Brian Kahn

Brian Kahn
Contributor since: 2012
Company: Jupiter Peak Financial, LLC
maybe just the "rumor" is good enough! a 50 point move in spx last week is pretty impressive. fed, ecb and bank of england all on tap this week. should be fun!
just an error in typing. overall, the relationship between spx and vix is what i was trying to get across. interesting that spx broke out and vix is still above support...
looks like the markets agree with you - a 50 point move in spx last week - not bad!
over the past 4 years, the markets have rallied (100% in 3 years). is it fundamentally based on employment or moreso on government interventions/central bank interventions. based on past performance, accomodative stances are bullish - see last week's equity market rally from 1330 to 1380. don't fight the fed(s)
i think you should chart volume on spx over the past 4 years. people say volume is down the rally cant continue - i hope they aren't short based on volume!
I think you get the point of it the article. spy and spx look the same so if you can chart one, you can chart the other. vxx and vix don't look exactly the same, but the relationship to the spy (or spx) is the same. hopefully you are using that relationship if you are protecting an equity portfolio
The long term buy and hold investor should hope so...
I just call the markets and all the ancillary stuff that contributes to it is just that - ancillary. Bottom line - it will be great trading markets for years, maybe even a decade. The investor who is of the buy and hold mentality should be wary....
the markets will tell us, but so far, the markets have been up on the rumors. are they overbought? seemingly so from the start of today's action!
Good question Diego. I don't think any uncertainty is in the VIX. Look at the VIX last summer - it was in the 40's and that was when Europe was rioting in the streets. .We are more uncertain than ever now in Europe (and as of late in USA as there are poor economic reports on jobs data), and the VIX is in the 20's and the SPX is only 3% from its 3.5 year bull run high. It looks like as long as governments are coordinating efforts on austerity/QE3, etc... we have an underlying bid to equities and that is keeping VIX low.
Trust me, you will know when things are volatile as there will be more blood in the streets and on the trading screens as the equity markets could fall (should already have fallen) a lot farther. But, as a technical analyst, as long as support holds, all we can do is go with the trend! My daily market commentary was updated at my new site: http://bit.ly/KpQ62U and same information at http://bit.ly/JDRZqN
Yes - and the only time the SPX goes up as of late is when the Fed talks. Are they going to add stimulus for the rest of my trading/investing life? Probably not, so I will use technicals along with fundamentals to decide which entity to go into and how long to to stay in it. Should be a fun decade of trading and investing going forward as no one knows the result of their recent actions
Yes - you did your homework - thanks for replying. Technically, BBY is on its lows, if markets go lower, what happens to BBY - maybe the yield gets a lot more attractive!!! I would always defer to technicals to make the final decision whether investing or trading
You are right - that is why I included the link. I am in the camp of deflation - sideways prices and growth. hard to see high inflation (as measured by the Federal Reserve) if the economy starts to slacken off (see today's CHPM number), UNLESS Federal Reserve keeps propping the markets up. Should be a fun decade to trade and invest in when reality does finally set in!
YUM and MCD seem to go head to head a bit in products and international expansion. both are doing nicely technically and fundamentally. to really separate them, i would rely on technical analysis.
good work. i checked on another site as well and found out they are saying 1.55 too. you obviously are running things through your filter which is the first step to being successful. yes, lots of stocks are at their highs as they correlate with the spx. more bad news on from CHPM today and markets don't go down much. will the next breakout be above 1420 in spx carrying most stocks higher?
Yes - I look to invest and then protect the portfolio with income generation and protection strategies. I can be very, very bearish, but just not right now - at least for the next few weeks - but that could change tomorrow! Again, if you are fighting this, you are wrong as far as your returns go!
Whether we agree with QE or not, it has been fueling the equity markets to a 100% gain in the SPX in 3 years. Not bad! Oh yeah, the trend is your friend. Get out of the way as we just moved 40 points higher in the SPX in 4 days. Only 3.5%!
The Fed caused the SPX to move from 1360 to 1400 in 4 days. Not bad Mr. Bernanke!
James, I agree! I am being very, very satriical as I am a trader and an investor and I work with individuals to teach them to get the most out of their portfolios - bullish, bearish or sideways markets. I should have a follow up commentary posted soon. But, trust me, I am in your camp, BUT as far as trading and investing right now, it is NOT a market to hedge your bets if you don't know where and when to do it. It IS a market to let your investments run, run, run, Whether you believe it to work or not, the technical analysis and the returns over the last 3 years suggest the FED is perfectly helping the equity markets to recover. The job market, that is another story, but not the point of the article. Thanks for your comment.