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Bret Kenwell  

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  • Mr. Market Errs In Valuing Ford Motor At 9 Times Earnings [View article]
    This is a flawed argument, in my opinion:

    "Ford Motor should be at the top of investors' shopping lists because the company could become a major beneficiary of General Motors' (NYSE:GM) recall disaster as customers lose confidence in the once-mighty brand and migrate over to competitors."

    If it has yet to become a major beneficiary, which Ford has not, why on earth has it not happened yet? GM continues to post monthly sales gain after monthly sales gain, while Ford fails to reap any benefits from the GM recall disaster.


    Granted, I am long Ford, no position on GM, but this argument was valid in March..not headed into August.
    Jul 31, 2014. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    It's not a difficult concept. But the company is making its move into organic, where it never was before.

    I don't know why it's so difficult to have a polite and constructive discussion, so I guess I am done here.
    Jul 30, 2014. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    Gary

    I don't really get your point. Your making it sound as though I'm a full-blown bull on WMT.

    I am not, for the record.

    But to shrug off the largest retailer on earth and say, 'Oh, it will have not effect on WFM' is purely irresponsible and ignorant.

    WFM has already said it is focused on lower pricing. Seriously, what's your beef?
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    My assumption isn't that WMT shoppers buy a lot of organic. But what I'm saying is that WMT has an incredible amount of pricing power.

    If its lower prices pressure WFM's competitors, it can ultimately put pressure on WFM to lower its prices.

    So WMT won't steal WFM customers away, but it can certainly put pressure on pricing. The question is whether volume will offset that disadvantage.
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    Here's I see Wal-Mart.

    It's rather obvious that most WFM fans aren't going to flip-flop stores. However, Wal-Mart's pricing power may put pressure on WFM's more direct competition, (SFM, TFM, Trader Joe's, etc.).

    If those companies feel like they have to lower price to stay competitive, WFM may have to too. After all, while many WFM shoppers won't switch to WMT, they might to one of its other competitors.

    This is how WMT could negatively effect WFM moving forward.
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    Hey everyone --

    Thanks for the comments. My real hope here is that Whole Foods does indeed disappoints on Wednesday. Perhaps in-line results would send the stock lower, and I can only hope that that's the case.

    I say that because it would hopefully mean a bottoming in the stock price, and would represent a great buying opportunity. I want to buy more shares, but am also patient enough to realize that I can wait for WFM to prove the decline is over.

    Plenty of upside, just a question of when it's time to make the real push!

    Thanks for the comments!

    -Bret
    Jul 30, 2014. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Wait For Lower Entry Price After Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Gotcha. I would say near current levels, the stock is fairly to fully valued, depending which metrics you use.

    I would consider a pullback to the low-$70s a gift and where I would be buying my position. But that's just me, because I think it's plausible shares will be undervalued, but not deeply undervalued any time soon. (FD: Long SBUX)
    Jul 29, 2014. 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Wait For Lower Entry Price After Earnings Announcement [View article]
    A pullback would be nice, yes. But the third quarter was gangbusters and the fourth quarter will do well too. Fiscal 2015 guidance was still in the previous range of 15% to 20%, albeit, on the lower end.

    Still, if earnings were to grow at the very low end of that range, 15%, it would not be reason enough for 15% to 20% pullback in these stock.

    I am all for patience and buying on dips. But something of that magnitude would need to coincide with an overall market correction. SBUX is flat on the year, and has already gone through its pullback in the first six months of 2014.

    A few percent maybe, but sub-$70 levels, barring a large market correction, I just don't see it. We didn't even get to $66 in the latest pullback, and sentiment was MUCH worse then, than it likely will be for SBUX anytime in the near future.

    Just my 2c.
    Jul 29, 2014. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks testing mobile ordering system [View news story]
    I may be wrong about what SBUX is doing, but PNRA has a similar online ordering app. I believe NDLS does too. I think, unless SBUX has something extremely proprietary about its own, will have trouble licensing the platform. Just my thoughts
    Jul 18, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Bears Can't Walk And Chew Gum, Stock Heading To $700 [View article]
    I'm not sure what the P/E would have been, nor do I care enough to find out. All I know is that this guy put his price target over $400, or ~55%, above Apple's all-time high of 703-ish.

    Not only that -- and I may be completely wrong here -- but I believe his cutesy $777 price target has been around for ages.

    For me, that's all I need to see for him to lose all credibility.
    May 28, 2014. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Bears Can't Walk And Chew Gum, Stock Heading To $700 [View article]
    Richard,

    In Blair's defense, Brian White has never been, shall we say, a pro at calling Apple's future price. Remember $1,111?

    Nice piece though!

    Cheers,

    -Bret
    May 28, 2014. 01:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Yahoo Here Is A No-Brainer [View article]
    Matt, I think you're missing Bret's point.

    Even on the low end of the range, even at $115b -- which doesn't seem right given the estimates around $150b or so -- YHOO's position in Alibaba is almost equal to its own market cap as of now.

    I think it has everyone sort of scratching their head, trying to figure it out.

    Either the market is nervous about the IPO and is mis-pricing YHOO, or it doesn't think the valuation will turn out to be that high.

    And there's no reason to focus on Jenson saying he's not a buyer of Alibaba, considering the article is on YHOO.
    May 17, 2014. 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla completes its own Cannonball Run [View news story]
    Man, that is seriously awesome.
    Jan 26, 2014. 09:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Starbucks' Dividend Still A Rocket Ship? [View article]
    With no disrespect intended, look at the last paragraph you wrote. THESE are the reasons people are buying SBUX.

    Because it is a high quality, global growth BRAND, that continues to fuel higher.

    Look at its multiple. People are buying this name for its growth; not the dividend.
    Dec 31, 2013. 06:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is NOT Worthless [View article]
    I will admit that Chen is 50000000000000 times better than Thorsten Heins...He deserved nothing from BBRY, yet was paid millions.
    Dec 19, 2013. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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