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Brian Sanders

 
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  • Who's Ready For $30 Oil? [View article]
    Interesting thought hhmiles...reasonable explanation.
    Nov 24, 2014. 01:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Where It Is Darkest: When Company, Country, Currency And Commodity Risk Collide! [View article]
    This is EXACTLY what I was discussing with a few other investors on a separate forum...the crux is iron ore prices and given oversupply is unrelenting i'm not sure how the author can value the business at $19-20. The target I provided was based on a foreseeable cyclical move in China's demand (the interest rate cut helps this), so we could see prices revert toward the ~$80 area overtime. Pair that with operational improvements outlined by mgmt/analysts, we can reach a reasonable $14 price target over a few years.

    His valuation on the other hand is asking for iron ore prices to rebound $30 or more...good luck with that.

    P.S. "Look at Vale recent quarter - a drop of 80% in underlying earnings, while iron ore kept on declining after quarter end." this was related to other facts other than iron ore prices...like one time expenses.
    Nov 23, 2014. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box Ships Inc.: Net Asset Value Represents 111% Upside [View article]
    It's not a simple buyout because it's a Greek company, it's operating in a currently poor industry, and institutions are probably overlooking it. There are plenty of net net businesses that get ignored. We'll see what happens.

    Long TEU
    Nov 23, 2014. 05:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Where It Is Darkest: When Company, Country, Currency And Commodity Risk Collide! [View article]
    Cheaper but riskier imho. I own VALE and recently wrote about it: http://seekingalpha.co...

    The thing with PBR is that the gov't has more involvement, the economics are weaker, it's far below cash flow break-even, the debt load is huge, return metrics and margins are lower, management is possibly corrupt, etc.
    Nov 22, 2014. 02:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Below: A Growth Retailer Revisited [View article]
    Hi borisb, thanks for commenting.
    Yeah I actually just took notice of FIVE again, nice momentum. Given the story hasn't changed much between now and a few years ago, it looks slightly expensive here. I personally wouldn't add to the position despite that a breakout traditionally warrants further risk exposure from a technical perspective.
    Possibly take advantage of the retail beta like you mention...sell some at $45 and repurchase at a lower price.
    Nov 20, 2014. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Sorry Bulls, No More Sane Buyers Left [View article]
    Okay well to clear up the confusion, I am talking about the growth multiples, not the stock prices. Sincerely hope you understand now.
    Nov 19, 2014. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Sorry Bulls, No More Sane Buyers Left [View article]
    Okay Macmoose, it's really sad that I have to say this, but scroll up 3 comments and you will see my explanation. If you don't understand why I am saying then please refrain from posting. I shouldn't even be responding to comments such as these.
    Nov 19, 2014. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Sorry Bulls, No More Sane Buyers Left [View article]
    GMCR does have a decent roic figure though. I just ran through the last four years in excel and it seems to average around 14% or so...which def outweighs wacc. So they are certainly generating reasonable value.
    Nov 19, 2014. 01:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Sorry Bulls, No More Sane Buyers Left [View article]
    Hey Ketul, thanks for the thoughtful reply and added value. Glad to see our views aligned.

    Einhorn and Tilson had a right to short this company back in 2011, but they simply refused to cover even when it was trading at <10x ev/ebitda. The thesis behind shorting is pretty simple, you should only short sell where you think market players are no longer willing to buy/hold a position...if something is so overpriced (practically obvious to the broader market), THAT is your safety net. Sadly Einhorn just covered a couple weeks ago. You can't blame him with the heavy losses, but it seems we are practically back to the other end of the spectrum once again.
    Nov 19, 2014. 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Sorry Bulls, No More Sane Buyers Left [View article]
    Basic math would tell you otherwise (77*2=154 =/= 166), but this is my issue:

    While these two businesses are not entirely comparable (they are competitors however), there is a complete misalignment in earnings multiples. Both are expected to grow EPS at the nearly the same rate, with GMCR experiencing slight acceleration thereafter and SBUX slight deceleration. Does that justify one being twice as expensive as another? Because I would argue that Starbucks has much greater qualitative characteristics and a more sustainable lt moat. That is a fundamental discrepancy that the market fails to realize...so to feed into your market cap thought...I think SBUX has a justified market cap whereas GMCR not so much, at least for the time being. Investors are rushing in because it has the Coke name attached. Either way, as I have stated before, it seems people are claiming too much risk here.

    Hopefully you will retract your "rookie" comment...anyways have a good one.
    Nov 19, 2014. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Sorry Bulls, No More Sane Buyers Left [View article]
    Hi AncientGeek,

    Thanks for sharing and providing a realistic assessment.

    Regards,
    Nov 18, 2014. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Sorry Bulls, No More Sane Buyers Left [View article]
    Hi James,

    Appreciate the information you provided. We'll see where it goes. Thanks for the kind words.
    Nov 18, 2014. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Sorry Bulls, No More Sane Buyers Left [View article]
    Hi Seth,

    To be fair the only thing we can use are management's, analysts', and our own educated estimates. Common ground is between $4.03 and $4.13 for earnings power but that is if everything pan's out properly. The message here is that it's just too pricey, at least for me anyways. The industry is expected to grow between 14-17% annualized for the next 5 years..
    Nov 18, 2014. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Sorry Bulls, No More Sane Buyers Left [View article]
    Hi BD,
    I wasn't aware that it was 16% but I knew about the whole partnering ordeal...I felt that it has already been discussed thoroughly in previous articles, hence why I didn't detail it...but the market seems to be pricing it accordingly. The point that i'm trying to convey here is that investors are not buying the equity with any real margin of safety at $157. Peter Lynch is the king of GARP type businesses - typically he tried to avoid hot stocks in hot industries, I think that methodology would apply here.
    If you are long, best of luck.
    Nov 18, 2014. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leidos Holdings: Not Cheap Enough [View article]
    Sorry to hear that...but i'm glad you remain interested in my work. I guess I was being a little to conservative looking for an entrance around the $29-31 area but preservation of capital is top priority. Keep in mind I didn't say the stock was overvalued at $35, it just wasn't overly compelling within that range. Besides the recent run up is primarily related to a new executive hiring, not sure if anyone can forecast that...nor do I think he will change the value of the business by more than 14% in a couple weeks. Just my opinion.

    Have a good one.
    Nov 18, 2014. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
790 Comments
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