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Bret Jensen  

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  • Positioning For A Stronger Dollar
    Sep. 3, 2014 AEG, MCD, FXY 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Interest rates have started to tick up recently and the dollar has strengthened noticeably against both the euro and the yen as well.
    • These trends could remain in place or accelerate for myriad reasons in coming months and will have several impacts to the markets.
    • A few actions investors should take with their portfolios to counteract these movements are outlined below.
  • Gilead: No Stopping This Juggernaut
    Sep. 3, 2014 GILD 62 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Gilead Sciences has risen some 60% over the past five months and almost 80% during the previous 12 months.
    • So given this huge rise in the shares; is the stock still undervalued and are further gains still ahead?
    • We will take a look at the company and its stock from a couple of different angles to come up with a solid price range and recommendation for shareholders.
  • American Realty Capital Properties: High-Yield Play Ready To Narrow Valuation Discount To Peers
    Sep. 2, 2014 ARCP 56 Comments

    Summary

    • I have lightened my exposure to real estate investment trusts (REITs) over the past few months due to their large gains in the first half of 2014.
    • Interest rates are more likely to rise than decline further from current levels which will provide a headwind to high-yield sectors such as REITS.
    • I have made some exceptions such as maintaining my position in the largest single tenant REIT in the market, American Realty Capital Partners.
    • This REIT is selling at a significant valuation discount to its two biggest peers, pays a higher dividend yield and should spend the next 12 months narrowing this discount.
  • Bank Of America: Stage Set For Substantial Upside
    Sep. 2, 2014 BAC 85 Comments

    Summary

    • Richard Pzena of Pzena Investment Management was interviewed in Barron's this weekend. Mr. Pzena manages billions of dollars and see major positive catalysts for major banks in the years ahead.
    • One of these is Bank of America which is a substantial position within my own portfolio and recently announced a huge settlement with the federal government.
    • After a pretty dismal 2014, the shares are undervalued and should bounce bank in 2015 and in the years ahead for a variety of reasons.
  • Transocean: High-Yield Contrarian Play Continues To Bottom
    Aug. 30, 2014 RIG 80 Comments

    Summary

    • Large offshore driller Transocean seems to be slowly building a bottom after a recent decline.
    • Sentiment on it and most offshore plays right now is extremely negative given concerns around overcapacity and the prospects for day rates.
    • However, Transocean pays almost an 8% dividend and has some other longer term catalysts that make it worth accumulating for patient contrarian investors.
  • Tutor Perini: Construction Giant Still Offers Value And Growth
    Aug. 29, 2014 TPC 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of construction firm Tutor Perini has advanced some 60% over the last year as the company has continued to deliver earnings and revenue gains.
    • Tutor Perini continues to benefit from a diversification of income streams and is seeing the highest order backlog since before the financial crisis.
    • Despite the stock's recent rise, the shares are still cheap compared to the overall market and the company's accelerating growth prospects.
  • Market Posts Best August In 14 Years. Why Don't Investors Feel Better?
    Aug. 29, 2014 AAPL, ACHN, GILD 111 Comments

    Summary

    • The market is about to post its best August performance in 14 years and the S&P 500 stands near an all-time high of 2,000.
    • 2014 continues to add to gains in shareholders' portfolios after 2013 produced over 30% returns in the market.
    • So given the recent performance of the market, why don't investors feel better? Three core reasons and my market game plan for the months ahead are highlighted below.
  • LinnCo: 10% Yield And Solid Growth Rate Hard To Resist
    Aug. 29, 2014 LNCO 48 Comments

    Summary

    • After holding Linn Energy off and on over the past year and a half, I bought my first shares in LinnCo recently.
    • This entity has a nice earnings trajectory and also pays an almost 10% distribution yield paid monthly.
    • Why I think these shares provide a solid income opportunity with attractive valuations in what I consider a slightly overvalued market.
  • When Will M&A Come To The Hepatitis C Space?
    Aug. 28, 2014 CNAT, GILD, ACHN 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Biotech InterMune was taken out by Roche for over $8 billion yesterday in a deal that had an almost 40% buyout premium.
    • Given the strength of M&A this year and the huge interest in Hepatitis C space thanks to Gilead's Sovaldi, it is logical to assume this space could see M&A activity.
    • Two possible takeout in the Hepatitis C space are profiled below.
  • How Chesapeake Energy Plans To Unlock Substantial Shareholder Value
    Aug. 27, 2014 CHK 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Over the last year or two, I have made some huge gains by buying mid-cap energy concerns that were starting to transform their business models.
    • These big winners included Devon Energy and Hess Corporation, which created substantial shareholder value by simplifying their portfolios and becoming more "oily" in their production.
    • Chesapeake Energy is in the early innings of executing the same basic game plan. Why I think the shares have significant upside in the years ahead is profiled below.
  • S&P 2,000: Speed Bump Or Top?
    Aug. 27, 2014 SPY, LOCO, GILD 58 Comments

    Summary

    • The S&P 500 closed at over 2,000 for the first time in its history Tuesday as the market is tracking to its best August performance in 14 years.
    • The market could be at an inflection point as cases can easily be made for Bull and Bear scenarios for equities in the months ahead.
    • So where does the market go after achieving this milestone? My outlook and strategy for dealing for the market for the rest of 2014 is outlined below.
  • Time To Buy More Pacific Drilling
    Aug. 27, 2014 PACD 45 Comments

    Summary

    • One of worst performing sectors of the market in 2014 has been offshore drillers due to worries about overcapacity and possible impacts to day rates.
    • Being a contrarian investor, I have continued to build positions in the sector including recently adding to my stake in Pacific Drilling.
    • This Luxembourg based offshore drilling play has a new fleet, cheap valuations, great growth prospects and some possible significant payouts in 2015.
  • Ultra Petroleum: Buying This Cheap Natural Gas Play
    Aug. 26, 2014 UPL 58 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Ultra Petroleum has been rallying since a recent major and accretive purchase.
    • There are many reasons to be increasingly positive on Ultra's longer-term prospects.
    • Based on its earnings trajectory, the shares are very cheap and should have significant upside from current levels.
  • Summit Hotel Properties: Still An Attractive Yield Play
    Aug. 24, 2014 INN 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Real estate investment trust Summit Hotel Properties is up some 20%, including dividends, since I provided a "deep dive" on it 14 months.
    • The company continues to relentlessly execute against its strategy of expanding into top lodging markets.
    • The shares are undervalued to peers, provide an over 4% yield and still are attractive on a valuation perspective.
  • Abraxas Petroleum: My First Trade For Monday
    Aug. 24, 2014 AXAS 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Recently a small cap E&P concern I took huge profits in earlier in the year has popped back onto my radar screen again after a recent 15% decline.
    • This company, Abraxas Petroleum, is executing well and seeing huge production growth which is translating into major earnings increases.
    • Abraxas is profiled below along with several factors that should boost the stock significantly over the coming 6-12 months.
  • Halliburton: 10% Decline Is A Solid Entry Point
    Aug. 22, 2014 HAL 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent pullback in oil and natural gas prices has negatively impacted the energy sector over the last month, causing it to underperform the overall market.
    • Halliburton has been caught up in this decline by the energy sector, despite strong quarterly results and several analyst upgrades.
    • The recent 10% sell-off in this pre-eminent energy services concern looks like an actionable time to accumulate shares in this cheap stock with good growth prospects.
  • 3 Attractive Energy Names For Under $10 A Share
    Aug. 22, 2014 AMZG, CPE, EOX 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Exploration and Production companies have sold off over the past month as prices for oil and natural gas have come down recently.
    • These declines are providing long term growth investors some solid entry points to buy into the continuing boom in domestic energy production.
    • Profiled below are three attractive, fast growing small cap E&P plays which are all now priced at under $10 a share.
  • Ashford Hospitality Trust: A Strong Yield Play In Lodging
    Aug. 21, 2014 AHT 13 Comments

    Summary

    • I have been lightening up on some of the real estate investment trusts within my income portfolio as they have had large gains and interest rates should rise from here.
    • One exception to this is real estate investment trusts in the lodging space as the business fundamentals in this area are very strong right now.
    • Ashford Hospitality Trust is a strong play within this lodging area with cheap valuations, solid management and a nice and soon to be increasing yield.
  • Microsoft: Time To Take Profits
    Aug. 21, 2014 MSFT 52 Comments

    Summary

    • Microsoft has had a huge run in the market over the past two years and has served my portfolio well over that time frame.
    • However, after the stock's over 80% returns of the last two years, the shares are not as cheap as they once were.
    • A lot of the good news seems priced into the stock at these levels. Why I am taking profits on this old friend is profiled below.
  • EOG Resources: Time To Start Accumulating
    Aug. 20, 2014 EOG 20 Comments

    Summary

    • EOG Resources, the biggest leaseholder in the Eagle Ford shale formation, has sold off ~$10 a share or 10% on the recent decline in energy prices.
    • This stock is never "cheap" but the pullback is a good entry point to start accumulating some shares of this premier E&P concern.
    • The company has had an impressive history of production growth, possesses a deep drilling inventory and a growing percentage of production coming from oil & liquids.
  • Gilead Beats Apple To $100. Who Will Win Race To $120?
    Aug. 19, 2014 AAPL, GILD 52 Comments

    Summary

    • Biotech juggernaut Gilead Sciences closed above the $100 a share milestone for the first time on Monday.
    • Another large cap growth stock in my portfolio, Apple, looks like it is on track to accomplish the same feat by the end of the weak.
    • Both companies are cheap based on growth prospects and have outstanding positive catalysts in the near future. Which stock will be the first to cross over the $120 level?
  • An Update On A Couple Of Small Biotech Plays
    Aug. 19, 2014 AVNR, DVAX 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The small biotech sector is for speculative investors that can handle the inherent volatility in the space.
    • Investors should be well diversified in this area as there will be many failures compensated for by the occasional five or ten bagger.
    • Below are updates on a couple of promising speculative plays I hold within my own portfolio.
  • Insiders Still Buying These Attractive High-Yield Plays
    Aug. 18, 2014 RSO, CLDT 25 Comments

    Summary

    • I have started to reduce the amount of allocation going into my income portfolio as interest rates should rise from current levels.
    • However, I'm still adding some funds on market dips to yield plays with attractive attributes.
    • Here are two income plays that possess desirable valuations, high yield and have seen recent insider buying recently as well. I have added to both recently.
  • Las Vegas Sands: Recent Dip Is Good Entry Point
    Aug. 18, 2014 LVS 88 Comments

    Summary

    • I have found one of the best things for long term investment performance is having a stable of good growth plays that occasionally suffer pull backs.
    • This gives an intrepid investor opportunities to add to their stakes when the market puts them into oversold territory.
    • Las Vegas Sands is one of those core growth plays that is down 20% over the last six months. Why the stock should go higher from here profiled below.
  • Watching The Market's Price To Sales Ratio
    Aug. 18, 2014 BGFV, AVT 15 Comments

    Summary

    • One of the concerning stats of the current market is the extreme price to sales ratios that exist in the S&P 500 compared to historical norms.
    • A contrarian way to counteract this sign of overvaluation is to find stocks with low price to sales ratios that seem undervalued in the market.
    • Here are two relatively underfollowed equities that have very low price to sales ratios and should reward long term investors.
  • Barron's Highlights Some Attractive Tech Stocks
    Aug. 17, 2014 OVTI, JNPR, AAPL 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Barron's, the widely followed industry magazine, had several positive pieces on technology stocks this weekend and they could receive a "Barron's Bounce" on Monday.
    • Although I am not sanguine on the overall market at current levels, I am overweight the technology sector in my own portfolio.
    • Profiled below are three cash rich, attractive tech stocks Barron's is positive on. They represent good value in an overvalued market.
  • Berkshire Ups Their Bet On Chicago Bridge & Iron
    Aug. 17, 2014 CBI 97 Comments

    Summary

    • Chicago Bridge & Iron has declined more than 30% since recent allegations of "creative accounting" by an obscure source.
    • Bigger analyst firms like UBS and Barclays have a different take and have reiterated their "Buy" ratings and have price targets more than 40% above the current stock price.
    • Why I am betting with Berkshire Hathaway which recently upped its stake in Chicago Bridge & Iron by 12% and now have 10% of the outstanding float.
  • Gilead: More Good News For This Biotech Juggernaut
    Aug. 15, 2014 GILD 103 Comments

    Summary

    • The good news just keeps rolling in for biotech juggernaut Gilead Sciences.
    • Despite massive increases in earnings and revenues this year, the stock still attracts its share of skeptics.
    • Highlighted below is my rebuttal to a recent short thesis on Gilead and why is stock is still cheap and going much higher.
  • Yes, Me Worry
    Aug. 14, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 80 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has held up very well despite numerous geopolitical flare ups over the past few months.
    • However, despite a better than expected earnings seasons, investors are too sanguine about various negatives in the equity markets right now.
    • Why discretion is the better part of valor with the market at these levels.
  • Ford: Geared Up For Strong Second Half Of 2014
    Aug. 13, 2014 F 94 Comments

    Summary

    • Ford was upgraded today at Stern Agee which went from "Hold" to "Buy" on the American manufacturing icon and has a price target 25% above the current stock price.
    • Thanks to a slew of new model roll launches and other factors; Ford stock is set up to be strong performer in the back half of 2014 and into 2015.
    • The stock is the perfect blend of yield, value and growth. Highlighted below is why it is one of the larger positions in my own portfolio.
  • 2 High Yield Plays In Energy Moving On News
    Aug. 13, 2014 BPL, BWP 11 Comments

    Summary

    • I have lightened up on most of the REIT sector recently as interest rates appear more likely to rise by end of year instead of continuing to fall.
    • Most of my income portfolio is situated in energy partnerships as the country is in the middle of a huge energy boom boosting growth prospects.
    • Profiled below are two interesting plays in the space that have also been in the news recently.
  • Oppenheimer: Gold Miners Have 40% Upside
    Aug. 13, 2014 ABX, GDX, GDXJ 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Oppenheimer came out today with a call that gold mining stocks could see a breakout of up to 40% to the upside.
    • After underperforming for years, gold miners are starting to outperform the underlying price of gold.
    • There are a variety of ways to play this call including my favorite possible acquisition in the space.