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Bret Kenwell  

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  • January Retail Sales Warning [View article]
    Your second data point, "This chart above shows the very cyclical nature of the growth and slowdown experienced over time," would show that a potentially great buying opportunity is at hand -- after the expected fall.

    I mean, obviously these lows came during the two crashes we've experienced since 2000, but have otherwise creating great buying opportunities for long-term investors.

    I can only hope McDonald's suffers through a multi-year under-performance. I have a very long-term time frame and am willing to buy as many shares as I can now, to enjoy later.

    Thanks for the article,


    Bret
    Feb 8, 2013. 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Apple At $460.68 And Why I Expect To Make Money On It [View article]
    Hey Guys, thanks for the comments. I think Cook is less "dominating" than Jobs was. While this is both a blessing and a curse, I think it is a blessing in the CHL deal because Cook is more likely to get a deal worked out, without haggling over details that would potential ruin the deal by squeezing every penny out of CHL.

    I believe the main problem is the chip. But as we speak Qualcomm is making a chip that will work for iPhones in China -- I believe. So hopefully this coupled with Cook's down to earth-ness, will be able to get a deal worked out.
    Feb 6, 2013. 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Last Year's Sales And This Year's Expectations [View article]
    Ralph-

    Just to be clear I AM both LONG and bullish ford! :) don't forget that. They've got a lot of things going for them. I'm aware of both the successes and headwinds, but remain optimistic.

    Our opinions over the short-term may differ, but we share long-term sights. Good luck to us both!
    Jan 9, 2013. 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
    The options are all very adjustable. You could use the Feb's too if you wanted to make sure. In my opinion, I've usually used the weeklies, but this time did the monthlies.

    There's no guarantee -- and never is -- but usually this movement only takes a few days to happen. But the choice is up to the buyer. It is perfectly fine using the Feb or Mar options.
    Jan 7, 2013. 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Herbalife: Arguments Against Ackman's Short Thesis [View article]
    So we should have a long-only market? That doesn't seem fair nor intelligent. While I try to honor both sides of the plate -- bull and bear -- I typically pull bullish over the long-run. I'm a better bull than bear, but do appreciate each approach.

    The presentation was good, by Ackman. While the author didn't defend the statement of "sometimes shorting can be excessive," it goes both ways. Sometimes buying can be excessive, for instance when a stock goes parabolic.

    I think it's appropriate for both bulls and bears to be in the market. They keep each other in check. Bears typically enjoy a better short-term movement, while bulls enjoy better long-term moves, ie: the stock market might take 2 weeks to go up 2%, but 1 day to drop the same amount. But over the course of decades, the markets appreciate, a win for bulls.

    They both serve their purpose. Having a long-only market would be as irrational as having a short-only market...
    Dec 22, 2012. 02:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: A Deeper Look At Its Dividend Ability [View article]
    Well, yes and no. I mean everyone has their preferences, and there's no doubt that SDRL is not for every investors' portfolio. It fits my needs and my risk profiles and as long you do the research and take care of your positions, things should be fine.

    I mean, are there other consistent, solid, balanced companies? Yes, definitely. But a 9% yield is attractive and I think capital gains are still there for investors. It's not for everyone, just like JNJ or PG or AAPL aren't for everyone, but it works for some.

    Thanks for the comments!

    Bret
    Dec 7, 2012. 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Long Apple Without Buying Apple [View article]
    aparo201,

    That's a really great question actually. Here's my thoughts on it and I did go through the different portfolios of the two. Of XLK top 10 holdings, 7 are in the QQQ top 10 holdings. The three that aren't are: Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T) and IBM.

    The main advantage of the QQQ is that is has outperformed the XLK over the 1, 3, 5 and 10 year period. Over the 10 year it has vastly outperformed the XLK.

    Aside from that, it does about 3-4 times the volume, thus tighter spreads in the options market and more liquidity, but I don't that's a huge issue.

    XLK does have a better dividend yield, so if that's important, you might want to consider that. I would hold QQQ mainly for growth purposes. If you want income there are far better places to look, IMO.


    That's essentially it. You could invest in either one and still get the same exposure to Apple. QQQ is bigger and has performed better, which is the reason I would choose it over XLK.


    Thanks for great comment!

    Bret
    Nov 29, 2012. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Long Apple Without Buying Apple [View article]
    Another Apple perma-bull. New you guys would be roaming about!

    Please SidSilver, with all your financial knowledge, enlighten me on what the shame is in finding alternative ways to invest in Apple, while limiting potential downside risks? Where's the harm, seriously?

    If you invested in QQQ rather than AAPL, you did not do as well, but did far better than if you were invested in SPY, as Clayton noted above. The QQQ holder suffered much less volatility along the way.


    After just a brisk walk through your recent comments, is that all you do...stroll around SA just bashing people? Perhaps you missed the whole point of a website like this, to help each other contribute to enriching our financial knowledge. Which, as you clearly miss obvious points, I will notify you that you have indeed, not done so.

    To quote you, "thanks for today's laugh."
    Nov 29, 2012. 02:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Catching A Rising Dividend And Long-Term Gains [View article]
    If you mean a sell in the short-term I agree, but I think this is a great entry point for long-term investors.
    Nov 26, 2012. 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $1,000? 1 Main Catalyst [View article]
    Ronin...easily put: If he wasn't short AAPL for the ride down, it's not really taking a stance. It's easy to wonder into a comment section, say you think such and such will decline and take credit when it does.

    I have a feeling that if Apple were $850 right now, he wouldn't be here saying, "I called for Apple to fall, which it didn't. I was wrong." Just my 2 cents on the whole thing, but it what it is. Don't let it bother you :)


    Bret
    Nov 20, 2012. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Would You Like That Hot Or Cold? [View article]
    I am a trader. :)
    Aug 31, 2012. 08:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We'll see if it holds, but stocks throw a mini-tantrum at the open - the S&P 500 -0.6% (compared to recent action 0.6% feels like 6%) - seemingly demanding a good word from Bernanke tomorrow at Jackson Hole. [View news story]
    And what are we going to do when we finally STOP receiving QE..

    The problem with always supplying the user (The Market), is that as they gain more and more dependency from the giver (the Fed) and can't function without it.

    Seriously, I get that Ben saved us from a total wipe out in the market, and I agree that was the right thing to do. But Jesus, we're at 4-year highs. Growth is there, albeit slow, but c'mon man how much smack are you gonna let the market inject before you take it away.

    The markets gonna have a tantrum if we don't get more QE every August from the 'Hole.
    Aug 30, 2012. 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Would You Like That Hot Or Cold? [View article]
    I want to see $50 hold on the upside (as resistance). I would be short from there, looking to ride down to the lower $40's. I don't have an alliance to either the long or the short side. Schultz is a great CEO for a great company, which is why I would want to be long from $40 or lower.

    $32 is a great entry price, kudos to you.

    Cheers,

    Bret
    Aug 30, 2012. 02:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Would You Like That Hot Or Cold? [View article]
    Is it growing? Yes. Robustly growing? No.

    The world is growing, but at a sloooow pace, squeezing companies like SBUX. I like SBUX don't get me wrong, I like them a lot. But with equities getting toppy, volatility picking up, a richly valued company like SBUX is not the one I want to own right now when I could go for high dividend stocks or growth companies with low multiples (AAPL).

    SBUX will be a buy, no doubt, I just don't think that's right now.
    Aug 30, 2012. 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Mini iPad Will Kill The Kindle [View article]
    Maverick (in third person apparently),

    You seem to be an Apple hater, or at the very least someone who does not prefer Apple products. Maybe it's because their the best in breed. Maybe because you like the underdog and Apple is now the top dog. Whatever your reasons may be, you can't fight the with the "Apple is a lousy product" mantra.

    Let me begin by saying, Amazon does NOT have "hundreds of millions of kindles in their users hands." Simple logic to one who has almost no knowledge of stocks or companies would know that this is not true. Hundreds of millions..You were kidding right?

    You mention Apple on a value basis, while defending the kindle. You do realize, (and perhaps your inexperienced with the mathematics behind finance) that Apple trades with a P/E ~14, while Amazon trades with a P/E of almost 300?
    To take this comment one length further, Apple on an earnings basis kills it. Amazon couldn't even beat earnings while analysts estimated a 2 CENTS per share. They missed earnings on a two cent estimate.

    Before critiquing and Apple sales model (or earnings model) it would help if Amazon could at least sell their tablet for a profit--which by the way, it does not.

    If Apple were half as bad or as inferior to its competitors as you make it sound it would not have the kind of success it has already had. They're not just a big tech name, they're the biggest company in the WORLD! With over $100 billion in the bank.

    If you don't like them, that's your opinion and totally entitled to it. By you can't build much a case against their products. This many people would not be lined up to get their hands on new Apple gadgets if they were a piece of crap. They are Goliath, and whatever grudge you have against them doesn't matter, because they're still the best in the biz.
    Aug 8, 2012. 08:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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