View as an RSS Feed
View Brian Gilmartin, CFA's Articles BY TICKER:
Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Stock Fairly Valued But An Inflation Hedge
- Look for a stronger first quarter, relative to a tough Q4 '14;
- Some moderate inflation would help the retailer;
- Stock is fairly valued at $80 per share;
- I would expect WMT and retail in general to trade better into the 2014 summer.
Whole Foods Earnings Preview: Skepticism Abounds, But We Still Like The Retailer
- Specialty/Organic grocery retail has seen a flood of new competition.
- Whole Foods has long been the dominant player in the space.
- Analysts have turned skeptical on the stock.
- Whole Foods' valuation is cheaper, but is it now GARP ?
Exxon And Chevron Earnings Previews: Low Expectations
- Exxon hasn't seen y/y revenue growth since June, 2012.
- Expectations are low for both stocks.
- Both companies benefit from 3% plus global GDP growth.
Ford Earnings Preview: Stock 30% - 35% Undervalued; Hold For 2015 Growth
- Start-up or launch costs crushed 2014 EPS estimates.
- Europe improving.
- Think intrinsic value closer to $23 - $25 per share.
Procter & Gamble Earnings Preview: Classic Defensive Staples Stock
- Organic revenue and volume growth improving.
- Currency volatility and Ukraine in Q1 '14 likely impacted PG.
- Sale of Pet Foods business a plus.
- PG's longer-term issue is to grow volume while not crushing margins..
Facebook Earnings Preview: Still All About Mobile Ad Revenue
- FB up 102% in 2013; up 10% year-to-date in 2014.
- Investors have to be wondering, what is the next driver?
- Comps get tougher after July '14 quarter.
Microsoft Earnings Preview: Software Giant Transitions From Value To Growth
- 43% one-year return.
- Satya Nadella hitting all the right notes.
- The missing metrics are upward revisions to forward EPS and revenue estimates (i.e. faster growth).
Boeing Earnings Preview: Multi-Year, Secular Airplane Cycle Intact
- Company is in the sweet spot of the cycle.
- Free-cash-flow generation improving, a key metric.
- Recent dividend and share repo increase a shareholder plus.
Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2014 Tough; Fiscal 2015 Looking Better
- Forward estimates indicate AAPL is now a mid to high-single-digit grower.
- Fiscal 2015 looking slightly better in terms of EPS growth.
- The big question remains how the $176 per share in cash is going to be spent.
GE Earnings Preview: Less Undervalued, But Still Caught Between A Rock And A Rock
- Down 10% year-to-date after stock rose 34% in 2013.
- Non-finance growth is still a longer-term issue.
- Stock still at discount to intrinsic value.
- Will Jeff Immelt continue to lead GE?
IBM Earnings Preview: Technically Better, Still Worried About Revenue Growth
- Big Blue has improved technically.
- Accenture and Oracle leading indicators for IBM's consulting and software biz.
- Forward guidance will be paramount.
Bed Bath & Beyond Earnings Redux: Like The Retailer's Cash Flow, Still Waiting On Stock
- Big share repo in Q4 allowed BBBY to meet EPS estimate.
- Margins narrowed again.
- BBBY generating a lot of cash.
Micron/Alcoa Earnings Redux: Both Companies Seeing Positive EPS Revisions
- Both are commodity businesses and both have a checkered past.
- Both stocks (and companies) look to have turned the corner.
- Alcoa fits better with '14's themes of Commodity and Value.
Intel Earnings Preview: Intel Needs Revenue Growth And A Note Of Caution
- Two consecutive quarters of revenue growth.
- Old Tech working in 2014, but a lot of insiders selling?
- One aspect to share - repo and cash-flow is worrisome.
Quick Sneak Peak At Bed Bath's Earnings Preview: Like It Better In The High $50s Or $60 Range
- Estimates still being revised lower.
- Couponing and resurgent JCP Home Business could hurt.
- Cash-flow valuation not attractive.
JPMorgan/Wells Fargo Earnings Previews: Revenue Growth Remains An Issue
- Revenue growth remains flat, more expense reductions needed.
- Loan-loss reserves are driving EPS growth.
- Top-line growth is a sector issue, not just JPM and WFC.
Alcoa Earnings Preview: Technical Breakout - Can Fundamentals Follow?
- AA EPS and revenue estimates have stabilized.
- The shuttering of more smelting capacity is troubling.
- Cash-flow has improved, Kleinfeld focusing on cost structure.
Exxon Vs. Chevron: Cash-Flow Statements Are Stretched Like Bungee Cords
- The cash-flow statement analysis is unsettling.
- Chevron is more oversold and trading at 6(x) cash-flow.
- Exxon is still free-cash-flow positive.
Micron Earnings Preview: Estimate Revisions Positive With 8% FCF Yield
- Revenue and EPS estimate revisions continue to be positive.
- MU currently sports 7%-8% free-cash-flow yield.
- Internal intrinsic value estimate near $40 per share.
Walgreen Earnings Preview: Our Worst Trade Ever
- WAG seems overvalued at $65.
- WAG weathered tough Midwest winter pretty well.
- Business is changing.
FedEx Earnings Preview: What Happens After Stock Repo Is Done?
- Share repo is primary stock catalyst but just getting started.
- FDX is a return to global growth play.
- Express segment remains a drag on returns.
What We've Sold So Far In 2014
- Banks and brokers ain't what they used to be.
- Longer-term overbought sectors are a worry.
- KO - a great company and brand that isn't a great stock.
Lennar Earnings Preview: Fundamentals Looks Great, Technicals Are Worrisome
- Lennar remains best-in-breed in mid-range new home construction.
- Forward growth estimates are expecting robust revenue and EPS growth.
- The technicals of Lennar and homebuilders look somewhat ominous.
Oracle Earnings Preview: Stock Fairly Valued; Dividend Could Double
- Without a change in revenue growth, stock looks fairly valued.
- Larry Ellison in my opinion is one of premier CEO's in technology.
- Dividend could double over next few years.
- Costco Earnings Preview: Superb Execution, Perennially Overvalued
- Hewlett-Packard Earnings Summary: Turnaround Gains Steam, Stock Is Still Cheap
- J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: It Is About Operating Cash Flow
- Whole Foods Redux: Stock Still At 40%-50% Discount To Intrinsic Value
- Home Depot Earnings Preview: 15X Cash-Flow Valuation And How Long Can Share Repos Last?
- Hewlett-Packard Earnings Preview: At Technical Resistance, But Valuation Very Reasonable
- Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Headwinds Need To Subside For Consistency To Resume
- Coca-Cola Earnings Preview: Signs Of A Pulse With Green Mountain Deal