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Brian McMorris  

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  • Monster Has Entered The Stratosphere [View article]
    Josh, You might be right about $MNST in the long run, using rational valuation pricing models like DCF. However, once a company gains "momentum" or "story" status, DCF or earnings-growth methods no longer work. The market is not rational and you are applying rational metrics to a very hot "story" name.

    I have used DCF and BV methods of valuation for years and normally been disappointed in the results. It requires a great deal of patience to use rational valuation methods and sometimes, by the time such techniques would work (5-10 years), the company story changes and earnings slows or decreases. For examle, even with great earnings and growth INTC and MSFT were dead money for over 10 years before they finally got traction last year

    Momentum has been most popular for stock pricing the past 20 years with only a few short years where it did not work. Momentum worked in 1995-2000, 2003-2007 and 2009 till current. Low price to value worked only in the 2001-03 and 2008 period and then, not very well. Momentum with tight stops seems to be a much more effective way to invest in the stock market, unfortunately for those of us who wish pricing were rational.

    There is a simple Wall Street saying to capture this: "Price is Truth"
    Feb 19, 2015. 10:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    DAR....I will continue to hold you accountable for the writings you post. I am absolutely sure you will NOT keep quiet and will respond to entertain us all again. You are not a quiet nor calm person
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    Brand new management in 2012 and a team with decades of combined energy / oil experience in all kinds of markets. Management is not left over from trust days as you say.
    Feb 18, 2015. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    Dividend was recently reduced to $0.03/share for $0.12/annum. It is no longer 18% but more like 5% at today's stock price
    Feb 18, 2015. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    You mean like dar43054?
    Feb 18, 2015. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    Excellent point Hendrick that I was going to make. Why would the insiders who have bought millions of shares at $3-12 make all that equity worthless with a restructuring? Makes no sense at all. They have no incentive to pursue that angle when there are so many other options

    Yes, there have been insiders in the past who took big debt positions at the time of restructuring to wipe out shareholders and then convert their debt back to equity later on when the company is healthy. That COULD happen. But those people are real Wall Street wheeler-dealer slimeballs (Ron Perelman comes to mind). The insider crew owning PWE do not share that profile.
    Feb 18, 2015. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    Cashewking....you don't recall because there weren't any regarding the price of oil. I checked DAR's comment history to make sure. Only incorrect forecasts regarding lawsuits due to the accounting issues.
    Feb 18, 2015. 11:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    Nawar....thanking you for adding another well-informed voice to the discussion on PWE. Where have you been? Most on SA that comment on PWE are bears with an agenda who do not provide informed opinion, but rather "fear monger" or generally distort the facts. A few of us are long and seem the better informed in the oil industry and accounting (Yeo, Tennvol, Blair and now you). The rest are newbies to the story trying to sort out the truth. I have been in PWE (or its predecessor, Petrofund) for over 15 years, though cut way back in 2008) so know the stories quite well. I ramped back up when Roberts took over as CEO as he seems to have a good idea how to manage the great assets of PWE. It has been a good test for me. Your comments are quite welcome.
    Feb 18, 2015. 11:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    PWE is by far the cheapest mid-size oil stock in the world on a BV / $$ basis or any way one wants to slice BV (BBL/day, P+P, etc). It will bounce the most now that the operational overhang from 12-24 months ago has been resolved.
    Feb 18, 2015. 11:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    Hope you enjoy losing money Keuibiko. PWE is not an attractive short as it is very well run. Your short bet is a bet against oil and that is quite a gamble. It is likely that Saudi got what it wants by reducing global supply 2-3MM BBLs. Supply is now in balance with demand. There is a decent chance demand goes higher if the EU deval improves the economy there and China also devals helping its own economy (in process). There is also a decent chance supply goes lower with war in the ME spinning out of control. Saudi does not want $20 oil and has the ability to get the price it wants. PWE will survive at prices over $50, even over $40. I lightened a little on the bounce with stock bought well lower. We will see where it goes from here.
    Feb 18, 2015. 11:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    Dar....you did no such thing. Don't be disingenuous and a revisionist. You never made a call on the oil market in July (which would have been an excellent insight) but pounded the table for alternative oil investments to PWE (would have killed your clients as effectively as owning PWE). Instead, you were hammering on PWE for poor management (current team) and forecasting gloom and doom of PWE's own making (bookkeeping audit and lawsuits), which never happened. Fail.

    Here is what you said on July 30: "This is only the first shoe to drop. There are at least two more to go. The second one IMO is that given the areas of concern and the amounts and categories, at least the last 4 years worth of tax returns will have to be amended, which is likely going to incur higher tax payments along with penalties and interest. The third one IMO is the rash of lawsuits coming. These are going to drain much needed resources. We'll have to wait and see if there is any E&O insurance applicable to this situation."
    Feb 18, 2015. 11:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Sensitivity Analysis [View article]
    NSG....around 10,000 shares including calls and puts not executed and this is well less than 1% of my portfolio at the current value. No big deal for me. I have more than offset my losses with gains on other shares the past six months. My wife is quite happy with my performance in the market. I manage my risk

    Anyone with a diversified portfolio had energy exposure going into 2014. It would have been around 10-15% if proportional to the SP500. My exposure was never that high and so I have lost less than most. Canadian Oilsands is down 71%, BTE (one of your favorites) down 67%, Denbury down 63%, Continental Resources down 80%, Halcon resources down 81%, Oasis down 77%, Transocean down 64% and on and on.

    Why again am I supposed to feel so bad? because I don't.
    Jan 26, 2015. 11:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Sensitivity Analysis [View article]
    Hey NSG, how are those lawsuits against PWE working out for you? One of your many inaccurate observations. Haven't heard a peep about lawsuits for a couple of months now. Guess that was just another smoke screen.

    What would be nice is if you would admit your lousy analysis (if it is that) was bailed out by an unforseen crash in oil prices. Unless you were hanging out with the Saudi princes, I am not sure how you would have known that was coming. No one else did, not even the CEOs of the biggest oil companies in the world. But then again, maybe that is why you think you are great.

    You will get credit when you earn it
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Penn West Survive 2015? [View article]
    DVL....I would never use WikiInvestor as a site for my research. Who knows where that data comes from there is no accountability. I use the company site, which references its regulatory filings, or the regulator site itself (SEC EDGAR or the Canadian regulatory site, SEDAR).

    The $600M in formal income losses for the past 12 months includes the $663M "kitchen sink" quarter in 2013-Q4 when the new management flushed the toilet. That is not something that can be extrapolated. Instead, if the first three Qs of 2014 are added together and extrapolated to a fourth quarter, income is flat. But if you really research PWE, you will know they are very aggressive in writing down their depreciable assets and so income is really not meaningful. The negative net income numbers are likewise meaningless in this industry which is very capital intensive (with capex a balance sheet entry) and therefore has continuous and significant asset depreciation leading to frequent losses. This is true for the peers of PWE.

    Instead, look at FFO (funds flow from operations), which is the important metric in the O&G industry. This shows around $1.1B in operating cash flow for the past 12 months. It will be hit hard in Q4 no doubt, but provides a much better insight. Free cash flow is another important metric. It is basically FFO less annual capex. It was positive in 2013 and 2014.

    Total debt on the Barrons page you sent shows $2.46B, but that is for 2013. This company has been aggressively paying down debt and it is now around $1.7B US. The latest Q3 filing will show a higher number but they closed the sale of property in October that will show up in the Q4 filings.
    Jan 25, 2015. 09:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Sensitivity Analysis [View article]
    It is all he has got, Jim. For a "Great CFA" he never offers an ounce of honest and documented analysis.
    Jan 25, 2015. 05:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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