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Bret Kenwell  

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  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hey Newnnly-

    So glad you brought this up. Hindsight is 20/20. In 2008, it really felt like the financial world was ending. Even though folks knew that stocks go up over the long-term, when you're out there, watching your life savings drop 50% or more, it's really tough to hang tight and hold on.

    I don't expect that to happen again, because it's far from the same circumstances. But I do understand why others couldn't hold on. Consider that many lost more than the S&P 500, which was down about 40%.

    For example, look at Apple and Disney and many others right now, down more than 20% while the S&P 500 is down just 7.5%.

    It's tough, but like you said, staying true to your strategy is how one perseveres through such noise. Sticking to quality companies is certainly a good method, and the one that I choose.

    I can't predict market swings, when they will happen or how much they will move. But I can sleep soundly knowing my money is in good companies at decent prices with excellent management teams.


    Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hannan-

    Let's hope our 80 year old investor has most of their money in safe, less volatile assets. Or at least has a plan for when stocks pullback, for which they always will! :-)

    I get your point though.

    Thanks for commenting,

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Doug -- what a great comment. I particularly love this:

    "Didn't Buffett just make a huge new investment? Focus on buying great companies and be thankful for the sale."

    By and large, pullbacks of 5% to 10% are extremely common. It's just that this bull market has had such little volatility over the past few years that it's catching people offsides.

    I'm losing money this week, like any other 'schmuck.' A few trader friends of mine are doing great. But I'm not a trader, I'm an investor. I follow cash flows and margins, not trend lines and moving averages.

    The recent volatility does nothing to me, other than make me consider how much to buy of my best-in-breed. Quality companies will always get through the noise and this time isn't any different. It's not 1929 or 2008 -- it's a pullback in stocks.

    Like you said, ignore the fear mongering, get out a piece of paper and write down your top stocks. Decide what you want to pay for them and make your move when it's best for you. Panicking isn't a strategy, it's a wealth-destroying reaction.


    Thanks again for commenting. Wise words.


    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    pbanik -- nice comment.

    For me, the way I see it is that we're 70% of the way towards a correction, a reaction many investors are looking for now. Doesn't mean it stops at down 10%, but I think it's premature for many to start talking about a collapse. Let's not forget, pullbacks of this magnitude, historically speaking, are extremely common.

    I just find it hard to believe we're going to slip into a recession, thus stocks falling into bear market territory. What has happened in the past 2 weeks that has really changed anything?

    China PMI? China's stock market? Oil prices?

    A combination of all three are likely weighing on sentiment.

    But we're not in China, we're in the U.S. Consumers benefit from lower oil prices and our economy is doing good - not great - but good. Europe is improving. There are things to hang our hats on and although not everything is perfect, we don't have to invest in a world that is either goldilocks or a depression.

    There's room in between.


    Sorry for my rant, it was not directed at you. I agree, buying quality companies will save many investors in the long-term.

    Thanks for commenting.

    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hey Poortorich -

    Thanks for commenting. I really agree with your sentiment.

    I look to buy high quality companies at decent prices. I don't use margin and I don't load up on excessive amounts of leverage. Those that do understandably have restless nights on weeks like this.

    But I agree. When volatility climbs as fast as it has in recent days, it opens up a buying opportunity for long-term investors looking for quality stocks.

    It also gives people a chance to buy stocks they've had on their watch list, but have missed the ride so far. Unfortunately, fear will paralyze many investors from pulling the trigger. For many, the volatility serves as a reminder as to how one should balance their portfolio for their risk tolerance.

    On Friday, I used the selloff to add to a few names. Am I early? Maybe, probably. But they are high quality, have good management teams, and eventually the stocks will trade higher as a result.


    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Blaise-

    This is just my personal opinion, but my feelings are that in the short-term, we are overdone. The VIX doubled last and the QQQ fell more than 4% on Friday alone. The ETFs top weighting are names like AAPL, FB and GOOGL -- all high quality stocks.

    We might ultimately bottom at lower prices, but in the short-term, it feels overdone. With that being said, investors who are focused on the long-term don't have to add to their positions in full size.

    Let's say you were looking to put $1,000 to work, just for an example. Currently, at down 7% you could put 1/3 of it into the market. Then down 14% or 15%, or whatever amount you want, you could do another 1/3.

    That way you can scale into the market without putting it all on the line on day 1, but also have some dry powder to buy on further declines.

    Just my 2c. What are your thoughts?


    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Hey Ham, thanks for the comment.

    I'm not sure how it will all play out or what will become of it, but I can't help but think the student debt issue will become a problem. I read an article in the WSJ this weekend about the number of loans in default, that being students who haven't made a payment in over 12 months. Off the top of my head, I believe it was 7 million in default, up 5% or 6% from last year.

    I don't really like the idea of just 'forgiving' the debt, both from a taxpayer's perspective and from a point of principal.

    But with that being said, I'm not really sure how to fix the problem other than trying to fix it going forward. By and large, the schools charge to much and increase tuition rates too fast. It leaves too many young people owing tens of thousands, only to struggle getting a job after school, especially one that pays well.

    Not only is it hard on them economically, but it weighs on the economy. They're less likely to buy homes or cars, or just plain old goods and services. At least for a while. It's a problem that I think will come home to roost, just not today.

    The government doesn't tend to address problems until they're right in front of them, swerving at the last minute instead of making the necessary changes before we get to that tipping point.


    -Bret
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Everyone Asked For, But Nobody Wants [View article]
    Thanks, Edi222. Appreciate your comment. Take care, good luck.
    Aug 23, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Growth At A Reasonable Price? [View article]
    Same here. It's been a rough go as of late, pounded lower by 10% over the past three days. But, obviously looking longer-term.

    I guess one thing to hang your hat on -- aside from the situation I laid out up top -- is that its 2015 lows are around $95-ish, which will hopefully act as some support.

    Valuation is really attractive for future growth. Thanks for commenting!!
    Aug 21, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Sell-Off Is A Gift [View article]
    I'm within you Minutemen, almost to perfection. Bought at $50, $80, $100 and then more at $100 on the latest drop. LT, DIS is doing just fine.
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Growth At A Reasonable Price? [View article]
    Tami -

    Glad you found it useful, that's always the ultimate goal!


    Thanks for sharing,

    -Bret
    Aug 21, 2015. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Contrarian View On Panera [View article]
    Kipp --

    I actually did the same exact thing - sold right at $200 today. While 2.0 could help turn the company around, it just seemed like too many bulls were using "hope" as part of the recipe. I've been listening to the unfolding of 2.0 for many quarters, and still don't have the results I'm looking for given its valuation.

    The buyback is nice and all, but there are far better investments at this point.


    -Bret
    Aug 11, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Contrarian View On Panera [View article]
    Great article, Josh. Enjoyed it.
    Aug 10, 2015. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harman beats by $0.05, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Essentially in-line with analysts. stock dropped 5% y'day on the news, but now up almost 5%.
    Aug 7, 2015. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitbit beats by $0.13, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Man, this was one that I couldn't stay long anymore, but absolutely crushed it. Those results are insane, and guidance was strong too. I'm surprised to see it off 10% in AH.
    Aug 5, 2015. 04:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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