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Bret Kenwell  

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  • Alibaba prices IPO at $68 [View news story]
    Rummy, all --

    I'm not saying that BABA "CAN'T" hit $100 on its first day. I'm just saying it's not a small, $1 billion company that can so easily double. We're talking about a $170 billion company, AKA a company bigger than DIS, by like $20 billion.

    That's a big company, and to plan on it adding some $90 billion, is well, a lot of market cap.

    Don't get me wrong, BABA CAN do it if investors push it that high. If it does, then great. Longs in Softbank and Yahoo! stand to greatly benefit, (I'm long the latter).

    I'm only saying that that's not where I plan on seeing it. If so, great.
    Sep 19, 2014. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba prices IPO at $68 [View news story]
    While I'm optimistic on BABA and YHOO, the suggestion that it will go to $100 per share in one trading session will be almost a 50% gain. The sheer size of this company's market cap should make that relatively difficult to do. Talking going from $168b valuation to $250b in ONE DAY.

    I think it goes up, but my estimates are not to these levels. Good luck to you, hope you are right.
    Sep 18, 2014. 06:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part I: A Look At Alibaba [View article]
    Thanks Aksika. Valuation range of $148 to $163, as per:

    http://seekingalpha.co...


    Would give a solid chunk to Apple, not including the potential run in shares of Alibaba after it opens for public trading, and also assuming that the IPO range does not move higher before the IPO date.
    Sep 5, 2014. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot: A Stock With Opportunities [View article]
    Itrader--

    I have been trying to weigh the affects of Dyson entering the market and whether that would be good or bad for iRobot. While higher exposure for the segment is good, a lower pricing point and powerful brand could get iRobot killed, no?
    Sep 2, 2014. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Stocks Set For A Major Decline In The Fall? [View article]
    That's not a bad idea really. I mean, all cash would obviously be extreme, but I have people ask, "where should I put my money now?"

    'Now' is a difficult time time to buy anything. Fixed income yields are ridiculously low, while stocks are at all-time highs.

    I think if it were me who was JUST starting to look for places to put money to work, I would go to equities...AFTER we get that pullback.
    Aug 30, 2014. 09:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part II: Alibaba And The Rest Of Yahoo's Assets [View article]
    Hey Pete --

    I think she's completely overhyped. Those Q2 numbers are dreadful. valuation should be closer in line with $45 billion. ;)
    Aug 27, 2014. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part II: Alibaba And The Rest Of Yahoo's Assets [View article]
    Johnoste-

    This is one of the few reasons I can draw that makes sense, (since the situation actually doesn't make sense!)

    I understand the Mayer discount, but is it really worth THAT much of a discount? Perhaps it is, according to the market. I don't know. All I know is that it's undervalued.
    Aug 27, 2014. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part II: Alibaba And The Rest Of Yahoo's Assets [View article]
    Hey flashback --

    Like Fraser just said, there will be ways to reduce their tax bill. It can be as simple as buying something, selling it for a profit, and paying the tax man in the end.

    But if YHOO is halfway decent about handling its money, it will reduce its bill, or eliminate it, depending on its future course of action.
    Aug 26, 2014. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part II: Alibaba And The Rest Of Yahoo's Assets [View article]
    Hey Fraser --

    I think $120 is too low as well.

    But, as I eluded to in the first article, I would rather estimate a lower valuation into my calculation. YHOO is still attractive with conservative estimates and therefore very attractive if the end result comes in higher than where I've pegged it.

    That's why reason I've used a low valuation for Alibaba. Thanks for commenting.

    -Bret
    Aug 26, 2014. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part II: Alibaba And The Rest Of Yahoo's Assets [View article]
    Hey guys --

    Thanks for all the comments. I largely left the calculations at 'pre-tax' sums, because it's uncertain what Mayer will do with the funds. There will certainly be a hit to the company's windfall due to taxes, but my guess is that the Alibaba will come in far higher than my 'very conservative' estimate of $118 billion.

    In fact, I would be shocked if it came in that low and I only use such a low figure in order to plan for the worst. realistically, this company will come in north of $140b or $150b, and will also likely trade even higher once it is public.

    That will just be icing on the cake for Yahoo!, since the 'low ball' estimate still shows upside promise, even after the latest move higher in the stock.


    Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Aug 26, 2014. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part I: A Look At Alibaba [View article]
    Hey Jax --

    I tend to agree with your thought process on this one. But for me personally -- and maybe this doesn't suit everyone else -- but I like to "plan for the worst, hope for the best."

    I'd rather figure out Ali's valuation on the low end to see if Yahoo is still attractive. Since it was still attractive, I bought it, with the hope that the Alibaba IPO would come in much stronger and my long thesis would be that much more bullish.

    Thanks for the comment!

    -Bret
    Aug 26, 2014. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part I: A Look At Alibaba [View article]
    Comparing to BIDU, I think, would be a good idea.

    BIDU has a PE ratio of about 38, based on a quick glance at Google finance.

    That's almost smack dab in the middle of Google's PE ratio of 31 and analysts' estimates for Alibaba using a PE ratio of 45.

    More or less, it would give Alibaba a valuation of ~$143 billion. To Yahoo, that's a pre-tax stake worth $32.2 billion.

    Most of the Chinese Internet stocks trade with a high valuation, and what I wanted to do was use conservative valuation. Not to be pessimistic, but seeing as though I have skin in the game, I want to 'hope for the best, plan for the worst,' if you will.

    Planning for the worst would be assigning to lowest (reasonable) valuation possible, therefore looking at Yahoo!'s downside, rather than its upside.

    Thanks!
    Aug 25, 2014. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Yahoo Worth Part I: A Look At Alibaba [View article]
    Hey Vogul --

    Part II is precisely that -- a look at the other assets Yahoo! has. I submitted it over the weekend, so it should be out within a day, two days tops.


    Thanks!

    -Bret
    Aug 25, 2014. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: $24 Is Within Reach [View article]
    I like Ford and am long, but this is spot on:

    You forget that Ford is currently trading at a fair price that is proportional to earnings for 2014, if not on the high side.
    Jul 31, 2014. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Errs In Valuing Ford Motor At 9 Times Earnings [View article]
    It's also worth mentioning that Ford and other autos generally trade with a low earnings and sales multiple. It does not trade with the same value as say, the S&P 500.

    And even though its sales momentum maybe outside of the U.S., the vast majority of total sales do come within the U.S. Now it is up to the reader to decide if this fits in their bull case (economy improving) or bear case (economy faltering).

    In December, management warned that profits would fall, amid lower margins and product launches. With the company earning less this year than it did last year and with concerns over the transition to the 2015 F-150, I don't necessarily think its valuation is all that bad.

    The stock is up 10.5% YTD, and that to me, isn't too bad given the circumstances.
    Jul 31, 2014. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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