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Brian Schieble

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  • Sportman's Warehouse - Appeal Increases As The Situation Is Stabilizing [View article]
    High debt isn't really an issue if it's serviceable. They simply would not be able to open 8 new stores a year for the next 5 years if it was truly crushing debt. Their ROIC on new stores is compelling and their stated objective of 25% net income growth is very favorable for investors. Management seems modest and unaggressive, not prone to making stupid moves, like say the situation Conn's has found itself in.

    A significant contraction of the US economy could spell trouble, but otherwise this company seems to be on firm footing.
    Sep 14 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sportsman's Warehouse IPO A Potential Target For Investors [View article]
    Barstow, the town of many gas stations? What wouldn't close there?
    Sep 9 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Warnings For Those Seeking Demand Growth Stories [View article]
    I see very little wrong with CAP right now, seems poised to deliver a safe 20%. Better to find the stories after they've been given an irrational drubbing by the market.
    Sep 8 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products: A-FLOP Or A-POP? [View article]
    If growth is one of your reasons for owning a stock shouldn't you then at least be playing through some scenarios about potential EPS numbers in the next 2-3-idk 5 years?

    If it's producing $1.00 EPS now and only adds .25 EPS normalized a year by the end of five years, it's making 1.25 EPS (roughly 22 million dollars), 15x that is 333 million valuation, now assume they made $1.00-$1.25 EPS for the previous four years, tack on roughly 40 million on the balance sheet and assume no share dilution or repurchase. You've got a 333 million dollar business, add the cash it's probably around 400 million valuation.

    That's where these $23.00 price targets are coming from. That's if it's only doing $1.25 EPS in five years. Now what if it's doing $1.50?

    It's the optimistic scenario. Shorts have the double advantage of potential cyclical downturn in AFOP's business in the medium term and also the very real possibility of a plunge in overall equity prices in the short term.
    Aug 5 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products: Quantitatively Cheap, But Qualitatively Questionable [View article]
    Honestly I'd much rather them increase the dividend on a steady upward path with earnings in parallel. Extremely modest buybacks aren't going to make a dent in EPS numbers. One time special dividends when cash is in excess of need would be great.

    Take a $9 million chunk for example. Spend that all right now at this PPS, you'll remove ~600k shares. You'll increase EPS 3-4% or something lousy like that.

    Now take $9 million and do a dividend. That's almost 50 cents a share. I'd take that over the former in a heart beat.
    Aug 4 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SWOT-Ing The BlackBerry Passport [View article]
    You get my vote for the most excessively odd post I've read in months.
    Aug 3 10:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products: Quantitatively Cheap, But Qualitatively Questionable [View article]
    He still owns 8.5% of the company and has very real interest in it's success.

    Reducing the share count by 10% of the float would require a 1/3 of the war chest at this point. It drops to 8-10 in the next 6 months maybe they do repurchase some shares. Right now it's not worth it.

    Do we know if Chang has ever sold shares before?
    Aug 3 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products: Quantitatively Cheap, But Qualitatively Questionable [View article]
    Selling a quarter of your shares at close to a momentary all time peak in share price isn't exactly a dumb thing to do if you were Peter Chang. If he wasn't rich before he is now, with more coming down the road.
    Aug 3 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products - Bargain Valuations After Recent Plunge [View article]
    The thing is with that is all it takes is one to three maximum small firms taking a short position on this company before the short interest is this high, could one to three smallish firms be foolish? You damn right they all could be. Index funds beat the managers 90% of the time right? These are talkers, not thinkers, potentially.
    Aug 3 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Has An Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    That is extremely optimistic and I'd be willing to bet completely wrong. Why not tone down the optimism a bit and be rational? How about $10?
    Jul 16 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Has An Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    When it first IPO'd it was immediately obvious how expensive it was and it did not take that long to crater. But right now? Hard to worry about this valuation. Look at their presentation for christ's sake. They're doing a lot of good things. Their comps coming up here will be very favorable. Maybe not long term, but near term this looks like a significant opportunity.
    Jul 11 08:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: $11 Breached - Citron Research Increases Price To $20 [View article]
    Investors must always take care to remember that they likely have a quarter horse mentality on a coal train rolling up hill. BBRY could be at $50 three years from now. With leadership from someone like Chen, who not only sees and understands but acts, it's entirely possible.
    Jul 8 07:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XPO Logistics' CEO Discusses Q1 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Sounds like you should be running sales teams, if you aren't already.
    May 4 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AMD Turnaround Story Remains Intact [View article]
    I don't really think survival is an issue at this point. Not entirely sure on what's a normal profit margin for these chip makers but if they can do anything near INTC's margins they're a value stock even with the LT debt.
    Apr 21 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Transportation Plays That Should Yield Far Larger Returns Than FedEx Following Earnings [View article]
    While I agree with a lot of the stuff you say your conclusions are highly suspect. For one, I think you've got the share count wrong, which is forgiveable because the data is such a !#@$ mess.

    Two, you think it's going to attract "mass hysteria" investing....3PL is about as boring a business as you're going to get. Analysts aren't predicting that their margins will swing wildly once it's all built up and sometimes it's 12% and sometimes it's 4%. It'll probably be 4-5%. The numbers are easily extractable, thus less potential for "mass hysteria" valuations. The market can be very irrational, but you've got to understand the circumstances that bring that about.
    Mar 26 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment