Seeking Alpha

Bret Kenwell

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Bret Kenwell's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part I: A Look At Alibaba [View article]
    Comparing to BIDU, I think, would be a good idea.

    BIDU has a PE ratio of about 38, based on a quick glance at Google finance.

    That's almost smack dab in the middle of Google's PE ratio of 31 and analysts' estimates for Alibaba using a PE ratio of 45.

    More or less, it would give Alibaba a valuation of ~$143 billion. To Yahoo, that's a pre-tax stake worth $32.2 billion.

    Most of the Chinese Internet stocks trade with a high valuation, and what I wanted to do was use conservative valuation. Not to be pessimistic, but seeing as though I have skin in the game, I want to 'hope for the best, plan for the worst,' if you will.

    Planning for the worst would be assigning to lowest (reasonable) valuation possible, therefore looking at Yahoo!'s downside, rather than its upside.

    Thanks!
    Aug 25, 2014. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part I: A Look At Alibaba [View article]
    Hey Vogul --

    Part II is precisely that -- a look at the other assets Yahoo! has. I submitted it over the weekend, so it should be out within a day, two days tops.


    Thanks!

    -Bret
    Aug 25, 2014. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: $24 Is Within Reach [View article]
    I like Ford and am long, but this is spot on:

    You forget that Ford is currently trading at a fair price that is proportional to earnings for 2014, if not on the high side.
    Jul 31, 2014. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Errs In Valuing Ford Motor At 9 Times Earnings [View article]
    It's also worth mentioning that Ford and other autos generally trade with a low earnings and sales multiple. It does not trade with the same value as say, the S&P 500.

    And even though its sales momentum maybe outside of the U.S., the vast majority of total sales do come within the U.S. Now it is up to the reader to decide if this fits in their bull case (economy improving) or bear case (economy faltering).

    In December, management warned that profits would fall, amid lower margins and product launches. With the company earning less this year than it did last year and with concerns over the transition to the 2015 F-150, I don't necessarily think its valuation is all that bad.

    The stock is up 10.5% YTD, and that to me, isn't too bad given the circumstances.
    Jul 31, 2014. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Errs In Valuing Ford Motor At 9 Times Earnings [View article]
    This is a flawed argument, in my opinion:

    "Ford Motor should be at the top of investors' shopping lists because the company could become a major beneficiary of General Motors' (NYSE:GM) recall disaster as customers lose confidence in the once-mighty brand and migrate over to competitors."

    If it has yet to become a major beneficiary, which Ford has not, why on earth has it not happened yet? GM continues to post monthly sales gain after monthly sales gain, while Ford fails to reap any benefits from the GM recall disaster.


    Granted, I am long Ford, no position on GM, but this argument was valid in March..not headed into August.
    Jul 31, 2014. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    It's not a difficult concept. But the company is making its move into organic, where it never was before.

    I don't know why it's so difficult to have a polite and constructive discussion, so I guess I am done here.
    Jul 30, 2014. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    Gary

    I don't really get your point. Your making it sound as though I'm a full-blown bull on WMT.

    I am not, for the record.

    But to shrug off the largest retailer on earth and say, 'Oh, it will have not effect on WFM' is purely irresponsible and ignorant.

    WFM has already said it is focused on lower pricing. Seriously, what's your beef?
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    My assumption isn't that WMT shoppers buy a lot of organic. But what I'm saying is that WMT has an incredible amount of pricing power.

    If its lower prices pressure WFM's competitors, it can ultimately put pressure on WFM to lower its prices.

    So WMT won't steal WFM customers away, but it can certainly put pressure on pricing. The question is whether volume will offset that disadvantage.
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    Here's I see Wal-Mart.

    It's rather obvious that most WFM fans aren't going to flip-flop stores. However, Wal-Mart's pricing power may put pressure on WFM's more direct competition, (SFM, TFM, Trader Joe's, etc.).

    If those companies feel like they have to lower price to stay competitive, WFM may have to too. After all, while many WFM shoppers won't switch to WMT, they might to one of its other competitors.

    This is how WMT could negatively effect WFM moving forward.
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    Hey everyone --

    Thanks for the comments. My real hope here is that Whole Foods does indeed disappoints on Wednesday. Perhaps in-line results would send the stock lower, and I can only hope that that's the case.

    I say that because it would hopefully mean a bottoming in the stock price, and would represent a great buying opportunity. I want to buy more shares, but am also patient enough to realize that I can wait for WFM to prove the decline is over.

    Plenty of upside, just a question of when it's time to make the real push!

    Thanks for the comments!

    -Bret
    Jul 30, 2014. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Wait For Lower Entry Price After Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Gotcha. I would say near current levels, the stock is fairly to fully valued, depending which metrics you use.

    I would consider a pullback to the low-$70s a gift and where I would be buying my position. But that's just me, because I think it's plausible shares will be undervalued, but not deeply undervalued any time soon. (FD: Long SBUX)
    Jul 29, 2014. 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Wait For Lower Entry Price After Earnings Announcement [View article]
    A pullback would be nice, yes. But the third quarter was gangbusters and the fourth quarter will do well too. Fiscal 2015 guidance was still in the previous range of 15% to 20%, albeit, on the lower end.

    Still, if earnings were to grow at the very low end of that range, 15%, it would not be reason enough for 15% to 20% pullback in these stock.

    I am all for patience and buying on dips. But something of that magnitude would need to coincide with an overall market correction. SBUX is flat on the year, and has already gone through its pullback in the first six months of 2014.

    A few percent maybe, but sub-$70 levels, barring a large market correction, I just don't see it. We didn't even get to $66 in the latest pullback, and sentiment was MUCH worse then, than it likely will be for SBUX anytime in the near future.

    Just my 2c.
    Jul 29, 2014. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks testing mobile ordering system [View news story]
    I may be wrong about what SBUX is doing, but PNRA has a similar online ordering app. I believe NDLS does too. I think, unless SBUX has something extremely proprietary about its own, will have trouble licensing the platform. Just my thoughts
    Jul 18, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Bears Can't Walk And Chew Gum, Stock Heading To $700 [View article]
    I'm not sure what the P/E would have been, nor do I care enough to find out. All I know is that this guy put his price target over $400, or ~55%, above Apple's all-time high of 703-ish.

    Not only that -- and I may be completely wrong here -- but I believe his cutesy $777 price target has been around for ages.

    For me, that's all I need to see for him to lose all credibility.
    May 28, 2014. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Bears Can't Walk And Chew Gum, Stock Heading To $700 [View article]
    Richard,

    In Blair's defense, Brian White has never been, shall we say, a pro at calling Apple's future price. Remember $1,111?

    Nice piece though!

    Cheers,

    -Bret
    May 28, 2014. 01:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
486 Comments
276 Likes