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Brian Nelson

 
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  • Why Lorillard's Dividend Growth Potential Is Excellent [View article]
    Hi zlzhao22,

    That is a very good point. Cigarette consumption in the US has been falling for years. However, the pricing growth on this unfortunate "addictive" product has profound positive implications on the profitability and cash flows of tobacco firms. Here is a link to additional information about LO and its peers:

    http://bit.ly/wdmqbP

    Thank you for reading.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc.
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Oct 12, 2012. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuentum's Outlook For The Market [View article]
    Thanks for reading. Our team is available for any questions at info@valuentum.com.

    About Our Best Ideas Newsletter:

    http://bit.ly/t66118

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc
    brian@valuentum.com
    Oct 5, 2012. 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Risks Of Residential/Mortgage REITs Are Too Many [View article]
    Hi Phiipsonh:

    Everyone will have an opinion. The most important thing is to find the informed one and the one you can trust. This is often easier than you might think.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research & ETF Analysis
    Valuentum Securities, Inc.
    brian@valuentum.com

    http://www.valuentum.com
    info@valuentum.com
    Sep 23, 2012. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Teekay Is Overvalued And Its Dividend Is Not Safe [View article]
    Hi Skip,

    Long-time no speak. I believe the last time we spoke we walked through Morningstar's DCF valuation model and its many variants. We think we have a more robust DCF process at Valuentum, and we think the benefits of free cash flow analysis are many!

    Love to catch up, and hope you are doing well.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc
    brian@valuentum.com
    Sep 11, 2012. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Halliburton Has Upside To The Mid-$40s [View article]
    Thank you for reading our team's take on Halliburton.

    For individuals and financial advisors, we're here for you:

    http://bit.ly/Aa1f31

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Sep 5, 2012. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Don't Think SeaDrill's Dividend Is Sustainable [View article]
    Yes, debt is the major concern, as reflected in our Dividend Cushion score (which considers the company's net debt position). The firm is heavily dependent on the capital markets to maintain its dividend payout over the long haul.

    Thank you for reiterating this point.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc.
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Aug 30, 2012. 04:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Don't Think SeaDrill's Dividend Is Sustainable [View article]
    We are currently evaluating the batting average of the Dividend Cushion. We think it's greatest value to the individual investor is highlighting the risk related to the divident, and letting the individual investor decide whether that risk is appropriate to take on, given the company's yield.

    For perspective, in SuperValu's case, the Valuentum Dividend Cushion was -10. In JC Penney's case, the Valuentum Dividend score was 0.9. SeaDrill falls within this range.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc.
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Aug 30, 2012. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Don't Think SeaDrill's Dividend Is Sustainable [View article]
    Pasted below is the simple construct of the Valuentum Dividend Cushion for SeaDrill:

    Net Debt Position: {[Total Cash ($739) - Total Debt ($8,574)] + 5yr sum of FCF ($7,870)]}/{5yr sum of dividend payments ($9,302) = 0.0037 -- rounded to 0.

    We use the year-end balance sheet numbers from last year as we phase in future free cash flow generated from this year (to avoid double counting). We do not forecast the dividend payment to increase in coming years in our calculation, and we assume modest share count growth to keep the firm's cash position from going in the red.

    We make this valuable ratio available for all companies in our coverage universe. The higher the ratio the better.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc.
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Aug 30, 2012. 04:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Don't Think SeaDrill's Dividend Is Sustainable [View article]
    Thank you for reading our article.

    Our analysts create a three stage free cash flow to the firm model to arrive at an intrinsic value estimate for the 1,000+ companies in our coverage universe.

    As it relates to SDRL, the construct of our Valuentum Dividend Cushion is the following: we take the firm's net debt position and add our forecasts for future free cash during the next five years and divide that sum by expected future dividend payments during the next five years. The resulting number is 0 -- meaning future free cash flows generated during the next five years are expected to approximately equal its debt load. SeaDrill's excessive financial leverage (read debt) is the primary reason for the poor score.

    Though such analysis doesn't mean a dividend cut is imminent, it does raise a number of red flags. Either the firm will have to see a tremendous increase in profitability relative to expectations or it will have to access the equity or debt markets to support such a high payout (over the long haul). The key time horizon is over the long haul. Both cash-raising outcomes are plausible, but nonetheless, the risk of a dividend cut over the long haul is certainly elevated relative to other firms. Our Valuentum Dividend Cushion has recently predicted the cuts at SuperValu and JC Penney, and we make such a score available for all companies in our coverage universe.

    We consider firms that have a Valuentum Dividend Cushion above 1.25 as comfortably being able to cover their dividends with future free cash flow generated (after considering the company's net balance sheet impact). If interested, you can read more about our Dividend Cushion at the following link:

    http://bit.ly/wThfGP

    Thanks again for reading.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Aug 30, 2012. 03:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Advanced Micro Devices Has Valuation Upside To $10 Per Share [View article]
    Hi ephud,

    We provide an unbiased, objective view on the company and its valuation. Those that have "skin in the game" run the risk of biases creeping into their analysis for financial gain.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Aug 29, 2012. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Think Microsoft Is Extremely Underpriced [View article]
    Hi guys,

    Our complete research suite on Microsoft, including topics that you have raised above, can be found at the following link:

    http://bit.ly/UaWmPW

    Regarding our stock-selection track record, pasted below is a link that walks through it:

    http://bit.ly/KVf6Q1

    Thanks for reading.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Aug 29, 2012. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiffany Struggles But Its Outlook Isn't That Grim [View article]
    Hi Paul,

    Our fair value estimates and VBI ratings can be found on our website (login required). Our fair value estimate is $67, and the firm registers a 3 on our Valuentum Buying Index. We were hoping you might come to visit us to find out.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Aug 29, 2012. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Think Microsoft Is Extremely Underpriced [View article]
    Thank you for reading. Our analyst team is available for any questions at analysts@valuentum.com.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc.
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Aug 29, 2012. 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners: Potential Future Unit Issuance Supports Distribution [View article]
    Hi Kidshelleen51,

    As you point out, when ETP reaches valuation extremes, above $60 (overvalued), under $36 (undervalued), there is a very high probability that we are correct in our overvalued and undervalued assessments. Though a tighter margin of safety could be argued, the firm's dependence on the healthy functioning of capital markets and the range that you have provided reinforce the current fair value estimate range. The value of the analysis rests in knowing what the fair value range of a company is, because many fall outside of theirs (which creates opportunity). In Energy Transfer Partners' case, the company's share price falls within our fair value range.

    Thanks for reading.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc.
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Aug 26, 2012. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners: Potential Future Unit Issuance Supports Distribution [View article]
    Hi Phillip,

    We can arrange a call on the topic. I think you bring up some good points, but we don't view any as material to our calculation of the company's intrinsic value, which is based on future cash flows generated.

    Kind regards,

    Brian Nelson, CFA
    President, Equity Research
    Valuentum Securities, Inc.
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Aug 26, 2012. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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149 Comments
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