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Brian Gilmartin, CFA  

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  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: The Retail Death Match Continues [View article]
    Sorry, 80's and 90's too, PRG.
    May 18, 2015. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: The Retail Death Match Continues [View article]
    Good point, DJ. the way i read the article I thought it was China-oriented, which means very lax if any anti-trust law. 3 billion Chinese is a lot more than 330 million Americans.
    May 17, 2015. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: The Retail Death Match Continues [View article]
    Besides Redhat, after reading my own article, I may even buy a little before Tuesday. The tenor of the article was probably more bearish than deserved. WMT is opening these Neighborhood Markets and the comp's are pretty decent. There are two in Chicago, probably more now, and the Neighborhood Markets I have been in are pretty efficient. Thanks again for the polite question.
    May 17, 2015. 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: The Retail Death Match Continues [View article]
    well, to try and time it perfectly RedHat is a dangerous game. As an investor you can never be sure when the turn will come, and in what form it will take. With all due respect you are trying to pin me down to "absolutes", while as an investor I dwell in the world of "relative" judgments. WMT's fundamentals are lousy, but as i pointed out in the article I'll risk 10% downside as long as the stock stays above the January, 2000 peak of $70.25. The $70 - $72 level should be pretty important support. Technical analysis has taught me many times to leg in when things look the worst and leg out when all the news flow is positive. If the stock gets down to this $70- $72 level I may even add more to the position. I believe Jesse Livermore once said that the big money wasnt in the buying or selling, it was in the "waiting". WMT is still a formidable competitor in many respects. The retail giant is closing in on $500 billion in annual revenues - that isnt to be ignored. A lot of Americans cross those doors every quarter. The point is I'm willing to be patient right now. 
    May 17, 2015. 07:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: The Retail Death Match Continues [View article]
    yes, so true JJ. That was mentioned in the article too.
    May 17, 2015. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: The Retail Death Match Continues [View article]
    That was said through the 80's and 90's to PRG. remember capitalism is designed to constantly move forward. Look how the Cloud has disrupted technology. The rate of change and the life cycle of business is shorter today than even 20 years ago.
    May 17, 2015. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: The Retail Death Match Continues [View article]
    Wally World ? Also I am long the stock as the article states with a 2% position in client accounts.
    May 17, 2015. 08:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Wal-Mart's Size Earns It A Place On Your Dividend Growth Watchlist [View article]
    Good article Cory, but i think the shares being sold by the Walton Foundation, back to the company will mitigate big dividend increases for a while. An emphasis has to be on share repurchases as a return of capital.
    May 16, 2015. 10:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking At The S&P 500's Valuation [View article]
    Ok, thanks Avolossov. Good work. Love to see someone do their own research. Ive addressed in earlier posts with readers, but if you really want to look at a company's "quality of earnings" track 4-quarter trailing cash-flow versus net income. I dont have it at a sector level or at the SP 500 level, if run cash flow vs net income, it will give you a feel for the "legitimacy or quality of the net income. Most co's that i track this for, have a cash-flow to net income ratio of > 1(x). Some even have free-cash-flow coverage greater than 1(x).

    To be frank, it isnt that I disregard it completely, i just don't put much freight in the "GAAP vs non-GAAP" argument. Tracking cash-flow and operating cash-flow per share gives me a better company-by-company litmus test.

    Just an opinion.
    May 16, 2015. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Stat On Q1 '15 S&P 500 Revenue Growth [View article]
    Thanks, Prudence.
    May 15, 2015. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Stat On Q1 '15 S&P 500 Revenue Growth [View article]
    QQQE rebalances quarterly so the percentages will fluctuate in the QQQE based on market value changes within the quarter.
    May 15, 2015. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Stat On Q1 '15 S&P 500 Revenue Growth [View article]
    well, there are PM, but they vary to 10ths and 100ths of percents since the securities change value every day. KRFT is 1.39% and Netflix and Amazon/MSFT are somewhat less. Good point though - in between the rebalancing periods the percentages have to change with market values.
    May 15, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking At The S&P 500's Valuation [View article]
    Thomson Reuters uses "operating" earnings Avo, although they typically pick up whatever the analyst consensus is, which makes it more confusing. For large-cap tech co's, the earnings are based on Non-GAAP or earnings excluding stock option expense, for the most part. Analysts use the non-GAAP numbers so that is what T/R picks up and presumably what Factset uses.
    May 15, 2015. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking At The S&P 500's Valuation [View article]
    and by the way, the next time you want to be "outraged" don't hide behind a pseudonym like a coward. Put your real name out there and tell us your background and be "outraged", and be held accountable for it.
    May 14, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking At The S&P 500's Valuation [View article]
    I see your point, but let's say I used the current "earnings yield" on the SP 500 of 6% (see the article links) and with no growth in forward earnings, that still gets us to fair value of 2,033, just a smidge above the current prices. Remember i'm assuming no growth in forward earnings and a rate that is 250 bp's above the current investment grade bond yield.
    May 14, 2015. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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