Brian Nichols'  Instablog

Weight Loss Drugs

America's obesity problem may finally have a safe and efficient drug(s) to enter and reap the benefits of a multi-billion dollar industry, and both Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) and Vivus (VVUS) look poised to benefit. Its been a long time since we've seen an FDA approved weight loss drug hit the market, and in 2012 we could very well see two drugs become FDA approved. But will these two drugs become a boom or bust..... only time will tell so until then we can only speculate.

On Friday shares of Arena popped 73.77% after the FDA panel supported its drug, and shares of Vivus traded higher by nearly 9% as analysts reiterated its drug as the primary choice. Overall, the market is big enough for both drugs to rack in billions. Therefore, neither company's market cap is what I consider overvalued. Both will be interesting next week and highly watched. Back when VVUS got the nod its shares popped as well, and it traded higher in the day following its large pop. So watch ARNA on Monday, because it may add to its already monster gains of 130% last week.

Battle of the Losers

Both Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) and Fossil (FOSL) were two of the hardest hit stocks following earnings this season. Neither has recovered from devastating loss, although...................

Click Here To Finish Reading The Article On NicholsToday.com

Disclosure: I am long IMUC.OB, DLTR.

Over the last week I have been busy trying to reorganize my portfolio with a number of value presenting plays. On March 12 I updated my holdings and have been relatively quiet, but have made some recent changes. I have not added any additional holdings but I have sold a few and invested the money to make other positions larger. First, let's look at the positions I recently decided to sell:

ROYL

I alerted investor via twitter (@bnichols9883) back in late March that ROYL could very well trade lower, like it did in Feb 2011 when it also traded with large gains. The trend that led to ROYL's large gains was very similar. Therefore, I was able to sell the stock for a very nice gain and get out before it nose dived. This completely exits me from the energy space, a sector with few stocks that I believe are worth owning.

TPX

TPX is a stock that I have held for years, but recently sold due to my beliefs that its bull trend could come to an end. TPX was one of the better performing stocks YTD and was at all-time highs. I felt its earnings were beating expectations by lower margins and that it was due for a pullback. I had been trimming my position throughout 2011 but finally exited the entire position in April

DISH

I bought DISH with AAPL back around the new year after selling my largest holding GOOG. The stock performed decent and I was able to sell at 32, but I don't believe my outlook for Blockbuster will ever come true. Therefore, I sold the entire position

DLTR

DLTR was the fourth largest holding in my portfolio, and a stock I've held for many years. It has returned incredible gains, but I made the choice to sell the stock because I believe there are other stocks presenting more value.

MA & AAPL

AAPL is my largest position and MA is my third largest. But on Wednesday I cut both positions in half as MA reached new highs and AAPL destroyed earnings. I believe both stocks still have incredible upside, but I feel there are better opportunities.

Positions Added

As you can see I have exited my position in four stocks with one being my fourth largest holding. And I cut MA and AAPL in half which were two stocks with positions that nearly doubled all others in my portfolio. Therefore, they are both large positions but not nearly as large as they once were in my portfolio. With the proceeds from my sales I evenly distributed it into 5 stocks that were already in my portfolio. And I also increased one of my smaller positions by $7,000 with bank money.

XPO

(XPO) is now the largest holding in my portfolio. It was the second largest but now I believe more than ever that this company will achieve greatness in the near future. Its return has been incredible to my personal portfolio but with Jacobs now having more money than originally anticipated and all pieces of the puzzle being in place I expect great returns from this company.

My next largest positions are very close between (F), (SPPI), (S), (ALU), (AAPL), and (MA). The 6 stocks are almost perfectly divided based on their current price. I felt that Ford's, Sprint's, and ALU's recent loss was too good of an opportunity not to buy more shares.

Ford offers security in a growing industry. I believe it has a two year upside of 60% which is more than I believe AAPL and MA have during the same period.

SPPI is one of my favorites and is trading at particularly low levels. The stock could possibly fall or remain volatile over the short-term but I believe it could become a multi-billion dollar company in the next five years.

Both S and ALU are improving its business and becoming more efficient. Both companies are trading particularly lower over the last year but are performing much better. I think both have tremendous upside.

My unchanged positions include (HOG), (ZAGG), (GALE), and (JVA). I purchased $7,000 of additional shares in (IMUC.OB) because I believe the second half of the year could be quite special for the company. It has the best results of any company in the space and is developing a transcendent technology along with presenting data at ASCO, and could very well be announcing an AMEX listing in the coming weeks. Overall, it has a lot of potential!!

AAPL
XPO
MA
DLTR
F
SPPI
S
DISH
ALU
TPX
ROYL
HOG
ZAGG
IMUC.OB
GALE
JVA

Stocks recently sold include: CAT, KR, and LULU

This portfolio is perhaps the riskiest portfolio that I have held in any period over the last five years. I have eliminated all but three stocks that return a yield, and am concentrating on value. I have sold LLY, DUK, GLW, CHD and T which all have yield and sold small cap stocks COOL and ACUR but will maybe buyback at a later time. I have also sold all but one of my energy holdings as I believe energy will be volatile throughout the election.