That was the rationale behind my initial trade in AMRN. The call options I sold were extremely profitable due to option buyers who were clearly betting on an AMRN buyout in the very near future, but the huge drop in December after the company raised the $100m to launch Vascepa itself not only wiped out my gains but put me into the red
A few call options later and I was still in the red, decided to head into another trade that's working out a lot better
If AMRN gets NCE I would have been better off staying in, but if they don't I'm worried
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
Fair enough, I also like contrarian investing - but only if the fundamentals support it. DNDN cannot afford to pay down any more than its debts with its cash, lest it runs out of money before the end of this year (they are still burning cash at ~$37 million per quarter). There's a reason that so many people are short the stock.
At the same time, the huge short interest and the already-steep drop is preventing me from shorting right now. I did have a short position at just under $7 from earlier in the year, but I closed it too early for minimal gains versus what I could have had at this point.
$2.00/share is a ballpark estimate I got after crunching the numbers. It's based on a market capitalization that reflects where Dendreon is headed, given that it sells a given amount of common stock and reaches around $90-100 million in Provenge sales in the US.
I'm curious to see how the debt gets paid off.
I haven't done any DD on JCP, but I do know that Bill Ackman lost his shirt on that trade and that it operates at steep losses in an industry that you can't afford to be earnings-negative in. Good luck there
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
"2016-complete and i mean complete journalistic garbage folks and i have no respect for someone who comes up with such nonsense."
Dendreon has $533 in debt that's due in 2016, that's why I picked the year. The company still operates at a loss, which means that they have no way to pay down this debt without diluting shareholder value.
These are facts, not opinion.
The opinion factor comes in when you start talking about where DNDN should be, and whether or not Provenge can experience some kind of epic jump in sales. $2.00/share is a ballpark estimate, but would be a reasonable guess if Dendreon continued its current downward trajectory
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
Joe, I'm not blaming JJ for this. Provenge is so expensive to manufacture that it seems almost inevitable that the company will have to continue to either take on more debt or sell more common.
I don't have an answer. I think Dendreon has good intentions and is a good company, but from a financial perspective it seems that shareholders are trying to fight gravity
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
It's dropped substantially since the last note, and I still haven't seen any bullish arguments for the stock that adequately address the company's serious financial problems - specifically the debt.
Short DNDN has been one of the most profitable bear trades in the biotech sector in recent history.
There is no free lunch. Shareholders can't make a positive ROI on a company that will have to fund itself through share dilution despite having an FDA approved product.
Assuming that Provenge is introduced to the European market, Dendreon will still be unable to turn a profit due to the extremely high expenses it'd incur with another manufacturing plant
Windows 8 was such a horrible (and continually painful) experience for me with my new laptop that I'm literally never going to buy a computer with any new versions of Windows before thoroughly testing it in a pc store or something first
I can only imagine how bad RT is
Stay out of MSFT, the company no longer cares about its customers
Why Amarin Is Struggling So Much [View article]
A few call options later and I was still in the red, decided to head into another trade that's working out a lot better
If AMRN gets NCE I would have been better off staying in, but if they don't I'm worried
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
At the same time, the huge short interest and the already-steep drop is preventing me from shorting right now. I did have a short position at just under $7 from earlier in the year, but I closed it too early for minimal gains versus what I could have had at this point.
$2.00/share is a ballpark estimate I got after crunching the numbers. It's based on a market capitalization that reflects where Dendreon is headed, given that it sells a given amount of common stock and reaches around $90-100 million in Provenge sales in the US.
I'm curious to see how the debt gets paid off.
I haven't done any DD on JCP, but I do know that Bill Ackman lost his shirt on that trade and that it operates at steep losses in an industry that you can't afford to be earnings-negative in. Good luck there
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
two companies that have lost investors untold amounts of money by operating at steep losses (poor Ackman)
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
Dendreon has $533 in debt that's due in 2016, that's why I picked the year. The company still operates at a loss, which means that they have no way to pay down this debt without diluting shareholder value.
These are facts, not opinion.
The opinion factor comes in when you start talking about where DNDN should be, and whether or not Provenge can experience some kind of epic jump in sales. $2.00/share is a ballpark estimate, but would be a reasonable guess if Dendreon continued its current downward trajectory
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
I don't know exactly how it'll play out, but $2.00/share for DNDN is possible
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
http://bit.ly/YPLLd0
consolidated 2012 data, $325m revenue and $665m in expenses, total year losses of $340m
R&D costed about $75m, SG&A $317m, and the revenue costed about $228m (this is basically manufacturing). That's that part that is scary.
For every $1 in provenge sales revenue, about $.70 is eaten up just from making it
optimistically, the company needs $100m in quarterly sales revenue just to break even.
Microsoft Is Far Too Cheap To Ignore Any Longer [View article]
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
I'm not blaming JJ for this. Provenge is so expensive to manufacture that it seems almost inevitable that the company will have to continue to either take on more debt or sell more common.
I don't have an answer. I think Dendreon has good intentions and is a good company, but from a financial perspective it seems that shareholders are trying to fight gravity
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
Questcor can, because COGS is ~6% and top-line growth is continuing
Provenge is an innovative therapy, but it's a poor investment from a financial standpoint
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
Short DNDN has been one of the most profitable bear trades in the biotech sector in recent history.
There is no free lunch. Shareholders can't make a positive ROI on a company that will have to fund itself through share dilution despite having an FDA approved product.
Assuming that Provenge is introduced to the European market, Dendreon will still be unable to turn a profit due to the extremely high expenses it'd incur with another manufacturing plant
Microsoft Still Doesn't Get It [View article]
Microsoft Still Doesn't Get It [View article]
I can only imagine how bad RT is
Stay out of MSFT, the company no longer cares about its customers