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Brian Gilmartin, CFA  

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AA, AAPL, AMAT, AMGN, AMZN, BA, BBBY, BTU, CAT, CME, COH, COST, CSCO, CVS, CVX, DE, F, FB, FCX, FDX, GE, GM, GS, HD, HPQ, IBM, ICE, INTC, JCP, JNJ, JPM, KO, LEN, LOW, M, MA, MAS, MCO, MRK, MS, MSFT, MU, NKE, ORCL, PFE, PG, SBUX, SCHW, SLB, SNDK, SPY, TIF, TOL, TWTR, TXN, UA, V, WBA, WFC, WFM, WMT, X, XLF, XOM
  • Peabody Energy: Free Cash Flow Yield Of 8.5% May Not Matter
    Sun, Jan. 25 BTU 10 Comments

    Summary

    • BTU's dividend yield is 5%.
    • The coal company is still free cash flow positive.
    • This is what a business looks like when the government comes after you.
    • The Coal industry under President Obama reminds me of Tobacco under President Clinton.
    • Current consensus doesn't expect BTU to be profitable again until 2017.
  • Freeport Earnings Preview: Stock Trading Below Tangible Book Value, But Is The Dividend Sustainable?
    Sun, Jan. 25 FCX 28 Comments

    Summary

    • FCX trading below tangible book value.
    • The stock has a 6% dividend yield at its current price.
    • Indonesia continues to be a giant thorn in the side of Freeport management.
    • Dividend may not be sustainable.
    • Either capex or the dividend needs to be reduced, after examining free-cash-flow.
  • Schlumberger Earnings Preview: Just Waiting And Watching Right Now
    Tue, Jan. 13 SLB 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Some brokers still have intrinsic value in low $100's.
    • 2012 low for SLB was $60 area, and crude oil was much higher then.
    • Technically, stock is just now breaking uptrend off '09 low so next stop could be $60 area.
    • The 2008 - 2009 period gives some historical perspective on earnings delta relative to crude oil decline.
  • Toll Earnings Redux/Lennar Earnings Preview: Hombuilders Starting To Find A Bid
    Mon, Jan. 12 LEN Comment!

    Summary

    • After TOL's earnings on 12.10.14, homebuilder is finally free-cash-flow positive.
    • Lennar is best-in-class within mid-price homebuilders.
    • Crude oil price drop will have analysts asking about Texas and Southwest impact on housing starts.
    • LEN could be more impacted than TOL from crude price decline, given price point.
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: 'Ex-Energy' Q4 '14's Expected S&P 500 Earnings Growth Rate Around 7%
    Sun, Jan. 11 SPY, SH, SSO 4 Comments
  • Micron Earnings Redux/Intel Earnings Preview: Muddied Waters For Semis, But Valuations Reasonable
    Fri, Jan. 9 MU 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Micron is probably range-bound between $30 and $36 for at least a quarter.
    • Intel isn't as cheap as it was, trading at 8(x) cash-flow today.
    • Some of sector's bullish sentiment now receding.
    • Both stocks fully valued in the low $40's.
    • Krzanich trying to drive revenue growth for Intel.
  • Alcoa Earnings Preview: Think Alcoa's Intrinsic Value Low-To-Mid $20's
    Mon, Jan. 5 AA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock rose 50% in 2014.
    • Earnings and revenue estimates are still seeing positive revisions.
    • Klaus Kleinfeld and the Alcoa management team should be commended on reinvigorating Alcoa's growth.
    • Lack of free cash flow generation is one fly in a solid fundamental story.
    • Still think intrinsic value for AA is low-to-mid $20's.
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Financials My Top Sector Pick For 2015 - Here Is Why
    Sun, Jan. 4 XLF, FAS, FAZ Comment!
  • Micron Earnings Preview: Our Estimate Is That Stock Still 25% Undervalued
    Dec. 31, 2014 MU 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Fair or intrinsic value now estimated at $45 per share.
    • Supply still constrained and disciplined, while competition seems to remain rational.
    • EPS and revenue estimates still tracking higher.
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Energy Sector's Downward Revisions Continue Distorting S&P 500 Metrics
    Dec. 28, 2014 XLE, SPY 6 Comments
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Energy Sector Earnings Estimates Took Another Hammering This Week
    Dec. 22, 2014 XLE, XLF, XLU 4 Comments
  • 5th Correction Now In 2014 - PE Expansion Could Get Harder Going Forward
    Dec. 20, 2014 SPY 5 Comments
  • Oracle Earnings Preview: Stop The Options Crack, Increase The Dividend
    Dec. 12, 2014 ORCL 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Oracle has missed EPS and revenue consensus the last 3 quarters.
    • Database and hardware businesses still struggling.
    • If ORCL could slow options to insiders, dividend could grow more.
    • Stock is fairly valued at current levels, assuming revenue growth rate doesn't change much.
  • Fed-Ex Earnings Preview: As Good As It Gets For Iconic Package Delivery Company ?
    Dec. 12, 2014 FDX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • FDX seeing incredibly beneficial tailwinds in form of lower fuel costs and stronger economy.
    • Fuel cost savings alone will add significantly to EPS.
    • The 4% q3 '14 GDP and stronger consumer will help as well.
    • Fiscal 2015 guidance will be uber-important.
  • Toll Brothers Earnings Preview: One Of Best Companies In Tough Sector
    Dec. 9, 2014 TOL 1 Comment

    Summary

    • TOL pre-announced better-than-expected revenues in November.
    • High-end homebuilder still executing in tough new home market.
    • New home sales since Housing Depression have been slowly rising.
    • On PEG basis, TOL looks cheap, less so on price-to-tangible book (TBV).
  • Costco Earnings Preview: Juggernaut Retailer, That Could Return More Capital
    Dec. 9, 2014 COST 3 Comments

    Summary

    • COST should see strong tailwind from gasoline price drop.
    • When capex slows COST could return more capital.
    • Retailer has executed exceptionally well.
  • Sector Returns For November 2014
    Dec. 1, 2014 XLP, XLB, XLE 3 Comments
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Could December See Upside Earnings Surprises From Crude Decline Beneficiaries?
    Nov. 30, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 5 Comments
  • Consensus Looking For 10% S&P 500 Earnings Growth In 2015
    Nov. 28, 2014 SPY, IVE, SH 3 Comments
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Q3 '14 Earnings Were Strong; Q4 '14 Will Also Be Very Healthy (Despite Energy)
    Nov. 24, 2014 SPY, IYH, XLK Comment!
  • Bond Market Update: Municipals Outperformed Corporates Handily In 2014
    Nov. 21, 2014 TBF, NUV, MEN 4 Comments
  • Hewlett-Packard Earnings Preview: 4(X) Cash-Flow (Ex-Cash) Has Us Retaining Our Position
    Nov. 20, 2014 HPQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Company split will likely occur later in 2015.
    • Hewlett-Packard has entered the 3D printing business since the last earnings report in August '14.
    • Flat-to-1% revenue growth for fiscal '14 would be a moral victory for Meg.
    • The stock still looks cheap at 4(x) cash flow (ex-cash), but very little growth.
    • I do think Meg was faced with terrible choices keeping HPQ together, and chose to salvage the growth aspect of HPQ.
  • Intel Investor Day Preview: 2015 Expectations Remain Subdued
    Nov. 19, 2014 INTC 18 Comments

    Summary

    • 2014 expected earnings growth will be the best since 2010, and before that 2007.
    • Analysts are looking into 2015 already and expect 2% revenue and 6% EPS growth next year.
    • The Mobile and Communications Group restructuring seems like a positive, but losses will continue.
  • Home Depot Earnings Preview: Return Of Capital Story, As Comps Have Improved Nicely
    Nov. 17, 2014 HD Comment!

    Summary

    • Expense reductions and share repurchases have driven earnings growth.
    • Home Depot has opened just 16 stores since January, 2011.
    • Long-term debt has increased as has HD's debt-to-capital ratio.
    • The stock looks fairly valued, if not modestly overvalued at $98 per share.
  • Cisco Earnings Preview: Either Growth Or CEO Change - Something Has To Give
    Nov. 10, 2014 CSCO 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Fiscal '15 EPS and revenue growth expected to be mid-single-digits.
    • Dividend yield of 3% decent, but capital allocation getting "cramped" .
    • John Chambers, iconic CEO, one of last 1990's CEO's still left standing .
    • My own opinion: Something will have to give over next year.
    • Think stock is fairly-valued at current prices.
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Will FY '15 Be First Ever Year-Over-Year Earnings Decline For Wal-Mart?
    Nov. 10, 2014 WMT Comment!

    Summary

    • No question model is strained by e-commerce.
    • The decline in traffic is pressing the EDLP mantra.
    • News of activist investor late last week will make pre-earnings interesting.
    • WMT is still America's dominant retailer, don't count them out.
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Energy And Basic Material Downward Revisions Exerting Pressure On Forward Estimates
    Nov. 9, 2014 SPY, SH, SSO Comment!
  • Whole Foods Earnings Preview: A Nervous Long, But Still Long
    Nov. 5, 2014 WFM 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Stock has been basing since last earnings report.
    • Sentiment has gone negative - now all the analysts are cautious.
    • WFM facing easier comp's in fiscal 2015.
    • Still the valuation isn't screamingly compelling.
    • WFM is a growth stock, just with slower growth.
  • Alcoa's Investor Day November 4th, And Basic Materials Update
    Nov. 3, 2014 AA, BTU, F Comment!

    Summary

    • Alcoa's Investor Day should be pretty positive; EPS and revenue estimates continue to march higher.
    • Basic Materials as a sector expected to grow earnings 21% in Q314.
    • Ex aluminum and steel, Basic Materials earnings will grow 16.5%.
    • Our two winners: AA and X. Our two dogs: FCX and BTU.
  • S&P 500 Earnings Update: Technology And Industrial Sectors Looking Better, Avoid Energy
    Nov. 2, 2014 SPY, SH, SSO Comment!
  • Exxon Mobil And Chevron Earnings Previews: Be Patient, Estimates Still Falling
    Oct. 29, 2014 CVX, XOM 9 Comments

    Summary

    • XOM looks fairly-valued in the low $90's;
    • CVX looks to be trading at a 10% discount to intrinsic value at $118;
    • We (I) will give the two giants time, at least until early '15 to see how cash-flow and capex shake out.
  • US Steel Reports Tonight: Fabulous Structural Cost Turnaround - 20% Free-Cash Yield
    Oct. 28, 2014 X Comment!

    Summary

    • Carnegie Way driving cost savings.
    • New CEO has transformed broken steel giant.
    • Cash-Flow valuations truly remarkable.