Brian Bober

How Short Term Supply Constraints Will Impact Booming HEV Markets

I think this article, and commentary, is a great analysis and broaches some important public policy questions. Like shouldn't government incentives focus on results (reducing oil consumption) not specific technologies (lithium-ion, lead-carbon, hybrids, etc). I think that if GM, Ford, or Chrysler sold the Prius it would receive a government subsidy.

However, I think you might be thinking too linearly. Technology doesn't move stair stepped it moves in dramatic paradigm shifts. Given enough investment and smart people working on it I think both battery and solar technology could dramatically tip in 10-15 years so I think the government incentives are more than justified. You're focus on the current and not future state makes hybrids appear too obvious a solution.

I think that removing the heavy gas power train offers significant benefits once battery technology reaches a certain point. There is also a lot of efficiency potential in electric systems versus naturally more inefficient gas systems. I'm not sure who could disagree with your complaint that the government shouldn't pick which battery technology succeeds.

Based on cash for clunkers, rescuing the financial services industry, and the current health care debate the biggest problem appears that public policy will favor industry incumbatants for the foreseeable future. The vast majority of great technology achievements have not occurred within legacy organizations.

So do you think electric vehicles couldn't hit a tipping point in the next 10 years because of the inherent difficulties associated with battery technology or because of the current state of public policy?

In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic, by David Wessel

Thanks for the book overview. Ten years ago I read a similar book that was written over 20 years ago called "Secrets of the Temple, How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country". It is a great book until about page 500 when it starts to turn a little too editorial for my tastes.

Your point - how can one man's opinions wield trillions of taxpayer dollars - seems so apparent that I'm baffled why so little is being done about it.

Monetizing the Debt: Open Market Operations and Statistics

Yes, the Fed is printing money and the Fed is transparent about it; about as transparent as glue. Jansen wins his strawman argument; congratulations. Maybe we can focus on some of the externalities. The "efficiency" and "fairness" of these operations seem to make numerous assumptions. Here are three:

* Primary dealers do not discuss future market actions with the Fed
* The Fed's market actions cannot be predicted by primary dealers
* The Fed would never "bailout" primary dealer's excess inventory

Obviously if any of the three assumptions above are not true than the Fed basically prints money and hands much of it to primary dealers. Quite an enviable - dubiously legal - business. The market isn't necessary fair or efficient....

Monetizing the Debt: Blogosphere Responds

Yes, the Fed is printing money and the Fed is transparent about it; about as transparent as glue. Jansen wins his strawman argument; congratulations. Maybe we can focus on some of the externalities. The "efficiency" and "fairness" of these operations seem to make numerous assumptions. Here are three:

* Primary dealers do not discuss future market actions with the Fed
* The Fed's market actions cannot be predicted by primary dealers
* The Fed would never "bailout" primary dealer's excess inventory

Obviously if any of the three assumptions above are not true than the Fed basically prints money and hands much of it to primary dealers. Quite an enviable - dubiously legal - business. The market isn't necessary fair or efficient....

China Mobile's Seemingly Endless Growth Potential

I wouldn't so easily dismiss the difficulties in rolling out a new wireless standard like TD-SCMA. The 3G rollout will also put a major dent in the company's free cash flow.

For the first time in a decade China Telecom may be competing on a level playing field with its expanded wireless coverage map and a far more well established wireless standard.

I think a much better play is to invest in the wireless equipment providers as a play on the 3G infrastructure investment in China.

Populism vs. Bernanke, Round Two

Backroom dealings rarely lead to good or fair outcomes. Senator I have no recollection is typically spoken by someone with something to hide. HR1207 is going to shed light on some nasty stuff, but that is no argument for not shining the light.

Subprime: What Happens to an Externality Ignored?

The NAR and others did lobby hard and Congress took their money, did their biddings, and for some reason we keep re-electing them.

What the Rortybomb article ignores is that the sub-prime loans first dramatically pushed up the price of homes. Just one question? Is it better to smoke crack indoors?

NARcasting the Future of U.S. Housing Prices: July 2009

An excellent compilation of this very influential organization’s questionable actions. Perhaps Baghdad Bob (Iraq's former information minister) has gone to work for the NAR.

The NAR is a very influential organization with serious influence in Washington and nationwide. The NAR is:
• A self-regulatory organization for real estate brokerage (umm, they failed!)
• in 2005, NAR had the largest Political Action Committee in the United States
• The US' largest trade association and is over 100 years old
• Governs hundreds of local Multiple Listing Services (so they should have had great insight into what was happening)
• since 1990, the US’ 3rd-largest donor to political campaigns (> $30M)
• In 2005, the Dept of Justice filed an antitrust lawsuit against the NAR whose imminent settlement may lower brokerage fees 25-50%

This is just another failing of a major US institution.

Why the Recession Is Over

A well thought out article whose only real deficiency appears to be that it just analyzes the upside. I have no special insight only questions.

1. Supplier deliveries (vendor performance) – up in May
* How much of this is due to China's inventory re-stocking and how much is due to sustainably, re-curing demand?
2. The interest rate spread (long rates minus short rates) – up in May
* Isn't this now reversing somewhat? Is this due to a recovery, the Fed printing money, or a diminished chance of a dooms day scenario?
3. Stock prices – up in May
* This appears to be reversing. Any quick study of reflexivity demonstrates that once thinking participants recognize...
4. Real money supply, adjusted for consumer inflation – up in May
* But what about the velocity of money?
5. Index of consumer expectations – up quite a bit in May
* I believe this depends on which index you are looking.
6. Building permits – up in May
* Does this include seasonal adjustments?
7. Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods – up in May
* How does this reconcile with #10?
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours – down in May
* In the US? Is this still a meaningful indicator?
9. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) – down in May as claims rose
* Unemployment watchers seem to focus on 2nd derivatives and ignore the margin of error; how should this be properly reconciled?
10. Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials – down in May
* How does this reconcile with #7?


Is the question has the US economy bottomed or how will this recovery look (v, u, l, w)?

Is Veoh About to Give Up Too?

"media-savvy players like Time Warner (TWX).."

As Yahoo, IAC Interactive, and the major media companies are learning being media-savvy doesn't mean being internet / tech savy.

With television migrating from dedicated analog signals and cable lines to IP (internet protocol) I imagine (and hope) that more competitors emerge to compete with YouTube and Hulu.

U.S. Economy Mending Faster than Expected

Thanks for cherry picking the good data; I feel better.

Online Job Numbers Signal Hiring Bounce for Some

Thanks for the good news, but isn't Moon Kil right and this is just the continuing migration of HR functions online?

True Unemployment Numbers

Great analysis, it is dis-heartening how looking beyond the headline numbers continues to reveal a rotten situation.

I've have yet to read a good analysis that accounts for the loss of independent contract jobs like mortgage brokers, construction workers, etc. Any insight there?

Jobless Claims as Percent of Labor Force Fall for 3rd Month in a Row

I think the author is correct, in a second derivative world this is a good signal. However, I agree with my fellow commentators that the currently reported data is not comparable to the 70s or 80s.

"Up until the Clinton administration, a discouraged worker was one who was willing, able and ready to work but had given up looking because there were no jobs to be had. The Clinton administration dismissed to the non-reporting netherworld about five million discouraged workers who had been so categorized for more than a year. As of July 2004, the less-than-a-year discouraged workers total 504,000. Adding in the netherworld takes the unemployment rate up to about 12.5%."

source: www.shadowstats.com/ar...

The Clinton administration didn't do this in secret; so I'm continuously surprised how few media outlets (none?) expend the small effort to make apples to apples comparisons.

Updated Case-Shiller 100 Year Real Estate Chart

The green shooters appear to now live in a second derivative glass castle and can soon be expected to promote specific housing markets and anecdotal evidence. Here in Texas (specifically Austin and Dallas) many neighborhoods have never declined and a few are still up yoy.

I'd really like to see this chart broken into industry / demographic / regional markets such as the coasts, New York financial area, Texas, auto market (Michigan, Ohio, Illinois minus Chicago), Bible-belt, etc.

I'd guess this chart dives through 100, not bounces off it.