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Brian Gilmartin, CFA

 
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AA, AAPL, AMAT, AMGN, AMZN, BA, BBBY, BTU, CAT, CME, COH, COST, CSCO, CVS, DE, F, FB, FCX, FDX, GE, GM, GS, HD, HPQ, IBM, ICE, INTC, JCP, JNJ, JPM, KO, LEN, LOW, M, MA, MAS, MCO, MRK, MS, MSFT, MU, NKE, ORCL, PFE, PG, SBUX, SCHW, SNDK, SPY, TIF, TOL, TWTR, TXN, UA, V, WAG, WFC, WFM, WMT, X, XLF
  • Comparing EPS Vs. Operating Cash-Flow Per Share (OCFPS) - A Lesson On Earnings Quality
    Mon, Sep. 29 AMZN, TIF, TWTR 24 Comments

    Summary

    • The concept of Earnings per Share (EPS) is not well understood by retail investors.
    • Operating Cash Flow per Share (OCFPS) is less well understood than the concept of EPS.
    • The litmus test for earnings quality is cash-flow coverage of net income.
    • GAAP vs Non-GAAP while important, isn't nearly as telling as cash-flow vs net income.
  • Walgreen Earnings Preview: Fiscal '15 Could Be Bumpy - Waiting On Better Valuation
    Mon, Sep. 29 WAG Comment!

    Summary

    • The inversion premium is out of the stock.
    • WAG is now a cost cutting story;
    • WAG lowered guidance when they announced abandonment of tax inversion.
  • S&P 500 Earnings Update: Finally, A Jump In The Forward Estimate Growth Rate
    Sun, Sep. 28 SPY, SH, SSO Comment!
  • Twitter - EPS And Revenue Estimates Still Headed Higher - Like For A Trade
    Fri, Sep. 26 TWTR 13 Comments

    Summary

    • TWTR is free-cash-flow positive, but just starting to ramp.
    • Revenue and EPS estimates have been headed north.
    • Like the stock to at least $65.
    • Valuation looks absurd, but model just starting to leverage.
  • Ford Investor Day, Monday Sept. 29: Stock Potentially Trading At 30% - 35% Discount To Intrinsic Value
    Thu, Sep. 25 F 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Ford holding an Investor Day, Monday Sept. 29, '14.
    • Stock has been in trading range all year, after December '13 guidance;
    • Europe is recovering;
    • Think intrinsic value is $23 - $25 per share.
    • Risk to stock is the $14 per share price level;
  • Nike Earnings Preview: The Global Brand Juggernaut
    Tue, Sep. 23 NKE Comment!

    Summary

    • One of the premier global consumer brands today.
    • The stock always looks expensive, which global brands always do.
    • Nike returning all free-cash-flow to shareholders.
  • Micron Earnings Preview: Think Intrinsic Value High $30s, Low $40s
    Mon, Sep. 22 MU 30 Comments

    Summary

    • MU's valuation is still reasonable.
    • Love the free-cash-flow generation post-Elpida; 9% current free-cash-flow yield.
    • Sustainability of free-cash-flow is key metric.
    • Forward EPS and revenue estimates still appear conservative.
  • Lennar Earnings Preview: The Quandary Is Decent Growth, Attractive Valuation, But Slowing Orders
    Tue, Sep. 16 LEN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • LEN average estimated EPS and revenue growth for next 3 years is 20% and 19% respectively.
    • LEN is more a mid-range homebuilder vs TOL at the high end.
    • Order growth has been slowing for homebuilders.
  • FedEx Earnings Preview: Returning Capital To Shareholders, But At What Price ?
    Sun, Sep. 14 FDX Comment!

    Summary

    • The share repo should be almost done.
    • Given paltry free-cash-flow, FDX adding debt.
    • Think stock is fairly valued here, although crude oil drop very helpful.
  • Oracle Earnings Preview: Fairly Valued, Is Oracle Now Secular Mid-Single-Digit Grower?
    Fri, Sep. 12 ORCL 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend payout and dollars should increase as % of free-cash-flow.
    • More share repurchases being used to absorb insider sales.
    • I wonder if ORCL now a cash-cow with mid-single-digit secular growth ?
  • Merck Vs. Pfizer: Merck Better Performer, Pfizer Better Risk-Reward
    Tue, Sep. 9 MRK, PFE 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation metrics are very similar.
    • Slight edge to Merck on expected earnings growth.
    • Slight edge to Pfizer on dividend yield and cash flow valuation.
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Q3 '14 Earnings Revisions Return To Normal
    Tue, Sep. 9 Comment!
  • Chart Of 10-Year Treasury Yield Tells You Everything
    Fri, Sep. 5 TBT, TLT, TMV 3 Comments
  • A Quick Look At The S&P 500 By Sector Market Cap
    Tue, Sep. 2 SPY, XLF, XLE 2 Comments
  • Toll Brothers Earnings Preview: Attractive Multiple, But Range Bound For 2 Years Now
    Mon, Sep. 1 TOL Comment!

    Summary

    • Relative to earnings and revenue growth, the stock looks cheap;
    • Stock has been locked in trading range for 2- 3 years.
    • QE3 was targeted at mortgage market - Taper could be having impact.
    • New single-family home data has been gradually slowing.
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Still Looking For $120 For Full-Year 2014 EPS
    Sun, Aug. 31 SPY, SH, SSO 26 Comments
  • Ford Vs. GM: Still Love Ford, But GM At 34%-35% Discount To Intrinsic Value
    Thu, Aug. 28 GM 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Estimated intrinsic value for GM is mid-$50s.
    • Estimated intrinsic value for F is low $20s.
    • Both are trading at discounts to intrinsic value, with GM at a bigger discount.
  • Bernanke Says 2008 Worse Than Great Depression
    Thu, Aug. 28 22 Comments
  • J.C. Penney: Cash-Flow Improvement, But Dilution Is The Risk
    Tue, Aug. 26 JCP 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Looks like a technical breakout today in J.C. Penney.
    • The last earnings report showed a sharp reduction in free cash flow deficit.
    • The retailer still not expected to show a profit until 2018.
  • Hewlett-Packard Earnings Preview: 4X Cash Flow, Ex Balance Sheet Cash - Still A Fan
    Mon, Aug. 18 HPQ 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation still reasonable.
    • Still worried about revenue growth or lack thereof, which is biggest negative to HPQ's story.
    • Resurgent PC business the biggest plus last 3 quarters.
    • Cash-flow and free-cash-flow valuations biggest positive.
  • Home Depot / Lowe's Earnings Previews: Both Retailers Fairly-Valued In A Heavy Housing Market
    Sun, Aug. 17 HD, LOW 1 Comment

    Summary

    • DIY Home Improvement will lag with Housing.
    • Both HD and LOW are close to fairly valued, with a slight edge to LOW.
    • Home Depot less susceptible to shocks; If only LOW could expand operating margin.
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King
    Wed, Aug. 13 JCP 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Rev growth in fiscal Q1 '15 best since mid-2011.
    • April traffic comp was first positive comp in 30 months.
    • Positive cash-flow from operations the next critical step.
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Low Expectations As Traffic Continues To Erode
    Tue, Aug. 12 WMT 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Forward EPS and revenue estimates have been negative.
    • It isn't the international segment but the US segment that is under pressure.
    • Stock pops when US comp's start to rise.
    • WMT "traffic" comps have declined for 6 straight quarters.
  • Cisco Earnings Preview: Stock Fairly Valued Here As Core Business Still Struggles
    Mon, Aug. 11 CSCO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Cisco (CSCO) still stuck in a trading range.
    • Revenue and EPS estimate revisions showing some positive revisions.
    • Core Router and Switching businesses still expecting negative growth.
  • Microsoft Earnings Preview: More Fully Valued Today, But Satya Wasting No Time
    Mon, Jul. 21 MSFT 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Looking at the numbers, revenue versus EPS growth, the job cuts make sense.
    • Revenue estimate and revisions remain positive.
    • Stock is far less undervalued today.
  • Peabody Earnings Preview: How Hated Is Coal? Peabody Requires Patience
    Mon, Jul. 21 BTU 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Stock hasn't made new low since mid-2013.
    • Stock down 3% today.
    • $14.34 is the July '13 low print. $87 - $88 and $73 - $74 were the '08 and March '11 highs.
  • GE Earnings Preview: 'The Incredible Shrinking GE', Or 'Where's The Beef'?
    Thu, Jul. 17 GE 27 Comments

    Summary

    • GE Capital which is closer to 50% of GE EPS, continues to shrink.
    • Is Alsthom the answer?
    • Horribly frustrating stock, but you need the GE's for limiting downside portfolio risk.
  • IBM Earnings Preview: Low Expectations, Revenue Revisions Negative, Stock Modestly Undervalued
    Thu, Jul. 17 IBM 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Quality of earnings and lower cash-flow a big concern.
    • Estimate revisions for '14 and '15 still forecasting low-single-digit revenue growth.
    • The quality of IBM's 2015 EPS goal of $20 per share is being questioned.
  • Intel Earnings Preview: Has The Company Finally Turned A Corner?
    Mon, Jul. 14 INTC 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The June 2014 upside surprise announcement was good news.
    • Ironically, it came from the legacy PC biz.
    • The dividend and free cash flow are key metrics for growth sustainability.
    • Our model indicates INTC still trading at a 17%-20% discount to intrinsic value.
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Valuation Reasonable And Forward Estimates Moving Higher
    Mon, Jul. 14 AAPL 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation is still very reasonable at 15(x) '14 EPS.
    • Margin compression looks to be ending.
    • EPS and revenue estimates starting to turn higher.
  • Goldman/Morgan Earnings Previews: Is The Goldman/Morgan Banking Model A Fading Relic?
    Tue, Jul. 8 GS, MS 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Dodd-Frank and the regulators seem to be targeting volatility.
    • In terms of the financial system, there is a higher premium being put on stability and certainty.
    • Choose asset gatherers which have more consistent and dependable earnings results.
  • Schwab Earnings Preview: Is Schwab's 'Core EPS' $2 Per Share?
    Sat, Jul. 5 SCHW 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Rising stock prices and an interested retail investing base has reinvigorated the stock.
    • The money-market fee waiver is masking about $0.50 in EPS.
    • The dividend and share repo is has been dormant for years - time to return more capital?