Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Bret Kenwell  

View Bret Kenwell's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    Hey Robser -

    That's the sort of thing that will put pressure on PG. The stock will likely struggle on its own in the short-term due to its struggles, but if the overall market doesn't do well, PG won't be spared.

    What level are you looking to buy at, or at least get interested at? Originally I liked it in mid-$70s, but management never turned it around. Now I'm looking mid-$60s. - Hope I'm not being too greedy.


    -Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    Mvkingfish --

    IF PG hits $40, we're all likely to have a big problem on our hands -- and not with this stocks, likely all stocks. Personally, I don't' think it gets there. But there's two sides to every thing.

    Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    $68 isn't too bad of a price, especially if you're a LT investor.

    Thanks for commenting! -Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25%, Is Procter & Gamble Finally A Buy? [View article]
    Redcup -

    $60 I would imagine would be tough. We would either need a 'flash crash' type of event, like anonymous said below, or a weak market coupled with a struggling PG. $66-ish is sort of my target and I wouldn't be too surprised if it got there or close to it if the market comes in a bit over the next month or two.

    Are you long? -- Just curious. Thanks for commenting.

    -Bret
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear And Bull Case For General Motors [View article]
    The concerns about China are certainly understandable. The company is highly dependent on the region. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. GM's yield is attractive, but it's valuation is already pretty low too, assuming an unexpected hit to EPS doesn't come along.

    That's just the reality of it. GM is far from being perfect or in a perfect situation.

    But right now it trades at about 10x earnings, and has earned $2.71 in the ttm. It is halfway through its fiscal year, but is expected to earn $4.55 in FY 2015. Even if the valuation drops down to EIGHT times earnings, the stock would then trade north of $36, or $9 higher than today.

    Thanks for the article.

    -Bret
    Aug 25, 2015. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Depot and Ford recover from early plunges [View news story]
    wasn't just F and HD. CELG down over 20%, SBUX traded down to $42. This morning's trading was breathtaking.
    Aug 24, 2015. 10:54 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    At this rate, it would be surprising if it DIDN'T go lower. Thanks for adding to the conversation!

    -Bret
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hey Charvo -

    I definitely agree. My point about high quality companies is that over the long haul, they tend to outperform equities -- which in general do pretty well themselves.

    For me, I don't know that I'm good enough to sell at one price, only to buy back at another. So it's easy for me to hold through times of slight overvaluation and add on dips when I see fit. I know this strategy doesn't work for everyone though, because you do take your lumps on the pullbacks.

    I personally don't see this as the next bear market, otherwise I would have no problem selling my stocks and getting out. Then again, rarely do you see the bear markets ahead of time. We'll see, but hopefully this is just a routine correction.

    Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    1GreatCFA - I don't think it's 2001 because valuations are not insanely through the roof and it's not 2008 because the financial sector isn't collapsing all around us. I assumed that didn't need to be stated.

    As for stating generalities with no explanations, why do you feel the market is poised to fall 30%? Thanks for your comments.

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Also, good assessment to the question, "Why is it that investors seem to beg for corrections, yet when they come, can't seem to pull the trigger on their favorite stocks?"

    I also agree that the dips are healthy. We've had a very extended period of time where pullbacks have been far and few between, met with plenty of buyers, and have been relatively short-lived. The volatility has sagged below its historical norms as a result.

    With all that being said, This could just be a return to a more 'normal' investing environment. That doesn't mean the S&P 500 needs to fall to 1,200, or rally to 3,000.


    Again, thanks for commenting. Great points.

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Great comments, both Minnie and Marshall.

    I agree we haven't seen much euphoria. Whether we go higher or not, I'm not sure. Good points about the stock allocation. If only I could remember where I put that crystal ball of mine.... :-)


    Thanks for your 2c.

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    I agree, really good discussion here. Thanks for the kind words and good luck.


    -bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Archman - I hear what you're saying. My point with Disney -- which I do own, FWIW -- is that if you were buying it at $120, assuming you did your homework and liked the business, why wouldn't you like it 20% cheaper?

    If you didn't do your homework and chased the stock, then not liking it down 20% makes sense. I don't think Disney will fall to $60, but that is only my opinion.

    And yes, the S&P 500, internally, has been a mess. ~30% of it is in a bear market already, but the index is holding up despite the underlying selling. I don't know if that bodes well for stocks in that many may be close to bottoming, or if it bodes poorly for it. Time will tell, I guess.

    I just stick to what I know, which is avoiding margin, keeping some dry powder and owning quality companies.


    Thanks for your comments,

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hey Franklin -

    Allow me to clarify. Most investors aren't good enough to buy stocks at the lows, sell at the highs and enjoy a rich and bountiful life thanks to their swift and accurate investment skills.

    They kick themselves on the way up, grow anxious on the way down, and tend to panic near the lows and cash out. It's the psychology of the game. The market takes its toll on you mentally, unless you are focused on the long-term and properly diversified.

    And yes, high quality companies get dragged down in the carnage, like you say. But when looking at the very long-term, stocks go higher. Owning the best of the best companies will likely enhance those gains, even if they take an unnecessary beating in the short-term.


    Thanks for commenting, I hope my response helped clarify things a bit more.

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Fritz, I would agree. The size of the pullback would probably still bother a lot of investors. But with the speed over the past two days that it happened is what is rattling many.

    That's my opinion anyway. Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
578 Comments
466 Likes