Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Bret Kenwell  

View Bret Kenwell's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Details on Ford's U.S. sales report [View news story]
    "And keep in mind, the F-150 changeover and downtime at our Kansas City plant will impact the first quarter."

    -- Mark Fields, CEO


    This is a promising sign for demand though:

    Ford says the new F-150 is one of its fastest-turning vehicles on dealer lots with a sell rate 4X the industry full-size pickup average.
    Mar 3, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Absolutely, Positively, Retire Early... Maybe [View article]
    Reminds me of the saying,

    'A goal without a plan is just a wish.'

    Fitting for this article. Thanks for writing.


    -Bk
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WhiteWave Foods: Buy High, Sell Higher? [View article]
    Solid analysis. In a recent instablog post, I too stated that I am waiting for a pullback to $36 or lower.

    I am long a starter position and wanted to see what this quarter looked like before getting long. Now, I'm waiting patiently, and hoping, it gets down to $36.

    The Post:

    http://seekingalpha.co...


    Thanks for the analysis!

    -Bret
    Feb 19, 2015. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Awesome job!

    Many investors never get to tell an $8-to-$91 stock story. Here's to hoping more people can tell similar stories in the future.

    Happy Mardi Gras!

    -Bk
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's No Reason To Buy Procter & Gamble Right Now [View article]
    Hello to those with early comments!

    I agree that PG is fabulous company, without question. I want to own this one, I really do. And hopefully, I will get my chance.

    But I just see to many headwinds in the way right now, and so does management, it seems. Given its premium valuation, I will wait and (hopefully) buy the stock at or below $80.

    Thanks for reading!
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Elkarlo-

    good question. I started with a half position in Starbucks a few years ago, hoping to buy more on a pullback. Didn't get one and finally last Feb. I increased to a full position near $70.

    Disney is a similar situation for me, only I still don't have the ideal position size yet. Still smaller than I'd prefer. Bought early and added consistently, just never got the big pullback that I thought would come.

    Can't nail 'em all! Thanks for commenting!
    Feb 4, 2015. 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    Hi everyone --

    I just want to provide a small update here, since shares have been hit hard following Alibaba's weaker-than-expected earnings results. Opinions will vary, and that's fine, but I just want to reconfigure some of the numbers in Yahoo!'s sum-of-the-parts valuation.

    It now goes:

    Alibaba stake: ~$33.75 billion
    Yahoo! Japan stake: ~$7 billion
    Net cash position: $5.2 billion
    Est. core business value: $5.2 billion

    As a total market cap, we come to roughly $51.20 billion, or about $54 per share. This is assuming YJ stake is spun off tax-free as well. If not, it will negatively impact the market cap by roughly $2.6 billion, or a few dollars per share.

    Again, I figured I would just provide a short update to match current market conditions.

    Thanks,

    -Bret
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Hey Phil -

    I'm glad to see you found this piece! The call was really magnificent and Schultz was really encouraging. Management did say H1 could be a little a weaker, while H2 would likely be stronger.

    If this is the case, q2 results could disappoint, and that may give investors who missed the boat a chance to get in, or add to smaller positions. Of course, who knows what happens, but just a theory.

    I won't sell in anticipation of that potential drop. If it falls, I'll buy more. But I see the longer term vision, which equals higher in my mind, with or without a pullback.

    Thanks for reading. Any chance you'll break your silence and give us a CMG piece to read? :) I for one would love some insight on that beast.
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Civ-e --

    While I see your point, it's one that could have been made last year. Or probably even the year before. SBUX could have a rocky quarter here or there and even said next quarter could be a little on the lower end, with strength coming in the back half of the year.

    If you're a longer term investor, I wouldn't let the quarter to quarter nonsense shake you too much. SBUX has a solid pipeline of growth and several levers to pull.


    Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    hindsight is always 20/20.

    Some will says growth has to come down at some point, and with it, the valuation. But i think these new initiatives and growth in China will give the SBUX growth story some legs for years to come.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    To be fair, while it's not the most encouraging thing in the world to see insider selling, there are indeed many reasons to sell a stock. Executives at almost every company does it and many are setup on plans to sell a set amount of stock at pre-selected date.

    While there are many reasons to sell, there's only one reason to buy: Because execs think the stock is going higher. That's why I consider buying to be more important than selling.

    Thanks for commenting!
    Feb 3, 2015. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    Great thought. Entirely possible and makes sense too.

    -Bk
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    FCARONE --

    Your opinion isn't alone; many shareholders have a similar view toward management. I can understand that type of frustration, especially over the long-term.

    Since I am not long time shareholders, I do not share those same feels though. The core business is not seeing reaccelerated growth and the YJ stake is still a question mark.

    The company performed accelerated buybacks throughout the quarter, which was their form of some capital return for shareholders.

    However, the BABA spinoff being completed in a tax-free manner is THE most important thing right now for this company, IMHO. The difference between paying full taxes versus no taxes is enormous, something like $15 billion off the top of my head. That's roughly equivalent to $15 per share!

    My views don't necessarily align with what management is doing. it has more to do with how its assets are being valued. In a perfect world, the stock would trade based on what its assets are being valued at at any given time. They do not, hence what I consider a buying opportunity.

    But I do hear you on some of those disappointments. I look forward to your other comments explaining them in more detail!

    -Bret
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    Pete, Stephen --

    I'm in the same boat, opinion-wise. Given the current market values of all of its assets, shares should be trading in the mid-$50s, even if YJ is spun off in a fully taxed manner.

    That fact the stock it is not higher provides opportunity, IMO. There will be doubt around some events (like the spinoff, YJ or the core business) but it's the same type of situation that we saw in the summer, just with different numbers.

    Yahoo and its assets were undervalued then and to a lesser extent, they still are today.


    Thanks for commenting.

    -Bret
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Reports On Friday: Let's Analyze It [View article]
    Great cash flow analysis right here and nice article on GE. Spelled out very nicely.

    Others should consider saving this piece as a nice CF and FCF template to analyze other stocks with.

    Thanks for the work!

    -Bret
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
517 Comments
316 Likes