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Facebook Earnings Preview: P/E Is 1X Average Forward Growth Rate But Sentiment Very Bullish
- Mobile Ad revenue was the catalyst to drive stock in '13 from mid $20's to mid $50's.
- Wondering about next catalyst - monetization of user base?
- Sentiment now very bullish, complete opposite of mid 2013 with stock in the mid $20's.
- Absolute valuation of FB is quite rich, relative valuation to growth not so much.
Twitter Earnings Preview: Still A Fan Into Q3 '14 Earnings Results
- We like Twitter as a trade to mid-$60's, after that depends on the fundamentals.
- Cash-flow is just starting to accelerate.
- I thought bringing on Anthony Noto as CFO was a very smart move.
Microsoft Earnings Preview: Transitioning From Deep Value, Capital Allocation Story To Growth Stock ?
- MSFT (the stock) was a stalwart during this recent 8% correction.
- The price action is telling me Satya Nadella still getting the benefit of the doubt.
- MSFT's Cloud traction more critical than ever.
Boeing Earnings Preview: For Longer-Term Investors, Think Stock Still 25% Undervalued
- Slowing Non-US economies possibly taking a toll;
- Secular aircraft demand cycle still intact.
- After doubling in 2013, BA range-bound this year.
- As 2014 EPS estimates have risen, 2015's are stable, so slower growth expected.
- Drilling Down Into The Energy Sector
IBM Earnings Preview: Longer Term, Big Blue Needs Revenue Growth
- Consensus 2015 EPS growth still looking for 11% or low-double-digits.
- Revenue growth remains an issue.
- Like stock into year-end '14, Longer term, IBM needs revenue growth.
Energy Sector: A Look Ahead Before Weekend Revisions
Oct. 17, 2014 • 6 Comments
Intel Earnings Preview: Consensus EPS And Revenue Estimates Headed Higher
- INTC's EPS and revenue estimates have started to turn higher.
- The PC Group showed 6% revenue and 41% operating income growth in Q2 2014.
- Has gross margin peaked ? 64.5% in q2 '14 - best since late 2011.
- INTC, like a lot of large-cap tech companies, hung up on financial crack of stock options.
- Dividend growth is limited with free cash spent on dilution prevention.
Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2015 Looks Solid, But What About After That?
- Fiscal 2015 will see better growth, but the longer-term issue of secular growth remains.
- The new products are intriguing, but the IBM arrangement could be far more important.
- The stock, despite the good product news in Sept. 2014, couldn't break out above the Sept. 2012 high.
- The valuation remains very reasonable - we'd buy more AAPL in mid $80s.
- As every Apple product segment is commoditized, how can margins be maintained?
- More On S&P 500 Earnings And A Look At Revenue Estimates By Sector
- The Pessimism Around Q3 And Q4 2014 Earnings Seems Unwarranted
Alcoa Earnings Preview: 2015 Estimates Look Robust
- Fundamentals still improving - LME aluminum price up mid-single-digits in Q13 '14 alone.
- Alcoa continues its shift to value-added segments and away from commodity businesses;
- Convertible preferred issued by AA in September '14.
- Would like to see company free-cash-flow positive with all the positive developments.
- EPS and revenue estimates still being revised upward.
Comparing EPS Vs. Operating Cash-Flow Per Share (OCFPS) - A Lesson On Earnings Quality
- The concept of Earnings per Share (EPS) is not well understood by retail investors.
- Operating Cash Flow per Share (OCFPS) is less well understood than the concept of EPS.
- The litmus test for earnings quality is cash-flow coverage of net income.
- GAAP vs Non-GAAP while important, isn't nearly as telling as cash-flow vs net income.
Walgreen Earnings Preview: Fiscal '15 Could Be Bumpy - Waiting On Better Valuation
- The inversion premium is out of the stock.
- WAG is now a cost cutting story;
- WAG lowered guidance when they announced abandonment of tax inversion.
- S&P 500 Earnings Update: Finally, A Jump In The Forward Estimate Growth Rate
Twitter - EPS And Revenue Estimates Still Headed Higher - Like For A Trade
- TWTR is free-cash-flow positive, but just starting to ramp.
- Revenue and EPS estimates have been headed north.
- Like the stock to at least $65.
- Valuation looks absurd, but model just starting to leverage.
Ford Investor Day, Monday Sept. 29: Stock Potentially Trading At 30% - 35% Discount To Intrinsic Value
- Ford holding an Investor Day, Monday Sept. 29, '14.
- Stock has been in trading range all year, after December '13 guidance;
- Europe is recovering;
- Think intrinsic value is $23 - $25 per share.
- Risk to stock is the $14 per share price level;
Nike Earnings Preview: The Global Brand Juggernaut
- One of the premier global consumer brands today.
- The stock always looks expensive, which global brands always do.
- Nike returning all free-cash-flow to shareholders.
Micron Earnings Preview: Think Intrinsic Value High $30s, Low $40s
- MU's valuation is still reasonable.
- Love the free-cash-flow generation post-Elpida; 9% current free-cash-flow yield.
- Sustainability of free-cash-flow is key metric.
- Forward EPS and revenue estimates still appear conservative.
Lennar Earnings Preview: The Quandary Is Decent Growth, Attractive Valuation, But Slowing Orders
- LEN average estimated EPS and revenue growth for next 3 years is 20% and 19% respectively.
- LEN is more a mid-range homebuilder vs TOL at the high end.
- Order growth has been slowing for homebuilders.
FedEx Earnings Preview: Returning Capital To Shareholders, But At What Price ?
- The share repo should be almost done.
- Given paltry free-cash-flow, FDX adding debt.
- Think stock is fairly valued here, although crude oil drop very helpful.
Oracle Earnings Preview: Fairly Valued, Is Oracle Now Secular Mid-Single-Digit Grower?
- Dividend payout and dollars should increase as % of free-cash-flow.
- More share repurchases being used to absorb insider sales.
- I wonder if ORCL now a cash-cow with mid-single-digit secular growth ?
Merck Vs. Pfizer: Merck Better Performer, Pfizer Better Risk-Reward
- Valuation metrics are very similar.
- Slight edge to Merck on expected earnings growth.
- Slight edge to Pfizer on dividend yield and cash flow valuation.
S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Q3 '14 Earnings Revisions Return To Normal
Sep. 9, 2014 • Comment!
- Chart Of 10-Year Treasury Yield Tells You Everything
- A Quick Look At The S&P 500 By Sector Market Cap
Toll Brothers Earnings Preview: Attractive Multiple, But Range Bound For 2 Years Now
- Relative to earnings and revenue growth, the stock looks cheap;
- Stock has been locked in trading range for 2- 3 years.
- QE3 was targeted at mortgage market - Taper could be having impact.
- New single-family home data has been gradually slowing.
- S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Still Looking For $120 For Full-Year 2014 EPS
Ford Vs. GM: Still Love Ford, But GM At 34%-35% Discount To Intrinsic Value
- Estimated intrinsic value for GM is mid-$50s.
- Estimated intrinsic value for F is low $20s.
- Both are trading at discounts to intrinsic value, with GM at a bigger discount.
Bernanke Says 2008 Worse Than Great Depression
Aug. 28, 2014 • 22 Comments
J.C. Penney: Cash-Flow Improvement, But Dilution Is The Risk
- Looks like a technical breakout today in J.C. Penney.
- The last earnings report showed a sharp reduction in free cash flow deficit.
- The retailer still not expected to show a profit until 2018.
Hewlett-Packard Earnings Preview: 4X Cash Flow, Ex Balance Sheet Cash - Still A Fan
- Valuation still reasonable.
- Still worried about revenue growth or lack thereof, which is biggest negative to HPQ's story.
- Resurgent PC business the biggest plus last 3 quarters.
- Cash-flow and free-cash-flow valuations biggest positive.