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Brian Bobbitt

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  • Facebook Destroys Earnings Estimates And Is Offered A Cold Glass Of Apathy From Mr. Market [View article]
    I'm neither for not against apathy. But this is just a buying opportunity.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 25 11:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google goes after Facebook's app ads; WhatsApp hits 500M MAUs [View news story]
    I am retired, but I wish my business had the press that FB has. I'm sure, with all that pile of HS, there has to be a pony somewhere. I'm not making decisions for my stash, as I turned it over to a MM, but he also is reco'g FB.

    Happy summertime..
    I bot FB at 42, and still have it.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 23 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch For This Fly In Facebook's Ointment [View article]
    One thing about investing: Always look for the reasons to buy a company. Don't waste your time looking for the negative as there are always plenty of wives to tell you what not to do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    This is why I gave up and put my stash with a money manager. He has to perform above a certain line in the sand, or I will get someone else. All I care about is my actual return on my entire treasury. If he can't do that, I will look elsewhere. So far so good.

    I knew my biggest problem was naysayers scaring away investors who should be holding or buying. But no, they find so many ways to find fault with a real boomer it is amazing. It may perhaps, be the big reason for REITs being so dangerous. ( I mean, of course, the high payers )

    Beware the naysayer, he can be more harmful than a loss in a business.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 23 12:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    I am not surprised at all that the markets have continued to rise. If you would check some of my back comments, some near term, some months and weeks ago, I have continued to say that my bet is on my money manager and he keeps saying that dips these days are merely buying opportunities, and he did that for the entire year last year.

    Now,as we have dips, he says we have entered peacefully, are in a wide spread, with hedges in place. (Last year, even my hedges made money. Not a lot, but were not in negative territory. ( I was awed and amazed ) I was never able to make money on both sides before.
    So, I will repeat at the risk of being boring: It is a new world, and 'let it ride' is a Las Vegas game, and we don't do it in investing with stocks. Folks are taking profits, going for a 'coffee break', then jumping back in without a lot of delay.
    I would think, unless some macro economic event arises, we should continue along our merry way. You understand of course, that downturns are caused, they don't just happen. Kind of like being pregnant. Something has to happen.
    I think business is happening. It is the reason precious metals are just bumping along. The world understands it needs food clothing and shelter in all situations. So let the miners strike, the politicians wail, and the armies fire their salutes. We still will buy things.
    Capt. BrianThe Lost Navigator
    Apr 20 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Southern Company? [View article]
    SO has always been a good stock to include in your 'folio. Now if you're telling me it just got better, perhaps I should add a little more.
    I will say though, it is only good if you want a little growth and a sustainable dividend.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 18 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Captain Brian's ENHANCED TERMINAL VELOSITY GOLD BEARING STUDY: This includes the comparisons made over the last 5000+ years with all facts except the important ones.

    The first thing the author says is gold is going $800 an ounce. Fine, I say it is going to $200. (But I ain't sayin' in what movie)

    Anyone can pick any price and compare a similar time in the history of gold and predict that is the reason it will do it again.

    It does not seem to matter to the author, who is more than welcome to voice his opinion, what the costs of mining are throughout the world.

    In a several part presentation of another SA author, he goes into great depth of the cost of mining an once of gold which within all his cauldrons of brew come up with a very convincing amount. Which he seems comfortable with putting in a 'price range' of around 1150 to 1250 there-abouts.
    I would not suspect that gold would hover long below the cost of mining. Corn neither for that matter. But that's another matter. Speaking of matter there are three kinds of matter. The one is the one you sit on, 2nd is the recent discovery of anti-matter which destroys matter. (consider this comment anti-matter for this article) and the third I discovered last night, which I call "DOESN'T MATTER" There are many things that are made of doesn't matter, but I am not going into that. It doesn't matter.
    BELOW IS THE WHOLE IDEA HERE!, (next sentence)
    In this totally fouled up world, gold is about the only 'sure thing'. Silver and the other white metals, {Pt and Pd} are a close 2nd etc.

    If one would simply go at the price of the metal (PM's) with a very long term chart, and take your eye off the daily and short term fluctuations, [which IMHO] are caused by emotions and trading of the day, which, given one or two days, really don't amount to a hill of beans. <---- see, there is some 'doesn't matter. Look at the long term charts, starting with daily, and work back...
    Take a technician's pencil and a straight edge, ( a ruler would work too) and connect the lowest price you can find on the left, and slowly move up the right edge up to the lowest price you can find on the right side.
    Now this gets pretty hard so stay with me. If the price at the right is higher than the one at the left, then prices are rising. If not.....
    My observation, using a sextant, an astrolobe, and two politicians (to include both sides) tells me gold is still rising. (Oh, and a ruler)
    My take is it always will be IN THE LONG RUN. Not every second or minute or hour as the authors seem to need to keep a bull run intact.

    I use the FOREX (Foreign Exchange) charts as they are traded most heavily and by most traders and some investors. They really reflect the real prices, highs, lows and closes of the time period selected.

    If one would first use a technicians pencil for must a few moments, one could easily pick up on the highs and lows for as long back as you want to go.

    I feel a monthly chart is the best, taking us back to before the big surge of March, 2011, one can start where gold did at the low well before it got legs and heated up.

    Gold, in October of 2008 was heading down, [as most things do to get rid of me and others who know everything] And just as the 'bottom' was found by the gold price at $251.90 on July, 1999 it then began a nice rise to its peak at a pre-close high of $1920.70 and that was about the height of bullish sentiment [of course]. Go back as far as you like gold is still higher. I simply used a recent low. The further you go back the more this works to my advantage.

    Then the rest is history, the bulls were put out to pasture, and all the bears were the hero of the day, and until near new highs are met again, the bears will be out of their caves like an Alaskan grizzly in the spring.
    By the time gold hits a new high, these bears will be stocked up with berries and newsletter fees enough to hold them until the next bear market. All the time, their brother is writing a bullish newsletter and cleaning up.
    The gold price will continue to do precisely what it has always done, and that is 'stand by' while countries, companies, people and so on, inflict upon themselves enough foot shots to fight another world war.
    I know enough about humans to know that they are not happy when things are going too good, so they inflict enough pain upon themselves to keep Dr. Freud and his friends rich trying to figure them out. When they do, they cannot admit to their patients that it is ingrained in our DNA to destroy things, mostly ourselves and NOT do what is good for us.
    Don't agree, well, then why are there so many fat people? So many in jail, so many murders, robberies, wars and so on and do forth. SEE? THAT is why we need gold.
    So, you keep selling, I will keep buying, love these low prices.
    Capt. BrianThe Lost Navigator
    Hey Pilgrim, it ain't gonna change neither!
    Apr 17 01:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model For Assessing The Sustainability Of American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend [View article]
    I am an odd investor. If I find something that works, I stay with it. If I find it does not work over a proper period of investigation and trial, I simply move on.
    My experience with REITs of abnormal returns have proven to me that they are NOT sustainable over a long period.
    Somehow, there always seems to be a black swan [and most times bring many friends with them] which destroy the show.
    So, with that said, I have stayed with the mutual funds I presented long ago [since a year ago May [2013] and am making a nice income with New England Financial managing it. Brandon and Angelo [I call them Brangelo] are making my retirement easy so I can get on with the pursuit of happiness.
    Nuff said.
    Simple axioms like: "Too good to be true", "The higher the reward, the higher the risk" and so on hold water.
    I say, check out my stock talks for the list of mutual funds. I will update them soon.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator

    I will be gone for a while spending my dividends. PS I also believe there are those which tout the REITs with huge returns with facts and figures to suck in the uninformed like a used car lot. Beware of those articles which push abnormal returns. They are legal but..... Telling the truth attractively is an art form. B E W A R E
    Apr 16 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Words Of Gold From Warren Buffett [View article]
    Gold ( and other precious metals ) are not investing. The PM group is simply speculation.
    There is(are) so much that factors into the prices of the big four Au, Ag, Pt, and Pd, that it is almost folly to attempt to predict where prices will be in the future. Hell, most people in the know can't even agree on the average producer price for them. (If you ignore the spot price in the futures market like corn or wheat) But just try to guess those prices also.
    We all know how hard [or actually impossible ] it is for a simple stock with a nice clear track record. The inputs which cause price action is enormous.
    I have found that investing is more like mining dividends, and using dividend reinvestment. Using retirement accounts in which there are certain laws which control [somewhat] what goes into them.
    If you want to invest, you go buy a utility, an insured bond or muni paper. and always remember, the lowest return is usually the safest, and the more return you seek the higher the risk.
    If you are PM 'speculator, then look to the long term, or simply gamble with futures and hope for more big hits than big losses. THAT is not investing.
    Numismatic coins is the only way I know to invest in PM's with a good history of rising prices, but they must be the top grades, not raw (un-graded). and you must hold for years. Then you will 'maybe' see a growth. Will it be the amount you can get with a good dividend stock or the like. NO one knows.
    But again I say Precious Metal investing is speculation, NOT investing. So keep your % of investing capital do a dull roar.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Apr 8 12:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude prices slide as Libyan rebels agree to reopen oil ports [View news story]
    Any report about oil, and its global price must always be taken with tongue in cheek. If oil were like diamonds, ONLY the rich would have it. Diamonds are truly beautiful, desirable, and NOT RARE!
    If de Beers would make available its entire stock, (Like GM, Chevy, Nissan and so on makes their products available) you could buy diamonds out of gumball machines at the train station.
    Oil is kind of the same thing, a controlled substance. Meaning they control the price as there are really few suppliers and price control is relatively easy. (ever heard of OPEC?)
    The price of oil on the global market is the PPB (Price per barrel) which floats in a manageable range so all can drive a car, ride a bus, get goods delivered, have products manufactured and so on and so forth.
    In Cairo, where there is not much money, last time I was there, gasoline was .27 a gallon. Now as the price has been shoved up in Americans face to about as high as we can handle, magically, the price stops in the $3 to $4 range. When it ventures much higher, it begins to slow the economy and again, magically, after TPTB hear the gnashing of teeth and a growing insanity about prices, it floats near that magic level in which folks complain a lot, but still pony up and the drilling goes on.
    The money big oil is making is unbelievable. I am not against BP, and I know the spill in the gulf was really big but in time, overall it was a non-event like the Valdez thing.
    Yes there was some local damage, which given some time, mother nature would have cleaned up for us.
    Where is the damage from all the ships sunk during WWII? It is all gone, as the oil is a natural item and will be absorbed into the world pretty durn quick.
    Now I'm just a natural born fool and don't know much, but I travel a lot, (Just got back from Alaska, saw the pristine are of where the Exxon Valdez went down, and you could not grease your pan for eggs if you were looking for oil on the coastline.
    Same with the Gulf coast. It is back to pristine, but yet, the media still feeds on it right next to the lawyers. (Picture a carcass on the Serengetti Plain in Africa with the buzzards, hyenas and other cleanup crews taking care of business).
    The basic price needs to stay the same, which is why I like USO (USOIL) as a trading tool. it has its trading channel, and by going long (and short) when it hits the highs and lows it has established, one can supplement his fuel prices at home.
    Look at a five year chart of USO (now trading today about 36.36 and you can see the channel). This trade is a no brainer. Now it is kind of in the middle, so you need to wait for the price to seek its high or low. There are always 'reasons' why oil stays in this channel. Most consumers have never looked at a chart. They simply look at the price and jaw it


    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    P.S. I am not against the big profits big oil makes either. Do you have any concept of what it costs to go get oil, refine it. deliver it, and pay everyone. It is also nasty. I don't know their margins, but it must be nice, or they would not do it. But expecting oil to be nice, forgeddaboudit. Just use USO or the like as a trading tool and you can kind of manage your expense when it comes to oil products.
    Apr 7 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A March Jobs Pick-Up Doesn't Change The Outlook For Modest Growth [View article]
    I really think a lot of people are going to continue to be disappointed in job numbers if they don't realize that a lot of jobs that were lost in America will never return, no matter how well the economy does.
    Automation, slimming down by corporations, part time, Obamacare, and just the 'new way of doing business' has forced American industry to do things differently.

    The government is force feeding an unpalatable pabulum down our throats, and the response is to protect ourselves from poison, so we don't swallow it.

    Many evolutions come from good and bad things, both in biology and business. Our industrious people are industrious only for one thing, profit. Our present government and media seems to think that industrious folks, should pay for the 'other group', and there is a silent backlash.

    As long as business is vulnerable, government will take as much as it can get away with. So business's hire people who understand the law, and arrange their plates to keep most of their dinner on their plates. Somehow, profit became a four letter word. Paying executives a lot for their expertise is 'not in'.

    But paying doctors and lawyers hundreds of dollars per hour is okay. There will be an evening out as most businessmen/women, are generally smarter than politicians, so I am hopeful the business people win the day. I feel they will as that is where the play money comes from for the takers.

    If not, then we are doomed as now the American public has figured out how to vote themselves money from the public treasury, and soon it will be an empty promise.

    This will be answered by chaos and rising PM prices.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator.
    Apr 3 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Could Be A Nasty Spring For Precious Metals [View article]
    Could you date and send this article to me last month please? Thank you, it would be more helpful to get this data sooner.

    Back to the future.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Mar 30 06:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Settles For Billions, Significantly Reduces Income To Pay Dividends To Shareholders [View article]
    F A N T A S T I C B U Y I N G O P P O R T U N I T Y :
    After the drop. I would buy on the way down, if any.

    If not, then just go to coffee. But I would decide how much I wanted, and take a bite if and when it drops, and I bet it makes a V bottom.

    I hate banks, but love making money from them.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Mar 28 01:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Sell Facebook And Buy LinkedIn? [View article]
    This comment is kind of a repeat of one of mine a while back. I say, do the same thing I did with REITs when they were flying high. Buy a little of all and as one outperforms the other, (as the world decides which one they like best) then slowly seep to the high flyer.
    For me, I am using both, and many are. I would not be in an all fired hurry to sell either unless you are a maximizer of profits.
    NOTE: I am retired, so that may be a factor in my thinking...I use FB much more than Linkedin. IN fact, I rarely go to Linkedin, but that may be due to the fact I am not looking for business nor a job. Linkedin is becoming more than just a job finder, but..... nothing at all like FB IMHO.
    I am happy with a nice fat income from investments and if my plan is working, I let it be. My plan it so let my advisers handle my main stash. I have not picked a stock for actual investment now since last May.
    At the end of the first full fiscal year, I will look again May 25th will be a full year with New England Securities, and New England Financial. Angelo and Brandon are doing just fine.
    I am 'all in' now and happy to sit where ever they say. I really hope I don't have to take back the stash as I am having a ball playing.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    PS See my stock talks for what they are working with.
    Mar 28 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook buying VR headset maker Oculus for up to $2.3B [View news story]
    Sure, Mark Zuck is just a kid who got lucky and is on a spending spree with no thinking at all. And I'm a mongoose.

    Methinks MZ is brilliant, and is now the puppeteer. He pulls the strings and I have no problem dancing to his tune.

    I am sure, he is on the right track. When we have to begin to pay people to stay home, (like we pay farmers not to farm) they will need things to do. Even as we talk, the world is groping for fun things to do on line or with computers.

    Get with the program. I think FB is gonna be hard to beat in the next few years.

    Wanna go with the winners or be a whiner.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Mar 26 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Margin Accounts For The Conservative Investor [View article]
    yup, your words have merit. But, I, for one, want more Ag, so, if a little sustenance is needed, I think it will be worth it, as I do have a storage facility which is not expensive. I cannot imagine silver staying at this level, no more than I think Facebook is going to crash and burn.
    If I were to be forced to buy two items now, and only two, would be FB and Ag.

    nuff said

    good article and comments George.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Mar 25 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment