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Brian Schieble

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  • Low Risk And Long-Term Success Portfolio Update 2015 [View article]
    Fracking has fundamentally changed the landscape of oil. Methods will become progressively cheaper for extraction, and desperate companies will increase production to fund debt. This is iron ore and metallurgical coal all over again. I honestly can't see it returning to June levels for a long long time.
    Jan 3, 2015. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PBR - Close Your Eyes And Buy [View instapost]
    The farther it goes down the less risky of an asset it is, or so it is said. No one should cry over buying an asset, watching it drop 20%, and within 5 years seeing it double. That's good investing. It might do that within 24 months.

    I agree from a sentiment perspective we probably will see 5's. I see your point. But from a long term view it's just timing, and that is a notoriously inconsistent practice.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: TravelCenters Of America Earnings Are Something You Can Snack On [View article]
    Even with HPT overhang, if this company can earn $1.25 per year or more it's undervalued by at least 30%.
    Nov 24, 2014. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case Against TravelCenters Of America [View article]
    This is a solidly profitable company that will see higher nonfuel revenue due to lower gas prices and capex falling off heavily. If you don't view this equity as undervalued Idk what the hell you're thinking.
    Nov 21, 2014. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DOJ, SEC open Petrobras investigation [View news story]
    So far not so much damage pre-market....erasing double digit billions from it's valuation seems a bit excessive, don't you think?
    Nov 10, 2014. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Reaction To TravelCenters Of America Quarterly Results Makes No Sense [View article]
    A few questions I'd like your opinion on....

    1. Will non-fuel revenues steadily increase to the point where Q1's and Q4's will be predictably profitable going forward.

    2. Assuming no further acquisitions and capex related to that, what EPS number would you project as an average of the next three can be a range because obviously it's not a precise thing. Personally it seems like $1.20 isn't unreasonable.
    Oct 8, 2014. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TransGlobe Energy Is Undervalued [View article]
    Well it's at $5.44 fellas. Which by your logic means good a time as any.
    Oct 8, 2014. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth Financial - Laughably Cheap [View instapost]
    Buying up every share right now would cost you 6.5 billion, for a company projected to make around 750 million a year next year with accelerated earnings going forward in a rising interest rate environment.
    Oct 2, 2014. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth Financial - Laughably Cheap [View instapost]
    The main point here with GNW is the overwhelming reason for the low BV here is the LTC charges and that only represents $2.00 a share in worth at it's maximum charge. It was trading at $18 before the LTC talk.

    How could a major insurer have such horrid underwriting standards across their categories as to justify a .4x BV? That's irrational, man.
    Oct 2, 2014. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macquarie buys the dip in Genworth [View news story]
    Insurers selling at well under BV is free damn money.
    Oct 1, 2014. 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued And Overlooked: CPI Aero [View article]
    Please be cautious of what appears to be undervalued equity simply because it is lower market capitalizations.....zz... conventional thinking..........
    Sep 29, 2014. 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sportman's Warehouse - Appeal Increases As The Situation Is Stabilizing [View article]
    High debt isn't really an issue if it's serviceable. They simply would not be able to open 8 new stores a year for the next 5 years if it was truly crushing debt. Their ROIC on new stores is compelling and their stated objective of 25% net income growth is very favorable for investors. Management seems modest and unaggressive, not prone to making stupid moves, like say the situation Conn's has found itself in.

    A significant contraction of the US economy could spell trouble, but otherwise this company seems to be on firm footing.
    Sep 14, 2014. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sportsman's Warehouse IPO A Potential Target For Investors [View article]
    Barstow, the town of many gas stations? What wouldn't close there?
    Sep 9, 2014. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Warnings For Those Seeking Demand Growth Stories [View article]
    I see very little wrong with CAP right now, seems poised to deliver a safe 20%. Better to find the stories after they've been given an irrational drubbing by the market.
    Sep 8, 2014. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products: A-FLOP Or A-POP? [View article]
    If growth is one of your reasons for owning a stock shouldn't you then at least be playing through some scenarios about potential EPS numbers in the next 2-3-idk 5 years?

    If it's producing $1.00 EPS now and only adds .25 EPS normalized a year by the end of five years, it's making 1.25 EPS (roughly 22 million dollars), 15x that is 333 million valuation, now assume they made $1.00-$1.25 EPS for the previous four years, tack on roughly 40 million on the balance sheet and assume no share dilution or repurchase. You've got a 333 million dollar business, add the cash it's probably around 400 million valuation.

    That's where these $23.00 price targets are coming from. That's if it's only doing $1.25 EPS in five years. Now what if it's doing $1.50?

    It's the optimistic scenario. Shorts have the double advantage of potential cyclical downturn in AFOP's business in the medium term and also the very real possibility of a plunge in overall equity prices in the short term.
    Aug 5, 2014. 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment