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Brian Schieble's  Instablog

Brian Schieble
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Retail investor of five years, fundamentally oriented, short and long investor as cases warrant. Probably characterize my own investing style as aggressive conservative investing with large emphasis on valuation and entry point.
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  • A Few Further Picks For 2015

    Here's a few names that merit consideration upon their stories and are likely good opportunities

    Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ:AAOI) - $10.15

    Sterling Construction (NASDAQ:STRL) - $2.99

    RCS Capital Corporation (NYSE:RCAP) - $10.18

    Cosan (NYSE:CZZ) - $7.85

    Empresas ICA (NYSE:ICA) - $3.52

    Feb 16 5:23 PM | Link | Comment!
  • 2015 Value Stock/Downside Limited Portfolio

    All of these stocks, due to varying circumstances, find themselves near their trough of 2014. Because of this, and their positive fundamental bent, many are ripe for a rebound, and as a portfolio it should do pretty decently. Some of them, like GNW, still seem to have a bit of pain to get through before a bottom is in, but long term there is good reason to believe they'll make significant recoveries and are good choices for a value investor.

    Last Closing Prices as of 1/2/15

    Petrobas (NYSE:PBR) - $6.76

    Genworth Financial (NYSE:GNW) - $8.43

    U.S Silica Holdings (NYSE:SLCA) - $26.51

    CPI Aerostructures (NYSEMKT:CVU) - $10.46

    AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) - $5.97

    Century Communities (NYSE:CCS) - $17.01

    Century Casinos (NASDAQ:CNTY) - $5.00

    Alon Partners (NYSE:ALDW) - $13.80

    Ocwen Financial (NYSE:OCN) - $15.03

    Barrett Business Services (NASDAQ:BBSI) - $26.94

    Jan 03 10:42 AM | Link | Comment!
  • AKS - Good Value With Multiple Forward Catalysts

    I'm sort of mad at myself for not writing this sooner since the call would have looked better in the $5's. This morning AKS ratified a new labor agreement making the Ashland operations more competitive, and the stock is up 10%.

    Still at this point in time AKS presents a good value entry point into the American steel market, in a time when the USA is one of the few bright spots in the world economy. Automotive industry demand for steel is robust, and residential and non-residential building is also projected to increase at a healthy clip.

    The main knock on this company is a high amount of leverage, but the Severstal acquisition actually improved their credit profile and they're looking at 2015-17 as capex light, high cash generation years. So when their next bond maturation comes up, they'll be able to both pay down some of it in a prudent fashion, and roll the debt at a lower rate, making for more earnings power going forward.

    There is also concern over falling steel prices by some of the major investment firms, which if you look at their selling price averages per quarter it seems like a legitimate concern, but the 5 and 10 year outlook for the industry suggests also that both value and tonnage will go up, so a reversion in prices would probably be short lived, and anyway the demand outlook for steel would seem to suggest that may not happen at all.

    All in all, I'd say AKS is set to return to where it was only a few short months ago, at $12. Institutional investors were sold 35 million shares at $9.08 average for the Severstal acquisition, so buying today would be a huge discount to buyers who should generally be considered more sophisticated than the average investor. That alone should convince you half way. Then looking at their investor presentation and the macro backdrop, AKS seems like a good bet.

    Tags: AKS
    Dec 18 8:40 AM | Link | Comment!
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