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Brian Nelson

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  • The Real Reason Why Moats Matter - It May Surprise You [View article]
    Hi Buyandhold 2012,

    Thank you for your comment and contribution. Here is an excerpt from my e-book regarding the 13 most important steps to understand the market:

    "2) There is No Long Term. The financial industry loves long-term investors. And rightfully so for them: there is lower flight risk of your assets if you are a long-term investor. It just sounds so good, too: "investing for the long term." And so innocent! Yet, it is one of the stock market's biggest fallacies. Long-term investing is not leaving your assets in one place for a long time, but instead, it is considering the long-term earnings and cash flow of a company in your investment analysis. At any point in time, for example, the stock price of a company will always be based on the expectations of future earnings and cash flow. In 10 years, the stock price of the company will still be based on expectations of future earnings and cash flow at that time. We, as investors, will never reach the long term -- there is no long term, even as we say that all of the value of any asset today is based on expectations of its future earnings and cash flow over the long term. Please understand that this concept is much different than the saying that "in the long-term, we are all dead" -- coined by John Maynard Keynes, which means that the long term isn't as important as the short run for decision-making. The long term does matter, and in almost all cases, it is more important than the short term. But what I'm saying in Step 2 is that stock prices will always be based on current expectations of future earnings and cash flow over the long term (at any point in time in the future). There is no magic switch 10 years from now that will change the market from a discount mechanism of future earnings and cash flow to a precise mechanism that translates earnings one-to-one from the company to the shareholder. Trust me, it will not happen. If it does, the stock market will no longer be a market (it will be some pass-through entity). Long-term investing is based on analyzing the long-term dynamics of a business and making a stand that at some point other investors will drive the stock toward your intrinsic value estimate (over the long haul). It does not mean that all of a sudden the company will be valued differently because we're now 10 years into the future. Or that the stock price will be higher 10 years from now because earnings have expanded. If you're willing to hold a stock for 10 years, it is very simple: you could have a winner or loser (or something in between). The difference is expectations of future earnings of these companies 10 years in the future. Let's try this example. Many investors may consider 2050 to be the long term. But the value of a stock in 2050 will be based on the market's expectations of the company's future earnings and cash flow in 2050 and over a "new" long term, not from today through 2050. In this and every example, the long term will remain elusive -- always in the future and never attainable. Key takeaway: The core of stock investing will always be based on expectations of future earnings and cash flow at any point in time in the future. There is no long term."

    Thanks for reading.

    Brian
    Apr 29 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Why Moats Matter - It May Surprise You [View article]
    Thanks Dr. Joseph Haluska,

    I appreciate the comment!

    Kind regards,

    Brian
    Apr 29 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Strength Is Undeniable: Look At The Supply Chain [View article]
    Hi healthythoughts and nicholas,

    Thank you for reading! I appreciate the comment.

    Brian
    Apr 24 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Abbott To Raise Its 2014 Outlook Soon [View article]
    Thank you all for your reading! I appreciate your comments. Valuentum's reports on Abbott and Baxter can be found at the following links (there are pdf icons in the top right corner):

    http://bit.ly/QEWESn

    http://bit.ly/QEWESp

    Please let me know if I can be of further assistance.

    Brian
    Apr 23 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ideas For This High-Risk Market Environment [View article]
    Thanks for the comment Villi. The discounted cash-flow model is an indispensable tool, but it should always be backed up by a rigorous relative value assessment and a keen eye towards the timeliness of any idea. This focus results in the Valuentum Buying Index. I've pasted a link to it below:

    http://bit.ly/viu9MH

    Thank you for reading!

    Brian
    Apr 12 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ideas For This High-Risk Market Environment [View article]
    Hi Varan,

    Thank you for the question. Valuentum makes its track record available on its website.

    http://www.valuentum.com

    We appreciate the comment! Hope you may come visit.

    Kind regards,

    Brian
    Apr 12 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Must Know This About REITs [View article]
    Morgan,

    Thanks for the comment. I appreciate it!

    Kind regards,

    Brian
    Apr 11 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Must Know This About REITs [View article]
    Emerald,

    Thank you for the compliment. I wish you the very best.

    Brian
    Apr 11 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Must Know This About REITs [View article]
    rrs2205rrs,

    Thank you for reading and the comment!

    Brian
    Apr 9 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Dividend Growth Giants Shed Assets: Dividend-Positive Moves [View article]
    sneaker1404,

    Thank you for the comment. We like to evaluate a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, its relative valuation and its timeliness in arriving at a Valuentum Buying Index rating. I have pasted a link that walks through the process:

    http://bit.ly/viu9MH

    Please let me know if I can be of any further assistance.

    Kind regards,

    Brian
    Apr 4 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Dividend Growth Giants Shed Assets: Dividend-Positive Moves [View article]
    Hi NV_GARY,

    Thank you so much for commenting. I appreciate your interest. Our fair value ranges are set to capture a reasonable probable range of fair value outcomes. We think there is incredible upside with respect to GE's shares, and while we think shares of JNJ are trading at a fair price, we like its dividend quite a bit. Please let me know if I can be of any further assistance.

    Kind regards,

    Brian
    Apr 3 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: SEC Sees Smoke... But Is There Fire? [View article]
    On behalf of the Valuentum Team, thank you for reading.

    Brian
    Jul 9 07:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Clorox's Dividend Is Not As Healthy As You Think [View article]
    Thank you all for reading!

    On behalf of the Valuentum Team,

    Brian
    Jul 9 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Still Needs To Get Punished For Us To Get Interested [View article]
    Thank you very much for asking. Per you request, we make available the performance of our Best Ideas portfolio and our cost-basis in Apple at the following link:

    http://bit.ly/16nOa2B

    For more information about the performance of our Best Ideas portfolio, please click the following link:

    http://bit.ly/15mt0mQ

    Thank you again for bringing this up. We like it when we have the opportunity to showcase our performance.

    Kind regards,

    Brian
    Jul 9 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Still Needs To Get Punished For Us To Get Interested [View article]
    Thank you for reading!

    On behalf of the Valuentum Team,

    Brian
    Jul 9 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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