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Hewlett-Packard Earnings Preview: 4(X) Cash-Flow (Ex-Cash) Has Us Retaining Our Position
- Company split will likely occur later in 2015.
- Hewlett-Packard has entered the 3D printing business since the last earnings report in August '14.
- Flat-to-1% revenue growth for fiscal '14 would be a moral victory for Meg.
- The stock still looks cheap at 4(x) cash flow (ex-cash), but very little growth.
- I do think Meg was faced with terrible choices keeping HPQ together, and chose to salvage the growth aspect of HPQ.
Intel Investor Day Preview: 2015 Expectations Remain Subdued
- 2014 expected earnings growth will be the best since 2010, and before that 2007.
- Analysts are looking into 2015 already and expect 2% revenue and 6% EPS growth next year.
- The Mobile and Communications Group restructuring seems like a positive, but losses will continue.
Home Depot Earnings Preview: Return Of Capital Story, As Comps Have Improved Nicely
- Expense reductions and share repurchases have driven earnings growth.
- Home Depot has opened just 16 stores since January, 2011.
- Long-term debt has increased as has HD's debt-to-capital ratio.
- The stock looks fairly valued, if not modestly overvalued at $98 per share.
Cisco Earnings Preview: Either Growth Or CEO Change - Something Has To Give
- Fiscal '15 EPS and revenue growth expected to be mid-single-digits.
- Dividend yield of 3% decent, but capital allocation getting "cramped" .
- John Chambers, iconic CEO, one of last 1990's CEO's still left standing .
- My own opinion: Something will have to give over next year.
- Think stock is fairly-valued at current prices.
Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Will FY '15 Be First Ever Year-Over-Year Earnings Decline For Wal-Mart?
- No question model is strained by e-commerce.
- The decline in traffic is pressing the EDLP mantra.
- News of activist investor late last week will make pre-earnings interesting.
- WMT is still America's dominant retailer, don't count them out.
- S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Energy And Basic Material Downward Revisions Exerting Pressure On Forward Estimates
Whole Foods Earnings Preview: A Nervous Long, But Still Long
- Stock has been basing since last earnings report.
- Sentiment has gone negative - now all the analysts are cautious.
- WFM facing easier comp's in fiscal 2015.
- Still the valuation isn't screamingly compelling.
- WFM is a growth stock, just with slower growth.
Alcoa's Investor Day November 4th, And Basic Materials Update
- Alcoa's Investor Day should be pretty positive; EPS and revenue estimates continue to march higher.
- Basic Materials as a sector expected to grow earnings 21% in Q314.
- Ex aluminum and steel, Basic Materials earnings will grow 16.5%.
- Our two winners: AA and X. Our two dogs: FCX and BTU.
- S&P 500 Earnings Update: Technology And Industrial Sectors Looking Better, Avoid Energy
Exxon Mobil And Chevron Earnings Previews: Be Patient, Estimates Still Falling
- XOM looks fairly-valued in the low $90's;
- CVX looks to be trading at a 10% discount to intrinsic value at $118;
- We (I) will give the two giants time, at least until early '15 to see how cash-flow and capex shake out.
US Steel Reports Tonight: Fabulous Structural Cost Turnaround - 20% Free-Cash Yield
- Carnegie Way driving cost savings.
- New CEO has transformed broken steel giant.
- Cash-Flow valuations truly remarkable.
Facebook Earnings Preview: P/E Is 1X Average Forward Growth Rate But Sentiment Very Bullish
- Mobile Ad revenue was the catalyst to drive stock in '13 from mid $20's to mid $50's.
- Wondering about next catalyst - monetization of user base?
- Sentiment now very bullish, complete opposite of mid 2013 with stock in the mid $20's.
- Absolute valuation of FB is quite rich, relative valuation to growth not so much.
Twitter Earnings Preview: Still A Fan Into Q3 '14 Earnings Results
- We like Twitter as a trade to mid-$60's, after that depends on the fundamentals.
- Cash-flow is just starting to accelerate.
- I thought bringing on Anthony Noto as CFO was a very smart move.
Microsoft Earnings Preview: Transitioning From Deep Value, Capital Allocation Story To Growth Stock ?
- MSFT (the stock) was a stalwart during this recent 8% correction.
- The price action is telling me Satya Nadella still getting the benefit of the doubt.
- MSFT's Cloud traction more critical than ever.
Boeing Earnings Preview: For Longer-Term Investors, Think Stock Still 25% Undervalued
- Slowing Non-US economies possibly taking a toll;
- Secular aircraft demand cycle still intact.
- After doubling in 2013, BA range-bound this year.
- As 2014 EPS estimates have risen, 2015's are stable, so slower growth expected.
- Drilling Down Into The Energy Sector
IBM Earnings Preview: Longer Term, Big Blue Needs Revenue Growth
- Consensus 2015 EPS growth still looking for 11% or low-double-digits.
- Revenue growth remains an issue.
- Like stock into year-end '14, Longer term, IBM needs revenue growth.
Energy Sector: A Look Ahead Before Weekend Revisions
Oct. 17, 2014 • 6 Comments
Intel Earnings Preview: Consensus EPS And Revenue Estimates Headed Higher
- INTC's EPS and revenue estimates have started to turn higher.
- The PC Group showed 6% revenue and 41% operating income growth in Q2 2014.
- Has gross margin peaked ? 64.5% in q2 '14 - best since late 2011.
- INTC, like a lot of large-cap tech companies, hung up on financial crack of stock options.
- Dividend growth is limited with free cash spent on dilution prevention.
Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2015 Looks Solid, But What About After That?
- Fiscal 2015 will see better growth, but the longer-term issue of secular growth remains.
- The new products are intriguing, but the IBM arrangement could be far more important.
- The stock, despite the good product news in Sept. 2014, couldn't break out above the Sept. 2012 high.
- The valuation remains very reasonable - we'd buy more AAPL in mid $80s.
- As every Apple product segment is commoditized, how can margins be maintained?
- More On S&P 500 Earnings And A Look At Revenue Estimates By Sector
- The Pessimism Around Q3 And Q4 2014 Earnings Seems Unwarranted
Alcoa Earnings Preview: 2015 Estimates Look Robust
- Fundamentals still improving - LME aluminum price up mid-single-digits in Q13 '14 alone.
- Alcoa continues its shift to value-added segments and away from commodity businesses;
- Convertible preferred issued by AA in September '14.
- Would like to see company free-cash-flow positive with all the positive developments.
- EPS and revenue estimates still being revised upward.
Comparing EPS Vs. Operating Cash-Flow Per Share (OCFPS) - A Lesson On Earnings Quality
- The concept of Earnings per Share (EPS) is not well understood by retail investors.
- Operating Cash Flow per Share (OCFPS) is less well understood than the concept of EPS.
- The litmus test for earnings quality is cash-flow coverage of net income.
- GAAP vs Non-GAAP while important, isn't nearly as telling as cash-flow vs net income.
Walgreen Earnings Preview: Fiscal '15 Could Be Bumpy - Waiting On Better Valuation
- The inversion premium is out of the stock.
- WAG is now a cost cutting story;
- WAG lowered guidance when they announced abandonment of tax inversion.
- S&P 500 Earnings Update: Finally, A Jump In The Forward Estimate Growth Rate
Twitter - EPS And Revenue Estimates Still Headed Higher - Like For A Trade
- TWTR is free-cash-flow positive, but just starting to ramp.
- Revenue and EPS estimates have been headed north.
- Like the stock to at least $65.
- Valuation looks absurd, but model just starting to leverage.
Ford Investor Day, Monday Sept. 29: Stock Potentially Trading At 30% - 35% Discount To Intrinsic Value
- Ford holding an Investor Day, Monday Sept. 29, '14.
- Stock has been in trading range all year, after December '13 guidance;
- Europe is recovering;
- Think intrinsic value is $23 - $25 per share.
- Risk to stock is the $14 per share price level;
Nike Earnings Preview: The Global Brand Juggernaut
- One of the premier global consumer brands today.
- The stock always looks expensive, which global brands always do.
- Nike returning all free-cash-flow to shareholders.
Micron Earnings Preview: Think Intrinsic Value High $30s, Low $40s
- MU's valuation is still reasonable.
- Love the free-cash-flow generation post-Elpida; 9% current free-cash-flow yield.
- Sustainability of free-cash-flow is key metric.
- Forward EPS and revenue estimates still appear conservative.
Lennar Earnings Preview: The Quandary Is Decent Growth, Attractive Valuation, But Slowing Orders
- LEN average estimated EPS and revenue growth for next 3 years is 20% and 19% respectively.
- LEN is more a mid-range homebuilder vs TOL at the high end.
- Order growth has been slowing for homebuilders.
FedEx Earnings Preview: Returning Capital To Shareholders, But At What Price ?
- The share repo should be almost done.
- Given paltry free-cash-flow, FDX adding debt.
- Think stock is fairly valued here, although crude oil drop very helpful.