Seeking Alpha

Bret Kenwell

View as an RSS Feed
View Bret Kenwell's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Alibaba prices IPO at $68 [View news story]
    While I'm optimistic on BABA and YHOO, the suggestion that it will go to $100 per share in one trading session will be almost a 50% gain. The sheer size of this company's market cap should make that relatively difficult to do. Talking going from $168b valuation to $250b in ONE DAY.

    I think it goes up, but my estimates are not to these levels. Good luck to you, hope you are right.
    Sep 18 06:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Stocks Set For A Major Decline In The Fall? [View article]
    That's not a bad idea really. I mean, all cash would obviously be extreme, but I have people ask, "where should I put my money now?"

    'Now' is a difficult time time to buy anything. Fixed income yields are ridiculously low, while stocks are at all-time highs.

    I think if it were me who was JUST starting to look for places to put money to work, I would go to equities...AFTER we get that pullback.
    Aug 30 09:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Starbucks' Dividend Still A Rocket Ship? [View article]
    With no disrespect intended, look at the last paragraph you wrote. THESE are the reasons people are buying SBUX.

    Because it is a high quality, global growth BRAND, that continues to fuel higher.

    Look at its multiple. People are buying this name for its growth; not the dividend.
    Dec 31 06:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is NOT Worthless [View article]
    This is of course, a joke, correct? The market did not simply punish the company for its inability to sell its excess handsets.

    It punished BBRY because it failed to adapt. It sat back, thinking it would be king of the smartphone era, with its keyboard. It whiffed 100% on the tablet and once users left the handset maker in droves to AAPL, GOOG and Samsung, it was all but over for BBRY.

    They weren't coming back then, aren't coming back now, and won't be coming back in the future.

    BBM is a worthless, money-less piece of crap. As worthless as 3/4 of the execs in the board room. BBM will get them nowhere, and these "long-term shareholders" you speak of -- assuming any are left aside from Balsillie -- have gotten killed on this stock and now you recommend they buy more.

    The company is hemorrhaging money left and right they can hardly stand afloat. You RECOMMEND that investors buy a stock, that any big tech company could pick up for what they would consider pocket change when BBRY announced it was for sale for months on end?

    They didn't step forward, why should mom and pop?

    I'm not saying it's going to zero, but it has no forward catalysts other than "it's not worthless." In a bull market like this, one where the spoo returned almost 30%, why would you choose BBRY?
    Dec 19 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple pares early gains as SocGen cuts shares to Hold [View news story]
    I agree, it should* mean something. But it doesn't. This guy -- and any other for that matter -- just spew words and predictions out like a drunken sports fan.

    If they're way off, ahhh who cares. They were drunk, right?

    If they're right, they're some sort of disciple from the gods.

    Bottom line: If these guys were right just 60 or 70% of the time, then there is room for error. We're all humans. But for Wall Street to salivate over the B.S. "reports" from these fools is just ridiculous.
    Sep 23 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MasterCard: The Next $1,000 Stock? [View article]

    Just own V and MA :-)

    and only buy 25 shares. It's all relative. The percentage return on 250 shares of Mastercard @ 65 going to 100 is the same as 25 shares going from 650 to 1000!

    Aug 7 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • January Retail Sales Warning [View article]
    Your second data point, "This chart above shows the very cyclical nature of the growth and slowdown experienced over time," would show that a potentially great buying opportunity is at hand -- after the expected fall.

    I mean, obviously these lows came during the two crashes we've experienced since 2000, but have otherwise creating great buying opportunities for long-term investors.

    I can only hope McDonald's suffers through a multi-year under-performance. I have a very long-term time frame and am willing to buy as many shares as I can now, to enjoy later.

    Thanks for the article,

    Feb 8 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Apple At $460.68 And Why I Expect To Make Money On It [View article]
    Hey Guys, thanks for the comments. I think Cook is less "dominating" than Jobs was. While this is both a blessing and a curse, I think it is a blessing in the CHL deal because Cook is more likely to get a deal worked out, without haggling over details that would potential ruin the deal by squeezing every penny out of CHL.

    I believe the main problem is the chip. But as we speak Qualcomm is making a chip that will work for iPhones in China -- I believe. So hopefully this coupled with Cook's down to earth-ness, will be able to get a deal worked out.
    Feb 6 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Last Year's Sales And This Year's Expectations [View article]

    Just to be clear I AM both LONG and bullish ford! :) don't forget that. They've got a lot of things going for them. I'm aware of both the successes and headwinds, but remain optimistic.

    Our opinions over the short-term may differ, but we share long-term sights. Good luck to us both!
    Jan 9 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
    The options are all very adjustable. You could use the Feb's too if you wanted to make sure. In my opinion, I've usually used the weeklies, but this time did the monthlies.

    There's no guarantee -- and never is -- but usually this movement only takes a few days to happen. But the choice is up to the buyer. It is perfectly fine using the Feb or Mar options.
    Jan 7 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Herbalife: Arguments Against Ackman's Short Thesis [View article]
    So we should have a long-only market? That doesn't seem fair nor intelligent. While I try to honor both sides of the plate -- bull and bear -- I typically pull bullish over the long-run. I'm a better bull than bear, but do appreciate each approach.

    The presentation was good, by Ackman. While the author didn't defend the statement of "sometimes shorting can be excessive," it goes both ways. Sometimes buying can be excessive, for instance when a stock goes parabolic.

    I think it's appropriate for both bulls and bears to be in the market. They keep each other in check. Bears typically enjoy a better short-term movement, while bulls enjoy better long-term moves, ie: the stock market might take 2 weeks to go up 2%, but 1 day to drop the same amount. But over the course of decades, the markets appreciate, a win for bulls.

    They both serve their purpose. Having a long-only market would be as irrational as having a short-only market...
    Dec 22 02:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: A Deeper Look At Its Dividend Ability [View article]
    Well, yes and no. I mean everyone has their preferences, and there's no doubt that SDRL is not for every investors' portfolio. It fits my needs and my risk profiles and as long you do the research and take care of your positions, things should be fine.

    I mean, are there other consistent, solid, balanced companies? Yes, definitely. But a 9% yield is attractive and I think capital gains are still there for investors. It's not for everyone, just like JNJ or PG or AAPL aren't for everyone, but it works for some.

    Thanks for the comments!

    Dec 7 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Long Apple Without Buying Apple [View article]

    That's a really great question actually. Here's my thoughts on it and I did go through the different portfolios of the two. Of XLK top 10 holdings, 7 are in the QQQ top 10 holdings. The three that aren't are: Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T) and IBM.

    The main advantage of the QQQ is that is has outperformed the XLK over the 1, 3, 5 and 10 year period. Over the 10 year it has vastly outperformed the XLK.

    Aside from that, it does about 3-4 times the volume, thus tighter spreads in the options market and more liquidity, but I don't that's a huge issue.

    XLK does have a better dividend yield, so if that's important, you might want to consider that. I would hold QQQ mainly for growth purposes. If you want income there are far better places to look, IMO.

    That's essentially it. You could invest in either one and still get the same exposure to Apple. QQQ is bigger and has performed better, which is the reason I would choose it over XLK.

    Thanks for great comment!

    Nov 29 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Long Apple Without Buying Apple [View article]
    Another Apple perma-bull. New you guys would be roaming about!

    Please SidSilver, with all your financial knowledge, enlighten me on what the shame is in finding alternative ways to invest in Apple, while limiting potential downside risks? Where's the harm, seriously?

    If you invested in QQQ rather than AAPL, you did not do as well, but did far better than if you were invested in SPY, as Clayton noted above. The QQQ holder suffered much less volatility along the way.

    After just a brisk walk through your recent comments, is that all you do...stroll around SA just bashing people? Perhaps you missed the whole point of a website like this, to help each other contribute to enriching our financial knowledge. Which, as you clearly miss obvious points, I will notify you that you have indeed, not done so.

    To quote you, "thanks for today's laugh."
    Nov 29 02:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Catching A Rising Dividend And Long-Term Gains [View article]
    If you mean a sell in the short-term I agree, but I think this is a great entry point for long-term investors.
    Nov 26 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment