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Brian Bobbitt  

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  • China Removes Some Hot Money From Stock Market, Encourages Short Selling [View article]
    Also lets those with power buy lower. I am not impressed.
    Life as usual here at the Coffee Shop.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 18, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF announces monthly distribution of $0.1184 [View news story]
    I give 5 to 1 the DOW goes above 18000 again next week.

    What has changed?

    I just wish I had some cash to buy the dip this time.

    All in and the trend (up) is my friend.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 17, 2015. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Start Buying Canada [View article]
    I have a group of folks which meet every Saturday. We call it, 'The Lunch Bunch'. quite an array of folks attend. It is basically a large group that is called to the meeting by the self appointed head of the clan, a fellow who is as well read and in the know as anyone I know. He helps me stay on track. (with impolite corrections at the table, so you better know your facts)

    Quite some time ago, say around 40 years ago, (yes, we have been meeting for more than that long) I found a European stock which sounded lucrative and mentioned it to the 'bunch'.

    An old retired European banker (rest his soul) retorted: Stay home young man. There is enough trouble here. If you pick a stock with black ops, you can drive over there, attend meetings, sue easily and so on. As soon as you go off-shore, your recovery or input problems magnify.

    I'm passing many opportunities out there I know, but as he said, "There are plenty of good companies right here at home."

    And that's what I do.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 16, 2015. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures slip alongside European selloff [View news story]
    Charts are trends, trends are friends, watch the DJIA chart on all basis'. Go over the charts at least once a day, and you will get the feel of which direction the trend is.

    All I can see is an uptrend with minor negative inflections but nothing pointing to a sell-off where one should not be in the market.

    Looking at a one year chart of the DJIA, I see a bumpy uptrend but staying long.

    Short term trends are fine but can be deceiving, I don't like making decisions on charts just sprouting.

    Five year chart is also up and perhaps a bit too long to look at, but for one who lives off returns of investing (retired) the five year chart says go on vacation.


    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 16, 2015. 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some traders take profits in oil [View news story]
    Right now, WTI is (as I write) 58.85. Not real impressive unless you like watching dead cats bounce.

    From $48 to $58 methinks will not enthrall most oil producers compared to what they have been used to.

    With all the rhetoric regarding bulls and bears in the oil market, I still say we have not seen the bottom.

    I suspect we are durned near it, and certainly would not short it with a futures contract, but would consider one of the inverse ETF's as I recently stated in my article re: the look at oil.

    If you aren't short this market, I think now would NOT be the greatest to go long for short term profits. Long term, I suspect, unless something happens in the battery industry, oil will come screaming back.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 14, 2015. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude bounces following drubbing yesterday [View news story]
    I like both parts of your comment. It is true for sure that they will not 'dump' all of it in one day, but the market ALWAYS overreacts, and that may be just enough to lower pump prices for my summer jaunt.

    And for your question, of, ~ "why not $2 now?". I feel it is simply, the prices are being held up until one of them breaks it. Some catalyst will open up and down they will come for a short time, just enough for me to put on about 7000 miles on my truck.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 12, 2015. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I See $2 A Gallon Gasoline This Summer [View article]
    YUP! For sure you have brought up a great gapers task. I will be reporting as best I can re: prices over the Eastern USA if my plan gels to get to goin' as soon as taxes and a few other chores are done.

    I think my plate is ready for the open road. I do more driving off the interstates, (which I dislike greatly) so I think I will get a good look.

    I Plan to go from Florida to Texas, to Chicago to Rochester, NY, and down through the Carolinas. So, there is no real plan, but stay in touch.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 11, 2015. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I See $2 A Gallon Gasoline This Summer [View article]
    You may be right, so may I. I give us both permission to be right. However, I must stick to my prediction of lower prices over the vacation season.

    Bet you a tank of gas I'm right? Ha ha.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 11, 2015. 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I See $2 A Gallon Gasoline This Summer [View article]
    Good question: and the answer is: The difference between summer- and winter-blend gasoline involves the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of the fuel. RVP is a measure of how easily the fuel evaporates at a given temperature.

    Changing seasons means changing your entire lifestyle. From your clothing to your tires, each year it’s important to make sure you—and the things you own—are ready for the warm and cold weather.

    But just because you’ve got new wheels and a new wardrobe doesn’t mean every change is visible to the naked eye. One of the more overlooked summer-to-winter changes in vehicles is the different gas blends going into your tank: summer blend gasoline vs. winter blend gasoline.

    The difference lies in the ability of the gasoline to evaporate under certain temperatures. It is all based around the pressure of the gasoline, called the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP). The higher the RVP, the more pressurized, and thus volatile, the gasoline. The lower the RVP, the more pure the gasoline, meaning it will take extra heat and energy to cause gas to evaporate.

    In the summer, when temperatures are hotter and liquids evaporate easier, gasoline is made with a lower RVP in order to prevent the gas from evaporating, becoming useless for your vehicle. Not only is evaporated gas not useful for your car, it pollutes the air and adds to city smog. However, there is a price to pay for this gasoline—literally. Summer blend gasoline is more difficult to produce than winter blend gasoline, which is why gas prices tend to rise along with the temperatures.

    But in the winter, when evaporation is less of a concern, gasoline is made with a higher Reid Vapor Pressure. This means additives such as butane can be added to the gas, making it a little bit cheaper in the winter; but, since butane burns more quickly, your gas mileage will take a bit of a hit.

    If you’ve ever wondered why both your gas mileage and the price you pay at the pump seems to fluctuate more than you’d like between seasons, it’s important to understand that the gasoline you’re putting into your car is different in July than it is in December.

    Additionally: I was asked, "Is there a price difference?" & "Is there a difference in mileage?"

    A different chemical cocktail is blended into our gasoline in the hot summer months to help reduce air pollution. Winter-grade gasoline is allowed to be more volatile, or have a greater tendency to evaporate, because the lower prevailing temperature helps control volatility.

    Gas stations must be selling exclusively summer-blend gasoline, with its lower volatility limit, by June 1 of each year, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

    The changeover between blends at refineries helps account for some of the increase in gas prices as summer approaches (and again in the fall) as refineries scale back production to adjust equipment for the alternate fuel formulations.

    Or so the industry experts say. Some of our more cynical warriors suspect that that's merely an excuse for jacking up prices, or at least, that the industry takes advantage, charging more than the necessary adjustments really cost. As in every other business, I'm sure everyone in the oil game is stepping on the gas to maximize profits. But my intake valves can't accept the implication that Big Oil thoroughly controls pricing. If that were the case, the price at the pump would never take a downhill turn.

    Apart from the pricing issue, winter-grade gasoline does yield slightly less energy than the summer blend, but only by about 1.7 percent on average, according to the EPA. Ethanol's impact is far greater, dropping energy content — and fuel mileage — by more like 30 percent. Still, winter-blend gas imposes its minimal loss on every gallon your engine burns, whereas E10 is a blend of 90 percent gasoline and only 10 percent ethanol, which mitigates ethanol's mileage-lowering quality.

    Another reason it's difficult to determine the degree to which seasonal gas formulations affect mileage is that other factors come to play, and with greater impact. An ice-cold engine needs a "richer" gas-air mixture to fire up and idle, and until the engine reaches operating temperature, you're burning more gas compared with startups in the lazy, hazy days of summer. Factors other than winter-blend gas can cut far deeper into mileage — by 20 percent or more — according to the EPA. These include excessive idling (no need to "warm up the engine" in cars made in the last decade or so) and poor road conditions, as well as non-seasonal issues such as lead-foot acceleration, traffic congestion, engine efficiency (need a tune-up?), tire pressure, head winds and hills.

    At the end of the road, it's unlikely that winter-blend gas by itself is crimping your mileage in a significant way. You might be able to boost your cold-weather mileage by addressing some of the other matters, or maybe you should try yet another mechanic. Those you've talked to about the problem don't seem up to speed with their fuel facts.

    Happy Motoring!
    Capt. BrianThe Lost Navigator
    Apr 11, 2015. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I See $2 A Gallon Gasoline This Summer [View article]
    I'm afraid you may be right. In the end, I feel Obama care will be a bust, and lots of money will have been wasted. Oh well, I thank my lucky stars I am taken care of by the VA for my time in the USMC.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 11, 2015. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I See $2 A Gallon Gasoline This Summer [View article]
    You may be correct in loading up on your 'companies of size'. That us usually a great idea in any times good or bad.

    I am referring to the price of oil and the ETF's mentioned are for shorting that price for a short term.

    I am holding three oil companies of 'size' and good reports if you would care to check my stock talks. FANG, FSLR & SLCA.

    In fact, I have been holding these for some time now, maybe more than six months. Certainly before and thru the great drop in oil prices. I also have been writing covered calls, and have made much more than I had lost in the short term drop in these three companies, which have since recovered as the price of oil has not reciprocated percentage-wise.

    I still think oil has at least one more significant leg down, before it attempts climbing enough to make money on the long side of the price of oil.


    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 9, 2015. 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I See $2 A Gallon Gasoline This Summer [View article]
    Long for the duration, or for the moment or so?
    Capt. Brian
    Apr 9, 2015. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking A High Yield Energy Portfolio Through Time [View article]
    I truly feel this article should have been written after summer this year. I feel oil prices could drop pretty good soon, and THEN read and react to this article.

    With the nuclear deal with Iran pending, 30 million barrels could hit the market and Iran needs money.

    Also there are many factors where one should even perhaps short oil currently.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 9, 2015. 12:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude bounces following drubbing yesterday [View news story]
    I just put in an article for publication suggesting you short oil. It has not been published yet, still waiting, but I had some speculative money, I would be in the Short oil ETF's.

    I say we will see $2 gasoline this summer or sooner.

    If the nuclear deal is approved, and sanctions lifted, and I bet that will happen, then 30 million barrels will be available instantly.

    Just my ramblings.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 9, 2015. 11:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss National Bank Delivers A Spirited Defense Of Manipulating The Swiss Franc [View article]
    I feel any manipulation is nonsense and needs to be dealt with from without. Meaning, folks who deal in a manipulated currency or other item without cause should stop and go elsewhere to fill needs.

    Of course, if you are a victim of manipulation, and you must trade in that currency or item, then you are trapped by TPTB.

    IMHO, I say ANY artificial manipulation of anything should be looked upon by the worlds tradesmen as illegal and criminal.

    Any entity which manipulates should be ostracized and dealt with accordingly.

    However, since the entire world is doing thing which benefit themselves, and NOT whom they deal with, the entire globe is becoming a 'Hogan's Alley'.

    I for one am glad I'm retired, and only have to worry about keeping in touch, coins and traveling.

    Best of luck to all of you as TPTB figure out the next black swan to swat you with.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment