Brian Kelly

The Curious Case of Missing Intervention

Joseph

You make a very good point on the need for a coordinated effort and the need for China and GCC to be a part of that effort. And Bruce, I think your point about the SNB attempt to weaken the Franc is spot on.

I have been skeptical of the SNB's real motivation - it seems as though they are just trying to talk the Franc down or at least keep it stable. It is not in the interest of the Swiss banking system to have a weak and unstable currency.

I wonder if either of you have thoughts on the motivation and ultimate outcome of the Swiss "intervention"?

CMBS Delinquencies Rise: Should the Government Step In?

Both dq rates came from Federal reserve data and yes the CRE number does include construction loans---Deutsche Bank estimates CMBS dq's rose to 1.2% - including 30 days past due - Foresight Analytics reported dq's on CRE loans on banks books of 2.2%.

online.wsj.com/article...

So when you remove the construction loans the dq rate on CRE is lower than the Fed's number, but still increasing. As you point out, without the gently hand of Uncle Sam there will be problems.





On Jan 10 12:02 AM CMBS wrote:

> Your resi dq numbers look too low and CRE dq numbers look too high.
> Check your data source: does the CRE dq include condo construction
> loans? I think that it is the case.
> Your definition on the cost of insuring CMBS is wrong. Please refer
> to markit.com.
> But you made a valid point that there will be issues, especially
> if the gov. rescue a few asset classes but not CRE. CRE will become
> the victim of gov. intervention. Since the gov. has started playing
> God, the love should be spared with the CRE sector as well.