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Brian Schieble

 
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  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products: A-FLOP Or A-POP? [View article]
    If growth is one of your reasons for owning a stock shouldn't you then at least be playing through some scenarios about potential EPS numbers in the next 2-3-idk 5 years?

    If it's producing $1.00 EPS now and only adds .25 EPS normalized a year by the end of five years, it's making 1.25 EPS (roughly 22 million dollars), 15x that is 333 million valuation, now assume they made $1.00-$1.25 EPS for the previous four years, tack on roughly 40 million on the balance sheet and assume no share dilution or repurchase. You've got a 333 million dollar business, add the cash it's probably around 400 million valuation.

    That's where these $23.00 price targets are coming from. That's if it's only doing $1.25 EPS in five years. Now what if it's doing $1.50?

    It's the optimistic scenario. Shorts have the double advantage of potential cyclical downturn in AFOP's business in the medium term and also the very real possibility of a plunge in overall equity prices in the short term.
    Aug 5 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products: Quantitatively Cheap, But Qualitatively Questionable [View article]
    Honestly I'd much rather them increase the dividend on a steady upward path with earnings in parallel. Extremely modest buybacks aren't going to make a dent in EPS numbers. One time special dividends when cash is in excess of need would be great.

    Take a $9 million chunk for example. Spend that all right now at this PPS, you'll remove ~600k shares. You'll increase EPS 3-4% or something lousy like that.

    Now take $9 million and do a dividend. That's almost 50 cents a share. I'd take that over the former in a heart beat.
    Aug 4 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SWOT-Ing The BlackBerry Passport [View article]
    You get my vote for the most excessively odd post I've read in months.
    Aug 3 10:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products: Quantitatively Cheap, But Qualitatively Questionable [View article]
    He still owns 8.5% of the company and has very real interest in it's success.

    Reducing the share count by 10% of the float would require a 1/3 of the war chest at this point. It drops to 8-10 in the next 6 months maybe they do repurchase some shares. Right now it's not worth it.

    Do we know if Chang has ever sold shares before?
    Aug 3 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products: Quantitatively Cheap, But Qualitatively Questionable [View article]
    Selling a quarter of your shares at close to a momentary all time peak in share price isn't exactly a dumb thing to do if you were Peter Chang. If he wasn't rich before he is now, with more coming down the road.
    Aug 3 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products - Bargain Valuations After Recent Plunge [View article]
    The thing is with that is all it takes is one to three maximum small firms taking a short position on this company before the short interest is this high, could one to three smallish firms be foolish? You damn right they all could be. Index funds beat the managers 90% of the time right? These are talkers, not thinkers, potentially.
    Aug 3 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Has An Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    That is extremely optimistic and I'd be willing to bet completely wrong. Why not tone down the optimism a bit and be rational? How about $10?
    Jul 16 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Has An Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    When it first IPO'd it was immediately obvious how expensive it was and it did not take that long to crater. But right now? Hard to worry about this valuation. Look at their presentation for christ's sake. They're doing a lot of good things. Their comps coming up here will be very favorable. Maybe not long term, but near term this looks like a significant opportunity.
    Jul 11 08:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: $11 Breached - Citron Research Increases Price To $20 [View article]
    Investors must always take care to remember that they likely have a quarter horse mentality on a coal train rolling up hill. BBRY could be at $50 three years from now. With leadership from someone like Chen, who not only sees and understands but acts, it's entirely possible.
    Jul 8 07:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XPO Logistics' CEO Discusses Q1 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Sounds like you should be running sales teams, if you aren't already.
    May 4 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AMD Turnaround Story Remains Intact [View article]
    I don't really think survival is an issue at this point. Not entirely sure on what's a normal profit margin for these chip makers but if they can do anything near INTC's margins they're a value stock even with the LT debt.
    Apr 21 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Transportation Plays That Should Yield Far Larger Returns Than FedEx Following Earnings [View article]
    While I agree with a lot of the stuff you say your conclusions are highly suspect. For one, I think you've got the share count wrong, which is forgiveable because the data is such a !#@$ mess.

    Two, you think it's going to attract "mass hysteria" investing....3PL is about as boring a business as you're going to get. Analysts aren't predicting that their margins will swing wildly once it's all built up and sometimes it's 12% and sometimes it's 4%. It'll probably be 4-5%. The numbers are easily extractable, thus less potential for "mass hysteria" valuations. The market can be very irrational, but you've got to understand the circumstances that bring that about.
    Mar 26 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Intermolecular Is Starting To Look Oversold [View article]
    This stock is stupid cheap. If they get moving and find some new projects and once these royalties start rolling in give me a break, this name is cheap as it gets.
    Mar 18 08:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife In China Could Be The Ultimate Lesson In Costly Ignorance For Longs [View article]
    Man you're obviously a long, this is going to be a teaching moment for you in your investing life. But you're not in a terrible shape. It's not going to jolt down, but you are wrong and it is going to go down.
    Mar 12 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growlife: Why There's No Stock Like It [View article]
    Crazy bastards buying 40 cent stocks. More power to ya.
    Feb 11 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
41 Comments
19 Likes