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Brian Kahn
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Brian has over 13 years of securities trading experience. He began his financial career in 1998 trading in the bond futures markets for International Trading Group LLC. in Chicago, IL. Upon moving to Utah, while continuing to trade and manage his own accounts, Brian helped to create, teach and... More
My company:
Jupiter Peak Financial, LLC
My blog:
Jupiter Peak Financial - The Local's Take
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  • Can You Feel The Buying Pressure?

    I feel like the theme of this summer's markets should be Elton John's "Can You Feel the Love Tonight". The markets sure are showing investors the love as we are just a handful of points away from setting a new bull run high in the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

    Let's review the fundamentals first. We have overcome:

    **Europe

    **a slowing world economy

    **stagnant employment data in the world's leading economy (US)

    **uncertainty over the upcoming US Presidential election

    **uncertainty over healthcare in the US which is keeping employers from hiring

    All this and a market that can't be kept down. That is where technical analysis comes in. You can see the buying come in. Take a look at any "High, Low, Open, Close" bar and you will see that it is rare (very rare) that the markets close on their lows when looking at daily bar. This screams out that the buyers are winning.

    Another analogy. All of the pit traders are standing around and anytime someone puts up their hands and says "Sell", buyers come in. So if you are selling these markets over and over, you are probably losing. Take a look at the trend and ask yourself if swimming upstream or downstream is easier. The stream of the markets has been . This is proven by the very small percentage we are off from our early summer highs - less than 1.5%. Buyers have been rewarded and if they wait for a dip, enter the markets, then soon after see a surge higher. Remember, any "anxious" moments the markets have had, whether it is Europe or a slowing in global growth, the markets have dipped and come right back up and ferociously quick at that!

    So we clearly have a trend up full of higher highs and higher lows. Now the question is what will happen at resistance - the same point that we fell from in May is just ahead of us. Are there enough buyers to push us through? Will there be a fundamental event that will push us through? I am in the camp that it could be a little of both as fundamentally, we see "Quantitative Easing 3" arrive to push us over the top.

    Getting back to the fundamentals, if you look at recent economic data, whether it is better than expected or weaker then expected, the markets go up. I don't think the data will come in too strong or too weak that it pushes the Federal Reserve away from acting.

    With the understanding that all recent fundamentals have been "bullish" events and with a basic understanding of technical analysis, this keeps you long the markets or at least neutral, but certainly not short the markets.

    A few bellwether stocks that are at new highs or breaking out to new highs:

    **Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)

    **Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM)

    **Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)

    **General Electric Company (NYSE:GE)

    I think you get the point. These are household names that are multinational companies and as a special bonus, provide nice dividends.

    It seems like only a matter of time before the "love" continues and prices of the overall indices rise above old resistance.

    Invest Intelligently,

    Brian

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Aug 16 10:26 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Weaker Equities Can't Break Forex Pairs Out Of Their Ranges

    Good Morning,

    As I posted on Friday, be aware of the multitude of data that is to be released this week. Macro events such as European elections, European austerity and the FOMC may take center stage and give us some "guidance".

    Technically, the SPX is back at 1360. It has been in a 1360-1390 range and it seems like just a few days ago, we were at 1390. So a 30 point range for 13 trading days is actually a 2.2% trading range. Trading ranges can provide trading opportunities and if you want to learn more about those opportunities, please join me Wednesday evening for the IBFX webinar titled: "Rangebound Trading Opportunities"

    Moving into the charts, let's start with forex and a pair showing very much a range, the EUR/USD:

    (click to enlarge)

    Next up is another range bound pair, the USD/CAD. You know that I have been talking about it as it has been oscillating in a 2 penny range for months. We approached the top of the range today as equities and oil traded lower:

    (click to enlarge)

    The next chart of the USD/CAD shows the past few days, where it found support at .9900 and moved higher:

    (click to enlarge)

    Moving into equities, let's take a look at an ETF that acts as a "leader". The Financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) are looking to make a lower low (as is the SPX), which would change the "sequence" and could potentially put us in a downtrend:

    Another ETF that has a chart that is hard to decipher, but is getting closer and closer to old support at 3.00 is natural gas (NYSEARCA:GAZ):

    It should be a volatile week, so make sure you trade appropriate size if trading ranges do in fact pick up.

    Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool

    Coach Brian

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 23 2:18 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Equities Drive USD/CAD

    Good Morning,

    I am going to stay with what I know and that is a rangebound USD/CAD. We moved halfway back into the range yesterday during the American equity session as equities went down and the USD went up.

    Last night, we received positive news out of Europe and US futures were flat to positive and now, most equity markets are heading higher. As a result, oil got a bit of a pop and additionally, not sure if you can throw in any weekend risk bid to oil prices.

    But, overall, that means higher equity prices, higher oil prices and a higher CAD. But, even more interesting is the comparison between equity moves and the USD/CAD. Look first at yesterday's post for a chart of the USD/CAD and the just under 2 penny range it is has been in for over 3 months (.9830 to 1.000). Now look at yesterday's trade and today's. As I described above, we moved halfway up and now are coming back down towards the lows. The Fibonacci shows yesterday's rally and the percentage we have retraced today as the USD has gotten weaker:

    (click to enlarge)

    Past performance is not indicative of future results

    (click to enlarge)

    Past performance is not indicative of future results

    Overall, the USD is really weak against all majors today. That has been another underlying theme as of late. When equities go down, the USD barely gets stronger. When the equity markets go up, the USD gets absolutely creamed, hammered, stepped on, thrown down, you get the picture!

    Eventually, some fundamental or technical event will get the USD/CAD to break out of its range. Until then, use it to your advantage by understanding support and resistance!

    Looking at the remainder of today's and the week's trading, as I said, we have a seriously weak USD. With this being the case, we always have the opportunity for BUFFALO BOUNCES to show up. We don't have any USD data today, so be careful of trading ranges that decrease as the day goes on. If for some reason we get a Friday selloff in equities, that 61.8 line in the USD/CAD could continue to be support.

    Speaking of USD data, let's look ahead so you have an idea what to watch out for on the economic calendar next week:

    **durable goods

    **FOMC STATEMENT

    **weekly claims

    **Advance GDP

    **earnings

    **smattering of international interest rate talks

    **the usual "surprises" from various regional central banks

    That is quite a lot, so keep your trading plans in tact for each and every trade you put on. This data also affects your investment portfolio that you are trying to generate income on as well as protect its downside risk. For now though, the goldilocks scenario is in place. A president trying to get re-elected and a president who can lean on the Fed to QE his way to another 4 years!

    Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool

    Coach Brian

    Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

    Apr 20 11:22 AM | Link | Comment!
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