Brian Bober

How Short Term Supply Constraints Will Impact Booming HEV Markets

I think this article, and commentary, is a great analysis and broaches some important public policy questions. Like shouldn't government incentives focus on results (reducing oil consumption) not specific technologies (lithium-ion, lead-carbon, hybrids, etc). I think that if GM, Ford, or Chrysler sold the Prius it would receive a government subsidy.

However, I think you might be thinking too linearly. Technology doesn't move stair stepped it moves in dramatic paradigm shifts. Given enough investment and smart people working on it I think both battery and solar technology could dramatically tip in 10-15 years so I think the government incentives are more than justified. You're focus on the current and not future state makes hybrids appear too obvious a solution.

I think that removing the heavy gas power train offers significant benefits once battery technology reaches a certain point. There is also a lot of efficiency potential in electric systems versus naturally more inefficient gas systems. I'm not sure who could disagree with your complaint that the government shouldn't pick which battery technology succeeds.

Based on cash for clunkers, rescuing the financial services industry, and the current health care debate the biggest problem appears that public policy will favor industry incumbatants for the foreseeable future. The vast majority of great technology achievements have not occurred within legacy organizations.

So do you think electric vehicles couldn't hit a tipping point in the next 10 years because of the inherent difficulties associated with battery technology or because of the current state of public policy?