Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Bret Kenwell  

View Bret Kenwell's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Think Wal-Mart's Selloff Is A Buying Opportunity? Think Again [View article]
    Hey Twanzat -

    I'm not disagreeing with you, but I'm not focused on the short-term of a week or a few weeks. When I'm looking to buy a stock it's not for a week or two. It's for longer than that, but not so long that I would overlook the situation at WMT right now.

    I agree with you. In fact, I wrote in the story:

    "While a short-term bounce could ensue - possibly even into the low $60s - I view Wal-Mart as dead money as it lacks major catalysts in the intermediate term."

    Investors are irrational, no doubt. But the CEO came out and told us WMT earnings (and there's more to the story than just earnings, admittedly) won't return to current levels for several years. That's not my cup of tea for an investment, personally.

    But there are many investors out there that i'm sure find this selloff attractive, but for very long-term, and short-term traders. Do you see a tradable bottom in the stock?

    Oct 28, 2015. 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinstraps, Shoulder Pads And Buying Protection [View instapost]
    I know what you're saying. I really like HD and NKE too, but those valuations, again, can be hard to swallow. Like VFC too for its solid brands, but i don't have a position in the name.

    Owning names like this on dips seems like the only way to do it -- sometimes hesitantly, admittedly.
    Oct 28, 2015. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinstraps, Shoulder Pads And Buying Protection [View instapost]
    Hey SD --

    Would you be a buyer at 20x forward or trailing? I wouldn't be a buyer here either. Y'day I took out some protection on SBUX just in case the stock drops later this week.

    I don't think I plan to hedge V, MA or DIS but would probably buy on a pullback.

    I didn't buy any of these stocks on the 'flash crash' day, but did add to them in late Sept. w/ V below $70, MA below $90 and DIS at $100.

    I've owned these stocks for years, and pullbacks are hard to come by. When the 10% drop comes, I'm usually a buyer. I definitely do so on the 20% decline.

    What types of stocks are on your radar, if you don't mind me asking?
    Oct 27, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: Is The Recent Selloff An Opportunity? [View article]
    I don't mean any disrespect to the author's analysis, as everyone has their own way of finding stocks that they like. But it just seems to me that so many investors try to use all sorts DCF and models of this and that, that simply don't work for high quality growth stocks.

    I mean, I've picked my share of duds in the past, don't get me wrong. But I have owned SBUX, V, MA, DIS without flinching. And over and over, I read articles that say 'Disney is worth $68 per share and that's where I'll buy,' or 'V and MA are overvalued by 45% -- I'll buy on that large of a drop.' 'SBUX at $38 is fair value.'

    I get what they're saying -- buying a good company at a 'fair' price. But often is the case, high quality companies with high quality growth and high quality leaders don't trade down to these levels. They just don't!

    And if they do, something is seriously wrong! Even on a 'flash crash' in August, you couldn't get Disney sub-$90. Now, it'll be a perfect buy at $85, like investors and the DIS board are just going to let it drift down some 30 handles?

    Sorry chief, but getting a 20% pullback in names like DIS is hard enough. Should have backed up your truck at $100 if you really truly wanted to own it. -Bret
    Oct 23, 2015. 01:09 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Shouldn't Cooperate With Netflix, It Should Acquire It [View article]
    IF --

    Don't you think DIS could build this platform out -- Hulu + ESPN -- for far cheaper than the $60B or more it would take to buy NFLX?

    Oct 21, 2015. 02:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Shouldn't Cooperate With Netflix, It Should Acquire It [View article]
    You say both companies would benefit from the acquisition. This is true, but at what cost?

    What would you have to pay to acquire NFLX? It would be an enormous sum, probably more than $55B, and that would be a 30% premium to today's prices. I won't even get into the valuation aspect, as there will be plenty of comments on that.

    I just don't think it will ever happen. Just two years ago DIS and its two partners were looking to SELL Hulu -- not buy each other out. I think they made the right decision to hold onto it, but that clearly shows where management's head was/is.

    If they wouldn't buy out Hulu for $2B a few years ago, why would they buy NFLX at $60B now? I don't think they would. Acquiring NFLX basically says, for $60B, they can't build something else on their own.

    And they probably can't build a NFLX-killer, because NFLX has become so dominate. But could they build a solid runner-up/compliment to NFLX for a quarter of that? A tenth? Probably, and they could start with Hulu.

    I get what you're saying, I really do. I appreciate the article and your creativity. I just don't think it's that realistic. There's a lot of Disney shareholders that probably wouldn't be too happy to see some $60B be spent this way. But who knows, that's what makes a market.

    NFLX as a property is highly valuable. There are just a lot of disagreements about what that value should be.
    Oct 21, 2015. 02:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing tops expectations, raises guidance [View news story]
    Have to read more through the release and listen to the call, but this looks like a very good result from BA. Would be surprised if it doesn't climb more than the 2.3% it has in the pre-market.
    Oct 21, 2015. 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now The Time To Buy McDonald's? [View article]
    Good stuff, Edward. Thanks for you input.

    Always love hearing from long, long-term investors.


    Oct 16, 2015. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now The Time To Buy McDonald's? [View article]
    Interesting take, OE. Thanks for the honesty.
    Oct 16, 2015. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Bubble Forming In Jet Plane Orders For Boeing? [View article]
    I agree, ExJD. Thanks for your comments! We'll definitely get some more insight next week on the Boeing report.
    Oct 16, 2015. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now The Time To Buy McDonald's? [View article]
    Hey Jim -

    Not sure if my article was misinterpreted or if you're simply adding to the notion that now is not the time to be adding the stock. If it's the latter, I agree. I would wait before buying McDonald's at current levels.

    "While there are a number of things working at McDonald's, (all-day breakfast, bullish action in the stock price), it's simply not enough to get me on board. I want to make sure these changes are having a bigger impact for more than just a quarter or two before getting long the Golden Arches."

    Thanks for your comments!

    Oct 16, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now The Time To Buy McDonald's? [View article]
    Hey Myliu --

    Thanks for your comments. I don't question the power of consistent, long-term investing. I also don't question the power of consistent dividend payouts, as I have highlighted on McDonald's in previous articles (as well as this one).

    You may have been smart enough to buy MCD 20 years ago and never sold, but a lot of investors didn't -- or weren't even investing at that point of their life. So when looking to buy a stock today -- and I don't think MCD is 'bad' by any means, it does have some positives -- I just think there are companies with more attractive businesses. That's all.

    Oct 16, 2015. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Bubble Forming In Jet Plane Orders For Boeing? [View article]
    DBG --

    I think because the process is so long and because it takes so long to deliver a completed aircraft, many (but not all) of these orders are placed whether fuel prices are high or low. Just two years ago, oil was $100. Now its sub-$50. These airline companies don't know where oil will be in 12 months, let alone 12 years. There are too many unknown variables.

    But, yes I agree. Airlines continue to replace old jets with new jets, and while this would obviously equate to a larger used-jets market, doesn't mean new jet production will end.

    The increasing number of used jets comes as a result of new jet deliveries. If companies weren't buying new models, they certainly wouldn't be selling their old ones!

    Oct 16, 2015. 08:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now The Time To Buy McDonald's? [View article]
    Hey Pirani -

    So many things at play when it comes to short-term moves in the stock. I honestly don't see a ton of movement for McDonald's in either direction. Investors seem pretty excited about the company's new initiatives, so it seems unlikely they'll let it fall back to $90.

    With that being said, these changes take time and the stock has already rallied on optimism that they will work. So in my opinion, the upside is limited too.

    That may seem vague, I know. But I just don't see it moving a whole lot going forward. I would think it has strong support around $95.

    Hope that helps,

    Oct 16, 2015. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Flipping To Bearish On Alcoa [View article]
    Josh --

    I really like AA's conference call because it gives so much insight into so many different industries around the world. Some of their news about China isn't very surprising. For instance, Heavy Duty Truck & Trailer, this has been incredibly weak this year due to a flood of orders in 2014. Auto sales for the year at 5% to 8% last qtr. was too optimistic -- and I wrote that in a recent article, below -- because of what both Ford and GM said about China. They are looking for low single digit growth, or they were last quarter anyhow.

    Anyhow, I do agree with some of the other commenters about AA. The value-add businesses like auto and aerospace are very attractive, especially compared to the upstream commodity business. Maybe it goes back to $9 first. Who knows. But over the long-term, even just the next few years, this stock should perform very well.

    Thanks for the article.

    Oct 10, 2015. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment