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Bret Kenwell  

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  • Saving For Kid's College: First Purchase Is Procter & Gamble [View article]
    Honestly, I think the author will be fine. Even if his projections are off, at least he's looking forward by 18 years and getting as close to the ball as he could. Hell, if someone saved $1,250/mo for me to go to school, I know I'd be pretty happy, regardless of whether it covered the costs or not!

    DD -- definitely an interesting way to choose stocks. I like it!
    Jun 11, 2015. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Passing On Procter & Gamble [View article]
    The author being long KO and MCD has nothing to do with PG and doesn't change the fact that investors have been willing to pay more than 20x earnings for a company that isn't growing EPS.

    Temporary or not, management has not done a very good job navigating the current environment, while commodity costs and currency swings continue to wreak havoc on its performance.

    Being a LT investor helps mitigate those worries, even if it's more than a few quarters. Still, those looking to get long don't have to plow into PG right now and that's the author's point, regardless if they are long MCD, KO or any other stock.
    May 13, 2015. 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Dividend: Eliminate It [View article]
    10 for 1 seems a tad extreme, given the stock is only ~110.
    May 7, 2015. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harman misses by $0.05, misses on revenue [View news story]
    It's actually pretty impressive how HAR has erased some 60% of its losses today, especially with broader market weakness.

    The results were kind of bad and the company clearly is the best at hedging. Lower guidance from 5.85 to 5.65 still gives ~28% EPS growth in 2015 and by using the LOW end estimates for 2016, we're looking at like 20% EPS growth.

    that's not too bad, given that the stock trades at about 22x this year's earnings for EPS growth over 20%.
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harman misses by $0.05, misses on revenue [View news story]
    I'm not a big fan of excusing results on currency...but 4% rev growth total, 14% ex-currency. that's pretty good. EPS also took a decent sized hit from non-recurring restructuring charges related to M&A.

    Hopefully just a bump in the road and HAR puts up strong results in 2H 2015.
    Apr 30, 2015. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Should Pay For Starbucks [View article]
    What I've learned after missing the boat on a number of companies, is that a premium company always trades with a premium valuation.

    Be it Starbucks or Disney or Facebook, (long the first two).

    Starbucks just posted EPS and revenue growth of 18% and comps growth of 7%, way above expectations of 5%.

    Howard Schultz continues to dominate and has so many initiatives underway it's insane.

    On pure numbers, sure. The valuation may be hard to get around. But buying a quality company comes with premium prices and SBUX has a growth plan in place to continue moving forward well into the future. Sometimes you just need to close your eyes and buy.

    If you can't then there are plenty of value names to choose from instead.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors slides 3.1% on earning miss [View news story]
    I sold a little more than half of my Ford position a week or two ago. The company does have a lot going for it in terms of the new F-150 and such.

    But management has said repeatedly that the F-150 isn't up to full production and won't be until some point in the second quarter. The 2nd half of the year is likely to be better than the first.

    And honestly, Ford has not been very good about handling its currency exposure. Maybe the recent selloff accounts for all of that, but I didn't want so much exposure headed into the results.

    Just my 2c. -Bret
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera up 6.8% late on increased buyback plan, refranchising deals [View news story]
    I've owned this stock for the past several years and it largely missed the entire rally since the start of 2013.

    I had debated selling it, although I am very patient and still like its long-term prospects. Finally, I am so glad that management is rewarding those patient shareholders and doing something to drive the stock higher while its new initiatives and PNRA 2.0 kick in.
    Apr 16, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera Highly Undervalued After Fourth Quarter Earnings Release [View article]
    Personally, I don't think PNRA is as undervalued compared to its peers, as it is more that PNRA's peers are simply overvalued.

    I'm long PNRA and have been for several years, watching the stocks flutter between 150 and 190, it's almost a better trading vehicle than investment, as it has missed the entire market gain for the past two years now. I'm deciding what I want to do with it.

    I also wouldn't necessary say PNRA is deeply undervalued, IMHO. High single digit revenue growth is good, not great. But its earnings growth is abysmal, admittedly due to some of its initiatives and investments in 2.0.

    I'm not really bearish on the stock, it's just, paying 23 to 24 times next year's earnings, which are declining yoy, doesn't exactly scream 'BUY!' to me.
    Mar 23, 2015. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks to split 2-for-1 [View news story]
    Good for sentiment, although it seems like it works better on stocks that are very high dollar (Google, Apple, MasterCard).
    Mar 18, 2015. 02:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Details on Ford's U.S. sales report [View news story]
    There's definitely demand for the new truck. That's pretty evident. I'm not worried about q1 or the next few months, because this is a longer term story playing out with the f-150.
    Mar 3, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Details on Ford's U.S. sales report [View news story]
    "And keep in mind, the F-150 changeover and downtime at our Kansas City plant will impact the first quarter."

    -- Mark Fields, CEO

    This is a promising sign for demand though:

    Ford says the new F-150 is one of its fastest-turning vehicles on dealer lots with a sell rate 4X the industry full-size pickup average.
    Mar 3, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Absolutely, Positively, Retire Early... Maybe [View article]
    Reminds me of the saying,

    'A goal without a plan is just a wish.'

    Fitting for this article. Thanks for writing.

    Feb 27, 2015. 01:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WhiteWave Foods: Buy High, Sell Higher? [View article]
    Solid analysis. In a recent instablog post, I too stated that I am waiting for a pullback to $36 or lower.

    I am long a starter position and wanted to see what this quarter looked like before getting long. Now, I'm waiting patiently, and hoping, it gets down to $36.

    The Post:

    Thanks for the analysis!

    Feb 19, 2015. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Awesome job!

    Many investors never get to tell an $8-to-$91 stock story. Here's to hoping more people can tell similar stories in the future.

    Happy Mardi Gras!

    Feb 14, 2015. 11:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment