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Brian Marckx, CFA

 
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  • Rockwell's Triferic Has Zero Clinical Relevance - Sell Ahead Of The Upcoming AdCom [View article]
    Great analysis and finally one about RMTI that is relevant and not the usual pump B.S.
    And I think the author was kind relative to the credibility of mgmt. For example, where's the $50 million in annual Calcitriol revenue that mgmt implied could be expected - and begin back in 2013?
    Oct 29, 2014. 06:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BioLife Solutions Posts Another Record Year With Revenue Up 58% [View article]
    More shares will be issued with the debt conversion. As far as the RS, it's not uncommon for the share price to languish afterwards. It's an easier exit for those that were waiting to. But, BLFS did it to uplist and I think very legitimately so. This wasn't a RS so insiders could get out quick and then watch the stock tank.
    Feb 20, 2014. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rockwell Medical Overvalued Based On Significant Risk [View article]
    So today marks exactly 6 months following my Sell initiation on RMTI when the stock was trading at $8.59. My 6-month price target was $4.00 and the stock now trades at $4.36 (down 49%). In addition, the stock has not traded above $8.59 since I initiated. Pretty darn good call I'd say. So if you didn't follow my price target, maybe you should have!
    Mar 14, 2013. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Put Response Biomedical On Your Radar [View article]
    Sstrand, are you implying that you believe the stock is fully or overvalued at this level? Would love to hear your analysis. This is an investment forum, you seem to comment often yet have not shared or written any articles which makes your comment about me not alerting earlier seem hipocritical.
    Feb 3, 2013. 07:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CombiMatrix Exploiting Growth Of Chromosomal Microarray For Prenatal Analysis [View article]
    The lawsuit is unfortunate but the fundamentals of the financials - that is, what's related to their operations, were very good.
    Aug 7, 2014. 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cardiac Surgery Rapidly Evolving As Substantial Opportunity For CytoSorbents [View article]
    CytoSorb has potential applicability across a variety of indications and has already been used successfully in Europe in sepsis, burn injuries, lung injury, acute pancreatitis, trauma and others - including cardiac surgery.
    The potential total market for it is at least several billion $.
    Revenue to-date has largely been from investigator-initiated studies and follow-on orders - and the company has said that interest, demand and follow-on orders are increasing.
    This is a novel device - so the adoption curve can be somewhat drawn-out - I don't think anyone that has followed the company closely thought that that wouldn't be the case. And, as I mention in the article CTSO's game plan has been to build awareness and drive adoption - which, given the feedback from the company and product sales growth, seems to be working.
    So if you think the company will never break $3M in revenue, your characterization of $71M MC being absurd may be appropriate. I think it's absurd to value CTSO on $3M in near-term revenue given their growth prospects.
    Jul 21, 2014. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Favorable Ruling In Markman Hearing Opens Up Options For Zecotek [View article]
    Read my Oct 2013 article on the company - I lay out my valuation methodology and also make clear that a potential judgment in Zecotek's favor is not factored into my valuation.
    May 19, 2014. 07:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Scrutiny Over Medical Device Safety Offers Opportunity For VeriTeQ [View article]
    One more reason there could be add'l interest in VTEQ's tech for breast implants.

    Also one more impetus for countries to implement national breast implant registries.
    Feb 24, 2014. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Scrutiny Over Medical Device Safety Offers Opportunity For VeriTeQ [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.
    I fully expect the company will be cash flow negative and need to raise a fairly substantial amount of add'l capital over the next few years. That doesn't necessarily mean it has to come from one investor or mean the company has to be bought for current shareholders to see a positive return. My model assumes they sell new equity on an ongoing basis. Lots of companies run in the red for years prior to becoming profitable and generating positive cash flow. Will VTEQ eventually turn cash flow positive? I don't know. There's a lot of risk that d/n happen - just as there's a lot of risks with almost any development stage or early revenue stage co.
    Feb 14, 2014. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PST Launch, A New Inflection Point For Interleukin Genetics [View article]
    So you're saying BTIG is a bucket shop?
    The fact is that ILIU needed to raise money and they did - terms of the deal were not necessarily unfavorable to ILIU, particularly given their situation - they're a tiny company with low volume, were in a position where they needed $ immediately and were in a tight spot with their credit line.
    Clearly there's risk that ILIU may not eventually be profitable - it's a $14MM MC company trading at $0.40 - that risk already seems well baked in.
    Jun 24, 2013. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PST Launch, A New Inflection Point For Interleukin Genetics [View article]
    The financing certainly had the effect of significantly increasing the share count. Importantly the company was able to raise a lot of $ when they needed to - whether they were going to be able to do so and avoid the impending liquidity crunch was a big question mark prior to the financing. They raised at $0.2745/share and the stock price has held up well since - which I think is indicative of the potential of PST. As you indicated, their prior commercialized products have not been successful enough to self-support the company - PST, with insurance reimbursement could be significantly more successful than their other tests, however.
    Jun 24, 2013. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Competitive Advantages, Huge Skin Cancer Market Bode Well For Aura [View article]
    gtcoogee,

    Pricing is still kind of a work in process and will likely be at least somewhat determined by what the market will bear as well as how much the device will cost to make - with some manuf volume. Right now, the guess is somewhere between $35k - $60k but also possible to have a lease option. There is a consumable - disposable, one-time use end cap - that right now is expected to sell for $10 and where most of the margin will be.
    Jun 6, 2013. 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rockwell Steadies Itself For A Phase III Run-Up [View article]
    The study results announced in Feb (which you cite as Ph II) was the non-FDA PRIME (marketing study). PRIME was not the CRUISE-related Phase II study. In fact the Ph IIb FDA study failed to hit the primary efficacy endpoint (at some doses it wasn't even close). Given that Ph IIb was unsuccessful, I think a biq question remains whether Phase III will be successful.
    I also question the assumption that Calcitriol will significantly boost revenues if launched. While that's certainly been mnmgt's spin, it'll be met with ton's of competition if and when it actually gets on the market.
    And finally, the pundits of RMTI like to talk about the $50MM in current revenue, but don't like to talk about how that business is so low margin it's almost useless.
    I agree, however, that if SFP fails, RMTI is probably dead in the water.
    May 22, 2013. 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Drivers Spur A Significant Inflection Point For iCAD [View article]
    Well written and informative article.
    ICAD is not a pump and dump scheme like the one commenter implies. Seems like a ridiculous allegation from someone that clearly doesn't know the company.
    Jan 17, 2013. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pernix Therapeutics' Impressive Q3 [View article]
    Pernix management has an excellent track record of doing thorough due diligence before pulling the trigger on any new deals. They've likely looked at this co-pro deal from all angles - making sure it makes sense from a financial return perspective as well as ensuring it fits with their culture and business model.

    An example is Brovex, a line of drugs they bought in August 2009 for $450k and which has generated $16 million in sales for Pernix.

    Expect if this new co-pro deal goes through that Pernix believes it will be accretive almost overnight.
    Nov 17, 2010. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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