibaba's IPO Suck The Life From Amazon?
    Sun, Sep. 14 AMZN 57 Comments

    Summary

    • The big story next week in the market is the upcoming massive Initial Public Offering of Chinese online retailing giant Alibaba.
    • This offering has already started to have impact on a couple of large U.S. based online stocks and these could grow next week when Alibaba debuts.
    • The stock of Amazon looks very vulnerable to a much deeper decline due to myriad reasons and should be avoided by investors at these levels.
  • Devon Energy: Seasonal Trends Indicate Significant Upside From Here
    Sat, Sep. 13 DVN 40 Comments

    Summary

    • Exploration & Production companies are down sharply this summer on back of a $10 a barrel decline in oil prices.
    • I have been allocating more funds to these beaten down E&P plays as it appears another harsh winter is on the way which will bolster the sector.
    • One of these energy concerns is Devon Energy. The stock is well-positioned to deliver 15% to 25% upside by year end given historical trends and production growth.
  • American Eagle Energy: Shares Could Be Buoyed By Another Brutal Winter
    Fri, Sep. 12 AMZG 85 Comments

    Summary

    • After a mild summer, it is looking more and more like the nation could be in for a repeat of last year's brutal winter.
    • This could bolster the fortunes of E&P plays whose stocks have been hit by the recent decline in oil and natural gas prices.
    • I like American Eagle Energy at current levels. The stock is selling way below analysts' price targets and its net asset value.
  • Callon Petroleum: Fast Growing Permian Play Selling At A Big Discount
    Fri, Sep. 12 CPE 21 Comments

    Summary

    • I recently added shares in my stake in fast growing Permian play Callon Petroleum after the stock had a big pullback earlier this week due to a secondary offering.
    • The proceeds from the offering will be used to pay for a recent purchase that will substantially boost Callon's production and reserves.
    • This small producer is selling at a considerable discount to the overall market as well as analysts' price target. The recent decline is a great entry point to purchase stock.
  • Transocean: Barron's Believes Beaten Down Shares Have 33% Upside
    Wed, Sep. 10 RIG 100 Comments

    Summary

    • Barron's did a follow up on beaten down driller Transocean this weekend stating some recent positive events are being ignored by investors.
    • The piece predicts 33% upside for patient investors willing to wait for sentiment and fundamentals to improve in the offshore space.
    • I have continued to add to my position in this beaten down driller. The shares are cheap, yield nearly 8% and have solid technical support at these levels.
  • Armada Hoffler Properties: High-Yield Buy On Secondary Weakness
    Wed, Sep. 10 AHH 14 Comments

    Summary

    • I have found that initiating positions in high-yield real estate investment trusts (REITs) when they sell off on new secondary offerings is a sound investment strategy.
    • Multi-use REIT Armada Hoffler Properties is down some 5% in early trading Wednesday on a new secondary offering, and is offering a solid entry point.
    • This REIT provides a 7% yield, is seeing strong business metrics and is already priced at a significant discount to competitors.
  • KKR: Solid Value, Great Yield
    Tue, Sep. 9 KKR 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Continuing on with our increasing allocation to the financial sector theme of the day, the value case for buying Kohlberg Kravis Roberts is presented below.
    • This high-yielding alternative investment play is offering income investors a solid entry point, after declining some 15% from highs earlier in the year.
    • The shares provide a solid combination of attractive valuations and an over 8% annual payout that look good in a fully valued market.
  • JPMorgan: A Solid Value In This Fully Valued Market
    Tue, Sep. 9 JPM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • It is getting harder to find bargains in the market with the S&P 500 hovering at the 2,000 level and with stocks going for 16-17 this year's earnings.
    • I am lightening my exposure to REITs and increasing my allocation to major banks as net interest margins should benefit as interest rates look to rise from here.
    • One major bank that is offering solid value in a fully valued market is JPMorgan. Why I expect the shares to rise 12% to 15% is highlighted below.
  • Don't Be Foolish On Ford
    Mon, Sep. 8 F 57 Comments

    Summary

    • Ford stock is down more than 2% to start the trading week on an analyst downgrade from Morgan Stanley.
    • This cheap automaker has become a battleground stock among analysts recently but I think the bullish camp will ultimately be proven right on their view on Ford.
    • The company is setting up for a much stronger year in 2015 and why today's sell-off is a good opportunity to pick up a few more shares is highlighted below.
  • Barron's Could Boost Boeing
    Mon, Sep. 8 BA 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Barron's, the widely followed magazine on the markets, had a very positive piece on aerospace giant Boeing this weekend which could boost the stock this week.
    • The piece accurately highlights the American icon's long term earnings visibility, huge order backlog and its ideal position to continue to benefit from faster growth coming from emerging markets.
    • Their view on Boeing echoes my own. The shares represent a solid value in what I consider to be a slightly overvalued market. Why I own the stock highlighted below.
  • Are Investors Positioned For A Brutal Winter?
    Fri, Sep. 5 GNRC, UPL 262 Comments

    Summary

    • With the opening of the NFL season just after the long Labor Day weekend, winter is hardly on most investors' minds right now.
    • However, after a mild summer across most of the country and a recently issued forecast from the Farmer's Almanac; another brutal winter might be on the way.
    • Another harsh winter would have numerous impacts, and is an actionable investment theme. Here is how I would play this possibility.
  • Using Secondaries For Profit And Yield
    Thu, Sep. 4 MEMP, CPLP 30 Comments

    Summary

    • I want to revisit an investment strategy involving secondary offerings as I believe there are some significant inefficiencies in this market.
    • These inefficiencies can lead to some easy and profitable trading opportunities.
    • Whether looking to turn a quick profit or gain a lower entry point to purchase an attractive high yield equity; I have found the strategy has been a consistent winner.
  • Apple: Finally A Buyable Dip
    Thu, Sep. 4 AAPL 120 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Apple had its worst one day decline in seven months on a combination of negative factors.
    • Wednesday's sell-off finally offers a buyable dip as none of the reasons the stock dropped today are likely to have long term impacts.
    • Why Apple still represents solid value in this market and should rebound in short order is outlined below.
  • Positioning For A Stronger Dollar
    Wed, Sep. 3 AEG, MCD, FXY 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Interest rates have started to tick up recently and the dollar has strengthened noticeably against both the euro and the yen as well.
    • These trends could remain in place or accelerate for myriad reasons in coming months and will have several impacts to the markets.
    • A few actions investors should take with their portfolios to counteract these movements are outlined below.
  • Gilead: No Stopping This Juggernaut
    Wed, Sep. 3 GILD 62 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Gilead Sciences has risen some 60% over the past five months and almost 80% during the previous 12 months.
    • So given this huge rise in the shares; is the stock still undervalued and are further gains still ahead?
    • We will take a look at the company and its stock from a couple of different angles to come up with a solid price range and recommendation for shareholders.
  • American Realty Capital Properties: High-Yield Play Ready To Narrow Valuation Discount To Peers
    Tue, Sep. 2 ARCP 56 Comments

    Summary

    • I have lightened my exposure to real estate investment trusts (REITs) over the past few months due to their large gains in the first half of 2014.
    • Interest rates are more likely to rise than decline further from current levels which will provide a headwind to high-yield sectors such as REITS.
    • I have made some exceptions such as maintaining my position in the largest single tenant REIT in the market, American Realty Capital Partners.
    • This REIT is selling at a significant valuation discount to its two biggest peers, pays a higher dividend yield and should spend the next 12 months narrowing this discount.
  • Bank Of America: Stage Set For Substantial Upside
    Tue, Sep. 2 BAC 85 Comments

    Summary

    • Richard Pzena of Pzena Investment Management was interviewed in Barron's this weekend. Mr. Pzena manages billions of dollars and see major positive catalysts for major banks in the years ahead.
    • One of these is Bank of America which is a substantial position within my own portfolio and recently announced a huge settlement with the federal government.
    • After a pretty dismal 2014, the shares are undervalued and should bounce bank in 2015 and in the years ahead for a variety of reasons.
  • Transocean: High-Yield Contrarian Play Continues To Bottom
    Sat, Aug. 30 RIG 80 Comments

    Summary

    • Large offshore driller Transocean seems to be slowly building a bottom after a recent decline.
    • Sentiment on it and most offshore plays right now is extremely negative given concerns around overcapacity and the prospects for day rates.
    • However, Transocean pays almost an 8% dividend and has some other longer term catalysts that make it worth accumulating for patient contrarian investors.
  • Tutor Perini: Construction Giant Still Offers Value And Growth
    Fri, Aug. 29 TPC 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of construction firm Tutor Perini has advanced some 60% over the last year as the company has continued to deliver earnings and revenue gains.
    • Tutor Perini continues to benefit from a diversification of income streams and is seeing the highest order backlog since before the financial crisis.
    • Despite the stock's recent rise, the shares are still cheap compared to the overall market and the company's accelerating growth prospects.
  • Market Posts Best August In 14 Years. Why Don't Investors Feel Better?
    Fri, Aug. 29 AAPL, ACHN, GILD 111 Comments

    Summary

    • The market is about to post its best August performance in 14 years and the S&P 500 stands near an all-time high of 2,000.
    • 2014 continues to add to gains in shareholders' portfolios after 2013 produced over 30% returns in the market.
    • So given the recent performance of the market, why don't investors feel better? Three core reasons and my market game plan for the months ahead are highlighted below.
  • LinnCo: 10% Yield And Solid Growth Rate Hard To Resist
    Fri, Aug. 29 LNCO 48 Comments

    Summary

    • After holding Linn Energy off and on over the past year and a half, I bought my first shares in LinnCo recently.
    • This entity has a nice earnings trajectory and also pays an almost 10% distribution yield paid monthly.
    • Why I think these shares provide a solid income opportunity with attractive valuations in what I consider a slightly overvalued market.