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Brian Bobbitt

 
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  • Why This Is The Most Hated Bull Market Of All Time - Understanding The Folly Of Financial Engineering [View article]
    I don't hate a bull market. I am totally at fault for not believing in it. My biggest rule of investing has saved me from my own 'smarty pants'.

    I was and am convinced that this market is a cartoon running on hot air from Washington. Not real demand which usually fuels a boom time.

    So, not being stupid, even though I feel a storm is coming, (have had that feeling for years now, check my posts on stocks, and many comments along the way regarding these markets and PMs).

    What has saved me is my main rule of investing, "follow a trend until it stops".

    Back in 2007 I correctly called the bear market, and sold everything I could. Got out and got laughed at. All during the mortgage mess and so on and so forth which ensued for 2 years, I was able to snap my suspenders at the coffee shop day after day. Boy was I the smart one.

    But like a rooster who could not see the sunrise, I kept crowing for years later until May of last year, where I still could not see the sunshine, but finally felt the heat of daytime and FINALLY woke up and saw the sun (markets) rising and jumped aboard.

    This is when I gave my stash to my broker and he has done well ever since. I still cling to my feeling we are on the edge of doom and gloom, and our NGM's are selling us down the river, but until I see water in the bilge, I'm going with the trend of a bull market.

    The Euro-zone is finding a way when I thought, by now, there would be no more E$. Well, its there and alive and kicking. Germany is now supporting Spain by lending to them, instead of chastising them.

    Yup, I hate this market more than I can tell, because all the signs say to watch out, shorten sail, head for harbor and beware.

    But soldier winds are at my back, and until the set of the sails change, I'm "all in".

    Coins, hedges and now even covered call writing. I pulled out the stops a year ago may, and I am making 11% on conservative, over 16% on not so conservative, and over 30% on coins with precious metals (PM's) going down.

    So there, I am having a good time and I hate it.
    Geez I hate being wrong all the time.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jul 24 03:17 PM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold ETF outflows continue, but pace slows [View news story]
    Methinks this paper world of ours is getting totally out of hand. Gold is not in the main thinking of the average man, but if you think it isn't a big deal, they why are people around the world dying for it. Vying for it, trading for it and so on and so forth?
    Gold is wanted no matter what the naysayers come up with on a daily basis.
    Gold reflects the world in general from a monetary and worry situation. It has always been and will always be in the minds of those in charge because they know it is the real thing babe.
    They don't want you to think so, but believe you me, it is where it is at. I can tell you for SURE, it is ONLY the PM's that have kept my net worth above where it was the day I retired, and mainly due to trading coins, and in and out of bullion.
    I am making over 30% on numismatics and bullion (and paying taxes on the gains too). My main stash is only making 11+% and another area making 16%+.
    You do it your way. I'm sticking with what is doing best.
    Stay away from the paper precious metals, ( the ETF's ) and get the real stuff.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator.

    Four day coin show coming up. I have been stocking up and have wares to sell. Let's see what happens.

    Gold is good. (Silver too)
    Jul 1 05:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYSE Margin Debt Rises In May For First Time In 3 Months: Risk Rank At No. 21 [View article]
    I suppose the more folks are feeling good about things, the more risk they will take. This is perhaps a great indicator that people are taking more risk. Usually, the risk is lowest in hard times and highest in good. If risk is increasing, then I suppose the business climate is getting better.
    I for one, have just a coupla weeks ago, raised my risk level a tad to include writing covered calls on a limited basis.
    Results should begin coming in as options written expire, and new ones are sold.
    I would expect some greater returns than I have been experiencing over the last year. It will be very easy to tell.
    I also am getting storm warnings from intelligent quarters, so perhaps in a year or so, another recession/correction could pass our way.
    For the time being, I am not seeing any real danger, save for the normal minefields of investing.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    PS, You might check my stock talks on occaision, to see what I am doing specifically.
    Jul 1 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Why Shouldn't It Drop Further? [View article]
    The whole thing is timing. Hee hoo hah
    Jun 21 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When The S&P 500 Breaks A Record, Reduce Your ETF Portfolio Risk [View article]
    Is this a horse race or a stock market? Is this a betting parlor or a result of economics?
    I think using comparisons, stories and non-linked worlds have no place in deciding when and if a market will turn around.
    This bull market will turn around when it gets damn good and ready and not one stock trade before. Not one news letter writer, pundit, guru and so on have not the least clue for that time and event.
    Go with the flow. A trend will end when ends. One of the sure ways to lose in a market of any kind is to get out without good reason and having a market move in a direction 'too long' is NOT the reason to exit.
    You have, at your disposal many tools to protect you from that eventual market drop. USE THEM. Stops, Trailing stops averages and so on. But for you to exit a running investment is folly. It is the way to be an eventual loser.

    YOU MUST LET YOUR GOOD INVESTMENTS RUN. LET THEM FINISH.

    This may or not be the end of the bull run. But by continuing to say it does not make it so.

    Hang in there. Sell some calls (that can give you about a 5% cushion) but for gosh sakes, don't slaughter the pig till its ready to be eaten.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jun 19 05:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of England's Quarterly Report: Are We Quietly Seeing Central Banks Repatriate Their Gold? [View article]
    Regarding the dropping of inventory and its making its way back home, that is precisely what happened but I believe it is because the owners of the gold put it in that bank for safety as there was not a good place at home.
    Now things are "All quiet on the western front" and they can hold the gold themselves, ending storage costs.

    The other half of this article suggests ways to store your goods.
    Just get your hands on it, and put in your bank. At the first sight of financial problems, go to you box and bring it home.

    Have a storage place already in mind. Cover your tracks in front of you. I pay $300 a year for two bins at my bank, and it is there ONLY to cover theft of my buying power. I am not afraid of social meltdown, financial end of the world scenarios. Just the erosion of my purchasing power and I am hedged.

    I am not a doom and gloomer, just a realist and don't like what I see.

    The governments will have to re-align currency values world wide, and when they do, you will be happy to see some glitter in your 'folio.

    For me, I quit worrying long ago and got diversified. Older I get, the more I sell off real estate. One more condo to go, and I'm liquid with coins and money invested.
    Not a bad feeling.

    BTW, FYI, nearly all of my 'bullion' currently is in numismatic form, a small amount of gold and silver eagles. I intend to continue to take in numismatics by trading up, lowering my number of coins but raising the average value of each. At a time in the future, and perhaps I should be doing it now, trade all the numismatics in for gold and silver eagles. THAT should cap out my investment life.
    With my mutual funds doing great, the bull trend for stock firmly intact, I will increase my risk a tad by adding writing covered calls. Begin watching my stock talks for what I am doing. First installment is already written and took a position yesterday.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator

    PS, gonna try ur newsy letter.
    Jun 19 09:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets quiet after FOMC; await Yellen [View news story]
    The noise is housewives, business owners, and retired folks screaming for help against rising prices as the index snores a tune designed to keep your eyes offa reality..

    I tell you, as I have been saying, the inflation monster is gettin' more and more hungry. Part of the noise is his stomach rumbling.

    Time to watch close your inflation hedges.

    I suggest in the strongest terms, whomever is in office, [any office] vote for the new guy, this way we get less experienced crooks.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jun 18 03:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon in the spotlight with impending Obama gay rights move [View news story]
    This has GOT to change. I remember the slogan, "Remember the Maine" and "Remember the Alamo". All went to REMEMBERING American values. I say, "REMEMBER THE CONSTITUTION?" With a question mark. Because likely as it seems, no one seems to make the President adhere to it no how, no way after he was sworn to up hold it.

    Capt.Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jun 17 06:32 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Appears As Though Shares Of Bank Of America Will Be Taking A Hit On Monday [View article]
    Tuesday morning quarterback,, Hee hoo hah!

    Okay, down it went, ur right there, but the storm was short and BAC went ALL the way down to $15.20 from 15.43, and is now a trading day and a quarter later above that at a tad above where it was.

    Hmmm. 20 cent move, (40 if you picked the precise top and bottom) if you got some neat order executions. Or you just sold on the little move down.

    Not for me.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator.
    Jun 17 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro slipping [View news story]
    The euro is solving their problems. Certainly not the way I would have done it, probably making the situation worse. The leaders of the E$ have found ways to keep it 'afloat'. The currency was heading into the dumper, and now isn't.

    The value of the E$ was rising out of control, getting to the 1.40 level, and is now getting some relief. It seems when a currency is headed down, all think it is bad, and for a currency to be strong, boy ain't that cause for celebration.

    Well, both of those statements are true to a point.

    Simply put: The stronger a currency gets the more it is wanted, then if it gets too 'hot', its bad for the country using it as their products get too expensive in the needs of exporters, and inflation ensues in the country using said currency.

    So, that in a nutshell, IMHO, is why the controllers of the currency, stopped its rise and will continue to keep it in the zone of convertibility so that trade can continue normally, and not be truncated by inflation or deflation.

    Quite frankly, I'm amazed there is still a Euro-Dollar.

    Quite frankly, I'm amazed we don't have run-a-way inflation in America.

    So, I shall continue on my merry way and be happy the end of times has not hit yet.

    I will be happy when someone wakes me up, and says Monday has been cancelled.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jun 17 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Recent Recovery Of Silver Slow Down? [View article]
    Professional Silver Stealth Buying Underway In Futures And ETFs [View article]
    Standards, norms, history, charts and tea leaves. Should, could, might, used to and so on and so forth.

    My experience over the last 5 decades has shown me, no one, can predict the future no how, no way. Just ain't gonna to happen.

    Now I'm just an old fool back in from the sea, sun-baked, salt laden and sea weed in my socks. But I can still see, hear and think somewhat.

    My tea leaves show me, from all angles, signs, readings and so on, that the PM's (precious metals) have hit a staging area.

    What I mean by that is the prices have 'seeked' [<---- is that a word?] their proper level. this is where prices should be considering the real factors of new usable supply coming out of the ground and other sources from recycling, and draw-down (demand) from all areas of industry, investment and treasures (gifts and jewelry. I consider all demands for silver, and all sources combined and obviously the laws of supply and demand don't look at all the rhetoric, hopes and fears and needs of investors. Most people in the world just look at PM's as another 'thing' in the world like sky or grass or diamonds.

    Yes, the PM's can be a storehouse, a 'bank' as it were. Bottom line, it is just another item we trade. NO different that any commodity, currency and so on.

    Corn is different from wheat, wheat is different from cattle, and the PM's are different from Currencies. That is about the only difference as far as investors are concerned.

    So, like all the other investments, the PM's are simply another investment as we look to increase our net worth(s).

    So, where will the price go? My thinking is, up from here. But with the "New Economy" out there, and the way the world has evolved in financial thinking and ways to get more currency or wealth under one's control, the PM's have lost their luster and goes back to where it always was, a place to store wealth and have faith that the gold eagle, ruble, franc etc. is just a way to make you feel as though you have something 'solid', and so you do.

    The price, will, methinks IMHO, rise slowly and continue to mirror purchasing power in your currency, whatever that may be. In my case, the US$.

    So, with global mining costs pretty well agreed at near the current prices, and most mines operating normal, and continued supply coming from scrap sources, the draw-down is slight but in favor of a continued rise in prices of Au and Ag. I suppose Pt (Platinum) and Pd (Palladium) will continue in sync also. I found out that Pt and Pd have about the same properties, but it takes, in most applications twice the Pd to do what Pt does (industrially speaking) so that helps keep the prices where they are. Platinum is more desirable than Pd for jewelry, so the gap is forced to stay open. I suspect due to market forces and uses for Pd, the price will pretty well remain in the present difference of about 2 to 1.

    So, there you have my thinking. I still think [other than an individual issue of stock or a great new issue], the PM's will return the biggest percentage move for the year. So far, so good.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator

    P.S. I am making a bigger percentage on my numismatics than my equities. I have been accumulating high grade numismatics and intend to continue trading to increase the dollar value of my treasure chest. I also am taking profits, and buying more rare coins and also using lower grade 'stuff' and physical to make small profits and take those profits to go even higher and rarer. So far, so good and percentages are beating equities and PM prices. If I have an MS63, I want it in MS64 or better. See?
    Jun 17 10:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Professional Silver Stealth Buying Underway In Futures And ETFs [View article]
    Standards, norms, history, charts and tea leaves. Should, could, might, used to and so on and so forth.

    My experience over the last 5 decades has shown me, no one, can predict the future no how, no way. Just ain't gonna to happen.

    Now I'm just an old fool back in from the sea, sun-baked, salt laden and sea weed in my socks. But I can still see, hear and think somewhat.

    My tea leaves show me, from all angles, signs, readings and so on, that the PM's (precious metals) have hit a staging area.

    What I mean by that is the prices have 'seeked' [<---- is that a word?] their proper level. this is where prices should be considering the real factors of new usable supply coming out of the ground and other sources from recycling, and draw-down (demand) from all areas of industry, investment and treasures (gifts and jewelry. I consider all demands for silver, and all sources combined and obviously the laws of supply and demand don't look at all the rhetoric, hopes and fears and needs of investors. Most people in the world just look at PM's as another 'thing' in the world like sky or grass or diamonds.

    Yes, the PM's can be a storehouse, a 'bank' as it were. Bottom line, it is just another item we trade. NO different that any commodity, currency and so on.

    Corn is different from wheat, wheat is different from cattle, and the PM's are different from Currencies. That is about the only difference as far as investors are concerned.

    So, like all the other investments, the PM's are simply another investment as we look to increase our net worth(s).

    So, where will the price go? My thinking is, up from here. But with the "New Economy" out there, and the way the world has evolved in financial thinking and ways to get more currency or wealth under one's control, the PM's have lost their luster and goes back to where it always was, a place to store wealth and have faith that the gold eagle, ruble, franc etc. is just a way to make you feel as though you have something 'solid', and so you do.

    The price, will, methinks IMHO, rise slowly and continue to mirror purchasing power in your currency, whatever that may be. In my case, the US$.

    So, with global mining costs pretty well agreed at near the current prices, and most mines operating normal, and continued supply coming from scrap sources, the draw-down is slight but in favor of a continued rise in prices of Au and Ag. I suppose Pt (Platinum) and Pd (Palladium) will continue in sync also. I found out that Pt and Pd have about the same properties, but it takes, in most applications twice the Pd to do what Pt does (industrially speaking) so that helps keep the prices where they are. Platinum is more desirable than Pd for jewelry, so the gap is forced to stay open. I suspect due to market forces and uses for Pd, the price will pretty well remain in the present difference of about 2 to 1.

    So, there you have my thinking. I still think [other than an individual issue of stock or a great new issue], the PM's will return the biggest percentage move for the year. So far, so good.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator

    P.S. I am making a bigger percentage on my numismatics than my equities. I have been accumulating high grade numismatics and intend to continue trading to increase the dollar value of my treasure chest. I also am taking profits, and buying more rare coins and also using lower grade 'stuff' and physical to make small profits and take those profits to go even higher and rarer. So far, so good and percentages are beating equities and PM prices. If I have an MS63, I want it in MS64 or better. See?
    Jun 17 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Instagram gives Facebook a Chinese opening [View news story]
    Wanna bet Zuk & company open up China somehow? And most of the globe before they're done.

    My money is on: Y0U AIN'T SEEN NUTTIN' YET HUNNY!

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator.
    He double L, I would bet on them in a down market. AND the worse the market gets, the more I'd bet on them.
    Jun 12 02:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil companies not rattled by Iraq upheaval [View news story]
    When will the world's non-producing public wake up to the fact the globe is awash in oil, and the price is as manipulated as gold, (all PM's) and many other markets.

    If we put all the diamonds in vaults out for sale, we'd be buying them out of gumball machines.

    The ONLY reason I don't get upset about fuel prices at the pump is how much it costs to go get it. I don't have real figures on their costs per barrel of crude, then how much to refine.

    I know this, it takes so much money to refine crude, that most producers send it elsewhere (mostly to America) because they can't afford to refine it.

    I bet, if we didn't underwrite the technology and actual running of oil producers, they would go back to selling camel feed (in the middle east) and emeralds (in SA)

    Well, until there is a better way to do it, we are forced to fall in line.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jun 12 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Mobile Monetization Strategy Is Clear [View article]
    I like FB. I think they are taking appropriate risk. It is using money (profits) they may pay in taxes and dividends to expand. Every bit of social media they absorb, and any high ranking people they can attract is only more reason to buy and hold.

    Again, I like FB. If the comment regarding $40 a share turns out to be correct, then fine, I will add more and lower my average. I bought the IPO (my first ever) doing great, and greater is better than great.  I am not selling and recommending buy the trend up.

    Again, I say FB is a buy until it hits $500, then sell calls as it pauses on its way to $600.

    Will we see it in the Academy Awards, the Oscars and so on. LOL< well, not likely, but it is in mine.
    
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jun 12 12:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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