Intel At $23 - Strong Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
thx, Dag. i think it is a secular worry with INTC and MSFT and the complete world domination of Apple, but people forget that the US economy is 80% services and most of those jobs require some form of computer technology. Once job growth resumes, the PC might not be the dinosuar everyone thinks it is. Like the stock mkt, the PC is being written off for dead.
Wasnt aware of that, Tim. good points and analysis. Seems like you and Paulo zeroing in on cash-flow quality, I've read a few books on it that Herb Greenberg suggested, but if you have an analytical framework or a good source for your work, please send them along. I'm always looking to improve my research capability. Thanks.
Ford Earnings Preview: Attractive Valuation As European Weakness Offsets North American Strength [View article]
Venerability, Ford North America is robust. Highest North American pre-tax auto margin ever. The issue with the stock tomorrow is how much of rest of world (ROW) issues are discounted in current price. Has Europe reached the bottom ? In effect, Ford's trading will answer that question for us.
Alcoa Earnings Preview: Trading Below Tangible Book, For A Reason [View article]
Funny, haleiwahu ! Yes, a couple folks have pointed the crooked tie out. I do need a better picture - looks like i was just sprung from the klink. A technician we follow closely likes how AA is setting up. Fundamentally and we didnt talk about it in the piece, is that Europe might be getting less worse (for what that is worth), if only politically. Once defaults is off the table there - i think European stocks and those with European exposure, get a bid. Tough stock to hold. will update the column on Wednesday or Thursday. Appreciate the note and the sense of humor.
Intel At $23 - Strong Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
Doc, most of those ratings are worthless. Cant tell you how many Street firms have or had strong buys on tech stocks and names like RIMM and Nokia as the stocks came apart. Pay attention to "valuation" - what a stock / company is really worth per share, and at least if it is overvalued you know that and keep it on a short leash.
Intel At $23 - Strong Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
seems to me that sentiment is just awful around semi's and Intel in particular. Jim Cramer, who i admire, touting an article on TheStreet.com just Friday, about the death of PC's, is emblematic of the sentiment. Technicals getting attractive, fundamentals are cheap, sentiment is negative, talk about the triple play...
Intel At $23 - Strong Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
Could be HJ. It seems to be today that the tablet is still being used more for internet access and blog reading than business applications. It is just an opinion, but it continues to be my impression that Intel and WinTel continue to have a lock on the business application and business market. I dont think tablets have come close to cracking that yet, and i've been in Apple stores and seen the Apple "Office" applications box and have asked the Apple sale staff about it, and they didnt seem too interested in pushing it. Again, this is just my opinion.
Richard Saintvilus loves Alcoa (AA) but hates the stock: The company is performing as well as can be expected considering double-digit declines in aluminum prices, but there's also no near-term catalyst to suggest the stock should be trading above current levels. AA continues to work on productivity and efficiency improvements, but for now, Wall Street isn't interested in waiting. [View news story]
AA trading about 75% of tangible book value. Hard to get cheaper than that.
Basic Materials Earnings Redux: Alcoa, Freeport, U.S. Steel And DuPont - Return Of Global Growth? [View article]
Thx, Fun. You might be on to something. I just look at the history of product liability like Merck and Vioxx (?) and so many others. It gets dragged into court for years. DD might have reserved for it already too. Have to read the Q, K.
Basic Materials Earnings Redux: Alcoa, Freeport, U.S. Steel And DuPont - Return Of Global Growth? [View article]
Thx, Fun. dont follow the company. Didnt know that, but the info is helpful. The previous '05 and '11 highs near $55 is a key technical point of resistance.
One final point: these litigation issues can often disappear or get litigated over years and hence dissolved over time. Since I'm not familiar with the issue, I won't comment further.
Alcoa Earnings Preview: Below Tangible Book, But Aluminum Price Still Soft [View article]
well your comment pre-supposes the answer. Note your own comments on price and then supply and demand, and your very last sentence. In the preview, we give readers what our internal model values AA at, and we give readers the Morningstar fair value expectation. These are not price targets, these are intrinsic value estimates. What more would you like me to comment on ? Your $9 estimate could be accurate.
Wells Fargo And JPMorgan Chase: Buying For Solid Fundamentals And Inexpensive Cash Flow [View article]
Good article, Nick, but the statement of cash flows is far less relevant to a financial than other sectors like industrials or tech or retail. In fact we spend quite a bit of time analyzing cash-flow statements for our holdings, in terms of the focus of our analysis and we dont even construct cash flow statements for financials - for financials it is all about "capital adequacy", and the composition of capital. Banks and financials generated cash-flow in q4 '08 and q1 '09, by diluting their shareholders, i.e. issuing equity and crushing the stock price. (Check the share count for Citi and a host of other financials, from 2006 through 2010. Horrible dilution, but technically it is cash-flow from "financing" activities. (as i understand it). Cash-flow and free-cash-flow are relevant for the rest of the SP 500 sectors though.
Ford Earnings Preview: Attractive Valuation As European Weakness Offsets North American Strength [View article]
Intel At $23 - Strong Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
Intel At $23 - Strong Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
Amazon Earnings Preview: Revenue Momentum Continues, Capex Growth Slowing [View article]
Comparing Apple's Guidance To Actual Results [View article]
Ford Earnings Preview: Attractive Valuation As European Weakness Offsets North American Strength [View article]
Alcoa Earnings Preview: Trading Below Tangible Book, For A Reason [View article]
Intel At $23 - Strong Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
Intel At $23 - Strong Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
Intel At $23 - Strong Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
Richard Saintvilus loves Alcoa (AA) but hates the stock: The company is performing as well as can be expected considering double-digit declines in aluminum prices, but there's also no near-term catalyst to suggest the stock should be trading above current levels. AA continues to work on productivity and efficiency improvements, but for now, Wall Street isn't interested in waiting. [View news story]
Basic Materials Earnings Redux: Alcoa, Freeport, U.S. Steel And DuPont - Return Of Global Growth? [View article]
Basic Materials Earnings Redux: Alcoa, Freeport, U.S. Steel And DuPont - Return Of Global Growth? [View article]
One final point: these litigation issues can often disappear or get litigated over years and hence dissolved over time. Since I'm not familiar with the issue, I won't comment further.
Alcoa Earnings Preview: Below Tangible Book, But Aluminum Price Still Soft [View article]
Wells Fargo And JPMorgan Chase: Buying For Solid Fundamentals And Inexpensive Cash Flow [View article]
Food for thought...