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Bret Kenwell  

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  • Get Ready For The Second Round Of The Market Downturn [View article]
    Kudos -- I think this is a better explanation than the article, and a reason why comment sections are so good.

    Also, thank you for taking the time to read my response, probably twice as long of one that I've ever written.

    The oversupply issue in oil was almost certainly exacerbated by the incredibly low financing available. And while some people are pushing for more QE at this point, I too see no reason to maintain ZIRP now that we are clearly past a recession. What will the Fed do if we slip again? They are essentially out of ammunition.

    Bull markets never end well. Investors don't just say, 'well, let's have this one quietly go down for a few years.' It takes a true disruption. Maybe the issues in other global economies will be what sets that off in US equities.

    I'm not sure, and for that matter, neither is anyone. Personally, I just have a really hard time believing we will have a bear market (and I mean a real bear market -- not a 21% drop from ATHs for 6 weeks and a subsequent rally) without a recession in the U.S.

    GDP, ISM -- this data has to really break down for me to think this is the end for the foreseeable future. Until then, stocks can be totally irrational, up and down. I'm being cautious, but staying the course.

    Thanks for the article, but more so for the response. It was well-worded and really helped explain what is behind your thesis and makes it much stronger. Enjoy.

    -Bret
    Aug 28, 2015. 11:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    For anyone interesting, here is the article:

    http://tinyurl.com/nv2...


    Thanks again for pointing out, MidAtlanticDad.


    -Bret
    Aug 28, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    Don - jeez, not DAN! - thanks for the response. I hear you. That's very sound logic. Hopefully the company is able to correct its issues sooner, rather than later. Would certainly be good for shareholders.

    Appreciate the input as it's definitely something to think about.

    -Bret
    Aug 28, 2015. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Second Round Of The Market Downturn [View article]
    I'm no steadfast bull by any means, but all you've done is come out here and pound the table that the next great bear market is coming -- but WHY?

    I don't really see any true explanation about WHY stocks are doomed -- just that they are apparently doomed. If you don't give us a reason, why should we believe you, especially when you say:

    "I have been persistently bearish on the broader U.S. stock market for several years."

    So, going back to the start of 2013 for example, (several years), you were 'persistently bearish' at a time when the S&P 500 has risen 41% since. If you've been this wrong for this long, why should we think that will change? Although you do acknowledge this much, so I commend you on that.

    Next you say:

    "Through a series of articles, I have articulated my belief that the U.S. stock market is in its third bubble of the past 15 years, and that investors should raise cash, and look to buy undervalued, out-of-favor assets, including commodity stocks."


    So not only have you been wrong for years now, but investors should raise cash and buy the one sector that continues to suffer from lack of demand, over supply and a strong U.S. dollar? And cash out of one of the very few assets that have been consistent for the past few years?

    And what 'bubble' are we in? If this is indeed a bubble, it is the most well-recognized and most foreseen bubble I have ever witnessed. Please elaborate on what exactly the bubble is…(Fed, QE?).


    "I have voiced concern that both stock and bond markets are more overvalued today that at any prior time in my twenty year investment career."

    Now I know you have to be kidding. Is this the same Nasdaq as 2000? Are all stocks, generally speaking, as overvalued as they were in the midst of the dot-com boom and bust?

    I don't think so. While equities aren't necessarily cheap, many have been able to make an argument that they’re not THAT expensive either.


    How can you say the stock market - which fell 12.5% and its subsequent rebound is “a characteristic of bear market rallies,” and then go on to point out Peabody’s strength.

    While you do acknowledge that it's an 'extreme' case, I consider it highly irrelevant. Okay, who cares if BTU went from $1 to $2, after it fell $60. IT'S DOWN 95% over the PAST FIVE YEARS!!

    For that matter, how can you say stocks are simply in a ‘bear market rally’ (without being in a bear market, by the way), and yet, not apply the same principal to commodities, with oil rallying 10% on Thursday after falling 60% from its highs?

    Between the two, isn’t oil a closer match to a bear market rally?
    
And if we are in our ‘third bubble’ since 2000, then don’t get too excited to buy your undervalued sectors, as I’m sure the economy will get crushed and most stocks will not be spared in the selling.


    Sorry if I'm coming across as such a you-know-what in this long-winded response. But when I read this, all I hear is doom and gloom and get your survival equipment -- without any real facts to back it up. Generalizations like 'I've been bearish for years' and 'it's the most overvalued I've ever seen in my whole life' aren't valid reasons.

    I for one would like to hear WHY this market is coming to an end. If the ‘bubble’ is popping, what exactly is the bubble, and why is it popping?
    
Stocks dropped 12.5%. That’s not a reason why the world is ending either. Like I said, I’m not a perma-bull by ANY stretch. I’d just like for someone making these claims to tell me why.


    For me, stocks can be choppy. Stocks can drop. Stocks are irrational and can climb 10%, drop 15% and move anywhere in between. But a prolonged bear market is something I just don’t see, at least not until our own economy starts to break down more. And with a 3.7% GDP print for Q2, I’m not seeing a recession over the horizon any time soon.
    Aug 28, 2015. 10:44 AM | 50 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    Sentiment can be a great gauge. That's why I pointed it out! Thanks for commenting, Riddix.
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    I've seen an interesting shift in sentiment for this name -- and hopefully no one takes it the wrong way. It's simply an observation. When I wrote my first PG article in Feb. many comments were either bullish, or agreed with negative sentiment, but were staying long -- sooo, semi-bullish. Maybe neutral at worst.

    Now in this article, 'most' investors seem neutral at best, if not bearish. Obviously makes sense given the huge underperformance from Feb. until now, but definitely interesting to note.

    Thanks again everyone who took the time to read this! Enjoy -

    -Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    Totally agree. PG will not be an overnight fix. But it can be a big winner down the stretch. Do you have the link for the WSJ article, or pub date handy? Would be helpful.

    Thanks,

    -Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    Dan-

    That's a good point. But over the years (read: decades) P&G has found a way to stay relevant and do well. That's what I would be banking on happening, assuming it drops to my buy level.

    At what level would PG look attractive to you? Curious for your thoughts! Thanks,

    Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    Hey Robser -

    That's the sort of thing that will put pressure on PG. The stock will likely struggle on its own in the short-term due to its struggles, but if the overall market doesn't do well, PG won't be spared.

    What level are you looking to buy at, or at least get interested at? Originally I liked it in mid-$70s, but management never turned it around. Now I'm looking mid-$60s. - Hope I'm not being too greedy.


    -Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    Mvkingfish --

    IF PG hits $40, we're all likely to have a big problem on our hands -- and not with this stocks, likely all stocks. Personally, I don't' think it gets there. But there's two sides to every thing.

    Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    $68 isn't too bad of a price, especially if you're a LT investor.

    Thanks for commenting! -Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    Redcup -

    $60 I would imagine would be tough. We would either need a 'flash crash' type of event, like anonymous said below, or a weak market coupled with a struggling PG. $66-ish is sort of my target and I wouldn't be too surprised if it got there or close to it if the market comes in a bit over the next month or two.

    Are you long? -- Just curious. Thanks for commenting.

    -Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear And Bull Case For General Motors [View article]
    The concerns about China are certainly understandable. The company is highly dependent on the region. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. GM's yield is attractive, but it's valuation is already pretty low too, assuming an unexpected hit to EPS doesn't come along.

    That's just the reality of it. GM is far from being perfect or in a perfect situation.

    But right now it trades at about 10x earnings, and has earned $2.71 in the ttm. It is halfway through its fiscal year, but is expected to earn $4.55 in FY 2015. Even if the valuation drops down to EIGHT times earnings, the stock would then trade north of $36, or $9 higher than today.

    Thanks for the article.

    -Bret
    Aug 25, 2015. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Depot and Ford recover from early plunges [View news story]
    wasn't just F and HD. CELG down over 20%, SBUX traded down to $42. This morning's trading was breathtaking.
    Aug 24, 2015. 10:54 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    At this rate, it would be surprising if it DIDN'T go lower. Thanks for adding to the conversation!

    -Bret
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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