Brett Owens

Inflation vs. Deflation Battle Hits Key Inflection Point

granger: Totally agree - tomorrow will be interesting, given the divergence in the DOW/S&P. I'm also heavily short right here, looks like the markets may finally be rolling over.

Using the Wall Street Journal to Gauge Investor Sentiment

Uppai: Good arguments and to be honest I don't have anything overly intelligent to rebut with, at least with regards to 2 and 3. I'm of the view that the dollar is going to rally to new highs and that the stock market will take out it's former lows...but if I knew that was a certainty, I'd leverage up and be retired in 12 months :)

Re: #1 - Yes I'd like to develop this into a little bit more of a methodology. This weekend's article was a maiden voyage into this type of analysis. Biased sample set? Of course. But hopefully entertaining at the least.

Using the Wall Street Journal to Gauge Investor Sentiment

Like clockwork, the 1st comment is always from a gold bug. Of course gold will never have a down week according to them, and anyone not holding a basement full of bullion will perish in the fires of financial hell that are about to engulf us!

Also based on kind commenter feedback, we are now accepting donations from readers - so that I can save up for a WSJ subscription - please donate generously as we pass the collection plate around :)

Why the Dollar Likely Bottomed Last Week

Well said Asbytec!

Good new video over on Yahoo Tech Ticker - Bob Prechter shares his deflationary depression hypothesis for the mainstream: finance.yahoo.com/tech...-"Deflationary-Depress...

Why the Dollar Likely Bottomed Last Week

Thanks Jasper, Asbytec - it took me awhile to grasp the Fed's lack of money printing ability, which is a pretty compelling piece of evidence when you think about it.

I read recently that credit was $32 trillion (or thereabouts) earlier this decade, which then ballooned to $52 trillion...which means if we head back to earlier levels, they need to "print" $20 trillion (!) to keep things afloat at the same level.

BBQs, Beer and Contrarian Investment Indicators

Gtarras: Haha that's great...I had one guy get up and leave after I started mapping out the 80-year cycles for him...must have been too much to take in!

Old Trader: Nice data points, thanks for chipping in...wow corp approval req'd over $500!

Stocks for the Long Run? Stop Smoking Green Shoots

Washburn: Great point, you're right...no more downside for this guy, why not push another stack of chips out and bet on a rally.

Stocks for the Long Run? Stop Smoking Green Shoots

basehitz, Old Trader: Well said, I agree completely...return of capital completely overlooked by these guys.

Hyperinflation Trade Looking Crowded

Remind me never to cross you precious metal traders...you guys are nuts!

I love it that merely suggesting the possibility of an outcome other than hyperinflation gets the troops to circle the wagons and crucify the deflationary voice! Uncle!

FYI...I don't condone money printing, and I do believe that inflation is the creation of money...meaning we already have inflation. I am suggesting the possibility that it might not matter that the Fed is printing money...if they are indeed "pushing on a string".

I don't have the answers, but I'm anxious to see how this unfolds...hopefully without losing my "investment shirt" in the process!

Hyperinflation Trade Looking Crowded

CLH: Thanks, very interesting - so is it fair to say you believe that larger, sweeping societal trends (demographics, etc) are the true drivers of inflation and deflation?

I always thought demographics are something that were really overlooked during Japan's past couple of lost decades - getting older as a nation is extremely deflationary, that's one heck of a headwind no matter how much money is being printed.

One other quote - and I can't recall who said it offhand, so my apologies - that no nation with a bond market has ever experienced hyperinflation. I haven't done the research but offhand thought it was potentially very insightful.

'The Fourth Turning': Why This Crisis Was Inevitable

jfish: If survival against terrible odds is a sign of progress, then wouldn't the early cavemen be the stars of the show?

'The Fourth Turning': Why This Crisis Was Inevitable

@Kronos455: I have not personally heard Strauss/Howe mention Kondratiev waves.

I have heard them both mentioned in the same sentence...I believe on the Financial Sense Newshour (excellent podcast for those not familiar).

'The Fourth Turning': Why This Crisis Was Inevitable

Allan, believe it or not, still married after almost 2 years...you could have made some money by going "long" that trade, haha.

wpdragon: Thank you, and ah yeah...maybe you can root for a "short" Crisis, like the Civil War period (they had that one as only 7-8 years in length if my memory serves correct).

'The Fourth Turning': Why This Crisis Was Inevitable

wpdragon: I should clarify - had Kudlow on as we got ready to go out to dinner :)

Jason: Are you a fan of nanotech as well? Curious, as I know many believe nanotech will have similar revolutionary effects like the ones your mentioning.

Not Your Grandpa's Deflation

@worriedwart - I mean if you have large amounts of savings that are denominated in US dollars, you may want to consider diversifying with other currencies. For example, Everbank offers savings and CD accounts denominated in foreign currencies...a nice hedge in case the dollar tanks.