Seeking Alpha

Brian Bobbitt

View as an RSS Feed
View Brian Bobbitt's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Why This Is The Most Hated Bull Market Of All Time - Understanding The Folly Of Financial Engineering [View article]
    I don't hate a bull market. I am totally at fault for not believing in it. My biggest rule of investing has saved me from my own 'smarty pants'.

    I was and am convinced that this market is a cartoon running on hot air from Washington. Not real demand which usually fuels a boom time.

    So, not being stupid, even though I feel a storm is coming, (have had that feeling for years now, check my posts on stocks, and many comments along the way regarding these markets and PMs).

    What has saved me is my main rule of investing, "follow a trend until it stops".

    Back in 2007 I correctly called the bear market, and sold everything I could. Got out and got laughed at. All during the mortgage mess and so on and so forth which ensued for 2 years, I was able to snap my suspenders at the coffee shop day after day. Boy was I the smart one.

    But like a rooster who could not see the sunrise, I kept crowing for years later until May of last year, where I still could not see the sunshine, but finally felt the heat of daytime and FINALLY woke up and saw the sun (markets) rising and jumped aboard.

    This is when I gave my stash to my broker and he has done well ever since. I still cling to my feeling we are on the edge of doom and gloom, and our NGM's are selling us down the river, but until I see water in the bilge, I'm going with the trend of a bull market.

    The Euro-zone is finding a way when I thought, by now, there would be no more E$. Well, its there and alive and kicking. Germany is now supporting Spain by lending to them, instead of chastising them.

    Yup, I hate this market more than I can tell, because all the signs say to watch out, shorten sail, head for harbor and beware.

    But soldier winds are at my back, and until the set of the sails change, I'm "all in".

    Coins, hedges and now even covered call writing. I pulled out the stops a year ago may, and I am making 11% on conservative, over 16% on not so conservative, and over 30% on coins with precious metals (PM's) going down.

    So there, I am having a good time and I hate it.
    Geez I hate being wrong all the time.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jul 24 03:17 PM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: When Will The Gold Bugs Give In? [View article]
    I can understand your statement that the FED can't quit printing. But I also understand what will happen, eventually, if you continue to spend more than you take in, put up IOU's for what your are buying and hope you will continue to have friends which will hold your IOU's until your brother straightens up. (and he's a hunchback).
    I also KNOW that this printing and owing more than can possibly be paid must come to an end. Now the longer we allow our government to govern incorrectly, the deeper we get into debt.
    Let's look at reality. We elected (hired) some folks to run our country and do what is best for us. (Supposedly, for us, not for them) and we continue to allow them to fake facts, make up stories and promises they can't keep. All the while we bandy about how wrong it is but do nothing about it.
    Remember the Pied Piper? Remember the debt clock?
    Also, look at the world debt clock and compare others. Not every country is running in the red, but enough of them are to make me continue to believe gold is going up big time.
    Please touch on the buttons State Debt Clocks, and then World Debt Clocks on that same site.
    If any of you run a company, household, or governmental agency anywhere in the world, please reply and tell me just how long this can continue.
    The worlds real money people understand what they are doing and as long as the river runs their direction, they will swim with the current. Soon, they will find them so far downstream, they will not be able to get back. By then, they will be long gone with their fat wallets. Ask where the former head of some agencies are, and how much they took with them. You won't find those answers in the media.
    There must come a time when the banks fail to be able to meet their obligations, folks who loaned our government money will demand some sort of payment.
    We promise now to pay them zero percent. Wonder how long that will fly?
    We know what has happened to every entity which has spent beyond their means. They fail. What happens when a country fails? Same thing as if I fail, folks who I owe money to get screwed. Is that okay? Will tempers flare?Look at recent moves in The Euro-zone and surrounding countries whose economies cannot keep up with the governmental spending, and crooks which abound now more than ever. The pin has not yet pricked the balloon but the longer we inflate it with hot printed dollars, the more it will rise until it can no longer stand the pressure.I wish I was smarter and more eloquent so I could impress upon you folks out there that usually it is not the smartest idea to do what we are doing.In fact, as I have written in the past, it could come to pass that some politician comes to the podium and informs us that because we have allowed our employees to run up a debt, the owners of the business must pay off the bills we have accumulated. The owners are the voters and taxpayers. May I point out, not all the voters will be taxed, just the taxpaying base. We are the ones, the taxpayers who have to worry, and with about 47% of the people on welfare of some sort, the 53% who are not must pay the bill at some time in the future. To delay this fix is insane, incompetent, and a procrastination of the first magnitude. In my opinion, procrastination is living the past, ignoring in the present, and ruining the future. These debts could be thrust upon the few who pay taxes. Just after the Battle of Britain, Churchill said, "Never have so many owed so much to so few.", well I could say that, "Never in the field of finance has so few owed so much to so many." So few? What do I mean? Simply go to the debt clock, over on the right side, [as you look at it] is a little US Population section. In it are several categories. I focus on the number of people in the US, a little over 317 Million. Then the next line down is the number of tax payers, it is a little under 115 million. Go to the debt, (remember now, ONLY real working taxpayers can pay our debt, printing won't do it) The unfunded debt down in the right lower corner is over 126 TTTTRILLION! Now pilgrim, if you are still with me, divide the debt by the number of taxpayers.(if you calculator can handle it, you are winner) That is asking how much each taxpayer has to pay to get us back to ZERO. We have not been there since Hamilton started the bank called the FED. Your answer is, if your calc'r blew a fuse, is EACH TAXPAYER OWES, [or has to pay} $1,097,443.92 [EACH) to get us even. By the time I wrote this the figure has risen to 1,103.401.00!So, by the time you read this, these numbers are old hat, so you'd better get your checkbook out and take care of YOUR debt before it rises even more by Monday. This clock runs 24/7. No time off.
    I am sure I won't get many likes for this tirade, but it is the truth, and correct.
    Until those numbers come under more manageable levels, I am a gold bug of the first magnitude.
    Capt. BrianThe Lost Navigator.
    Load up on stocks now, everything is fine in Willoughby.BTW FYI you now owe, $1,103,402.00 you just spent a dollar reading this.
    Nov 16 01:46 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon in the spotlight with impending Obama gay rights move [View news story]
    This has GOT to change. I remember the slogan, "Remember the Maine" and "Remember the Alamo". All went to REMEMBERING American values. I say, "REMEMBER THE CONSTITUTION?" With a question mark. Because likely as it seems, no one seems to make the President adhere to it no how, no way after he was sworn to up hold it.

    The Lost Navigator
    Jun 17 06:32 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare Now For The Looming Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    GIVE?!? Give money to the middle class? Right, I am the low-down, working class Joe and have been slaving my explicative deleted heart out since I was nine years old, many years working double shifts, driving cabs at night and pushing a lawn mower in the day time, stories you could not make up, and you want me to GIVE my money to someone who simply does not deserve it? The NGM's are now calling Social Security, "Federal Disbursements" and other names that smack of our NGM's giving money to Americans. Let me tell you, YOU give your money to the undeserving, I am not gonna!!! At least not willingly.

    All the money I get back from the NGM's via SS and any other bennie I get, I PAID FOR WITH BLOOD SWEAT AND TEARS!!!

    Likely is, I will not get anywhere near back what I put in, as the NGM's steal it in their joint ponzi schemes of extracting money from Americans any way they can, forcing things upon us that they will not accept for them selves such as the medical debacle.

    GIVE? G I V E?!?

    Boy, and you wonder why...

    Never mind, my heart is screaming inside, and again, no one is listening.

    Go ahead, trumpet Obama's cause, because I can guarantee you it is not and will not be the founding fathers idea of a free country and freedom.

    He is going to take us right back to Europe.

    Damned takers have found out how to legally raid the public treasury and you think it is cute.


    I will wait for the free money and hold my breath waiting, just look for 'Blue Boy' when you get to my door with the money I am getting as a gift.

    So stupid there is nothing to compare us to. We have met the enemy and he is us.

    Go ahead, vote for Obama. NOT ME!

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Sep 1 09:58 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare Now For Silver's Upcoming Decline [View article]
    I think you are tilting at windmills and hoping to guess right again. Look friend, at the charts and tell me Ag is not in an uptrend. Swim against the tide if you like, and pile up all the reasons you like, but eventually, your dam of reasons will be broken by the rising tide of reality. It takes a while, and I don't mean years, but silver is real money and use as we all know a lot in industry from medicine to solar panels. I know for a fact that usable silver stocks are declining, and inflation is rising. I would ignore this static like I ignore the static regarding mREITs.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator

    Silver and gold must be bought
    Sep 8 02:23 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refiners sued by Vermont over MTBE [View news story]
    Isn't there a way to have a legal limit to lawyers. I mean the government is rife with them. Do you suppose it is the real seat of our troubles?

    I think soi.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jun 5 05:08 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital - Bargain Or Falling Knife? Questions You Must Ask [View article]
    What is Forest Gump's password? 1forest1. What else could it be?

    LOL. I marvel at the flies good paying stocks attract. Like a fine cut of meat waiting to go on the grill. Nothing wrong with it, just gathers flies if u leave it in the sun. All that glitters.... if its too good.... and so on. Just look at their books for cryin' out loud. NLY is not hurting. They are making money. Do you think Home Depot, or the US Mint is not making money? Where are their profits? I dunno, but it is hard to find a parking spot at HD on the wxends for families hunting stuff for their home. and during the week contractors take up all spots and cash registers with truckloads of stuff. How come HD stock is not skyrocketing, and should have long ago? Why is it so impossible for the protected mREITs to be doing good. All they are doing is buying and selling mortgages and properties. Is it hard to find a bargain at a yard sale and sell it on ebay at a profit? NO! I think that there is too much thinking goin' on. Buy the mREITs, screw the interest rates, and buy a put option on them if ur worried. That okay pilgrim?
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Sep 9 12:19 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad month for gold coming to a close [View news story]
    Again, bad month for who? I am adding to my stash of Au, and lower prices are wonderful. I have some PM stuff and I am like a politician. I want lower prices so I can by more before the main rise coming, and I want higher prices so I can see the stuff I do have appreciate. In reality the real gold trader must not call months good or bad, just look at the long term chart and enjoy the rise. Too much is written about gold and its bugs, detractors and 'is gold money or not'. The real deal is simple, throughout history, gold is the final resting place for real wealth, and getting some rarely upsets folks, even if it temporarily goes down.
    Buy more while things are quiet. You will not be disappointed says I.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Again, read my blog about Horizontal Parallax and you will see everything depends upon your point of view.
    Sellers line up on the left, buyers on the right please, and don't push.
    Nov 29 12:15 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Key Metrics That Show Why We Can't Avoid Recession [View article]
    People giving you a thumbs up on your comment are helping NOT solve the problem. This author has hit the nail on the head, and it is so very true. What the FED is doing is slicing thru our economic jugular.
    Business cannot be legislated and a poor company cannot be made profitable by giving it money, paying its bills and calling it solvent. It is a loser and should be shut down, reorganized and run properly. Or go away, and let another entrepreneur have a go at it. Our fiscal policy flat stinks and the FED is a kingdom of itself. I can't see why good hard working Americans allow this bogus system to continue, and ignore the Constitution. In any case, the Author is correct and this commenter is wrong.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Watch for my article in Market Outlook, if they publish it. It has been submitted an hour ago.
    Nov 24 08:28 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Spikes and Power Struggles [View article]
    Gave you a hard look, and I think you fail to realize or admit to one of the most important aspects of silver. It, like gold, IS a storehouse of wealth in many places. The women of Tibet wear it as their retirement fund in huge belt buckles. In India they also hoard it for money later, and security. IN China precious metals and children are their Social Security system. And constant and marching inflation secures the silver price in one's "need to have" portfolio. The government, this time, cannot call in all the silver and gold. To do so, they would have to pay a real "supply and demand price", and there is not enough dollars in existance to pay that tab.

    I think you miss the reality that it is an inflation hedge, and buddy, we got inflation bearing down on us like a run-a-way steam locomotive.

    Good thoughts, but I feel not complete.
    Capt. Brian
    Aug 8 10:45 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How the Gold Game Could End [View article]
    Well, gee now... Folks, this guy is entitled to his opinion, stop badgering him, no matter how goofy he sounds. Leave him alone, besides, I am trying to buy gold from him. Wait til I relieve him of all his 'scrap metal', THEN you can derail his mind.

    Well, u ask where the sellers come from... heh heh heh

    Capt Brian
    Apr 19 09:09 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Do You 'Like' The Risk/Reward Ratio? [View article]
    Using my standard buy/sell rules, and an added factor of this being a fairly new industry group, and they appear to be in control, I would buy with normal discipline of losing no more than 10%. Stick with a rising stock, unitil normal signs of a top or pending correction. It is harder to ride a winner than to sell a loser. When to sell is harder than when to buy. I use loose stops, mental stops, volume, averages and lastly charts.
    I would class FB in a good area, free of land mines and markets dragging it around. The higher it goes, the more susceptible it is to emotions and profit taking, so keeping that in mind, I would hold thru storms, and only sell when it appears their profitability is waning.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Mar 5 06:57 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Wary Of Prospect Capital [View article]
    I love articles like this, it can serve to scare people out, causing a bit of selling, then people like me, who recognize hogwash when it is thrown on me, simply dry off with the certificates I bought lower due to articles like this. (gives me a higher % with a lower share price.
    Never cease to amaze how we can take English words, line them up any way we want, and due to the sheer number of words available, seem to make sense out of nonsense.

    Welcome to Thursday.

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Sep 13 07:47 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Junior Gold Miners: Is This The Wake Up After A Nightmare? [View article]
    Well, as I lay in the sun, baking my brain more here in Florida, and being an ole treasure seeker, my eyes always light up when gold or silver is the topic of the moment. I am, for clear reasons a bull on the PM's and will remain so until some sanity returns to the market place and the NGM's (not just of America, but the world guys and gals attempting to 'handle' their currencies), begin to use sound practices for money, like not spending more than they are taking in.
    Now the grand high exalted Mr. Grueler has raised up the minimum wage without consulting anyone but his agenda. Again he has issued an edict.
    This increase in wages, is, in my mind, the start of the final item in which inflation needs to get legs, wage increases.
    It will not only increase our taxes, because increased government worker pay is in effect, a tax increase, as the taxpayers pay the payroll of our government workers.
    Bear in mind, the old joke of the three workers, and one called in sick:


    A man stopped at a gas station and, after filling his tank, paid the bill and bought a soft drink. He stood by his car to drink his cola, and he watched a couple of men working along the roadside.

    One man would dig a hole two or three feet deep and then move on. The other man came along behind and filled in the hole. While one was digging a new hole, the other was 25 feet behind filling in the old.

    The men worked right past the guy with the soft drink and went on down the road.

    "I can't stand this," said the man, tossing the can into a trash container and headed down the road toward the men.

    "Hold it, hold it," he said to the workers, "Can you tell me what's going on here with this digging?"

    "Well, we work for the government," one of them said.

    "But one of you is digging a hole and the other fills it up. You're not accomplishing anything. Aren't you wasting the taxpayers' money?"

    "You don't understand, mister," one of the men said, leaning on his shovel and wiping his brow, "Normally there's three of us: me, Rodney, and Mike. I dig the hole, Rodney sticks in the tree, and Mike here puts the dirt back. Now just because Rodney's sick, that don't mean that Mike and me can't work."

    This is really the way we allow it to go. As long as this continues, we will see PM's look up.

    I say, again, looking at the long term chart, PM's have held their place in the uptrend ranks. Not by much mind you, but uptrend it is.

    I use the daily, weekly, and monthly charts to acertain my thinking of up or downtrends.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jan 28 10:35 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why I've Changed My Tune And Decided To Go Long On Shares Of Annaly Capital [View article]
    I think, for retirees like myself, the mREIT market has proven to be a minefield akin to Las Vegas. I have few losses in the market and the whole stage of mREITs has been a total disaster. If they aren't diluting the share price with new issues, they are cutting the dividends, and with interest rates so low, there is only one way for rates to move and that is up.
    I always look at insider buying last. It can be a factor, but there are too many reasons insiders buy and supporting their own stock is not a bad idea for them. (for myriad reasons)
    A more important clue is institutional buying. They put a lot of thought before trading into a black sheep issue.
    Chasing yield is similar to investing in a new gold pan and heading north to Alaska. Yup, there's gold in them there rivers, but just try and find it.
    As with most things timing is critical. Therefore with the spectre of interest rates rising why, in all good sense, would we head into the fray in the face of rising rates. If you look back to old articles regarding REITs, then about all you can find is the 'fact' that the real nemisis of mREITs is rising rates.
    Already we have seen now how sensitive mREITs are to just about everything and it simply is not the place for folks who cannot re-earn their hard earned savings.
    I say, stay out. The Market in general was up more than the mREITs paid and with their falling prices put them way out of contension for market sector winners for the year. If 2014 looks to be no different, then what will help the mREITs now.
    This Captain says, "Steer away from storms,especially if there is a lot of sea room in calmer waters.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    Jan 21 09:52 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment