Brian A. Davis

Commercial Mortgages and Mortgage Resets to Trigger Next U.S. Downleg

Jeff,
Good article. I am curious, like you I have pegged CRE as economic KRYPTONITE. Aside from local "space available" signs at malls, I have even noted that amusement parks and tourist cities are well off even last year's numbers.

However, in your humble opinion is there anything that would keep a CRE Doomsday scenario from playing out? Can the administration create programs for CRE as it did for RESIDENTIAL? Is there a paradigm shift that we are missing where the investment community is willing to accept this as part of the new financial landscape?

Thanks,

Economic Ramifications of Skyrocketing Long-Term Unemployment

We had better get these people back to work... someone has to repay the TARP funds...

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

The fact is with the changes in FASB rules, banks were once again left off the radar screen...to continue to bury and elude the truth of toxic assets.

That being said, rally by decree as opposed to rally on fundamentals is unsustainable.

An Open Letter to the Western Banking Establishment

Please feel free to distribute that letter to American papers as well. I think in my heart of hearts that we had cornered the greed market in the early 1990s. I will sponsor you for U.S. citizenship. Would you like to come over the pond and address Wall Street first, and Congress second?
Your American Cousin,
BD

Neither Easing, Printing, Nor Borrowing Will Work

see comments on Shay's Rebellion on usmegatrends.blogspot....

Neither Easing, Printing, Nor Borrowing Will Work

Bravo!!!
If easy money and shoddy credit got us in to this mess, the creation of more credit does not make sense. Put simply, our current state of economic affairs was not created overnight... and it will not just "go away" overnight!!! The sooner all these "big wheels" figure that out, the better opportunity we have to "really " fix the economy... and the true source which was the over-extension of credit...

Could it be that stock prices are being kept artificially high as a result of increased Fed actions...and the stock market is the only place to hedge against massive inflation?

There's Unemployment ... And Then There's Unemployment

I believe your article confirms what many of us "amateurs" have been suspicious of for a while. There is a massive amount of manipulation taking place. This market cannot stay propped up forever!!!

GMAC's Bad Medicine: Rates Were Never the Problem

Dear Readers,

I only buy American cars. Currently, a Ford and GM product sit in my driveway.

It is clear that management in in American cars in general, and GM in particular have made a series of pacts with the devil. As a result, any bailout will fail to address the real problems that persist with American car manufacturers. While this bailout may temporarily ease problems at the Big Three, it does not address the fundamental problems that have caused some of these problems to begin with.

usmegatrends.blogspot....

Respectfully,
Brian A. Davis

The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention

More than likely an accurate assessment. However, I believe this charade will continue as long as:
1. The U.S. government appears to support all government and quasi-government institutions...FDIC etc. (Pledged by the Full Faith of the U.S. Govt.)

2. Foreign Bond holders are happy receiving returns that for all intensive purposes are worth less the money invested.

3. G8 continues to pump the dollar...

But I would tend to agree with your long-term assessment

Financial Crisis: Our Founding Fathers' America

Gentlemen,

Thank you for your thoughts and comments.
Please feel free to visit usmegatrends.blogspot.....
Steve Benard, if you are reading this I am interested in emailing you but your website does not list any contact info.
Respectfully,
Brian A. Davis

P.S. Sorry about the spelling error.
BD

Lax Underwriting , Foreclosures, and Credit Crunch Stimulate Misery Industries

Jimmy,

Thanks for your work in the real estate market, specifically for those who could well be the most under-represented in NY. I'm curious though if you note a market increase in financial woes for the corporations of residential real estate as well. I am convinced that commercial real estate is only starting to show its cracks.

Secondly, in several of my articles I have cited examples where lenders are "refusing" to foreclose on properties here in the Midwest, is that the case in NYC as well? Evidently, NOBODY wants additional losses on their books. Are there laws which which force a lender to reposes a property?

Last, I'm glad you are bringing the likes of Kiyosaki and Sheets to task. I believe both have both have gone into hiding since this mortgage meltdown has taken place. In one anecdote, a Sheets follower was single-handedly responsible for destroying Cleveland's Polish neighborhood when his 56 property dynasty collapsed.

Respectfully,
Brian A. Davis

P.S. jjason,
Deficit spending in general can be blamed when it comes to government. Both Republicans and Democrats have enough blame to go around. I am a social conservative, and really wish there was a viable third party candidate... Call me a swing vote at this juncture... Let's go back to a day when individual rights and responsibilities are preached, and everyone recognizes that we are all held by a social contract. One thing is certain, people (including myself) have lost faith in the current regime!

'Panics Do Not Destroy Capital'

Dear Readers,

Panics to not destroy capital. Panics simply put a lender on notice as to how many bad loans they have already made. For instance, in California when thousands and thousands of (bad) loans were made to high risk borrowers, that was the point where capital was lost. Now that the financial market is approaching the "Panic" stage (and things will get worse before they get better) lending institutions are simply realizing now how much capital that has been put into "unproductive works."

While some readers will contend that it is a good business to see their fellow American in a debt ridden situation, and finally relying on credit cards for necessities, it is a perilous position for the companies and borrowers who are involved in this practice.

Finally, I firmly believe credit card issuers (and any other loan originators for that matter) and their clients have a business relationship. However, should the clients fall upon hard times (see the state of the U.S. Economy) credit card underwriters are in an extremely unenviable position.

Respectfully,
Brian A. Davis

Capital One: A Different Short Case

Dear NC Trader,

Every knows that COF is set-up for the big fall. The amount of bad debt in the areas of credit cards and auto loans has received some attention.

That being said, you make some excellent points about relationship managers and the inflated numbers from the Hiberia Bank portfolio. The later sets up another perfect storm scenario for this befuddled institution.

Last, I think your third COF article may well be served by addressing the consumer confidence and the HORRIFIC unemployment numbers... and how they will drive COF's stock price down to Davey Jone's Locker.

P.S. You may consider BAC's heavy exposure to consumer credit lines as well.

Winners and Losers from the Mortgage Mess

For many consumers, the credit card is the last line of defense before the street. And there is plenty of anecdotal and hard evidence. This situation can also be a catch 22 for credit cards. This article appeared to over-look a few other issues.

Assuming that is the case, it seems the expectations of a boom or bust for credit card companies is in the works. Remember, credit card debt is not secured. Should a party fail to pay, go bankrupt, lose their house, etc. the credit card company will be left holding the bag.

Depending on inflation, it should also be noted that if... if credit card and other revolving debt is serviced, there is also a risk of being repaid in inflated dollars.

Last, Congress plans on addressing credit card issuers and other forms of loan sharking in the fall. At the end of the day, when re-election is near, it is easy to vilify credit card companies.

P.S. MBNA was sold for several reasons including the death of Al Learner President and Founder of the company... It would also appear that MBNA was sold when the getting was good... consider the performance of financials since MBNA was sold... at its premium price. Last, MBNA was not selective as to who was issued a card... BAC has not fostered the growth of that company, and does not understand the family values that Al Learner used to create the empire. The MBNA division of BAC is a mere shadow of what used to be. At the end of the day, more will shake out of credit card companies. This could very well be the next financial shoe to drop on Wall Street.

Merrill, Lehman Knew the Score Before: Inexcusable

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