Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
Perhaps. I have no problem with people trading Vol. I just don't like it. I have a few times and never really got too hurt, but there are just so many times it trades so wacky.
I don't like the feeling. I don't feel hedged or safe enough doing it. But for others, they're completely fine with it! It depends on the trader. It's not for me, and this is my alternative.
If you do take the TVIX position, be nimble and good luck out there!!
Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
The options are all very adjustable. You could use the Feb's too if you wanted to make sure. In my opinion, I've usually used the weeklies, but this time did the monthlies.
There's no guarantee -- and never is -- but usually this movement only takes a few days to happen. But the choice is up to the buyer. It is perfectly fine using the Feb or Mar options.
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
DJ,
Let me first state that I am certainly a believer in the charts. I use fundamental analysis to pick a side, and the charts to pick an entry. I don't favor the bull side or the bear side, and frankly, try and keep it emotionless.
That being said, SA does not like a focus on TA. That's just the way it is. Believe it or not, many times have I and others been turned down because or ideas were too short term or based on too much TA. They want their articles to be based on fundamentals, with no more than a brief breakdown on the TA side of things.
Selling premium works best when there is less than 45 days remaining. Any more and the risks could start to outweigh the reward. In the article, I do suggest writing puts when the stock is closer to $500 and outlined what a trade similar to that would look like by using an ATM example.
Apple has appeared weak, obviously, as you did state. Momentum is down and there is no doubt Apple will have trouble recapturing it the upside. But I think they've got a few years left of solid, double digit growth (again pending a new device and a deal with CHL) and that is currently trading at a discount relative to its earnings.
Panera Bread Company: Is The Growth Sustainable? [View article]
Joe,
I really appreciate the kind words! Panera just LOOKS great. I mean, that long-term chart is as strong as a bull -- no pun intended! Then, when you glance at and see a P/E like that...ya gotta wonder, "does it deserve that?" Sure enough, Panera is growing well and I like it a lot.
For the record I love SBUX too. Schultz is a great leader and I like what the company does! Charts are turning around as well.
Ford Cars, Utilities and Trucks All Post U.S. Sales Gains in 2012; Company Posts Best December Sales Since 2006 [View article]
Awesome that you guys (SA) can get us things like this. The conference calls from earnings and sales announcements are so valuable to have. Thank you !!!
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
Nice work Chenmj. Selling puts can be a great way of gaining exposure to long stock. Getting paid to enter doesn't always work out, but often times it does! Good move.
Robehifi -- Thanks for the kind words! I truly appreciate them!
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
The stock always seem to trade at a discount, at least in my opinion. Not always, but many times. Then I think -- like you said -- all of sudden investors were worried about future growth, thinking it was over. Perhaps it is -- in 5 years. 10 years. But not today. There's a lot more iPhones to sell before that!
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
Excellent point wdchil and I appreciate your kind words. I previously wrote an article about Apple that referenced the same survey as the one above by Goldman. Here is what I wrote, which might help with your comment:
"The survey from Goldman Sachs also noted that analysts believe each iOS user is approximately valued at $1,053. The firm has projected that this will point to at least $295 billion in future profits. This figure is not based off the "likely" or "highly likely" category. This figure ($295 billion) is derived from the 21% who would "not switch devices at any cost." This makes it very clear that Apple has an extremely strong loyalty base.
Another survey, this time by UBS, would indicate that over 30% of Android users plan to make the iPhone their next purchase. Furthermore, they suggest that 89% of Apple's iPhone users plan to stick with the smartphone maker as their next purchase. Though Apple likely can't and won't thrive forever, retaining 90% of its users, while adding 30% of competitors' users, will only beef up the balance sheet."
Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
I don't like the feeling. I don't feel hedged or safe enough doing it. But for others, they're completely fine with it! It depends on the trader. It's not for me, and this is my alternative.
If you do take the TVIX position, be nimble and good luck out there!!
Bret
Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
Cheers,
Bret
Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
There's no guarantee -- and never is -- but usually this movement only takes a few days to happen. But the choice is up to the buyer. It is perfectly fine using the Feb or Mar options.
Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
If you don't want to use options or wait until tomorrow's open, you can always short SPY in the after hours.
Thanks for the kind words 444!
Bret
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
Let me first state that I am certainly a believer in the charts. I use fundamental analysis to pick a side, and the charts to pick an entry. I don't favor the bull side or the bear side, and frankly, try and keep it emotionless.
That being said, SA does not like a focus on TA. That's just the way it is. Believe it or not, many times have I and others been turned down because or ideas were too short term or based on too much TA. They want their articles to be based on fundamentals, with no more than a brief breakdown on the TA side of things.
Selling premium works best when there is less than 45 days remaining. Any more and the risks could start to outweigh the reward. In the article, I do suggest writing puts when the stock is closer to $500 and outlined what a trade similar to that would look like by using an ATM example.
Apple has appeared weak, obviously, as you did state. Momentum is down and there is no doubt Apple will have trouble recapturing it the upside. But I think they've got a few years left of solid, double digit growth (again pending a new device and a deal with CHL) and that is currently trading at a discount relative to its earnings.
Thanks for your comment and suggestions,
Bret
Panera Bread Company: Is The Growth Sustainable? [View article]
I really appreciate the kind words! Panera just LOOKS great. I mean, that long-term chart is as strong as a bull -- no pun intended! Then, when you glance at and see a P/E like that...ya gotta wonder, "does it deserve that?" Sure enough, Panera is growing well and I like it a lot.
For the record I love SBUX too. Schultz is a great leader and I like what the company does! Charts are turning around as well.
Ford Cars, Utilities and Trucks All Post U.S. Sales Gains in 2012; Company Posts Best December Sales Since 2006 [View article]
Bret
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
Robehifi -- Thanks for the kind words! I truly appreciate them!
Cheers,
Bret
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
Bret
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
Thanks for commenting,
Bret
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
"The survey from Goldman Sachs also noted that analysts believe each iOS user is approximately valued at $1,053. The firm has projected that this will point to at least $295 billion in future profits. This figure is not based off the "likely" or "highly likely" category. This figure ($295 billion) is derived from the 21% who would "not switch devices at any cost." This makes it very clear that Apple has an extremely strong loyalty base.
Another survey, this time by UBS, would indicate that over 30% of Android users plan to make the iPhone their next purchase. Furthermore, they suggest that 89% of Apple's iPhone users plan to stick with the smartphone maker as their next purchase. Though Apple likely can't and won't thrive forever, retaining 90% of its users, while adding 30% of competitors' users, will only beef up the balance sheet."
If that interested you, the rest of the article can be read here: http://seekingalpha.co...
Thanks for commenting!
Bret
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
Bret
Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
Ford: Ready For More Gains? Part II [View article]
There are a lot of pitfalls that I wish I knew about when I started off. It would've saved me a lot of $$!
Good luck,
Bret