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Brian Langis

 
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  • RE: I Bet On Tesla Because Most Investors Don't Understand Electric Cars [View article]
    Value Horizon,
    You are right, this is not a value analysis but an opinion piece. PE is not an appropriate measure to gauge a company like Tesla, especially a start up. I have written a few valuation reports on other stocks, feel free to check them out.

    Regarding the car specs, well you beat me at it. I drive a truck.

    My article was targeting the outrageous projections of endless growth backed by unbridled optimism. The growth is perceived to develop in a straight-lined fashion without disruption. Most investors invest in Tesla without any idea of its value. They love the exotic story and it intellectually make sense to buy it. But it's possible they are overpaying. Therefore the potential investor needs to do its homework.
    Jan 12 07:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Bills On Sale For 15 Cents: Ram Power Corp. [View article]
    It makes me wonder about the institution that unloaded 10 million shares in the last two weeks. The massive unloading suggest that they might have known about the fund raising and liquidity problem. Perfect timing right?

    According to Morningstar, in the last quarter Sprott Asset Management had 37.7 million shares and Blackrock had over 27 million. They are the only two shareholders with over 10 million shares. At the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), there's a big seller with ID 001, usually fund use ID 001 to mask their transactions. Seller 001 has been the seller that has been massively unloading the last two weeks if you look at the transactions. The unloading doesn't seem to be done. Still today Seller 001 is still selling.

    My money is on Sprott and Rick Rule. Sprott Resources is the provider of the credit facility and RPG director A. Murrey Sinclair is the director of Sprott Resources. I think they are in the know.

    At September 30, 2013, RPG had $24.9 million in cash. They plowed through $26 million for the nine months that ended in September. They have $47 million in obligations coming up next year, therefore RPG will need to raise additional capital in order to continue funding operating and exploration.
    Nov 18 08:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter May Be A Good Short [View article]
    Twitter is clearly overvalued. Shorting it might be a risky move too. Remember the old market adage? The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
    Nov 7 07:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook - It's The Valuation Stupid (Lessons For Twitter) [View article]
    Hi Maykiljil,
    Thanks for the comments. I have not clue what a profile is worth. I was trying to make a point. I agree I believe the FB user base will expand over time but 2-3 billion?? Only if they get China because at that number we are talking about half the world's population.
    Oct 8 06:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife A Fraud? That Is The Question [View article]
    Matt, relax, you sound like a guy under attack. The more defensive you get the more your credibility gets affected.

    First I don't have money on the short and I don't have money on the long. Am I am guy enjoying a great investment fight. It's a nice debate. If I had short money on the line I would freak out too.

    Now why is HFL not a fraud? When you become a member you know exactly what you get into. How do you explain a pyramid scheme of 30+ years? Herbalife allows distributors to return unsold product for up to a year, and that returns have accounted for less than 0.5% of sales in recent years. So what if it’s hard to make much money selling Herbalife? That's Herbalife and the distributors' problem. Life is hard! If it was easy we wouldn't discuss this. Do I think it's a terrible business? Heck yeah it is Is it a fraud? That's for the government to decide. Not me, not you, not Ackman.
    Aug 8 08:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear Oprah: Forget The Clippers, Buy The Knicks [View article]
    Thank you for the comments.

    re tinbox:

    Yes there's definitively a downside risk which are highlighted in the article. The biggest one is the Dolan family itself. Now the Garden is renovated, the question is what are they going to do with all the free cash flow. They have a new CEO and they haven't provided a clear response. Let's just they that the Dolans don't have the best trackrecord when it comes to capital allocation skills. They were some terrible, ok, and good investments in the past. An instant value creator would be to buyback some undervalued shares. A dividend would be nice and attract a new class of shareholders.

    In the last conference call, the new CEO seems to have hinted that they will make acquisitions to grow the company. With the proper strategy and discipline, it can really payoff. But it can also fail. Can they earn higher returns than their cost of capital? This company has a lot of value to be unlocked internally.

    I have added a 20% margin of safety, aka the Dolan family risk discount to my evaluation.
    Jun 11 03:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Quiksilver Run Up Too Fast, Too Quickly? [View article]
    Good article. I also believe that this stock is up on momentum and the ''come back'' dream.
    I agree that Mooney will success at slimming down the company and cost cutting but this company need an ''extreme brand makeover''. Sure margins and EBITDA might increase in the short-run, but I don't see the brands going back to their former glory under the current plan.
    Jan 21 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RE: I Bet On Tesla Because Most Investors Don't Understand Electric Cars [View article]
    If Tesla is a value stock you should write the preface of the next edition of Security Analysis. Looks like Warren Buffett has it all wrong.
    Jan 14 09:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RE: I Bet On Tesla Because Most Investors Don't Understand Electric Cars [View article]
    There's a lot of good comments and back and forth going on.

    Value Horizon, please correct me if I'm wrong but did you mean that Tesla is nothing but a value investment.
    ''It is nothing other than value investing, the value measured further out in time than usual, but because of the company's ADVANTAGE of having clear value visibility further out in time than the vast majority of businesses.''

    I'm pretty sure that Tesla doesn't qualify as value investment unless the definition just changed. I get it, you like Tesla and you believe that the stock with go higher, that's great. But my definition of a value investment is a little different than yours. What would Graham and Dodds think? Here are some of my general value investing criteria:
    - Buying a stock/asset below it's intrinsic value with a 20%+ margin of safety. (What's TSLA intrinsic value? Impossible to pin point without arguing all night)
    - I don't think TSLA trades below tangible book value
    - The technology moat is a debate. TSLA might have an edge in the EV department for the moment, but there's a of R&D on different tech going on.
    - Low Price to FCF
    - Low Price to earnings, or forward earnings.
    - At this moment, are you buying Tesla at it's worst pessimistic moment, when nobody wants it?
    - Downside protection by a lot of assets? not sure.

    Tesla is filed under the growth stock category.
    Jan 13 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RE: I Bet On Tesla Because Most Investors Don't Understand Electric Cars [View article]
    History repeats itself. Every time it happens it's the same good old line: "This time its different". Usually that's a red flag. South Sea Bubble, airplane, radio, car, train, electricity, the internet, housing, and now social media.
    Jan 12 07:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook - It's The Valuation Stupid (Lessons For Twitter) [View article]
    I'm glad you made money. Every Tom, Dick, and Jane runs to FB because FB is up and up and up. When FB was down nobody wanted it. But now its at ~$50, its a "great" stock to buy.

    Great comment, thanks. Hope you find a good bargain.
    Oct 8 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook - It's The Valuation Stupid (Lessons For Twitter) [View article]
    Hi Mark,
    Facebook is not making money from you. Its making money from the advertisers. They pay Facebook to be able to target you. The more stuff you "like", the more complete your profile is (movies, books, interests etc..), the better the target you are. FB also makes money from virtual good people buy in a game. Every time somebody fills his credit card with virtual goods Facebook gets a cut.
    Oct 8 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom's Discount Seems Extreme [View article]
    Israel and Qatar are working on pipelines that would reach Europe. The conflict in Syria is slowing down the potential pipeline but if it ever materialize it might cut down in their profit margin. Obviously we are a couple years away.

    For somebody that understands the company well and the risk involve, it might be a nice play.
    Sep 9 06:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Husky Energy: Undervalued And Unloved, Solid Growth Prospects Offer 35%+ Potential Upside [View article]
    Very good research. I like Husky as well.
    Sep 5 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife A Fraud? That Is The Question [View article]
    The answer to your question is in the hand of the government regulators. Excellent arguments on both sides can be made.

    Herbalife has been ruled to be an illegal pyramid scheme in Belgium. The court concludes that Herbalife is exactly what the consumer group claimed it is, an illegal pyramid scheme based on “endless chain” recruiting. Herbalife did not offer the court any evidence that it has a base of consumers who buy the products on a retail basis from Herbalife “distributors.” In fact, the actual customers, based on evidence, are the Herbalife salespeople themselves
    Aug 8 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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