Is Annaly Capital (And mREITs) Right For Seniors - Part II [View article]
What you say has a lot of something, and it ain't all good stuff. Methinks you need to look around you and see what the real world is about. Mortgages will always be traded, and until a major change come, [and we will know in plenty of time], the NGM's will make plenty of mortgages available for our consumption.
Hang in there with REITs for now folks, Don't listen too much to this author.
I am concerned to say the least. This week, it looks like, is the final week of my business. It appears the deal is done, and names should be inked putting me in retirement before the end of the week. I just sent a letter to my financial advisors that I need help now as my income has stopped, and my savings must pay for any future folly I may invent, such as eating, paying electric bills etc.
With that said, I also believe that, in normal circumstances this article would be a real winner, putting up proper red flags telling the engineer the bridge is out on the stormy night, and to try to keep the whole thing from the coming chasm.
For now, I don't believe I am going to panic out of my nice dividend payers especially NLY. I will however, put a stop in fairly close and if the author is correct, [as he well may be], then I am out with a tolerable loss of equity, [but have to bake in the pie, the earned dividends, and as long as the entire enterprise is getting me over 10% analyzed, I stay in.
A year or so ago, I bought PSEC ( A BDC ), (My 'advisor' said not to buy) and when they cut their dividend, and the stock went down, I looked at it again with the eye of 'would I buy it again?', and I decided then, against all the gurus, and advisors or mine to keep it. Since then, with the 11+% dividend, and a little growth, I am now over 23% [analyzed] since purchase.
I also see the fiscal cliff approaching, new tax treatments, and a boon for the REIT industry. Maybe not so for the BDC's.
So, if not today, durned soon, I will be putting in real close stops, [in case the author is right], but holding in case I'm right, and getting advise from all my fellows.
Yup, perhaps a minefield approaching.
Drat, I thought retirement would be easier.
Capt. Brian The Lost Navigator
PS market just opened, one advisor said to sell PSEC, I said hold, it is up .07 as I type.
PSS Also there has been a lot of negative talk re: NLY, it is up also today, and I still hold it. Am I a genius, not by any means, just look at my results however. Keep your own counsel!
"They can't get rid of this rule fast enough," says a bank analyst of the FASB's progress toward eliminating the debt valuation adjustment (DVA) from bank earnings. The rule - which perversely adds to earnings as a bank's credit deteriorates (and subtracts from the bottom line as credit improves) - has been behind big whipsaws in reported numbers in recent quarters (Q3 will be no exception). "(It's) one of the more ridiculous concepts that's ever been invented in accounting," says Jamie Dimon. [View news story]
Just follows along with my prior comments of why I don't like banks. We really need to rethink the way we allow our bankers to do business, it is a sham.
Why The U.S. Is Europe: Central Bank Deficit Funding Thinly Veiled [View article]
Does anyone notice how the comments and the article are so involved, secretive, deep, and the method in which our financial system is floating along on a cardboard sea under a paper moon and probably would not take much to bring down the stage props making our system look so good. I surely am not sure if I want to go look backstage and see who and how the banking system is propped up to look so good. With their huge pillars in the ads and in front of the buildings, I wonder how much real folding countable cash money is sitting there ready to take care of business. I have to KNOW I have a certain stash in the back room, and a certain income to fund my way of life. I have to work for the income, and use some investing tools to help me get income. There are ways to use leverage that can enhance my income if chosen properly, but usually,using leverage comes home to bite the investor. Big and small, we have seen the cost of being leveraged, and the pain of de-leveraging. Which I may add, we are still trying to find a way to de-leverage. [actually, the leverage, or as some call it 'margin', has been the ruin of many a poor boy.
For me, my brain tires reading this kind of article, because it begins to confuse and leave me in the legal dust of the abilities of our bankers and politicians to steal our money, and eventually, we wind up eating our own arms to survive.
I don't know how the heckers they can keep this circus tent afloat, but it certainly does not give a retiring fellow much confidence.
So, I will continue to invest as defensively as possible, gleaning dividends and growth where I can, but for sure there is no more buy and hold. It is take a bite and hide with it before the hyenas take it away from me.
Banks, the very word gives me the purple wobblies.
The rescue of Spain's banks will cause the country's budget deficit to hit 7.4% this year, above its 6.3% target, the government said yesterday. Authorities reckon Spain could require €40B of its EU credit line after stress tests showed the sector needs €53.75B. Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 85.3% in 2012 - above a previous forecast of 80% - and 90.5% in 2013. [View news story]
To put this in layman's terms, ( a layman is us poor slobs who fund the nonsense of the banks and our leaders both here and abroad ) They are still spending more than they take in, and want those on the tax roles to pay for their folly.
All I can do, is hide behind some high paying REITs for the time being, hang there in the hot sector of PM's, and hope for the best.
I see a lot of global problems out there, both economically and politically speaking, so it is time to hunker down. Perhaps wait on the fall vacation, just put a few extra in the pocket, and see where this thing is going. [I am talking about the macro economics that really control our economy]
Perhaps now is a good time to get in cash, take profits, miss a few dividends and research your soul and buying habits both at the store, and at the "stock market".
I can't tell if shorts are going to be in order yet, but I am wary beyond any wariness I have experienced in the last 15 years or so since these 'recessions' are able to take away a lot of equity, very fast, then climb again, the greased pole of recovery.
No crystal ball, or time machine we joke of, but there are fluid facts out there that should help a great deal.
I am sitting there, with all trailing stops off, and riding the wave, but there is a shark in the wave, and I think it is time to look very seriously at defensive moves for a bit.
Capt. Brian The Lost navigator
If you MUST buy something in here, buy SLV and SIVR, and some silver eagles for your pocket.
JPMorgan Loss Could Be Next 'Shock' Event [View article]
This is one article that I feel the comments show me more of what is going on, than the article. I have seen the dictionary shaken to its core with folks finding words to elevate themselves above the crowd showing their knowledge of rhetoric and diction.
I have seen name calling, and great emotions rising to the surface defending thinking and not giving much thought to the actual bent of the article.
I agree the article is a lot of speculation, but, when he starts out saying it is speculation and what could happen, I have no problem with the ideas and events that could unfold.
I will make this short. This world is getting to be a very dangerous place, politically, investment-wise, travel-wise, and the big factor I see it is getting more and more dangerous, is the very people and institutions I trusted and looked up to as a boy, are my assumed enemies as a man (Or, if you will, an investor)
I don't like the fact that huge banks which control our lives and futures are able to not be transparent and to have so much at risk that their very existence is a danger to us all.
The greed of the real estate depression we are still crawling out of will be with us for decades as still speculators and 'flippers' still ply their trade with mortgage games and anything they can to strip money from pockets of the hard working people.
I am on the cusp of retirement, and should have had my business sold this week, but no, some bank has it tied up looking for a non-existent title to my business. The ONLY title I have is the one to the boat, and I wonder why the bank has not yet asked me for my titles to get ready for closing.
The buyer and I have 'signed articles', and have no problem giving and getting that which will promulgate the sale and purchase of a little tiny sightseeing boat. If we are mired in paperwork not engendered by the buyer and seller, what must a big business have to go thru to get the deal done?
I am fearful of what is coming, and having a giant like JPM be called into question simply underlines my fears.
What is happening? I have absolutely no clue. I pay attention to the daily news, and watch the sectors, try to find the best thing in a hot sector, and gravitate towards it until a hotter sector opens up.
Running a business and investing is a daunting task, and I don't see it gettin' any easier with all the sharks that swim on the land.
So what does the little investor do? Stay away from the heavy current, ride the edges. Like getting caught in a riptide. If you try to swim against it, you will drown. Go with it and swim to its edges, and then crawl out.
Swim again in easier tides and currents, and perhaps we [the little investor] may avoid the JPM's because when and if they collapse, they will do it overnight. Sticking with other less volatile companies, making money, doing business, may be the best route.
Of course, stay in touch with the big picture, and perhaps you can be nimble enough to get in and out, and even learn to hedge and short your own thinking.
So much, so confusing. So, with that said, I have no idea if JPM will lose, nor how much, nor what the effect will be. Just invest wisely, and exit anything getting too much attention. PAY ATTENTION Capt. Brian The Lost Navigator
PS Listen to yourself most, and to others the least. Most do not have a clue.
"Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others. It's cheaper!"
Non-agency MBS continue to power forward, helped by an improving housing market, but also by shrinking supply. Peaking at $2.2T in 2007, the market has shrunk to just $986B today (and an expected $750B in 2014) as principal gets paid down with little to no new origination. "The risk premium on non-agency mortgages is expected to diminish," says Amherst Securities. [View news story]
Too good to be true? ususally is. Watch out Just keep an eye on things this is a strange world, and gettin' stranger. Capt. Brian The Lost Navigator
Is Annaly Capital (And mREITs) Right For Seniors - Part II [View article]
When income stops from your labor, and begins from your savings, it will behoove you to be sure that your risk tolerance is closely watched. Your stash cannot be replaced, and took so much time to save, and can be gone with the landing of one of many black swans. So, my advice is, if you are playing with high risk income, like REITs, have a plan. That plan should include close stops no matter what some say are bad about stops. It is the most protection you can get for when you are napping.
The hot mortgage REIT sector gets a bit frothier as Javelin Mortgage (JMI) files to raise $125M in an IPO. The recently formed business, managed by ARMOUR Residential (ARR), will - what else - borrow short, lever up, and buy MBS. (S-11) [View news story]
Every time some company issues more stock or changes something, lots of folks panic thinking they are trying to hide something. Look at NLY and CIM. Am I happy with both of those. You bet yur best anchor matey!
ARR is one of the best paying REITs and when something changes, many want the others to head for cover. This is just another expansion and proof that the industry is vibrant.
I will be watching the new offer, and all the other pertinent facts regarding owning a stock, and buy more or sell some as the facts NOT the emotions govern my thinking.
Holding ARR for the reason I got in, for the dividend.
Sometimes Buying An Option Makes More Sense Than Buying The Underlying Stock [View article]
Good grief, I really have to rein in my tongue to not make a snide comment on your saying "Maybe an options naysayer would like to explain how they make any profit in a falling market?" Simple, short the market. Please read your own text before posting. Just a thought. Or buy a reverse ETF like ZSL. I REPEAT, OPTIONS ARE A MINEFIELD, AND IF YOU DON'T FULLY UNDERSTAND THEM, KEEP AWAY! I did not say, 'don't use options'. I said, "get knowledge first". Capt. Brian The Lost Navigator
U.S. Embarking On A New Secular Bull Market? [View article]
Thing of it is, many of the jobs lost were unnecessary jobs to begin with,and people were buying toys they did not need. Now with the "hard times" upon us/them, they pull in their spending horns, and are more focused on needs than wants. I suspect, that a lot of lost job people will have to retool their thinking if they want to get back in the job force, as their old job is history.
Good luck to us all. Capt. Brian The Lost Navigator
U.S. Embarking On A New Secular Bull Market? [View article]
This is a lucid, well thought out, and presented article using facts that cannot be denied and were it all true and running the show we would be slamming up in the most memorable bull market in history. So, why are we just trudging along, making headway like climbing a greased pole? We are making headway for sure, but the reason it is not crazy loony mad, is due to the anchors our ship of state is dragging. If one looks at the overall economic picture, not leaving out things. You see, that is the problem. Were someone to list all the pros and cons for a bull market, [or a bear market] we would be here til this time next year reading, and writing, arguing and never coming to an agreement as to what is going to happen. These are the times when the average investor has to hunker down and realize that not all the writers can tell us the whole story, so they attempt to make a conclusion, when reading just their stuff leads you to a truck-stop where you can park for the night and not worry. Lemme tell you sumpthin' pilgrim, there are many factors out there which is why we are slugging along up hamburger hill with no real feeling of euphoria as the winds of war both real and imagined, both economic and military bend our minds and wills to be too sure of our path.
All I can recommend is follow the hot sectors with close stops, and if you get stopped out, get back in unless you are happy being out.
Just beware, there are dragons and imps lurking out there and their dinner is your money. Be wary.
Remember, confidence is vigilance asleep.
I am thinking there will be some problems soon, and they will not go away once they get their teeth into our wallets.
Look at all the economic winds, then make your decisions. Learn to hedge, that may help a lot.
Is Annaly Capital (And mREITs) Right For Seniors - Part II [View article]
Hang in there with REITs for now folks, Don't listen too much to this author.
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
GO GO GO REITS REITS REITS!!! For now anyway
Annaly: Reversal Of Fortune [View article]
I can offer this advise; Read the book, "The Richest Man In Babylon"
Do it, regardless of income or expenses... 'READ IT"!!!
Capt. Brian
Annaly: Reversal Of Fortune [View article]
I just sent a letter to my financial advisors that I need help now as my income has stopped, and my savings must pay for any future folly I may invent, such as eating, paying electric bills etc.
With that said, I also believe that, in normal circumstances this article would be a real winner, putting up proper red flags telling the engineer the bridge is out on the stormy night, and to try to keep the whole thing from the coming chasm.
For now, I don't believe I am going to panic out of my nice dividend payers especially NLY. I will however, put a stop in fairly close and if the author is correct, [as he well may be], then I am out with a tolerable loss of equity, [but have to bake in the pie, the earned dividends, and as long as the entire enterprise is getting me over 10% analyzed, I stay in.
A year or so ago, I bought PSEC ( A BDC ), (My 'advisor' said not to buy) and when they cut their dividend, and the stock went down, I looked at it again with the eye of 'would I buy it again?', and I decided then, against all the gurus, and advisors or mine to keep it. Since then, with the 11+% dividend, and a little growth, I am now over 23% [analyzed] since purchase.
I also see the fiscal cliff approaching, new tax treatments, and a boon for the REIT industry. Maybe not so for the BDC's.
So, if not today, durned soon, I will be putting in real close stops, [in case the author is right], but holding in case I'm right, and getting advise from all my fellows.
Yup, perhaps a minefield approaching.
Drat, I thought retirement would be easier.
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
PS market just opened, one advisor said to sell PSEC, I said hold, it is up .07 as I type.
PSS Also there has been a lot of negative talk re: NLY, it is up also today, and I still hold it. Am I a genius, not by any means, just look at my results however.
Keep your own counsel!
"They can't get rid of this rule fast enough," says a bank analyst of the FASB's progress toward eliminating the debt valuation adjustment (DVA) from bank earnings. The rule - which perversely adds to earnings as a bank's credit deteriorates (and subtracts from the bottom line as credit improves) - has been behind big whipsaws in reported numbers in recent quarters (Q3 will be no exception). "(It's) one of the more ridiculous concepts that's ever been invented in accounting," says Jamie Dimon. [View news story]
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
Why The U.S. Is Europe: Central Bank Deficit Funding Thinly Veiled [View article]
I have to KNOW I have a certain stash in the back room, and a certain income to fund my way of life. I have to work for the income, and use some investing tools to help me get income. There are ways to use leverage that can enhance my income if chosen properly, but usually,using leverage comes home to bite the investor. Big and small, we have seen the cost of being leveraged, and the pain of de-leveraging. Which I may add, we are still trying to find a way to de-leverage. [actually, the leverage, or as some call it 'margin', has been the ruin of many a poor boy.
For me, my brain tires reading this kind of article, because it begins to confuse and leave me in the legal dust of the abilities of our bankers and politicians to steal our money, and eventually, we wind up eating our own arms to survive.
I don't know how the heckers they can keep this circus tent afloat, but it certainly does not give a retiring fellow much confidence.
So, I will continue to invest as defensively as possible, gleaning dividends and growth where I can, but for sure there is no more buy and hold. It is take a bite and hide with it before the hyenas take it away from me.
Banks, the very word gives me the purple wobblies.
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
The rescue of Spain's banks will cause the country's budget deficit to hit 7.4% this year, above its 6.3% target, the government said yesterday. Authorities reckon Spain could require €40B of its EU credit line after stress tests showed the sector needs €53.75B. Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 85.3% in 2012 - above a previous forecast of 80% - and 90.5% in 2013. [View news story]
They are still spending more than they take in, and want those on the tax roles to pay for their folly.
All I can do, is hide behind some high paying REITs for the time being, hang there in the hot sector of PM's, and hope for the best.
I see a lot of global problems out there, both economically and politically speaking, so it is time to hunker down. Perhaps wait on the fall vacation, just put a few extra in the pocket, and see where this thing is going. [I am talking about the macro economics that really control our economy]
Perhaps now is a good time to get in cash, take profits, miss a few dividends and research your soul and buying habits both at the store, and at the "stock market".
I can't tell if shorts are going to be in order yet, but I am wary beyond any wariness I have experienced in the last 15 years or so since these 'recessions' are able to take away a lot of equity, very fast, then climb again, the greased pole of recovery.
No crystal ball, or time machine we joke of, but there are fluid facts out there that should help a great deal.
I am sitting there, with all trailing stops off, and riding the wave, but there is a shark in the wave, and I think it is time to look very seriously at defensive moves for a bit.
Capt. Brian
The Lost navigator
If you MUST buy something in here, buy SLV and SIVR, and some silver eagles for your pocket.
JPMorgan Loss Could Be Next 'Shock' Event [View article]
I have seen name calling, and great emotions rising to the surface defending thinking and not giving much thought to the actual bent of the article.
I agree the article is a lot of speculation, but, when he starts out saying it is speculation and what could happen, I have no problem with the ideas and events that could unfold.
I will make this short. This world is getting to be a very dangerous place, politically, investment-wise, travel-wise, and the big factor I see it is getting more and more dangerous, is the very people and institutions I trusted and looked up to as a boy, are my assumed enemies as a man (Or, if you will, an investor)
I don't like the fact that huge banks which control our lives and futures are able to not be transparent and to have so much at risk that their very existence is a danger to us all.
The greed of the real estate depression we are still crawling out of will be with us for decades as still speculators and 'flippers' still ply their trade with mortgage games and anything they can to strip money from pockets of the hard working people.
I am on the cusp of retirement, and should have had my business sold this week, but no, some bank has it tied up looking for a non-existent title to my business. The ONLY title I have is the one to the boat, and I wonder why the bank has not yet asked me for my titles to get ready for closing.
The buyer and I have 'signed articles', and have no problem giving and getting that which will promulgate the sale and purchase of a little tiny sightseeing boat. If we are mired in paperwork not engendered by the buyer and seller, what must a big business have to go thru to get the deal done?
I am fearful of what is coming, and having a giant like JPM be called into question simply underlines my fears.
What is happening? I have absolutely no clue. I pay attention to the daily news, and watch the sectors, try to find the best thing in a hot sector, and gravitate towards it until a hotter sector opens up.
Running a business and investing is a daunting task, and I don't see it gettin' any easier with all the sharks that swim on the land.
So what does the little investor do? Stay away from the heavy current, ride the edges. Like getting caught in a riptide. If you try to swim against it, you will drown. Go with it and swim to its edges, and then crawl out.
Swim again in easier tides and currents, and perhaps we [the little investor] may avoid the JPM's because when and if they collapse, they will do it overnight. Sticking with other less volatile companies, making money, doing business, may be the best route.
Of course, stay in touch with the big picture, and perhaps you can be nimble enough to get in and out, and even learn to hedge and short your own thinking.
So much, so confusing.
So, with that said, I have no idea if JPM will lose, nor how much, nor what the effect will be. Just invest wisely, and exit anything getting too much attention.
PAY ATTENTION
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
PS Listen to yourself most, and to others the least. Most do not have a clue.
"Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others. It's cheaper!"
Non-agency MBS continue to power forward, helped by an improving housing market, but also by shrinking supply. Peaking at $2.2T in 2007, the market has shrunk to just $986B today (and an expected $750B in 2014) as principal gets paid down with little to no new origination. "The risk premium on non-agency mortgages is expected to diminish," says Amherst Securities. [View news story]
Watch out
Just keep an eye on things this is a strange world, and gettin' stranger.
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
McCormick & Co. (MKC): FQ3 EPS of $0.78 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $977.7M (+6.2% Y/Y) misses by $12M. (PR) [View news story]
Is Annaly Capital (And mREITs) Right For Seniors - Part II [View article]
Remember, confidence is vigilence asleep.
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
The hot mortgage REIT sector gets a bit frothier as Javelin Mortgage (JMI) files to raise $125M in an IPO. The recently formed business, managed by ARMOUR Residential (ARR), will - what else - borrow short, lever up, and buy MBS. (S-11) [View news story]
ARR is one of the best paying REITs and when something changes, many want the others to head for cover. This is just another expansion and proof that the industry is vibrant.
I will be watching the new offer, and all the other pertinent facts regarding owning a stock, and buy more or sell some as the facts NOT the emotions govern my thinking.
Holding ARR for the reason I got in, for the dividend.
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
Sometimes Buying An Option Makes More Sense Than Buying The Underlying Stock [View article]
Simple, short the market.
Please read your own text before posting. Just a thought.
Or buy a reverse ETF like ZSL. I REPEAT, OPTIONS ARE A MINEFIELD, AND IF YOU DON'T FULLY UNDERSTAND THEM, KEEP AWAY!
I did not say, 'don't use options'. I said, "get knowledge first".
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
U.S. Embarking On A New Secular Bull Market? [View article]
I suspect, that a lot of lost job people will have to retool their thinking if they want to get back in the job force, as their old job is history.
Good luck to us all.
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
U.S. Embarking On A New Secular Bull Market? [View article]
So, why are we just trudging along, making headway like climbing a greased pole? We are making headway for sure, but the reason it is not crazy loony mad, is due to the anchors our ship of state is dragging. If one looks at the overall economic picture, not leaving out things. You see, that is the problem. Were someone to list all the pros and cons for a bull market, [or a bear market] we would be here til this time next year reading, and writing, arguing and never coming to an agreement as to what is going to happen.
These are the times when the average investor has to hunker down and realize that not all the writers can tell us the whole story, so they attempt to make a conclusion, when reading just their stuff leads you to a truck-stop where you can park for the night and not worry.
Lemme tell you sumpthin' pilgrim, there are many factors out there which is why we are slugging along up hamburger hill with no real feeling of euphoria as the winds of war both real and imagined, both economic and military bend our minds and wills to be too sure of our path.
All I can recommend is follow the hot sectors with close stops, and if you get stopped out, get back in unless you are happy being out.
Just beware, there are dragons and imps lurking out there and their dinner is your money. Be wary.
Remember, confidence is vigilance asleep.
I am thinking there will be some problems soon, and they will not go away once they get their teeth into our wallets.
Look at all the economic winds, then make your decisions. Learn to hedge, that may help a lot.
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navigator
Annaly Capital's Dividend Cut, Falling Interest Rate Margins, Prepayment Risks Are Worrisome [View article]
Capt. Brian
The Lost Navig
ator