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Brian Gilmartin, CFA  

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  • Costco Earnings Preview: Superb Execution, Still Overvalued, Potential Capital Return Story [View article]
    agreed, costco fan. shop their regularly.
    Mar 5, 2015. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Costco Earnings Preview: Superb Execution, Still Overvalued, Potential Capital Return Story [View article]
    All good points, booya21. good summary. Good quarter from COST this am. 8% comp's ex fx and gas are HUGE, have to be some of the best in retail.
    Mar 5, 2015. 09:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Costco Earnings Preview: Superb Execution, Still Overvalued, Potential Capital Return Story [View article]
    all pertinent comments. I've modeled COST since late 1990's, in Feb '02 stock was at $39, down from 2000 high of mid $50's and the stock was trading at a 39(x) P.E. 2 of the 3 readers see never-ending growth, which always makes me leery. The sentiment around COST is very bullish currently. Also, i didnt say i wouldnt own it, i typically like to see an oversold reading on a weekly chart, which would be a heft correction, but all are valid points. Thanks for the reasoned and measured responses.
    Mar 4, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: 2015 EPS Expectations Are Simply Too Low [View article]
    Yes, econ data has been weaker for sure. A friend of mine Bob Lang, who writes for TheStreet and does his own radio show at http://bit.ly/17NNyLI have talked about 2014's first quarter. By comparison that should help q1 '15. The last two Midwest and Northeast winters have been brutal.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: 2015 EPS Expectations Are Simply Too Low [View article]
    David, i read Factset's earnings work every week. John Butters does a great job. He used to do the equivalent at Thomson. Factset's expected growth rates for earnings, always lower than T/R's (thomson reuters). Their revenue growth typically tracks pretty closely. Ive tried to pry out of both sides what the difference might be in terms of earnings methodology and both sides are pretty tight-lipped. The other variable is that analysts can use operating vs book, or what is traditionally GAAP vs Non-GAAP in terms of EPS. The traditional knee-jerk reaction is that Non-GAAP is always bad or "gamed" but that isnt always the case either. Ive highlighted the difference between T/R and Factset to readers many times over the years just so readers know i'm being as intellectually honest as i can in noting the discrepancy. There are some other sources too, I am looking at to further vet the methodologies and to show readers the most accurate data available.
    Mar 2, 2015. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Earnings Preview: Given Valuation And Price Targets, HPQ Looks 20% Undervalued [View article]
    well they are intended that way, Alpine. i enjoy writing for S/A and the readers and the fact of the matter is writing the earnings previews imposes a discipline on me to lay out the strengths and weaknesses and then draw a valuation conclusion. I typically leave the headline and bullet points blank until the very end and allow the valuation metrics to unfold as the preview is written. But I do see your point, thanks for the feedback.

    One final point - each write-up typically includes trends in forward EPS and revenue estimates, which kind of flies in the face of your " financial rearview visioning". The trends in forward estimates get a lot of weighting in my analysis.
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Earnings Preview: Given Valuation And Price Targets, HPQ Looks 20% Undervalued [View article]
    To Bob and Alpine, reread the headline of the HPQ article above. I didn't say the stock would jump 20% after it reported earnings. I did say I thought the stock was 20% undervalued. Big difference. And as to Cisco Alpine, I stand by the article and the logic. Too many readers think that financial analysis and valuation is some kind of a trading strategy: it isn't, not by a long shot. CSCO's tepid growth hasn't changed, and they are STILL, 15 years later issuing a ton of stock options, and with today's net neutrality headline, I think the case is reinforced.

    However you both have hit on a key topic: my followers spike every time I do an earnings preview with a bullish or bearish tilt and then the stock moves that way post earnings, or in this case moves the other direction. I've made it clear that I will sit on positions for clients for years, and yet I still get the hate mail post-earnings, which readers have a right to do.

    Readers do need to understand the difference between investing and trading, and investing is usually valuation driven. If you look at my other articles written on HPQ, my thesis has been clear, (and I've gotten it right up till Tuesday night) and for now it remains unchanged, although I thought Meg laid an egg, and the split might be a huge distraction internally.

    Thanks for the thoughts.
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Steel Is One Of The Few Bargains Left In This Market [View article]
    Agree, Hawk. the valuation metrics are incredibly cheap as well.
    Feb 25, 2015. 10:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Earnings Preview: Given Valuation And Price Targets, HPQ Looks 20% Undervalued [View article]
    wow, gutsy comment, Bob, made after the earnings report. Seriously though, the 200 day moving average is $36. The stock should find some support right in this area, which looks like the area HPQ will open. at 4.5(x) cash-flow the stock is not expensive by any means.
    Feb 25, 2015. 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Earnings Preview: Expecting Slowing Growth, But Cash-Flow Finally Improving [View article]
    After posting the article, one aspect i neglected to caution readers about is potential slowing home sales in energy-intensive regions like the South and West, which is 38% of TOL's revenue and 63% of pre-tax income. there is no "southwest" region specifically identified, so not all of the South and West individually could be energy intensive, but it bears a mention. Lennar specifically breaks out the Houston area in their quarterly geographic detail.
    Feb 23, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Traffic Has Declined For 8 Consecutive Quarters [View article]
    good traffic for WMT US stores, best in 9 quarters. many positives to the quarter, but very poor or conservative guidance. Rev's missed too. Currency cost WMT $5 bl in fiscal '15, almost half or $2.6 bl in the 4th quarter. Still like the stock, havent changed the position. looking to add more if gets materially weaker.
    Feb 19, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Traffic Has Declined For 8 Consecutive Quarters [View article]
    GJC, sorry (again) that is the detail on WMT US comp's which is 60% of WMT's total revenue and 72% of total operating income as of the Oct '14 qtr.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Traffic Has Declined For 8 Consecutive Quarters [View article]
    talking retail specifically, MM, but the argument makes sense.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Traffic Has Declined For 8 Consecutive Quarters [View article]
    Sorry GJC, WMT US and SAMs comps
    Feb 16, 2015. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: Traffic Has Declined For 8 Consecutive Quarters [View article]
    Retread the article RC. I talked about the better comps at the smaller neighborhood stores.
    Feb 16, 2015. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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