Seeking Alpha

Bret Kenwell

View as an RSS Feed
View Bret Kenwell's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Much Ado About Apple: Why The Pessimists Are Wrong [View article]
    Excellent point wdchil and I appreciate your kind words. I previously wrote an article about Apple that referenced the same survey as the one above by Goldman. Here is what I wrote, which might help with your comment:

    "The survey from Goldman Sachs also noted that analysts believe each iOS user is approximately valued at $1,053. The firm has projected that this will point to at least $295 billion in future profits. This figure is not based off the "likely" or "highly likely" category. This figure ($295 billion) is derived from the 21% who would "not switch devices at any cost." This makes it very clear that Apple has an extremely strong loyalty base.

    Another survey, this time by UBS, would indicate that over 30% of Android users plan to make the iPhone their next purchase. Furthermore, they suggest that 89% of Apple's iPhone users plan to stick with the smartphone maker as their next purchase. Though Apple likely can't and won't thrive forever, retaining 90% of its users, while adding 30% of competitors' users, will only beef up the balance sheet."

    If that interested you, the rest of the article can be read here:

    Thanks for commenting!

    Jan 3, 2013. 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Ready For More Gains? Part II [View article]
    Hi Halito,

    I'm glad it helped someone. Even if it didn't show up in the comment section or in my inbox (but it did), I was hoping that it would help someone who was new.

    I wish I could tell you that you could collect 2%/week for the whole year! But odds are, the stock will pullback, either on its own or because of macro reasons, and you'll be assigned. Now, you've already stated you'd be fine with assignment, but this will eat into your profits from the 2%. It's also unlikely that you'd be able to continue to collect 2%/week annually. You'd beat the pants off the best fund managers in the world if that were the case.

    I like to sell puts or put spreads when volatility is high or the premiums are more. For Ford, I just prefer the call options. However, I do like weekly calls. Selling weeklies can usually work better than buying (because of the decay), and I typically only use weeklies for a few names (SPY, QQQ, AAPL) on a net debit basis.

    My thoughts are this: Ford is overbought, although I do like the stock tremendously. Premarket, we've got it to 13.20 -- under performing the SPY. That's usually a bad sign. Sales numbers come out the 3rd, which I think will be great #'s. This will probably push the stock even higher. We could see 13.50 by the end of the week, though I don't think we will.

    Selling puts this week might work, maybe next too. But eventually this stock is coming back to Earth, or at least settling down. If you're cash-secured and okay with owning the stock, then I guess you're okay. I just prefer to buy calls and roll 'em up.

    When they're a few months out, say Feb or Mar, then you can suffer through a pullback to the 50-day without worrying about the decay on your position, knowing in 2-4 weeks, the stock will be in rally mode. On the pops you can unload your calls, and by the next strike up. Wait through a draw-down, sell on the next pop! Sometimes you just gotta keep it simple!
    Jan 2, 2013. 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera Or Chipotle: Where Should An Investor Dine? [View article]
    Nice piece. You got my curiosity because I am looking at establishing a long-term position in PNRA. The only thing I'd say is, be careful with growth averages.

    When looking at CMG there was a year with 11% growth and a year with 66% growth. You're average is about 35%, but could be misleading (either yourself or others) that growth has consistently been in the range, when it has not. Even next year it's only projected at 21%.

    But great article, I appreciate the insight and the comparison. Watch out for Einhorn ;)

    Dec 28, 2012. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Up Or Down? With Qualcomm, Who Cares? [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words. Enjoy the holidays and buy some phones ;) !

    Dec 20, 2012. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: To Infinity And Beyond - Will Recent Upward Momentum Continue? [View article]
    Hey Sakelaris,

    Sorry for such a late response! But you're right, I don't think we'll ever see $300/share again. Despite all the trouble, NFLX does have a huge customer base. It was a bummer when they lost Showtime/Starz, some great shows were there.

    A while ago, in the summer I had a new apartment for a 3 months. Instead of cable I just used Netflix because I was working so much that I didn't have time to actually sit down and watch TV for hours on end. Netflix was nice because I had TV shows to choose from, movies, whatever. And was cheap.

    Thanks for the comment,

    Dec 17, 2012. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: A Deeper Look At Its Dividend Ability [View article]

    I'm not long and looking to get out. Actually, it's the opposite. I like Seadrill a lot and think its future prospects look promising. I am a recent long shareholder and plan on holding for an intermediate- to long-term.

    The dividend cut in 2008 had more to do with the whole economic meltdown than Seadrill's ability to continue payouts, in my opinion. While I do think the future dividend is safe right now, I think it's important for investors to realize that SDRL has cut its dividend before and are not historically consistent at paying it out like some other blue-chip stocks. For now, I am long and happy.
    Dec 7, 2012. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Looking To Change The World [View article]
    Personally, I think it has performed VERY well, outperforming the S&P by 10% over the last month actually...

    If you look at my other article, and maybe you did, the link above in a number of ways (in the article too) but it is basically my bullish stance on Ford. This piece focuses more on the minivan aspect of Ford breaking into that market nice, but I did do a piece specifically on my bullishness for Ford.

    Here is the link if you're interested on why I'm bullish and how I'm playing it:
    Nov 21, 2012. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Buy This Fat Yield Before It's Too Late [View article]
    I like their most recent sale to be honest. Not exactly a spin-off, but certainly fits in the "what not." The multi-billion dollar sales appears to have been "getting out on top" of their tender rigs.

    I don't know, some people are mixed on the concept, but I think it's good. They've had a tight grip on the area and with increase competition it's only going to hinder them. Plus it allows them to focus on big-money drilling contracts, such as deep-water.

    Regarding the spin-offs, it's more complicated. SDRL has their hands in a LOT of different places, making it hard for many to stick their finger into just one, do you have a specific one on your mind?

    But it's a great point & I think it would be pretty beneficial for those to know. I'll work on an article over the holidays, and when I put it out I'll let everyone here know. Sound good?

    Nov 21, 2012. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Looking To Change The World [View article]
    sorry for the late response calouche, but as no on really stated, the PE is skewed, meaning it's not really accurate. It will be, but is not right now. That's why it's important to look at multiple valuations :)

    Nov 21, 2012. 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford For $3.90? Buying This Automaker Before The Move [View article]

    An idiot? I'm sure if you've got shares as far back as 1970 you've quite a good cost basis, yes? Personally, I would be more optimistic on Ford than pessimistic.

    Ford certainly has a tough road ahead, especially with Europe accounting for so many losses. But with how well they're performing over here, I think it trades at a discount. personally I think there's upside left and if you were able to hold Ford while it spiraled down to $1, then I think you'll be safe for a while :)

    Nov 20, 2012. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Buy This Fat Yield Before It's Too Late [View article]
    Yes Goalkick, I agree. Although it depends on your reasoning behind buying SDRL (trade or investment), I think 38 is good, 36 obviously, much better.

    With the Cliff in play, it makes it hard to go out and really establish positions, so perhaps starter positions would be most appropriate while adding if a decline comes around.

    Thanks for commenting,

    Nov 20, 2012. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Buy This Fat Yield Before It's Too Late [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words freebra. Appreciate it!

    Nov 20, 2012. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $1,000? 1 Main Catalyst [View article]
    Always easy to come back and brag when you're right. Sure one would do the same when wrong 3 months later. MSFT isn't having the best ride either, FWIW:
    Nov 19, 2012. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Apple's Cash To Your Advantage [View article]
    "Anyone who thinks Apple's best days are still ahead are just stupid. I am not saying they are going to decline..."

    Soooo what are you saying then?
    Nov 16, 2012. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Alternative To Purchasing Shares Of Coca-Cola [View article]

    Thanks for the comment and appreciate the kind words, especially from a such a respectable options trader as yourself.


    Nov 15, 2012. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment