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Peabody Energy: Free Cash Flow Yield Of 8.5% May Not Matter
- BTU's dividend yield is 5%.
- The coal company is still free cash flow positive.
- This is what a business looks like when the government comes after you.
- The Coal industry under President Obama reminds me of Tobacco under President Clinton.
- Current consensus doesn't expect BTU to be profitable again until 2017.
Freeport Earnings Preview: Stock Trading Below Tangible Book Value, But Is The Dividend Sustainable?
- FCX trading below tangible book value.
- The stock has a 6% dividend yield at its current price.
- Indonesia continues to be a giant thorn in the side of Freeport management.
- Dividend may not be sustainable.
- Either capex or the dividend needs to be reduced, after examining free-cash-flow.
Schlumberger Earnings Preview: Just Waiting And Watching Right Now
- Some brokers still have intrinsic value in low $100's.
- 2012 low for SLB was $60 area, and crude oil was much higher then.
- Technically, stock is just now breaking uptrend off '09 low so next stop could be $60 area.
- The 2008 - 2009 period gives some historical perspective on earnings delta relative to crude oil decline.
Toll Earnings Redux/Lennar Earnings Preview: Hombuilders Starting To Find A Bid
- After TOL's earnings on 12.10.14, homebuilder is finally free-cash-flow positive.
- Lennar is best-in-class within mid-price homebuilders.
- Crude oil price drop will have analysts asking about Texas and Southwest impact on housing starts.
- LEN could be more impacted than TOL from crude price decline, given price point.
- S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: 'Ex-Energy' Q4 '14's Expected S&P 500 Earnings Growth Rate Around 7%
Micron Earnings Redux/Intel Earnings Preview: Muddied Waters For Semis, But Valuations Reasonable
- Micron is probably range-bound between $30 and $36 for at least a quarter.
- Intel isn't as cheap as it was, trading at 8(x) cash-flow today.
- Some of sector's bullish sentiment now receding.
- Both stocks fully valued in the low $40's.
- Krzanich trying to drive revenue growth for Intel.
Alcoa Earnings Preview: Think Alcoa's Intrinsic Value Low-To-Mid $20's
- The stock rose 50% in 2014.
- Earnings and revenue estimates are still seeing positive revisions.
- Klaus Kleinfeld and the Alcoa management team should be commended on reinvigorating Alcoa's growth.
- Lack of free cash flow generation is one fly in a solid fundamental story.
- Still think intrinsic value for AA is low-to-mid $20's.
- S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Financials My Top Sector Pick For 2015 - Here Is Why
Micron Earnings Preview: Our Estimate Is That Stock Still 25% Undervalued
- Fair or intrinsic value now estimated at $45 per share.
- Supply still constrained and disciplined, while competition seems to remain rational.
- EPS and revenue estimates still tracking higher.
- S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Energy Sector's Downward Revisions Continue Distorting S&P 500 Metrics
- S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Energy Sector Earnings Estimates Took Another Hammering This Week
- 5th Correction Now In 2014 - PE Expansion Could Get Harder Going Forward
Oracle Earnings Preview: Stop The Options Crack, Increase The Dividend
- Oracle has missed EPS and revenue consensus the last 3 quarters.
- Database and hardware businesses still struggling.
- If ORCL could slow options to insiders, dividend could grow more.
- Stock is fairly valued at current levels, assuming revenue growth rate doesn't change much.
Fed-Ex Earnings Preview: As Good As It Gets For Iconic Package Delivery Company ?
- FDX seeing incredibly beneficial tailwinds in form of lower fuel costs and stronger economy.
- Fuel cost savings alone will add significantly to EPS.
- The 4% q3 '14 GDP and stronger consumer will help as well.
- Fiscal 2015 guidance will be uber-important.
Toll Brothers Earnings Preview: One Of Best Companies In Tough Sector
- TOL pre-announced better-than-expected revenues in November.
- High-end homebuilder still executing in tough new home market.
- New home sales since Housing Depression have been slowly rising.
- On PEG basis, TOL looks cheap, less so on price-to-tangible book (TBV).
Costco Earnings Preview: Juggernaut Retailer, That Could Return More Capital
- COST should see strong tailwind from gasoline price drop.
- When capex slows COST could return more capital.
- Retailer has executed exceptionally well.
- Sector Returns For November 2014
- S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Could December See Upside Earnings Surprises From Crude Decline Beneficiaries?
- Consensus Looking For 10% S&P 500 Earnings Growth In 2015
- S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Q3 '14 Earnings Were Strong; Q4 '14 Will Also Be Very Healthy (Despite Energy)
- Bond Market Update: Municipals Outperformed Corporates Handily In 2014
Hewlett-Packard Earnings Preview: 4(X) Cash-Flow (Ex-Cash) Has Us Retaining Our Position
- Company split will likely occur later in 2015.
- Hewlett-Packard has entered the 3D printing business since the last earnings report in August '14.
- Flat-to-1% revenue growth for fiscal '14 would be a moral victory for Meg.
- The stock still looks cheap at 4(x) cash flow (ex-cash), but very little growth.
- I do think Meg was faced with terrible choices keeping HPQ together, and chose to salvage the growth aspect of HPQ.
Intel Investor Day Preview: 2015 Expectations Remain Subdued
- 2014 expected earnings growth will be the best since 2010, and before that 2007.
- Analysts are looking into 2015 already and expect 2% revenue and 6% EPS growth next year.
- The Mobile and Communications Group restructuring seems like a positive, but losses will continue.
Home Depot Earnings Preview: Return Of Capital Story, As Comps Have Improved Nicely
- Expense reductions and share repurchases have driven earnings growth.
- Home Depot has opened just 16 stores since January, 2011.
- Long-term debt has increased as has HD's debt-to-capital ratio.
- The stock looks fairly valued, if not modestly overvalued at $98 per share.
Cisco Earnings Preview: Either Growth Or CEO Change - Something Has To Give
- Fiscal '15 EPS and revenue growth expected to be mid-single-digits.
- Dividend yield of 3% decent, but capital allocation getting "cramped" .
- John Chambers, iconic CEO, one of last 1990's CEO's still left standing .
- My own opinion: Something will have to give over next year.
- Think stock is fairly-valued at current prices.
Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Will FY '15 Be First Ever Year-Over-Year Earnings Decline For Wal-Mart?
- No question model is strained by e-commerce.
- The decline in traffic is pressing the EDLP mantra.
- News of activist investor late last week will make pre-earnings interesting.
- WMT is still America's dominant retailer, don't count them out.
- S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Energy And Basic Material Downward Revisions Exerting Pressure On Forward Estimates
Whole Foods Earnings Preview: A Nervous Long, But Still Long
- Stock has been basing since last earnings report.
- Sentiment has gone negative - now all the analysts are cautious.
- WFM facing easier comp's in fiscal 2015.
- Still the valuation isn't screamingly compelling.
- WFM is a growth stock, just with slower growth.
Alcoa's Investor Day November 4th, And Basic Materials Update
- Alcoa's Investor Day should be pretty positive; EPS and revenue estimates continue to march higher.
- Basic Materials as a sector expected to grow earnings 21% in Q314.
- Ex aluminum and steel, Basic Materials earnings will grow 16.5%.
- Our two winners: AA and X. Our two dogs: FCX and BTU.
- S&P 500 Earnings Update: Technology And Industrial Sectors Looking Better, Avoid Energy
Exxon Mobil And Chevron Earnings Previews: Be Patient, Estimates Still Falling
- XOM looks fairly-valued in the low $90's;
- CVX looks to be trading at a 10% discount to intrinsic value at $118;
- We (I) will give the two giants time, at least until early '15 to see how cash-flow and capex shake out.
US Steel Reports Tonight: Fabulous Structural Cost Turnaround - 20% Free-Cash Yield
- Carnegie Way driving cost savings.
- New CEO has transformed broken steel giant.
- Cash-Flow valuations truly remarkable.