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Brian Bobbitt

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  • Canadian Discounts On Gold And Other Precious Metals (May Update) [View article]
    DRAT. I feel th is article has no basis in any facts. I wish articles that don't choose a direction and be proud of it should be bypassed by the editors.

    I have been denied articles because they don't give the investor anything to grab onto or no basis.

    This is but another series of articles which may just as well say, "Your guess is as good as mine." Then go on to prove it!

    I say simply, every ledge the PM's find lower, you should increase your supply.
    My own attack on the 'low' prices is to trade in scrap silver for silver eagles and high grade numismatics. I am, in fact, right in the middle of a massive trade of that ilk.

    I feel the storm is building,but not yet breaking, and there is time to amass numismatics, very high grade and rarity, then trade them in at the last minute for silver eagles.

    This financial tsunami coming, IMHO, is going to propel the PM's to new highs. I don't know how long QE and the like can hold back the financial storm coming, but it must come.

    Then again, you will learn what real money is made of.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    May 15 10:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Remain Close To $20? [View article]
    Well, with the problems I have getting an article through the censors at SA, I have taken to just using the comments. I try to keep it relevant to what the subject at hand is.
    In fact, sometimes the subject at hand is involved with myriad other items and get merged. LOL thanks.
    Capt B
    May 15 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Remain Close To $20? [View article]
    For the ETF's of silver, their drop has no matter IMHO. ETF's will reflect the price action of silver. Silver's actual price is determined by two major factors. 1) It's price on the global market & 2) the real supply and demand factors in all its markets from investments thru jewelry and its industrial uses.

    For us, the investors, not the real users, we must ride along with the vagaries of the price just as with any investment.

    Now, when we are really concerned, is when we are looking for a two minute day trade, or a long term position.

    Really, most of us just want to see a profit, and are not hedging our retirement or depending on Ag to 'see us through' bad times.
    So, where do we go from here other than the standard report of most writers, brokers, and soothsayers of all ilk?

    I could say, "up and down" in so many words which is really what you get from most pundits.

    Sellers say up, buyers say down, and so it goes.
    I am a silver (Ag) bug, but can be swayed by a bear market, and sell out all my Ag and buy something else.

    Let my mouth be led by my money. What am I doing. I have been, for some time now, as Ag drops, a buyer of silver American eagles, when I can get them at anything under the spot price, [just to make me feel good]. For a long time now, no matter what price I buy at, the next day or so, seems cheaper, so I buy some more.

    Last week, I sent off ALL my scrap silver (bars, mine rounds, anything I had left which could be 'sold off' and I got spot for it, and it was just under 22 Lbs.

    Now I still have silver eagles, those you can't have.

    I am trading them off for some very rare, marketable and desirable numismatics, which if you have a way to check, have been rising in price IF you buy the high end, rare, low population coins.

    If you don't understand that market, fine, buy the silver eagles and unload all scrap silver at this level. I am convinced, as it appears is the market, that silver has seen its lows.

    Now I'm just a washed up old flotsam laying on the beach in the hot sun too long in from the sea, but from what these ole sun-baked eyes can see, and my raisin brain can decipher, we have seen the lows in silver, and perhaps gold and the other two Pd and Pt.

    Volume seems to have dried up and that may mean less interest in, or the feel for the need of the PM's (Precious Metals) but there is one fact that continues to get my attention, and that is the appearance that the PM's can't/won't go lower from here.

    Chart patterns suggest a breakout either way. Since April gold has formed a strong technical pattern which is the 'coiled spring'. There is not a hint of which way it will go EXCEPT for the levels it is at, keeps being the lows. Just can't seem to get weaker in here.

    There is always sellers lurking in the wings to break even, as an item gets legs and people are so relieved to break even, they give up the rise in the works. This I believe with all my knowledge and experience is what is about to take place.

    Figure on this: The more things look different, the more they are the same. There is no real change in the forces which price the PM's. Fundamentally, the drivers are still very strong, and with current monetary policies in Washington, D. C. and at our lovely FED, nothing has really changed or appears will change. For sure the inflationary drivers are getting stronger.

    Do some percentages of products you buy. If you think inflation is not at work, you are in deep doo doo with your investigations and you better go ask a housewife who buys for a family.

    Netflix just raised it another dollar. Started out at $7, then you had to pay double to get both in home and mail, then up a dollar each, and last week, I got notice of another dollar raise. THAT my friend is inflation. Went to Denny's and the Country Fried Steak is so thin it only has one side. There is a two for $5 special at BK on a fish sandwich, and it also is half its size and tastes like salted wall paper paste. Usta get more food for less money.
    Am I the only one to notice how retailers are making products smaller, boxes it comes in remains the same, and a small increase in price. It all adds up to more than a 10% price rise. What do you call that? Long ago I stopped calling it inflation because the NGM's (nice government men) say inflation is under control. I call it; "The New Economy".

    If the cause remains, the outcome remains. Inflation is the real monster, not the disappearance of the US$. That is not gonna happen. Sure, the dollar will go down, but less than other main currencies, and the dollar index will still look 'okay'. But, it still buys less, and again, (am I boring you?) that's inflation.

    Relying on the dollar index to soothe your nerves won't stop prices rising in the store. Crude oil has peaked long ago, but fuel prices still creep up. They know just how much we can tolerate and stop it there.

    Stocks appear to be making a broader top, and whether it is consolidation or the top adds to the confusion.

    I guess everything is 'in irons' and quite becalmed. Not a nice situation for the sailor or investor. We just have to wait for the wind to come; and come it shall. It always does. I say a storm is coming, gathering strength just beyond the horizon, and it is gonna be a whopper.

    I constantly warn you that the 'recovery' from the last recession, this time has been force fed, and the feeding continues. It must and will stop, and the flood gates will open.

    Investors are like alcoholics, we ignore reality until it is far too late. One day, the market is gonna show up drunk, and then will be the day of the PM's.

    One of the reasons the market is kind of 'topping', is because there is an innate knowledge, like it has been pressed into our DNA that this fake recovery is not good, but we can't stop drinking the cool aid. When this cool aid is withheld, Katy bar the door. We are like a house of cards in a domed stadium with a fellow with a six horsepower leaf blower at each door. If one of them gets in.....

    I believe there is a lot of artificial props under most markets. There is one thing the alchemists have not been able to do, and that is change lead into gold. There is just so much gold and silver around, and when its time comes you won't believe it. You have seen the power of buyers, shoving PM's up twice now but this time will be epic. It will not be due to a little inflation, or a little war, or anything but the reality of major financial problems sorting themselves out.

    The war lords of the world are chomping at the bit. Putin has gone mad. There are people still trading people. There is so much hate out there between religious folk, the cauldron just has to boil over and when it does, it is gas going into the fire under the pot, not water.

    I would think, that if you don't have some precious metals in your basement by now, you MUST be thinking it is awful close to needing some.

    I know some very conservative folks, and they have begun to dip their beak into this odd market. Strangely enough, it is the only money, and most people are afraid of it. Man, how we eat the pabulum and drink the cool aid.

    Just the price action of the metals should tell you something. Usually they move in tandem. This time,they are wallowing around, gold goes up a little, and silver drops the same day, then reverses itself. Still hovering near the lows, I say BUY NOW, avoid the June rush.

    I think the summary above, simply, is a 'today show', and not important in the overall drivers for PM needs and pricing.
    The charts above are fine and correct, but they only show a window with raindrops. You see a wet window and think you have beheld the storm. Let me tell you, there is just a hint on those 'windows' above. The real storm is out there.
    I think you can buy PM's VERY safely in here, and just wait. I am, as I said, seeing enough time ahead to buy numismatics, hold a bit, and sell at a profit and THEN open a American Silver Eagle Mine. IF I can get them then.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    May 12 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial sector ETFs under pressure thanks to BofA [View news story]
    Buying opp. Geezo, is this hard?
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 29 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Listen, Silver: We Need To Talk [View article]
    If China does have thousands of tonnes & I suspect from lots of input off the grid of folks selling gold and related items, that China has around 3000 tonnes, USA has about 8000 and so on.
    I do not think any country wants their stash to degrade in value, ergo I feel your estimate is correct. I also believe the short term aberrations should be ignored, and long term trends relied upon. Of course all trends change, end or go flat. "Every rope has an end", It has been said.

    I think inflation is a real worry, but we have to deal with the US$ being the reserve currency, and I feel that before another currency takes its place we will see a global currency first. And THAT is not likely for the foreseeable future. (IMHO)

    I look at the long term trendline of Au and Ag rising in price, and until that trendline is broken, I will remain in the bull camp. Because it is so close to that trendline, I am extremely wary and fearful that it could be broken for more than one reason.

    1) If it is controlled, (the price) then they big guys want to shake out all weak hands before a major rise.
    2) Deflation is a real threat, and due to poor global economy and employment, it will be a problem for the world as it is for Japan, then the PM's will see further weakness and how low is anyone's guess.
    3)The reality of even with Obama's fouling up America, he is not able to derail demand of our products here and at abroad, and simple demand for our 'toys' is keeping things on track economically. And if his stupidity is allowed to continue, then we may see the collapse of the US$ over time and the bull trend in PMs will simply continue as we see the gentle rise in force presently.

    My visible use of Brangelo, his mutual funds and the market to provide me with income enough to fund my retirement along with SS is proof of my bottom line thinking. Further proof is my investigation into selling my extensive coin collection and trading in for silver eagles is also proof that I am convinced I am right about the non-explosive rise in PMs, nor that the collapse of the US$ is imminent.

    If I had to do all the investing myself, I would be heavily in S&P ETF's. Heavy in The Dow stocks, perhaps the ETF also.

    Due to the extreme 'handling' of the oil and gas market, PM prices, I would not get more PM ETF's nor physical inventory at this time. I have around 1200 oz of Ag, and have sold all physical, but am keeping the last 1200 oz. I feel, at this time, buying the 90% bags makes more sense than eagles. As everyone knows, even shopkeepers they are 90% Ag, and will be more acceptable than any other 'money' in a time of terrible inflation, civil unrest and so on.

    I have stopped buying eagles, and am keeping and buying the 90% dimes, quarters, and halves.

    I have limited cash to buy more numismatics, and need that for vacations this year, so I am continuing to unload my sub MS and PF 70 coins for very rare, or 70 grades, for certain rarities. Common dates, and high population coins are not in my liking. Although, there are some varieties that are very desirable and need to be watched for at shows and yard sales.

    Conclusion: The US dollar is hear to stay for the foreseeable future. PM's are a good long term investment. Stay with the stock market, unless you see real interest rates begin to rise. Take profits along the way, and get out of the market from time to time, just to give your mind a rest. Being 'all in' can ruin your digestion.

    Have fun.

    If you are sick and tired of trying to figure it out, let me know and I will show you how my money manager is doing so well for me.
    Apr 29 02:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bells ringing for Treasurys? Apple files to sell debt [View news story]
    It appears interest rates, in the real world are rising a bit. I don't know if that is a precursor to higher FED rates or Prime but I would begin to prepare for higher rates and the results thereof;
    Such as: Present bonds and interest bearing notes dropping in price.
    US$ rising in value in the dollar index, causing difficulty in exports and making imports easier.
    Foreign Travel may increase. Precious metals may fall further. Business in general could begin to lag a bit, and if fuel prices go up along with %'s, then a return to recessionary times could begin.
    I for one, can't see how the FED or government agencies can raise rates, but there it is.
    I would be fairly protective of profits in here, and take profits along the way, sit on the side for a month or so until you start getting that warm feeling again.
    Just a word of caution.
    Start buying silver eagles as the price drops. Don't pay more than $3 over spot price.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 29 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Shifting To Mobile [View article]
    Looking at the charts, and the selling of a few shares by an insider is NOT reason to dump a stock. Sometimes insiders buy a Bentley, or a new house or or or.
    FB charts are amazing and if you want to make money, ride a rising stock, NOT a falling one. Look at the charts and see who is upping and who is downing. I am not buying more as my MM's are handling it. but I would if I was doing it and absolutely reco FB.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 28 10:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Shifting To Mobile [View article]
    Great, a buying opportunity.
    Apr 28 10:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: A Major Buying Opportunity Presents Itself [View article]
    The thieves are active, but so is the BAC.The bank is beyond is troubles, buying opportunity is here again.Capt. BrianThe Lost Navigator
    Apr 25 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Destroys Earnings Estimates And Is Offered A Cold Glass Of Apathy From Mr. Market [View article]
    I'm neither for not against apathy. But this is just a buying opportunity.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 25 11:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google goes after Facebook's app ads; WhatsApp hits 500M MAUs [View news story]
    I am retired, but I wish my business had the press that FB has. I'm sure, with all that pile of HS, there has to be a pony somewhere. I'm not making decisions for my stash, as I turned it over to a MM, but he also is reco'g FB.

    Happy summertime..
    I bot FB at 42, and still have it.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 23 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch For This Fly In Facebook's Ointment [View article]
    One thing about investing: Always look for the reasons to buy a company. Don't waste your time looking for the negative as there are always plenty of wives to tell you what not to do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    This is why I gave up and put my stash with a money manager. He has to perform above a certain line in the sand, or I will get someone else. All I care about is my actual return on my entire treasury. If he can't do that, I will look elsewhere. So far so good.

    I knew my biggest problem was naysayers scaring away investors who should be holding or buying. But no, they find so many ways to find fault with a real boomer it is amazing. It may perhaps, be the big reason for REITs being so dangerous. ( I mean, of course, the high payers )

    Beware the naysayer, he can be more harmful than a loss in a business.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 23 12:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    I am not surprised at all that the markets have continued to rise. If you would check some of my back comments, some near term, some months and weeks ago, I have continued to say that my bet is on my money manager and he keeps saying that dips these days are merely buying opportunities, and he did that for the entire year last year.

    Now,as we have dips, he says we have entered peacefully, are in a wide spread, with hedges in place. (Last year, even my hedges made money. Not a lot, but were not in negative territory. ( I was awed and amazed ) I was never able to make money on both sides before.
    So, I will repeat at the risk of being boring: It is a new world, and 'let it ride' is a Las Vegas game, and we don't do it in investing with stocks. Folks are taking profits, going for a 'coffee break', then jumping back in without a lot of delay.
    I would think, unless some macro economic event arises, we should continue along our merry way. You understand of course, that downturns are caused, they don't just happen. Kind of like being pregnant. Something has to happen.
    I think business is happening. It is the reason precious metals are just bumping along. The world understands it needs food clothing and shelter in all situations. So let the miners strike, the politicians wail, and the armies fire their salutes. We still will buy things.
    Capt. BrianThe Lost Navigator
    Apr 20 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Southern Company? [View article]
    SO has always been a good stock to include in your 'folio. Now if you're telling me it just got better, perhaps I should add a little more.
    I will say though, it is only good if you want a little growth and a sustainable dividend.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 18 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Captain Brian's ENHANCED TERMINAL VELOSITY GOLD BEARING STUDY: This includes the comparisons made over the last 5000+ years with all facts except the important ones.

    The first thing the author says is gold is going $800 an ounce. Fine, I say it is going to $200. (But I ain't sayin' in what movie)

    Anyone can pick any price and compare a similar time in the history of gold and predict that is the reason it will do it again.

    It does not seem to matter to the author, who is more than welcome to voice his opinion, what the costs of mining are throughout the world.

    In a several part presentation of another SA author, he goes into great depth of the cost of mining an once of gold which within all his cauldrons of brew come up with a very convincing amount. Which he seems comfortable with putting in a 'price range' of around 1150 to 1250 there-abouts.
    I would not suspect that gold would hover long below the cost of mining. Corn neither for that matter. But that's another matter. Speaking of matter there are three kinds of matter. The one is the one you sit on, 2nd is the recent discovery of anti-matter which destroys matter. (consider this comment anti-matter for this article) and the third I discovered last night, which I call "DOESN'T MATTER" There are many things that are made of doesn't matter, but I am not going into that. It doesn't matter.
    BELOW IS THE WHOLE IDEA HERE!, (next sentence)
    In this totally fouled up world, gold is about the only 'sure thing'. Silver and the other white metals, {Pt and Pd} are a close 2nd etc.

    If one would simply go at the price of the metal (PM's) with a very long term chart, and take your eye off the daily and short term fluctuations, [which IMHO] are caused by emotions and trading of the day, which, given one or two days, really don't amount to a hill of beans. <---- see, there is some 'doesn't matter. Look at the long term charts, starting with daily, and work back...
    Take a technician's pencil and a straight edge, ( a ruler would work too) and connect the lowest price you can find on the left, and slowly move up the right edge up to the lowest price you can find on the right side.
    Now this gets pretty hard so stay with me. If the price at the right is higher than the one at the left, then prices are rising. If not.....
    My observation, using a sextant, an astrolobe, and two politicians (to include both sides) tells me gold is still rising. (Oh, and a ruler)
    My take is it always will be IN THE LONG RUN. Not every second or minute or hour as the authors seem to need to keep a bull run intact.

    I use the FOREX (Foreign Exchange) charts as they are traded most heavily and by most traders and some investors. They really reflect the real prices, highs, lows and closes of the time period selected.

    If one would first use a technicians pencil for must a few moments, one could easily pick up on the highs and lows for as long back as you want to go.

    I feel a monthly chart is the best, taking us back to before the big surge of March, 2011, one can start where gold did at the low well before it got legs and heated up.

    Gold, in October of 2008 was heading down, [as most things do to get rid of me and others who know everything] And just as the 'bottom' was found by the gold price at $251.90 on July, 1999 it then began a nice rise to its peak at a pre-close high of $1920.70 and that was about the height of bullish sentiment [of course]. Go back as far as you like gold is still higher. I simply used a recent low. The further you go back the more this works to my advantage.

    Then the rest is history, the bulls were put out to pasture, and all the bears were the hero of the day, and until near new highs are met again, the bears will be out of their caves like an Alaskan grizzly in the spring.
    By the time gold hits a new high, these bears will be stocked up with berries and newsletter fees enough to hold them until the next bear market. All the time, their brother is writing a bullish newsletter and cleaning up.
    The gold price will continue to do precisely what it has always done, and that is 'stand by' while countries, companies, people and so on, inflict upon themselves enough foot shots to fight another world war.
    I know enough about humans to know that they are not happy when things are going too good, so they inflict enough pain upon themselves to keep Dr. Freud and his friends rich trying to figure them out. When they do, they cannot admit to their patients that it is ingrained in our DNA to destroy things, mostly ourselves and NOT do what is good for us.
    Don't agree, well, then why are there so many fat people? So many in jail, so many murders, robberies, wars and so on and do forth. SEE? THAT is why we need gold.
    So, you keep selling, I will keep buying, love these low prices.
    Capt. BrianThe Lost Navigator
    Hey Pilgrim, it ain't gonna change neither!
    Apr 17 01:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment