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Brian Gilbart

 
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  • How To Profit From September Volatility Spikes (And Get Paid Waiting For Them) [View article]
    I like this trade a lot. Reminds me of a call spread 1x2 that a SocGen or Credit Suisse analyst was recommending last autumn in the VIX (think it was 25/30 CS 1x2). I mean basically the idea is if nothing happenes, make money and if something crazy happens make even more money. Obviously if you pin your long strike you're gonna be hurting, but VXX to 14 seems like a very controlled long term down tick of say .5% to 1% per day for a few weeks, seems unlikely. Good luck on the trade and keep us posted if you roll anything up/down/out. Thanks for the food for thought. Tasty.
    Aug 31 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Paid 27% To Buy Best Buy For $15 Per Share [View article]
    You should be able to write cash secured puts with less than 25K. For example. So for example, you could sell a 10 lot of the 15 strike puts with 15K in your account. If you're assigned on your short puts, you would be buying 1,000 shares for $15 per share. Good luck.
    Aug 27 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ring The Register On These Olympic Games [View article]
    Yes, apologies. "worst" is corrrect. Thank you.
    Aug 10 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The Most Hated Stock Rally In History?' Yet The Strong Price Action Continues [View article]
    Regarding the China Olympics, I submitted a more detailed article that I"m hoping will be published later today. Follow me if you'd like to read it. Studies post-olympic effect since 2000. Very interesting. Seems like a good time to buy some cheap puts.
    Aug 10 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy VIX Calls When They Are Cheap [View article]
    Another option would be to call on a strategy that one of the major broker dealers recommended last year around this time (pun intended). The basic premise is that VIX will stay range bound or will pop significantly in the next few months.

    Basically, you would sell something like the September or October 24/30 Call 1x2 for a small net credit for or even money. Your worse case here is that VIX prints 30 on expiration. You don't pay much if anything and if VIX really spikes to 40+ you're riding the gravy train.

    Personally, I think the author's long call spread is the better option and you just piece out of the trade after a couple of big sell off days which we will eventually see in the next few calendar months.
    Aug 6 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $1,000,000 Life Or Death Challenge: Mostly Death [View article]
    It's a joke dude. Oh my lord. It is not impossible to turn 33,000$ into $1 million... it is just improbable. Additionally when you commit 100% of your capital to a single trade you cannot call that a "strategy" of any kind. It's a punt, it's a gamble, at the very best it's a calculated risk. Good luck with the kidney and working on picking up facetiousness a bit better.
    Jun 27 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where's The Volatility? [View article]
    Barring a major nuclear themed event in North Korea or Iran, I honestly think the next time VXX will be over 30 will be the next time it reverse splits, which I estimate will be approximately 10 to 12 months from now.
    Apr 8 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX Declines, Yet April 20 Calls Rise - Why? [View article]
    So sad to see an ignorant comment like that. How many VIX futures are being sold at $16.30 in April and purchased for $18.64 in May? Why don't you take a look at VXX since inception? Bill is not a moron at all and one of the most informed commentators and traders as pertains to VIX products. Once you've looked up what contango is, why don't you go back to the drawing board NOOB(ie?).
    Mar 27 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back-Testing: Trading Google Options Pre-Earnings [View article]
    What were the deltas of the call and put in the strangle?
    Where were the deltas used in the iron condors? Thanks
    Mar 22 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Intriguing Apple Earnings Trade To Place Tuesday Based On Past History [View article]
    As for the comment, "DON'T get sucked into option trading if you are a retail investor."...

    This is just an ignorant and moronic statement. Options are a powerful tool for hedging, speculation, and portfolio risk management. If you learn to trade options and trade them well, you can make a lot of money for having a correct thesis on the movement and timing of that movement of any optionable underlying.

    If you dont' fully understand the risks of positions you are putting on, then yes I agree you should not be trading options. However, a retail investor should not be discouraged from learning by ridiculous blanket statements.

    I think Kevin is doing a good job of stepping through trades that would appeal to an intermediate to advanced options trader. He is helping people learn about breakevens, max profit and loss, etc. So I appreciate his posts even if they are a bit speculative for my tastes.

    Good luck to all and please feel free to ping me if anyone has any questions about options trading. Cheers, Brian
    Jan 25 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Intriguing Apple Earnings Trade To Place Tuesday Based On Past History [View article]
    If you buy a straddle, you need to back out the implied move from the current ATM implied volatility. If you dont' do that and you just buy a straddle because it's comprised of ATM call and put and you dont' know the implied vol you're buying, you should not be buying a straddle as you could take a bath even if YOUR expected move occurs.
    Jan 24 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Intriguing Apple Earnings Trade To Place Tuesday Based On Past History [View article]
    A very interesting earnings play for sure. A few thinks to note:

    1. The comment "these types of trades only make money for option market makers" is just NOT true. Ignorance of the utility of certain options strategies does not equate to them only being profitable for market makers.

    2. I would tend to agree with Cramer's call on AAPL this time and think that they have rallied so much recently, and the expectations are so high now, that I can see in-line earnings be greeted with a small sell off. Personally, I think aapl trades off $10 to $20 on earnings, and then rallies back over the following weeks.

    3. I have nothing wrong with this strategy but it seems that you could better implement your thesis given that you are ALREADY LONG STOCK. So instead of putting on your put fly (which is in effect selling earnings implied volatility), why would you not just sell ATM or slight upside calls vs your stock position? I think that is your best risk/reward play. For example, if AAPL tanks $40, you take a bath in every which way. Just a thought. I have nothing on. Goodluck.

    Brian
    Jan 24 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A $20,000 Options Portfolio To Trade Earnings: Week Of Jan. 3 [View article]
    I only mean this as constructive criticism but I think that putting 40% of your entire portfolio into just 2 trades in the same industry, on the same week, and as earnings plays is putting you on a path to lose your entire portfolio at that rate.

    Do you have any reasons (channel checks, options flow, etc) to make you think they will beat or miss? What if these stocks just come right in line w/ expectations and don't move?

    At the very least I would recommend sizing down to start? What are your exit points? I've been there man, and I think you need to re-evaluate your strategy.

    Eithe way, looking forward to the results, good luck.
    Brian
    Dec 27 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 30 Days Later: The VXX Short [View article]
    80 days later?
    Aug 23 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Netflix? Questions Remain Regarding Cash Flow and Sustainability of Results [View article]
    Would Netflix gain any content w/ buying a bankrupt Blockbuster???
    Jan 31 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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