Seeking Alpha

Bret Kenwell

 
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  • Panera Bread Company: Is The Growth Sustainable? [View article]
    haha 99.9/.1 sound good. You 99.9 of course ;)
    Jan 11 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Or MasterCard: Which One Belongs In Your Wallet? [View article]
    haha oh man...better just shut off the computer and sit in hole for 2013. Maybe sip on some SAM while the gains are still there! :) Good luck! Duck and cover from the GS artillery strikes!
    Jan 11 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Or MasterCard: Which One Belongs In Your Wallet? [View article]
    Uh-oh...another huge favorite of mine (Ford F) was "upgraded" to the conviction list at Goldman. F and V...now that's trouble!
    Jan 11 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Last Year's Sales And This Year's Expectations [View article]
    Indeed we would Steve, indeed we would!
    Jan 11 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay: Is The Growth Real? [View article]
    Joe,

    Thanks for comments. I want to quickly point out I really appreciate you taking the time to read, as well as comment on my articles. Whether its in agreement or not, I appreciate you taking the time to do so, both in the past and in the future.

    I think eBay looks great though. PayPal is just now getting some exposure and I think this is going to be the future revenue driver. Seriously, I use it, I love it. For more than just eBay.

    Marketplace is the money maker, but PayPal has the largest growth for eBay. I think it will do great in the next 5 years or so.
    Jan 9 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Or MasterCard: Which One Belongs In Your Wallet? [View article]
    Some above have stated that the stock looks "frothy." Both V and MA are hitting new highs today. They might seem a little expensive, but these stocks are growth stocks. Growth stocks rarely come with much discount, it usually requires investors to "pay-up" for these names, with the expectation that they'll continue to grow over the years.

    The argument is valid, and I would wait for a pullback to add. You can see on the charts the these pullbacks are regular -- and healthy. I would add on those dips, and continue to ride both of these stock until something fundamentally changes.


    Thanks for the comments everyone!

    Bret
    Jan 9 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
    Then it's one hell of a coincidence!
    Jan 9 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
    Perhaps. I have no problem with people trading Vol. I just don't like it. I have a few times and never really got too hurt, but there are just so many times it trades so wacky.

    I don't like the feeling. I don't feel hedged or safe enough doing it. But for others, they're completely fine with it! It depends on the trader. It's not for me, and this is my alternative.

    If you do take the TVIX position, be nimble and good luck out there!!

    Bret
    Jan 8 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Your Portfolio Against Volatility [View article]
    Ahhh, I fast-tracked it, but juuuuuust missed the close. Sorry to everyone else too. I tried very hard.

    If you don't want to use options or wait until tomorrow's open, you can always short SPY in the after hours.

    Thanks for the kind words 444!

    Bret
    Jan 7 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
    Excellent point wdchil and I appreciate your kind words. I previously wrote an article about Apple that referenced the same survey as the one above by Goldman. Here is what I wrote, which might help with your comment:

    "The survey from Goldman Sachs also noted that analysts believe each iOS user is approximately valued at $1,053. The firm has projected that this will point to at least $295 billion in future profits. This figure is not based off the "likely" or "highly likely" category. This figure ($295 billion) is derived from the 21% who would "not switch devices at any cost." This makes it very clear that Apple has an extremely strong loyalty base.

    Another survey, this time by UBS, would indicate that over 30% of Android users plan to make the iPhone their next purchase. Furthermore, they suggest that 89% of Apple's iPhone users plan to stick with the smartphone maker as their next purchase. Though Apple likely can't and won't thrive forever, retaining 90% of its users, while adding 30% of competitors' users, will only beef up the balance sheet."

    If that interested you, the rest of the article can be read here: http://seekingalpha.co...


    Thanks for commenting!

    Bret
    Jan 3 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Ready For More Gains? Part II [View article]
    Hi Halito,

    I'm glad it helped someone. Even if it didn't show up in the comment section or in my inbox (but it did), I was hoping that it would help someone who was new.

    I wish I could tell you that you could collect 2%/week for the whole year! But odds are, the stock will pullback, either on its own or because of macro reasons, and you'll be assigned. Now, you've already stated you'd be fine with assignment, but this will eat into your profits from the 2%. It's also unlikely that you'd be able to continue to collect 2%/week annually. You'd beat the pants off the best fund managers in the world if that were the case.

    I like to sell puts or put spreads when volatility is high or the premiums are more. For Ford, I just prefer the call options. However, I do like weekly calls. Selling weeklies can usually work better than buying (because of the decay), and I typically only use weeklies for a few names (SPY, QQQ, AAPL) on a net debit basis.

    My thoughts are this: Ford is overbought, although I do like the stock tremendously. Premarket, we've got it to 13.20 -- under performing the SPY. That's usually a bad sign. Sales numbers come out the 3rd, which I think will be great #'s. This will probably push the stock even higher. We could see 13.50 by the end of the week, though I don't think we will.

    Selling puts this week might work, maybe next too. But eventually this stock is coming back to Earth, or at least settling down. If you're cash-secured and okay with owning the stock, then I guess you're okay. I just prefer to buy calls and roll 'em up.

    When they're a few months out, say Feb or Mar, then you can suffer through a pullback to the 50-day without worrying about the decay on your position, knowing in 2-4 weeks, the stock will be in rally mode. On the pops you can unload your calls, and by the next strike up. Wait through a draw-down, sell on the next pop! Sometimes you just gotta keep it simple!
    Jan 2 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera Or Chipotle: Where Should An Investor Dine? [View article]
    Nice piece. You got my curiosity because I am looking at establishing a long-term position in PNRA. The only thing I'd say is, be careful with growth averages.

    When looking at CMG there was a year with 11% growth and a year with 66% growth. You're average is about 35%, but could be misleading (either yourself or others) that growth has consistently been in the range, when it has not. Even next year it's only projected at 21%.

    But great article, I appreciate the insight and the comparison. Watch out for Einhorn ;)


    Bret
    Dec 28 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Up Or Down? With Qualcomm, Who Cares? [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words. Enjoy the holidays and buy some phones ;) !

    Bret
    Dec 20 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: To Infinity And Beyond - Will Recent Upward Momentum Continue? [View article]
    Hey Sakelaris,

    Sorry for such a late response! But you're right, I don't think we'll ever see $300/share again. Despite all the trouble, NFLX does have a huge customer base. It was a bummer when they lost Showtime/Starz, some great shows were there.

    A while ago, in the summer I had a new apartment for a 3 months. Instead of cable I just used Netflix because I was working so much that I didn't have time to actually sit down and watch TV for hours on end. Netflix was nice because I had TV shows to choose from, movies, whatever. And was cheap.

    Thanks for the comment,

    Bret
    Dec 17 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: A Deeper Look At Its Dividend Ability [View article]
    Cmmodity,

    I'm not long and looking to get out. Actually, it's the opposite. I like Seadrill a lot and think its future prospects look promising. I am a recent long shareholder and plan on holding for an intermediate- to long-term.

    The dividend cut in 2008 had more to do with the whole economic meltdown than Seadrill's ability to continue payouts, in my opinion. While I do think the future dividend is safe right now, I think it's important for investors to realize that SDRL has cut its dividend before and are not historically consistent at paying it out like some other blue-chip stocks. For now, I am long and happy.
    Dec 7 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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