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Bret Jensen  

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  • Devon Energy: Seasonal Trends Indicate Significant Upside From Here
    Sep. 13, 2014 DVN 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Exploration & Production companies are down sharply this summer on back of a $10 a barrel decline in oil prices.
    • I have been allocating more funds to these beaten down E&P plays as it appears another harsh winter is on the way which will bolster the sector.
    • One of these energy concerns is Devon Energy. The stock is well-positioned to deliver 15% to 25% upside by year end given historical trends and production growth.
  • American Eagle Energy: Shares Could Be Buoyed By Another Brutal Winter
    Sep. 12, 2014 AMZG 92 Comments

    Summary

    • After a mild summer, it is looking more and more like the nation could be in for a repeat of last year's brutal winter.
    • This could bolster the fortunes of E&P plays whose stocks have been hit by the recent decline in oil and natural gas prices.
    • I like American Eagle Energy at current levels. The stock is selling way below analysts' price targets and its net asset value.
  • Callon Petroleum: Fast Growing Permian Play Selling At A Big Discount
    Sep. 12, 2014 CPE 24 Comments

    Summary

    • I recently added shares in my stake in fast growing Permian play Callon Petroleum after the stock had a big pullback earlier this week due to a secondary offering.
    • The proceeds from the offering will be used to pay for a recent purchase that will substantially boost Callon's production and reserves.
    • This small producer is selling at a considerable discount to the overall market as well as analysts' price target. The recent decline is a great entry point to purchase stock.
  • Transocean: Barron's Believes Beaten Down Shares Have 33% Upside
    Sep. 10, 2014 RIG 100 Comments

    Summary

    • Barron's did a follow up on beaten down driller Transocean this weekend stating some recent positive events are being ignored by investors.
    • The piece predicts 33% upside for patient investors willing to wait for sentiment and fundamentals to improve in the offshore space.
    • I have continued to add to my position in this beaten down driller. The shares are cheap, yield nearly 8% and have solid technical support at these levels.
  • Armada Hoffler Properties: High-Yield Buy On Secondary Weakness
    Sep. 10, 2014 AHH 14 Comments

    Summary

    • I have found that initiating positions in high-yield real estate investment trusts (REITs) when they sell off on new secondary offerings is a sound investment strategy.
    • Multi-use REIT Armada Hoffler Properties is down some 5% in early trading Wednesday on a new secondary offering, and is offering a solid entry point.
    • This REIT provides a 7% yield, is seeing strong business metrics and is already priced at a significant discount to competitors.
  • KKR: Solid Value, Great Yield
    Sep. 9, 2014 KKR 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Continuing on with our increasing allocation to the financial sector theme of the day, the value case for buying Kohlberg Kravis Roberts is presented below.
    • This high-yielding alternative investment play is offering income investors a solid entry point, after declining some 15% from highs earlier in the year.
    • The shares provide a solid combination of attractive valuations and an over 8% annual payout that look good in a fully valued market.
  • JPMorgan: A Solid Value In This Fully Valued Market
    Sep. 9, 2014 JPM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • It is getting harder to find bargains in the market with the S&P 500 hovering at the 2,000 level and with stocks going for 16-17 this year's earnings.
    • I am lightening my exposure to REITs and increasing my allocation to major banks as net interest margins should benefit as interest rates look to rise from here.
    • One major bank that is offering solid value in a fully valued market is JPMorgan. Why I expect the shares to rise 12% to 15% is highlighted below.
  • Don't Be Foolish On Ford
    Sep. 8, 2014 F 57 Comments

    Summary

    • Ford stock is down more than 2% to start the trading week on an analyst downgrade from Morgan Stanley.
    • This cheap automaker has become a battleground stock among analysts recently but I think the bullish camp will ultimately be proven right on their view on Ford.
    • The company is setting up for a much stronger year in 2015 and why today's sell-off is a good opportunity to pick up a few more shares is highlighted below.
  • Barron's Could Boost Boeing
    Sep. 8, 2014 BA 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Barron's, the widely followed magazine on the markets, had a very positive piece on aerospace giant Boeing this weekend which could boost the stock this week.
    • The piece accurately highlights the American icon's long term earnings visibility, huge order backlog and its ideal position to continue to benefit from faster growth coming from emerging markets.
    • Their view on Boeing echoes my own. The shares represent a solid value in what I consider to be a slightly overvalued market. Why I own the stock highlighted below.
  • Are Investors Positioned For A Brutal Winter?
    Sep. 5, 2014 GNRC, UPL 267 Comments

    Summary

    • With the opening of the NFL season just after the long Labor Day weekend, winter is hardly on most investors' minds right now.
    • However, after a mild summer across most of the country and a recently issued forecast from the Farmer's Almanac; another brutal winter might be on the way.
    • Another harsh winter would have numerous impacts, and is an actionable investment theme. Here is how I would play this possibility.
  • Using Secondaries For Profit And Yield
    Sep. 4, 2014 MEMP, CPLP 30 Comments

    Summary

    • I want to revisit an investment strategy involving secondary offerings as I believe there are some significant inefficiencies in this market.
    • These inefficiencies can lead to some easy and profitable trading opportunities.
    • Whether looking to turn a quick profit or gain a lower entry point to purchase an attractive high yield equity; I have found the strategy has been a consistent winner.
  • Apple: Finally A Buyable Dip
    Sep. 4, 2014 AAPL 120 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Apple had its worst one day decline in seven months on a combination of negative factors.
    • Wednesday's sell-off finally offers a buyable dip as none of the reasons the stock dropped today are likely to have long term impacts.
    • Why Apple still represents solid value in this market and should rebound in short order is outlined below.
  • Positioning For A Stronger Dollar
    Sep. 3, 2014 AEG, MCD, FXY 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Interest rates have started to tick up recently and the dollar has strengthened noticeably against both the euro and the yen as well.
    • These trends could remain in place or accelerate for myriad reasons in coming months and will have several impacts to the markets.
    • A few actions investors should take with their portfolios to counteract these movements are outlined below.
  • Gilead: No Stopping This Juggernaut
    Sep. 3, 2014 GILD 62 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Gilead Sciences has risen some 60% over the past five months and almost 80% during the previous 12 months.
    • So given this huge rise in the shares; is the stock still undervalued and are further gains still ahead?
    • We will take a look at the company and its stock from a couple of different angles to come up with a solid price range and recommendation for shareholders.
  • American Realty Capital Properties: High-Yield Play Ready To Narrow Valuation Discount To Peers
    Sep. 2, 2014 ARCP 56 Comments

    Summary

    • I have lightened my exposure to real estate investment trusts (REITs) over the past few months due to their large gains in the first half of 2014.
    • Interest rates are more likely to rise than decline further from current levels which will provide a headwind to high-yield sectors such as REITS.
    • I have made some exceptions such as maintaining my position in the largest single tenant REIT in the market, American Realty Capital Partners.
    • This REIT is selling at a significant valuation discount to its two biggest peers, pays a higher dividend yield and should spend the next 12 months narrowing this discount.
  • Bank Of America: Stage Set For Substantial Upside
    Sep. 2, 2014 BAC 85 Comments

    Summary

    • Richard Pzena of Pzena Investment Management was interviewed in Barron's this weekend. Mr. Pzena manages billions of dollars and see major positive catalysts for major banks in the years ahead.
    • One of these is Bank of America which is a substantial position within my own portfolio and recently announced a huge settlement with the federal government.
    • After a pretty dismal 2014, the shares are undervalued and should bounce bank in 2015 and in the years ahead for a variety of reasons.
  • Transocean: High-Yield Contrarian Play Continues To Bottom
    Aug. 30, 2014 RIG 80 Comments

    Summary

    • Large offshore driller Transocean seems to be slowly building a bottom after a recent decline.
    • Sentiment on it and most offshore plays right now is extremely negative given concerns around overcapacity and the prospects for day rates.
    • However, Transocean pays almost an 8% dividend and has some other longer term catalysts that make it worth accumulating for patient contrarian investors.
  • Tutor Perini: Construction Giant Still Offers Value And Growth
    Aug. 29, 2014 TPC 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of construction firm Tutor Perini has advanced some 60% over the last year as the company has continued to deliver earnings and revenue gains.
    • Tutor Perini continues to benefit from a diversification of income streams and is seeing the highest order backlog since before the financial crisis.
    • Despite the stock's recent rise, the shares are still cheap compared to the overall market and the company's accelerating growth prospects.
  • Market Posts Best August In 14 Years. Why Don't Investors Feel Better?
    Aug. 29, 2014 AAPL, ACHN, GILD 111 Comments

    Summary

    • The market is about to post its best August performance in 14 years and the S&P 500 stands near an all-time high of 2,000.
    • 2014 continues to add to gains in shareholders' portfolios after 2013 produced over 30% returns in the market.
    • So given the recent performance of the market, why don't investors feel better? Three core reasons and my market game plan for the months ahead are highlighted below.
  • LinnCo: 10% Yield And Solid Growth Rate Hard To Resist
    Aug. 29, 2014 LNCO 48 Comments

    Summary

    • After holding Linn Energy off and on over the past year and a half, I bought my first shares in LinnCo recently.
    • This entity has a nice earnings trajectory and also pays an almost 10% distribution yield paid monthly.
    • Why I think these shares provide a solid income opportunity with attractive valuations in what I consider a slightly overvalued market.
  • When Will M&A Come To The Hepatitis C Space?
    Aug. 28, 2014 CNAT, GILD, ACHN 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Biotech InterMune was taken out by Roche for over $8 billion yesterday in a deal that had an almost 40% buyout premium.
    • Given the strength of M&A this year and the huge interest in Hepatitis C space thanks to Gilead's Sovaldi, it is logical to assume this space could see M&A activity.
    • Two possible takeout in the Hepatitis C space are profiled below.
  • How Chesapeake Energy Plans To Unlock Substantial Shareholder Value
    Aug. 27, 2014 CHK 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Over the last year or two, I have made some huge gains by buying mid-cap energy concerns that were starting to transform their business models.
    • These big winners included Devon Energy and Hess Corporation, which created substantial shareholder value by simplifying their portfolios and becoming more "oily" in their production.
    • Chesapeake Energy is in the early innings of executing the same basic game plan. Why I think the shares have significant upside in the years ahead is profiled below.
  • S&P 2,000: Speed Bump Or Top?
    Aug. 27, 2014 SPY, LOCO, GILD 58 Comments

    Summary

    • The S&P 500 closed at over 2,000 for the first time in its history Tuesday as the market is tracking to its best August performance in 14 years.
    • The market could be at an inflection point as cases can easily be made for Bull and Bear scenarios for equities in the months ahead.
    • So where does the market go after achieving this milestone? My outlook and strategy for dealing for the market for the rest of 2014 is outlined below.
  • Time To Buy More Pacific Drilling
    Aug. 27, 2014 PACD 45 Comments

    Summary

    • One of worst performing sectors of the market in 2014 has been offshore drillers due to worries about overcapacity and possible impacts to day rates.
    • Being a contrarian investor, I have continued to build positions in the sector including recently adding to my stake in Pacific Drilling.
    • This Luxembourg based offshore drilling play has a new fleet, cheap valuations, great growth prospects and some possible significant payouts in 2015.
  • Ultra Petroleum: Buying This Cheap Natural Gas Play
    Aug. 26, 2014 UPL 58 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock of Ultra Petroleum has been rallying since a recent major and accretive purchase.
    • There are many reasons to be increasingly positive on Ultra's longer-term prospects.
    • Based on its earnings trajectory, the shares are very cheap and should have significant upside from current levels.
  • Summit Hotel Properties: Still An Attractive Yield Play
    Aug. 24, 2014 INN 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Real estate investment trust Summit Hotel Properties is up some 20%, including dividends, since I provided a "deep dive" on it 14 months.
    • The company continues to relentlessly execute against its strategy of expanding into top lodging markets.
    • The shares are undervalued to peers, provide an over 4% yield and still are attractive on a valuation perspective.
  • Abraxas Petroleum: My First Trade For Monday
    Aug. 24, 2014 AXAS 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Recently a small cap E&P concern I took huge profits in earlier in the year has popped back onto my radar screen again after a recent 15% decline.
    • This company, Abraxas Petroleum, is executing well and seeing huge production growth which is translating into major earnings increases.
    • Abraxas is profiled below along with several factors that should boost the stock significantly over the coming 6-12 months.
  • Halliburton: 10% Decline Is A Solid Entry Point
    Aug. 22, 2014 HAL 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent pullback in oil and natural gas prices has negatively impacted the energy sector over the last month, causing it to underperform the overall market.
    • Halliburton has been caught up in this decline by the energy sector, despite strong quarterly results and several analyst upgrades.
    • The recent 10% sell-off in this pre-eminent energy services concern looks like an actionable time to accumulate shares in this cheap stock with good growth prospects.
  • 3 Attractive Energy Names For Under $10 A Share
    Aug. 22, 2014 AMZG, CPE, EOX 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Exploration and Production companies have sold off over the past month as prices for oil and natural gas have come down recently.
    • These declines are providing long term growth investors some solid entry points to buy into the continuing boom in domestic energy production.
    • Profiled below are three attractive, fast growing small cap E&P plays which are all now priced at under $10 a share.
  • Ashford Hospitality Trust: A Strong Yield Play In Lodging
    Aug. 21, 2014 AHT 13 Comments

    Summary

    • I have been lightening up on some of the real estate investment trusts within my income portfolio as they have had large gains and interest rates should rise from here.
    • One exception to this is real estate investment trusts in the lodging space as the business fundamentals in this area are very strong right now.
    • Ashford Hospitality Trust is a strong play within this lodging area with cheap valuations, solid management and a nice and soon to be increasing yield.
  • Microsoft: Time To Take Profits
    Aug. 21, 2014 MSFT 52 Comments

    Summary

    • Microsoft has had a huge run in the market over the past two years and has served my portfolio well over that time frame.
    • However, after the stock's over 80% returns of the last two years, the shares are not as cheap as they once were.
    • A lot of the good news seems priced into the stock at these levels. Why I am taking profits on this old friend is profiled below.
  • EOG Resources: Time To Start Accumulating
    Aug. 20, 2014 EOG 20 Comments

    Summary

    • EOG Resources, the biggest leaseholder in the Eagle Ford shale formation, has sold off ~$10 a share or 10% on the recent decline in energy prices.
    • This stock is never "cheap" but the pullback is a good entry point to start accumulating some shares of this premier E&P concern.
    • The company has had an impressive history of production growth, possesses a deep drilling inventory and a growing percentage of production coming from oil & liquids.