Brett Owens

Contrarian, dividend investing, dividend growth investing, etf investing
Brett Owens
Contrarian, dividend investing, dividend growth investing, ETF investing
Contributor since: 2008
Company: The Contrarian Income Report
Thanks and I did and I love OHI. An even better yield than VTR and they should be able to keep increasing that dividend as they've done over the past decade, in my opinion.
Yeah that's exactly stagnant. The dividend growth is nice but it's been coming from a fixed level of earnings. Eventually Ronald & Co will have to figure out how to grow profits again. It's tough to see that happening given that MCD is on the wrong side of every food trend in America.
Thanks Skip. FWIW I think oil has more downside in the short term before it bounces higher eventually:
http://bit.ly/1PPVXRg
And for more details on my newsletter, my presumed bias, and the actual dividend stocks I am recommending right now, you can visit: http://bit.ly/1i2enAH
:)
Hi Keith, I got mine from YCharts. And since I wrote the article I see that YCharts has now bumped that up to 212%.
And looking TTM on Google Finance, they're showing 235%:
http://bit.ly/1OMZmkN
Now it's the two of the last four quarters that are dragging it down (with the negative earnings). I don't know offhand if those were exceptions or not. And now that you've got me thinking let's take a look at free cash flow.
TTM FCF is 1.12B. Div paid was over 300M per quarter, so call it 1.2B TTM. Which means we're cash flow negative on dividends alone over the past 12 months if I'm doing the quick math correctly here.
Here's a more detailed analysis of KMB: http://onforb.es/1XoXXCu
I love OHI like many SA folks do. It pays 6% and it's doubled its dividend over the last decade. I don't see any reason why it won't be able to do so again, given the demographics working in its favor and its still very small market share.
Check it out if you haven't already. Many good articles on SA that are worth reading on it.
Hi Scott, no dumb people... only dumb trades :)
No in all seriousness it makes sense to hold and collect the dividend. I'm just not sure I'd short these shares either as MCD is probably more of a "grind sideways" stock until further notice. Just my $0.02.
I like the redeploy to SBUX from MCD. You traded the fast restaurant of yesterday for the fast restaurant of today and tomorrow!
On WMT we shall see - they have to get e-commerce figured out. They are trying for sure. But their development efforts have been a bit of a mess to date.
Is it 1970 today, or 2015?
I don't believe you get credit for the last 45 years of growth if you buy your shares today.
Yes, you're exactly right. I wouldn't short any of these issues. In general I only believe you should short companies that are going out of business - and none of these companies are any time soon.
But I also wouldn't buy any for their dividends (current or future) today because these yields will not grow over the next 10 years at the rates that investors have become accustomed to. And when that happens the stock prices could get punished (as happened with WMT).
I don't own them because all four stocks are overpriced with respect to their mediocre upcoming earnings growth.
Yup.
Not next week nor next year. But you're going to see nominal dividend growth for the foreseeable future.
Best of luck to you. I just wouldn't put any new money there today.
We're on 6 years and counting so I will gladly take the other side of your trade as well! Nobody ever said having a contrary outlook (http://bit.ly/1LJHRMg) would be popular. But it is profitable.
I'm not short these stocks. Nor long. I believe all 4 are "stay aways" today. They're overpriced thanks to their dividend aristocrat status and destined for mediocre returns due to lackluster earnings growth for years to come.
Sure - it's just not a good buy today if you don't yet own it.
Best of luck to you. The dividend streams will keep plugging along after earnings plateau, so you'll have some extra years to collect them. But I am concerned you won't be collecting what you think you will 10-20 years from now.
Oil was also at a near-term high when I recommended shorting it above $100:
http://seekingalpha.co...
It went a bit higher before crashing.
The backlash from these comments are similar to the one I received on my original oil article. Classic contrarian indicator, perhaps?
You know I just haven't looked into their business fundamentals that closely yet to be honest. But on the surface looks promising and cheap like these 3, with a P/E of 11, 4.8% dividend yield, and 2x div raises per year.
Not sure what skeletons may lurk, such as the potential SA exposure that @dunnhaupt alludes to.
These banks should actually generate better profits when interest rates rise a bit in Canada. Until then, their current dividends and 2x/year increases are well supported by current earnings and, in the case of RY and TD, modest organic growth.
I believe their ADRs (which are the shares that trade on the NYSE) are subject to the 15% foreign tax withholding for Canadian stocks: http://bit.ly/1CmtOqL
And where, exactly, was the present glut recycled from?
This is the sort of mistake that can discredit a commenter!
To each his own - GWRE is up 6% since this article ran, and up a percent or two since your comment posted.
Because I have not seen GWRE lose a deal to EBIX.
Suryan,
Yes I have been following GWRE's insider selling. I think this will continue to provide us with a volatile ride for the next 12 months or so, which is fine with me, as it may give us better prices to buy at.
Re: the actual selling, the founders had their liquidity tied up for a decade in paper GWRE stock, which has since doubled since IPO, so I don't fault them for selling, it's the prudent personal thing for them to do.
Brett
The more $$$ vendors pay Gartner and Forrester, the better their placements will be in their ratings and "magic quadrants".
ACN's consulting expertise aside - despite my jab it's actually not relevant here - the fact is that their product suite for insurance is not on the same level as Guidewire today.
The products are not integrated though, and it's my understanding that ACN's current Claim Component product is far inferior to Guidewire's - which is huge because this is often where the initial sale is made in this space.
Duck Creek is a good product for policy and billing, but they do not yet have a claims management piece, which is a huge product gap for ACN.
Based on the fact that they are not an enterprise software company, and my experience working with their implementation teams in a previous career as an enterprise software consultant.
Great find, thanks for the heads up!