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Bret Kenwell  

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  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Elkarlo-

    good question. I started with a half position in Starbucks a few years ago, hoping to buy more on a pullback. Didn't get one and finally last Feb. I increased to a full position near $70.

    Disney is a similar situation for me, only I still don't have the ideal position size yet. Still smaller than I'd prefer. Bought early and added consistently, just never got the big pullback that I thought would come.

    Can't nail 'em all! Thanks for commenting!
    Feb 4, 2015. 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    Hi everyone --

    I just want to provide a small update here, since shares have been hit hard following Alibaba's weaker-than-expected earnings results. Opinions will vary, and that's fine, but I just want to reconfigure some of the numbers in Yahoo!'s sum-of-the-parts valuation.

    It now goes:

    Alibaba stake: ~$33.75 billion
    Yahoo! Japan stake: ~$7 billion
    Net cash position: $5.2 billion
    Est. core business value: $5.2 billion

    As a total market cap, we come to roughly $51.20 billion, or about $54 per share. This is assuming YJ stake is spun off tax-free as well. If not, it will negatively impact the market cap by roughly $2.6 billion, or a few dollars per share.

    Again, I figured I would just provide a short update to match current market conditions.

    Thanks,

    -Bret
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Hey Phil -

    I'm glad to see you found this piece! The call was really magnificent and Schultz was really encouraging. Management did say H1 could be a little a weaker, while H2 would likely be stronger.

    If this is the case, q2 results could disappoint, and that may give investors who missed the boat a chance to get in, or add to smaller positions. Of course, who knows what happens, but just a theory.

    I won't sell in anticipation of that potential drop. If it falls, I'll buy more. But I see the longer term vision, which equals higher in my mind, with or without a pullback.

    Thanks for reading. Any chance you'll break your silence and give us a CMG piece to read? :) I for one would love some insight on that beast.
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Civ-e --

    While I see your point, it's one that could have been made last year. Or probably even the year before. SBUX could have a rocky quarter here or there and even said next quarter could be a little on the lower end, with strength coming in the back half of the year.

    If you're a longer term investor, I wouldn't let the quarter to quarter nonsense shake you too much. SBUX has a solid pipeline of growth and several levers to pull.


    Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    hindsight is always 20/20.

    Some will says growth has to come down at some point, and with it, the valuation. But i think these new initiatives and growth in China will give the SBUX growth story some legs for years to come.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    To be fair, while it's not the most encouraging thing in the world to see insider selling, there are indeed many reasons to sell a stock. Executives at almost every company does it and many are setup on plans to sell a set amount of stock at pre-selected date.

    While there are many reasons to sell, there's only one reason to buy: Because execs think the stock is going higher. That's why I consider buying to be more important than selling.

    Thanks for commenting!
    Feb 3, 2015. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    Great thought. Entirely possible and makes sense too.

    -Bk
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    FCARONE --

    Your opinion isn't alone; many shareholders have a similar view toward management. I can understand that type of frustration, especially over the long-term.

    Since I am not long time shareholders, I do not share those same feels though. The core business is not seeing reaccelerated growth and the YJ stake is still a question mark.

    The company performed accelerated buybacks throughout the quarter, which was their form of some capital return for shareholders.

    However, the BABA spinoff being completed in a tax-free manner is THE most important thing right now for this company, IMHO. The difference between paying full taxes versus no taxes is enormous, something like $15 billion off the top of my head. That's roughly equivalent to $15 per share!

    My views don't necessarily align with what management is doing. it has more to do with how its assets are being valued. In a perfect world, the stock would trade based on what its assets are being valued at at any given time. They do not, hence what I consider a buying opportunity.

    But I do hear you on some of those disappointments. I look forward to your other comments explaining them in more detail!

    -Bret
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    Pete, Stephen --

    I'm in the same boat, opinion-wise. Given the current market values of all of its assets, shares should be trading in the mid-$50s, even if YJ is spun off in a fully taxed manner.

    That fact the stock it is not higher provides opportunity, IMO. There will be doubt around some events (like the spinoff, YJ or the core business) but it's the same type of situation that we saw in the summer, just with different numbers.

    Yahoo and its assets were undervalued then and to a lesser extent, they still are today.


    Thanks for commenting.

    -Bret
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Reports On Friday: Let's Analyze It [View article]
    Great cash flow analysis right here and nice article on GE. Spelled out very nicely.

    Others should consider saving this piece as a nice CF and FCF template to analyze other stocks with.

    Thanks for the work!

    -Bret
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Five Greatest Stocks Update-Year End 2014 [View instapost]
    Ah shucks! If I had only bought, closed my eyes, and opened them today. Nice work Joe.
    Jan 2, 2015. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does It Cost To Produce One Barrel Of Oil? (Tight Oil, Part III) [View article]
    Like Total Return Investor said, he's a college student and unlikely to have the financial firepower to step in and buy much more than gas, books and tuition.

    I for one appreciate his insight and research, especially since I'm no energy expert. Thanks for the article, Christoph.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:05 AM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Yahoo's New Activist Investor Means, And Why The Stock Is Headed Higher [View article]
    Thanks Guy In Ithaca, your comments are appreciated as well!
    Sep 27, 2014. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Yahoo's New Activist Investor Means, And Why The Stock Is Headed Higher [View article]
    Hey Steve --

    I agree, pretty much, with your point that AOL isn't the best matchup. I for one could care less about AOL (or any other merger/acquisition for the matter).

    My main focus (and I'm assuming Starboard's too) is the tax efficiencies that can be realized by Yahoo! in regards to its stakes in Alibaba and Yahoo! Japan.

    How this is handled will result in $10+ billion, and thus, $10+ per share share. They need to get this right.
    Sep 27, 2014. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba prices IPO at $68 [View news story]
    Impressive open. Definitely higher than I thought.
    Sep 19, 2014. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
512 Comments
314 Likes