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Brian Gilmartin, CFA

 
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  • Bed Bath & Beyond Earnings Redux: Like The Retailer's Cash Flow, Still Waiting On Stock [View article]
    Thx, Prgette. well, I showed the chart on my latest BBBY article so at $60 the stock is building a nice base and holding support. Im comfortable with a position at $60 - $61 with a stop-loss near $55 or the 2013 lows. Through the '13 lows and the stock could have a problem.
    Jun 14 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bed, Bath & Beyond Vs. Coach: Took A Position In Bed, Bath [View article]
    Yes, exactly, Rheimerl. that is exactly how I thought it about on Friday, and had to buy some before the bell rang...
    Jun 14 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bed, Bath & Beyond Vs. Coach: Took A Position In Bed, Bath [View article]
    In the interests of full and fair disclosure, I bought some COH today. I cannot find one positive comment about the company anywhere in our research. It is a small position, smaller than BBBY's less than 1% position in client accounts, but the sentiment is strikingly similar to AAPL's pre April '14 earnings release. If you read our earnings preview on AAPL from April '14, we thought the stock had bottomed given the remarkably negative sentiment around the stock pre-earnings. I don't think COH will be AAPL, but the sentiment is too negative right now, and given the position size, I can add more COH after the June 19th investor meeting if there is a another flush. Even if COH mgmt. just affirms guidance next week, the stock could rally a few percent.
    Jun 13 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bed, Bath & Beyond Vs. Coach: Took A Position In Bed, Bath [View article]
    Thx, Todd. The negativism around COH right now is striking, but the EPS and rev est's are still falling too. They don't have any l-t debt outside of store leases. The rebranding from "bags" to men's fashion's etc. is a huge hurdle and with KORS and Kate Spade they seem to be facing more intense competition.
    Jun 13 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bed, Bath & Beyond Vs. Coach: Took A Position In Bed, Bath [View article]
    Thx, Blue. Yes retail pretty beaten up. It was a tough call on BBBY. Still growing though, just at a slower growth rate. COH is getting interesting. like you, I think it might have one more flush in front of it.
    Jun 12 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bed, Bath & Beyond Vs. Coach: Took A Position In Bed, Bath [View article]
    tx, RHEI. the persistent pressure in housing wont help
    Jun 12 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Celebrates 2MM Real-Time Alerts Subscribers! [View article]
    Congrats.
    Jun 11 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic Materials And Alcoa: Some Good, Some Bad In Our Sector Overweight [View article]
    That was the case last year too Tradestar, and the stock ran from $18 to $30 in q4 '13. That kind of one-sided negative sentiment can offer opportunity. However there is a reason that the analysts hate the stock / business too.
    Jun 9 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic Materials And Alcoa: Some Good, Some Bad In Our Sector Overweight [View article]
    Thx, DD.
    Jun 8 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic Materials And Alcoa: Some Good, Some Bad In Our Sector Overweight [View article]
    Thx, Tony.
    Jun 8 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Trading At 35%-40% Discount To Perceived Intrinsic Value [View article]
    yes, agree completely WNW.
    Jun 3 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Trading At 35%-40% Discount To Perceived Intrinsic Value [View article]
    Yeah, DG, do you really think I am a "promoter" ? If you actually read the piece you'll note this is a new position within client portfolios, and I am looking for the catalyst to emerge in late 2014, early 2015. The point being that BTU (and KOL) are not "stale positions". Your first sentence is hilarious too: go ahead and wait for "more sales at better margins" - you'll be buying the stock 20% - 25% higher and far closer to fair value. Sheer genius on Seeking Alpha...
    Jun 3 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Trading At 35%-40% Discount To Perceived Intrinsic Value [View article]
    Thanks for all the spirited comments. Typically through the years of doing what I do, when discussions about stocks get as spirited as this was, it usually means the stock is very expensive or very cheap. It is hard to put politics aside in this situation given the heavy-hand of the Obama Administration on the sector. The kind of regulation being proposed in today's headlines alone, depresses sector valuations. Let's see how BTU and KOL trade today and on what kind of volume. IT is just an opinion, but I think we are in the later innings of the beating being heaped on this sector. Ukraine, and the price of natural gas matter too, so it isn't just Washington pushing on the valuation. Thanks for the comments.
    Jun 2 08:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy (BTU -1.7%) sinks to its lowest price in four years as Stifel Nicolaus cuts its earnings estimates, citing lower coal prices and higher than expected costs. With 40% of planned 2014 production yet to be priced, BTU likely would benefit if a utility stockpile decline brings a recovery in thermal coal prices, the firm says, but Australia is a drag on results given continued slow demand for coal exports there. [View news story]
    Agree, NVander. Thank you.
    May 31 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Trading At 35%-40% Discount To Perceived Intrinsic Value [View article]
    playing the April low of $16.04, 615. It held this week. The fact that we cant "see" the catalyst to buy is precisely the reason I am accumulating BTU and KOL here, 615. By the time we see the catalyst, the stock is 20% higher. (That, unfortunately, is the downside of value investing. You have to wait for the catalyst to emerge.)
    May 31 10:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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