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Bret Kenwell  

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  • What You Should Pay For Starbucks [View article]
    What I've learned after missing the boat on a number of companies, is that a premium company always trades with a premium valuation.

    Be it Starbucks or Disney or Facebook, (long the first two).

    Starbucks just posted EPS and revenue growth of 18% and comps growth of 7%, way above expectations of 5%.

    Howard Schultz continues to dominate and has so many initiatives underway it's insane.

    On pure numbers, sure. The valuation may be hard to get around. But buying a quality company comes with premium prices and SBUX has a growth plan in place to continue moving forward well into the future. Sometimes you just need to close your eyes and buy.

    If you can't then there are plenty of value names to choose from instead.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors slides 3.1% on earning miss [View news story]
    I sold a little more than half of my Ford position a week or two ago. The company does have a lot going for it in terms of the new F-150 and such.

    But management has said repeatedly that the F-150 isn't up to full production and won't be until some point in the second quarter. The 2nd half of the year is likely to be better than the first.

    And honestly, Ford has not been very good about handling its currency exposure. Maybe the recent selloff accounts for all of that, but I didn't want so much exposure headed into the results.

    Just my 2c. -Bret
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera up 6.8% late on increased buyback plan, refranchising deals [View news story]
    I've owned this stock for the past several years and it largely missed the entire rally since the start of 2013.

    I had debated selling it, although I am very patient and still like its long-term prospects. Finally, I am so glad that management is rewarding those patient shareholders and doing something to drive the stock higher while its new initiatives and PNRA 2.0 kick in.
    Apr 16, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera Highly Undervalued After Fourth Quarter Earnings Release [View article]
    Personally, I don't think PNRA is as undervalued compared to its peers, as it is more that PNRA's peers are simply overvalued.

    I'm long PNRA and have been for several years, watching the stocks flutter between 150 and 190, it's almost a better trading vehicle than investment, as it has missed the entire market gain for the past two years now. I'm deciding what I want to do with it.

    I also wouldn't necessary say PNRA is deeply undervalued, IMHO. High single digit revenue growth is good, not great. But its earnings growth is abysmal, admittedly due to some of its initiatives and investments in 2.0.

    I'm not really bearish on the stock, it's just, paying 23 to 24 times next year's earnings, which are declining yoy, doesn't exactly scream 'BUY!' to me.
    Mar 23, 2015. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks to split 2-for-1 [View news story]
    Good for sentiment, although it seems like it works better on stocks that are very high dollar (Google, Apple, MasterCard).
    Mar 18, 2015. 02:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Details on Ford's U.S. sales report [View news story]
    There's definitely demand for the new truck. That's pretty evident. I'm not worried about q1 or the next few months, because this is a longer term story playing out with the f-150.
    Mar 3, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Details on Ford's U.S. sales report [View news story]
    "And keep in mind, the F-150 changeover and downtime at our Kansas City plant will impact the first quarter."

    -- Mark Fields, CEO


    This is a promising sign for demand though:

    Ford says the new F-150 is one of its fastest-turning vehicles on dealer lots with a sell rate 4X the industry full-size pickup average.
    Mar 3, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Absolutely, Positively, Retire Early... Maybe [View article]
    Reminds me of the saying,

    'A goal without a plan is just a wish.'

    Fitting for this article. Thanks for writing.


    -Bk
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WhiteWave Foods: Buy High, Sell Higher? [View article]
    Solid analysis. In a recent instablog post, I too stated that I am waiting for a pullback to $36 or lower.

    I am long a starter position and wanted to see what this quarter looked like before getting long. Now, I'm waiting patiently, and hoping, it gets down to $36.

    The Post:

    http://seekingalpha.co...


    Thanks for the analysis!

    -Bret
    Feb 19, 2015. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Awesome job!

    Many investors never get to tell an $8-to-$91 stock story. Here's to hoping more people can tell similar stories in the future.

    Happy Mardi Gras!

    -Bk
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's No Reason To Buy Procter & Gamble Right Now [View article]
    Hello to those with early comments!

    I agree that PG is fabulous company, without question. I want to own this one, I really do. And hopefully, I will get my chance.

    But I just see to many headwinds in the way right now, and so does management, it seems. Given its premium valuation, I will wait and (hopefully) buy the stock at or below $80.

    Thanks for reading!
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Elkarlo-

    good question. I started with a half position in Starbucks a few years ago, hoping to buy more on a pullback. Didn't get one and finally last Feb. I increased to a full position near $70.

    Disney is a similar situation for me, only I still don't have the ideal position size yet. Still smaller than I'd prefer. Bought early and added consistently, just never got the big pullback that I thought would come.

    Can't nail 'em all! Thanks for commenting!
    Feb 4, 2015. 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Will Spin Off Alibaba, But Is There Still Money To Be Made? [View article]
    Hi everyone --

    I just want to provide a small update here, since shares have been hit hard following Alibaba's weaker-than-expected earnings results. Opinions will vary, and that's fine, but I just want to reconfigure some of the numbers in Yahoo!'s sum-of-the-parts valuation.

    It now goes:

    Alibaba stake: ~$33.75 billion
    Yahoo! Japan stake: ~$7 billion
    Net cash position: $5.2 billion
    Est. core business value: $5.2 billion

    As a total market cap, we come to roughly $51.20 billion, or about $54 per share. This is assuming YJ stake is spun off tax-free as well. If not, it will negatively impact the market cap by roughly $2.6 billion, or a few dollars per share.

    Again, I figured I would just provide a short update to match current market conditions.

    Thanks,

    -Bret
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Hey Phil -

    I'm glad to see you found this piece! The call was really magnificent and Schultz was really encouraging. Management did say H1 could be a little a weaker, while H2 would likely be stronger.

    If this is the case, q2 results could disappoint, and that may give investors who missed the boat a chance to get in, or add to smaller positions. Of course, who knows what happens, but just a theory.

    I won't sell in anticipation of that potential drop. If it falls, I'll buy more. But I see the longer term vision, which equals higher in my mind, with or without a pullback.

    Thanks for reading. Any chance you'll break your silence and give us a CMG piece to read? :) I for one would love some insight on that beast.
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Of Selling Starbucks? Read This First [View article]
    Civ-e --

    While I see your point, it's one that could have been made last year. Or probably even the year before. SBUX could have a rocky quarter here or there and even said next quarter could be a little on the lower end, with strength coming in the back half of the year.

    If you're a longer term investor, I wouldn't let the quarter to quarter nonsense shake you too much. SBUX has a solid pipeline of growth and several levers to pull.


    Thanks for commenting!

    -Bret
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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