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Bret Kenwell  

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  • Home Depot and Ford recover from early plunges [View news story]
    wasn't just F and HD. CELG down over 20%, SBUX traded down to $42. This morning's trading was breathtaking.
    Aug 24, 2015. 10:54 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    At this rate, it would be surprising if it DIDN'T go lower. Thanks for adding to the conversation!

    -Bret
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hey Charvo -

    I definitely agree. My point about high quality companies is that over the long haul, they tend to outperform equities -- which in general do pretty well themselves.

    For me, I don't know that I'm good enough to sell at one price, only to buy back at another. So it's easy for me to hold through times of slight overvaluation and add on dips when I see fit. I know this strategy doesn't work for everyone though, because you do take your lumps on the pullbacks.

    I personally don't see this as the next bear market, otherwise I would have no problem selling my stocks and getting out. Then again, rarely do you see the bear markets ahead of time. We'll see, but hopefully this is just a routine correction.

    Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    1GreatCFA - I don't think it's 2001 because valuations are not insanely through the roof and it's not 2008 because the financial sector isn't collapsing all around us. I assumed that didn't need to be stated.

    As for stating generalities with no explanations, why do you feel the market is poised to fall 30%? Thanks for your comments.

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Also, good assessment to the question, "Why is it that investors seem to beg for corrections, yet when they come, can't seem to pull the trigger on their favorite stocks?"

    I also agree that the dips are healthy. We've had a very extended period of time where pullbacks have been far and few between, met with plenty of buyers, and have been relatively short-lived. The volatility has sagged below its historical norms as a result.

    With all that being said, This could just be a return to a more 'normal' investing environment. That doesn't mean the S&P 500 needs to fall to 1,200, or rally to 3,000.


    Again, thanks for commenting. Great points.

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Great comments, both Minnie and Marshall.

    I agree we haven't seen much euphoria. Whether we go higher or not, I'm not sure. Good points about the stock allocation. If only I could remember where I put that crystal ball of mine.... :-)


    Thanks for your 2c.

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    I agree, really good discussion here. Thanks for the kind words and good luck.


    -bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Archman - I hear what you're saying. My point with Disney -- which I do own, FWIW -- is that if you were buying it at $120, assuming you did your homework and liked the business, why wouldn't you like it 20% cheaper?

    If you didn't do your homework and chased the stock, then not liking it down 20% makes sense. I don't think Disney will fall to $60, but that is only my opinion.

    And yes, the S&P 500, internally, has been a mess. ~30% of it is in a bear market already, but the index is holding up despite the underlying selling. I don't know if that bodes well for stocks in that many may be close to bottoming, or if it bodes poorly for it. Time will tell, I guess.

    I just stick to what I know, which is avoiding margin, keeping some dry powder and owning quality companies.


    Thanks for your comments,

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hey Franklin -

    Allow me to clarify. Most investors aren't good enough to buy stocks at the lows, sell at the highs and enjoy a rich and bountiful life thanks to their swift and accurate investment skills.

    They kick themselves on the way up, grow anxious on the way down, and tend to panic near the lows and cash out. It's the psychology of the game. The market takes its toll on you mentally, unless you are focused on the long-term and properly diversified.

    And yes, high quality companies get dragged down in the carnage, like you say. But when looking at the very long-term, stocks go higher. Owning the best of the best companies will likely enhance those gains, even if they take an unnecessary beating in the short-term.


    Thanks for commenting, I hope my response helped clarify things a bit more.

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Fritz, I would agree. The size of the pullback would probably still bother a lot of investors. But with the speed over the past two days that it happened is what is rattling many.

    That's my opinion anyway. Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hey Adam --

    There's a lot in your comment to digest. Very good points though.

    I felt like October's decline was too tied to the Ebola scare, which was on every headline on every media outlet. It never should have took that kind of toll on stocks, and the Fed or any other CB shouldn't have had to talk markets out of its pouting.

    People can twist valuations to fit into whatever argument they are trying to make -- not saying you're doing this, but just in general, it happens constantly.

    And while the specific data above could be considered 'cherry picking,' I will make the case that I'd rather compared today's price to that of the last twenty years, then rely on, say the data between 1890 and 1950. Industries changes, businesses are different. And I think that's why, to me specifically, I'd rather use more recent information.


    But again, you make great points. Thanks for expanding the conversation here, and for doing so respectfully. That's what SA is all about. Take care.

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Kovnat -

    It's why we see stocks overshoot, both up and down, so often. In a very broad sense, the stock market comes down to 50% fundamentals, 50% psychology.

    In good times, investors can shrug off bad news. Conversely, they can also ignore some really great stuff when they're feeling down and out.

    But for the long-term fellas, that's what creates the opportunities.


    Thanks for commenting. Appreciate the kind words. - Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    While it seems like we probably sold off too far, too fast, I do think there is more left. The pain level just doesn't seem to be high enough yet.

    Just my 2c.

    Thanks,

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hey Newnnly-

    So glad you brought this up. Hindsight is 20/20. In 2008, it really felt like the financial world was ending. Even though folks knew that stocks go up over the long-term, when you're out there, watching your life savings drop 50% or more, it's really tough to hang tight and hold on.

    I don't expect that to happen again, because it's far from the same circumstances. But I do understand why others couldn't hold on. Consider that many lost more than the S&P 500, which was down about 40%.

    For example, look at Apple and Disney and many others right now, down more than 20% while the S&P 500 is down just 7.5%.

    It's tough, but like you said, staying true to your strategy is how one perseveres through such noise. Sticking to quality companies is certainly a good method, and the one that I choose.

    I can't predict market swings, when they will happen or how much they will move. But I can sleep soundly knowing my money is in good companies at decent prices with excellent management teams.


    Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hannan-

    Let's hope our 80 year old investor has most of their money in safe, less volatile assets. Or at least has a plan for when stocks pullback, for which they always will! :-)

    I get your point though.

    Thanks for commenting,

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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